Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Tappahannock, VA
April 18, 2024 8:57 AM EDT (12:57 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:27 AM Sunset 7:49 PM Moonrise 1:57 PM Moonset 3:14 AM |
ANZ537 Tidal Potomac From Cobb Island To Smith Point- 753 Am Edt Thu Apr 18 2024
Today - NW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tonight - NE winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat - N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat night - N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sun - N winds 5 to 10 kt - .becoming s. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Mon - N winds 5 to 10 kt - .becoming E in the evening, then becoming sw after midnight. Waves 1 ft.
ANZ500 753 Am Edt Thu Apr 18 2024
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay -
a stationary front will linger nearby tonight before a cold front tracks through on Thursday morning. A stronger cold front approaches the region on Friday into Saturday morning. High pressure gradually pushes in from the west by late in the weekend. Small craft advisories may be needed at times from Thursday into the weekend.
a stationary front will linger nearby tonight before a cold front tracks through on Thursday morning. A stronger cold front approaches the region on Friday into Saturday morning. High pressure gradually pushes in from the west by late in the weekend. Small craft advisories may be needed at times from Thursday into the weekend.
Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 181040 AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 640 AM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024
SYNOPSIS
Dry and warm conditions are expected today. A backdoor cold front drops south of the area late this afternoon through tonight, with a stronger cold front crossing the region Friday night. Rain chances increase late Sunday into early Monday as low pressure tracks along a stalled frontal boundary across the Carolinas.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 300 AM EDT Thursday...
Early morning wx analysis shows low pressure located along a frontal boundary over the upper eastern shore/southern DE, while an upper shortwave is passing by just to our north. It is very mild with temps in the 60s due to being in the warm sector south of the low.
The low will move offshore today and will drag a very weak cold front through the are later this morning. Winds turn to the W then NW behind the front but there will be little to no CAA (outside of the MD Ern Shore) through the day. Outside of some low clouds on the MD eastern shore (especially during the morning after the front comes through), skies will average mostly sunny. With downsloping W- NW winds and little in the way of CAA, temperatures will rebound into the lower-mid 80s in most areas by the aftn (with 70s on the eastern shore). Areas along the coast will probably see highs early in the aftn with falling temperatures during the mid-late aftn period as the flow turns onshore as a backdoor cold front arrives from the NE.
That backdoor cold front will pick up speed as it crosses the area from NW-SE from late this aftn-tonight, and am expecting it to move SW of the CWA by late tonight with winds becoming NE area-wide (could actually see some gusts to 25 mph near the coast this evening for a few hours right after the front pushes through). Temps quickly drop into the 50s after the FROPA and forecast lows range from the mid 40s to lower 50s. In addition, low stratus will overspread the entire area overnight with the onshore flow behind the front (although not really expecting much in the way of fog with 5-15 mph winds).
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 300 AM EDT Thursday...
Strong low pressure tracks from the Canadian Prairies to Ontario/Quebec from today-Friday evening, and this will push a stronger cold front toward the region (which will approach from the NW). The backdoor front is progged to retreat during the day on Fri as that stronger cold front approaches. The temperature forecast will depend on how fast that front retreats (and also how quickly the low stratus burns off). Have trended the forecast cooler (especially near the immediate Atlantic coast and on the eastern shore) where temps likely won't get out of the 60s. Temps may struggle to reach 60F on Fri in/near Ocean City. Still think it warms well into the 70s-80F across interior srn VA and NE NC. The greatest amount of uncertainty with respect to temps on Fri is near the RIC Metro/I-64 Corridor (where model solutions range from the 60s to mid 70s).
Rain chances will return, though not until later Friday afternoon.
Rain will be scattered at first before increasing in coverage a bit more after ~8pm. Any chances for thunderstorms will likely be focused across the west/southwest portion of the CWA since the backdoor cold front will be retreating across the east. All of that being said, this is not looking like a major rain event, or even moderate rain for that matter. QPF forecasts are still showing barely .10-.20" in a few spots, though that may even be a stretch.
The front likely moves south of the FA by the middle of Saturday morning, and isolated to perhaps scattered showers will likely linger over the area through that time (and potentially Sat aftn across far SE VA/NE NC...although PoPs are only 20% given the expected lack of coverage). We should see at least partial clearing over the NW 1/3 to 1/2 of the area by Sat aftn as drier air filters in behind the front. As of now, forecast highs Sat are in the upper 60s-lower 70s (although it may be cooler if clouds/showers linger longer than expected...which seems most likely across srn portions of the area).
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 300 AM EDT Thursday...
A stronger shot of CAA arrives Saturday night into Sunday morning.
Low temperatures will dip into the mid 40s. On Sunday, a southern stream low pressure system is progged to move out of the Gulf Coast states and into the Carolinas. The system then deepens offshore Sunday night into Monday. This means that rain chances will return, potentially by Sunday afternoon, and continue Sunday night into Monday. The main forecast challenge lies in figuring out how far north the rain will get, and this will have an impact on high temps Sunday and potentially Monday if light rain lingers near the area on the back side of the system. Forecast highs are in the 60s on both days, but temps will drop into the 50s on Sun once the rain arrives (and won't get out of the 50s on Mon if the rain lingers long enough). Exact details will be worked out in the coming days, but have likely PoPs in far SE VA/NE NC late Sun-Mon AM tapering to slight chance from LKU-SBY. High pressure briefly builds over the area Tue AM before another system brings shower chances to the area by Wednesday. Although it will be cool Tuesday morning, temps should rebound nicely during the day as the high moves offshore and winds become southerly.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 640 AM EDT Thursday...
VFR conditions prevail at this hour except for IFR stratus at SBY. Expect this to persist through ~14z before lifting.
Otherwise, VFR through this evening with dry wx. Expect clear skies outside of FEW-SCT cumulus during the late morning-aftn.
Winds will be NW at 5-10 kt. Then, a backdoor cold front crosses the terminals from NE to SW between 21-03z. Winds become NE at ~10 kt (could see a brief period of 20 kt gusts near the coast) following the FROPA. In addition, MVFR-IFR stratus likely overspreads the entire area tonight/early Fri AM as the front moves well SW of the terminals. MVFR to IFR CIGs are likely at all of the terminals after 06z Fri.
Outlook: Conditions slowly improve Friday (although restrictions may persist near the coast through much of the day) as the backdoor front retreats to the NE. A stronger cold front arrives from the NW and crosses the area late Friday/Friday night with scattered showers. Rain chances generally end after Sat morning, but return later Sunday into early Monday as low pressure passes through the Carolinas.
MARINE
As of 400 AM EDT Thursday...
Early this morning, weak low pressure was just off the srn DE coast with a cold front extending from the low westward into West VA. Winds were SW 5-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt across the waters. Waves were 1-2 ft and seas were 2-3 ft.
A backdoor cold front will drop across the waters from NE to SW this aftn into this evening. Winds become N then NE behind the front with speeds increasing to 10-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt this evening into tonight. The strongest NE winds will be over the nrn three coastal zns with 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt expected. Seas will build to 4-6 ft in these zns also. For now, will go with NE winds 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt in the mouth of the Bay with no SCA. However, have issued a SCA for the coastal zns from Fenwick Island to Cape Charles Light (650-654) due to winds/seas. The SCAs will start this evening at 7pm (650-652) or 10 pm (654). The SCA for zn 654 will last until 10 am Fri, while the SCA for (650-652) will last until 5 pm Fri.
A series of fronts will move through the region Fri into Sat.
The backdoor front returns north ahead of another cold front set to cross the waters early Sat. N winds will follow the second front but will be below SCA levels. Expecting conditions to remain below SCA levels from Sat into Sun evening.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 5 PM EDT Friday for ANZ650-652.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT Friday for ANZ654.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 640 AM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024
SYNOPSIS
Dry and warm conditions are expected today. A backdoor cold front drops south of the area late this afternoon through tonight, with a stronger cold front crossing the region Friday night. Rain chances increase late Sunday into early Monday as low pressure tracks along a stalled frontal boundary across the Carolinas.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 300 AM EDT Thursday...
Early morning wx analysis shows low pressure located along a frontal boundary over the upper eastern shore/southern DE, while an upper shortwave is passing by just to our north. It is very mild with temps in the 60s due to being in the warm sector south of the low.
The low will move offshore today and will drag a very weak cold front through the are later this morning. Winds turn to the W then NW behind the front but there will be little to no CAA (outside of the MD Ern Shore) through the day. Outside of some low clouds on the MD eastern shore (especially during the morning after the front comes through), skies will average mostly sunny. With downsloping W- NW winds and little in the way of CAA, temperatures will rebound into the lower-mid 80s in most areas by the aftn (with 70s on the eastern shore). Areas along the coast will probably see highs early in the aftn with falling temperatures during the mid-late aftn period as the flow turns onshore as a backdoor cold front arrives from the NE.
That backdoor cold front will pick up speed as it crosses the area from NW-SE from late this aftn-tonight, and am expecting it to move SW of the CWA by late tonight with winds becoming NE area-wide (could actually see some gusts to 25 mph near the coast this evening for a few hours right after the front pushes through). Temps quickly drop into the 50s after the FROPA and forecast lows range from the mid 40s to lower 50s. In addition, low stratus will overspread the entire area overnight with the onshore flow behind the front (although not really expecting much in the way of fog with 5-15 mph winds).
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 300 AM EDT Thursday...
Strong low pressure tracks from the Canadian Prairies to Ontario/Quebec from today-Friday evening, and this will push a stronger cold front toward the region (which will approach from the NW). The backdoor front is progged to retreat during the day on Fri as that stronger cold front approaches. The temperature forecast will depend on how fast that front retreats (and also how quickly the low stratus burns off). Have trended the forecast cooler (especially near the immediate Atlantic coast and on the eastern shore) where temps likely won't get out of the 60s. Temps may struggle to reach 60F on Fri in/near Ocean City. Still think it warms well into the 70s-80F across interior srn VA and NE NC. The greatest amount of uncertainty with respect to temps on Fri is near the RIC Metro/I-64 Corridor (where model solutions range from the 60s to mid 70s).
Rain chances will return, though not until later Friday afternoon.
Rain will be scattered at first before increasing in coverage a bit more after ~8pm. Any chances for thunderstorms will likely be focused across the west/southwest portion of the CWA since the backdoor cold front will be retreating across the east. All of that being said, this is not looking like a major rain event, or even moderate rain for that matter. QPF forecasts are still showing barely .10-.20" in a few spots, though that may even be a stretch.
The front likely moves south of the FA by the middle of Saturday morning, and isolated to perhaps scattered showers will likely linger over the area through that time (and potentially Sat aftn across far SE VA/NE NC...although PoPs are only 20% given the expected lack of coverage). We should see at least partial clearing over the NW 1/3 to 1/2 of the area by Sat aftn as drier air filters in behind the front. As of now, forecast highs Sat are in the upper 60s-lower 70s (although it may be cooler if clouds/showers linger longer than expected...which seems most likely across srn portions of the area).
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 300 AM EDT Thursday...
A stronger shot of CAA arrives Saturday night into Sunday morning.
Low temperatures will dip into the mid 40s. On Sunday, a southern stream low pressure system is progged to move out of the Gulf Coast states and into the Carolinas. The system then deepens offshore Sunday night into Monday. This means that rain chances will return, potentially by Sunday afternoon, and continue Sunday night into Monday. The main forecast challenge lies in figuring out how far north the rain will get, and this will have an impact on high temps Sunday and potentially Monday if light rain lingers near the area on the back side of the system. Forecast highs are in the 60s on both days, but temps will drop into the 50s on Sun once the rain arrives (and won't get out of the 50s on Mon if the rain lingers long enough). Exact details will be worked out in the coming days, but have likely PoPs in far SE VA/NE NC late Sun-Mon AM tapering to slight chance from LKU-SBY. High pressure briefly builds over the area Tue AM before another system brings shower chances to the area by Wednesday. Although it will be cool Tuesday morning, temps should rebound nicely during the day as the high moves offshore and winds become southerly.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 640 AM EDT Thursday...
VFR conditions prevail at this hour except for IFR stratus at SBY. Expect this to persist through ~14z before lifting.
Otherwise, VFR through this evening with dry wx. Expect clear skies outside of FEW-SCT cumulus during the late morning-aftn.
Winds will be NW at 5-10 kt. Then, a backdoor cold front crosses the terminals from NE to SW between 21-03z. Winds become NE at ~10 kt (could see a brief period of 20 kt gusts near the coast) following the FROPA. In addition, MVFR-IFR stratus likely overspreads the entire area tonight/early Fri AM as the front moves well SW of the terminals. MVFR to IFR CIGs are likely at all of the terminals after 06z Fri.
Outlook: Conditions slowly improve Friday (although restrictions may persist near the coast through much of the day) as the backdoor front retreats to the NE. A stronger cold front arrives from the NW and crosses the area late Friday/Friday night with scattered showers. Rain chances generally end after Sat morning, but return later Sunday into early Monday as low pressure passes through the Carolinas.
MARINE
As of 400 AM EDT Thursday...
Early this morning, weak low pressure was just off the srn DE coast with a cold front extending from the low westward into West VA. Winds were SW 5-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt across the waters. Waves were 1-2 ft and seas were 2-3 ft.
A backdoor cold front will drop across the waters from NE to SW this aftn into this evening. Winds become N then NE behind the front with speeds increasing to 10-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt this evening into tonight. The strongest NE winds will be over the nrn three coastal zns with 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt expected. Seas will build to 4-6 ft in these zns also. For now, will go with NE winds 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt in the mouth of the Bay with no SCA. However, have issued a SCA for the coastal zns from Fenwick Island to Cape Charles Light (650-654) due to winds/seas. The SCAs will start this evening at 7pm (650-652) or 10 pm (654). The SCA for zn 654 will last until 10 am Fri, while the SCA for (650-652) will last until 5 pm Fri.
A series of fronts will move through the region Fri into Sat.
The backdoor front returns north ahead of another cold front set to cross the waters early Sat. N winds will follow the second front but will be below SCA levels. Expecting conditions to remain below SCA levels from Sat into Sun evening.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 5 PM EDT Friday for ANZ650-652.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT Friday for ANZ654.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA | 21 mi | 57 min | NE 5.1G | 58°F | 63°F | 29.98 | ||
| PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD | 22 mi | 57 min | NE 1G | |||||
| 44042 - Potomac, MD | 29 mi | 45 min | NNE 9.7G | 55°F | 59°F | 1 ft | ||
| NCDV2 | 29 mi | 57 min | E 2.9G | 63°F | 64°F | 29.95 | ||
| SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD | 35 mi | 57 min | N 4.1G | 59°F | 58°F | 29.97 | ||
| YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA | 37 mi | 87 min | 0 | 60°F | 29.98 | 57°F | ||
| 44058 - Stingray Point, VA | 41 mi | 45 min | N 5.8G | 60°F | 59°F | 0 ft | ||
| COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD | 41 mi | 57 min | W 8G | 57°F | 29.99 | |||
| BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD | 48 mi | 57 min | N 4.1G | 62°F | 64°F | 29.97 | ||
| 44062 - Gooses Reef, MD | 49 mi | 45 min | N 12G | 54°F | 58°F | 0 ft |
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KXSA TAPPAHANNOCKESSEX COUNTY,VA | 5 sm | 22 min | N 03 | 10 sm | Clear | 66°F | 63°F | 88% | 29.98 |
Tide / Current for Tappahannock, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Tappahannock
Click for Map
Thu -- 04:14 AM EDT Moonset
Thu -- 05:06 AM EDT 0.33 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:27 AM EDT Sunrise
Thu -- 10:51 AM EDT 1.59 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:56 PM EDT Moonrise
Thu -- 05:45 PM EDT 0.35 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:46 PM EDT Sunset
Thu -- 11:12 PM EDT 1.57 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Thu -- 04:14 AM EDT Moonset
Thu -- 05:06 AM EDT 0.33 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:27 AM EDT Sunrise
Thu -- 10:51 AM EDT 1.59 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:56 PM EDT Moonrise
Thu -- 05:45 PM EDT 0.35 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:46 PM EDT Sunset
Thu -- 11:12 PM EDT 1.57 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Tappahannock, Rappahannock River, Virginia, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 1.3 |
| 1 am |
| 1.1 |
| 2 am |
| 0.8 |
| 3 am |
| 0.6 |
| 4 am |
| 0.4 |
| 5 am |
| 0.3 |
| 6 am |
| 0.4 |
| 7 am |
| 0.6 |
| 8 am |
| 1 |
| 9 am |
| 1.3 |
| 10 am |
| 1.5 |
| 11 am |
| 1.6 |
| 12 pm |
| 1.5 |
| 1 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 2 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 9 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 10 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 11 pm |
| 1.6 |
Wares Wharf
Click for Map
Thu -- 04:13 AM EDT Moonset
Thu -- 04:21 AM EDT 0.36 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:27 AM EDT Sunrise
Thu -- 10:18 AM EDT 1.68 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:55 PM EDT Moonrise
Thu -- 05:00 PM EDT 0.38 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:46 PM EDT Sunset
Thu -- 10:39 PM EDT 1.67 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Thu -- 04:13 AM EDT Moonset
Thu -- 04:21 AM EDT 0.36 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:27 AM EDT Sunrise
Thu -- 10:18 AM EDT 1.68 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:55 PM EDT Moonrise
Thu -- 05:00 PM EDT 0.38 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:46 PM EDT Sunset
Thu -- 10:39 PM EDT 1.67 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Wares Wharf, Rappahannock River, Virginia, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 1.3 |
| 1 am |
| 1 |
| 2 am |
| 0.7 |
| 3 am |
| 0.5 |
| 4 am |
| 0.4 |
| 5 am |
| 0.4 |
| 6 am |
| 0.6 |
| 7 am |
| 0.9 |
| 8 am |
| 1.3 |
| 9 am |
| 1.5 |
| 10 am |
| 1.7 |
| 11 am |
| 1.6 |
| 12 pm |
| 1.5 |
| 1 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 8 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 9 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 10 pm |
| 1.6 |
| 11 pm |
| 1.7 |
Wakefield, VA,
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