Wednesday, January27, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Tappahannock, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:15AMSunset 5:29PM Wednesday January 27, 2021 10:27 AM EST (15:27 UTC) Moonrise 4:16PMMoonset 6:37AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ537 Tidal Potomac From Cobb Island To Smith Point- 944 Am Est Wed Jan 27 2021
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
.gale warning in effect from Thursday morning through Thursday afternoon...
Rest of today..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 25 kt late this morning and early afternoon. Waves 2 ft.
Tonight..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt... Increasing to 25 kt late. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Thu..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Waves 4 ft.
Thu night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Waves 3 ft.
Fri..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Waves 3 ft.
Fri night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Sat..NW winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming se. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sun..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Snow likely through the day. Rain likely.
ANZ500 944 Am Est Wed Jan 27 2021
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will briefly return today. Low pressure may impact the waters tonight and Thursday. High pressure will return late in the week into the first part of the weekend. Another storm system may impact the region late in the weekend into early next week. Small craft advisories will be required for portions of the waters Thursday night through Friday night, with the potential for gales Thursday night into Friday morning.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Tappahannock, VA
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location: 37.93, -76.86     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 271404 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 904 AM EST Wed Jan 27 2021

SYNOPSIS. Low pressure tracks south of the local area late today into Thursday morning. High pressure builds across the region for the end of the week. Another low pressure system will affect the region Sunday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. As of 305 AM EST Wednesday .

As anticipated . widespread low clouds remain stubborn of the FA attm. Areas of FG are also found mainly over the piedmont W of I 95. Have an SPS for that until 12Z/27 Otw. running the fcst based largely on persistence On model soundings. current low level inversion to lift during today but attm hard to see much clearing given winds less than 10 mph and that its late Jan. In-situ wedge will to remain through the day . w/ 20-30% PoP (rain) S of VA-NC border. Remaining largely mostly cloudy w/ highs from the m-u40s N to the l50s far S.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/. As of 330 AM EST Wednesday .

One area of pcpn (mainly rain) skirts by across srn VA on S through NC this evening while an upper level system tracks into the mountains. Its that upper level trough that will be the key to any snow occurring over (mainly) the far srn portions of the FA tonight. The system will have to generate cold air through dynamics (a rain-snow scenario). The upper level system exiting the mountains this evening will be feature that generates bulk of the pcpn over the FA tonight as sfc lo pres tracks to coastal NC.

Rain this evening (mainly over far srn VA-NE NC) expected to mix w/ and change over to a period of wet snow (mainly) after midnight as dynamics and cooling aloft takes place. Highest potential for snow accums 1" or more are over far srn/interior SE VA into NE NC. Would not rule out slightly higher totals if there are any persistent bands of moderate/heavy snow Also. expecting rain to battle w/ snow near the coast which would limit accums. After coord w/ RAH/MHX . will issue a winter weather advisory for far srn tier (including SE locations all the way to the bay/ocean) in VA and all but the nrn Outer Banks in NC starting at midnight. Timing of pcpn changeover/temperatures and intensity will be key to any eventual accums. Light snow or just flurries expected over most central/nrn portions of the FA. NNW winds will begin to increase by late tonight. Lows u20s N to the l30s along coastal SE VA-NE NC.

Lo pres exits quickly Thu morning w/ lingering pcpn at the coast ending. NNW winds will be breezy/windy in its wake as clearing occurs. Gusts to 35-45 mph are expected . highest most likely at the coast (where a wind advisory will likely be issued later today). Cold Thu w/ highs not too far from 40F . wind chills mainly in the 20s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/. As of 355 PM EST Tuesday .

High pressure centers over the area Friday then moves offshore Saturday. Temps will remain cool Friday with temps in the upper 30s/lower 40s then only slight warming into the low-mid 40s Saturday. Then, the medium range models have another area of low pressure moving through the Great Lakes then developing another low off the NE coast by Monday. The associated cold front will move through the region Sunday. Snow to rain poss Sunday morning before southerly flow allows for rain as temps warm into the 40s and lower 50s. (12Z/26 ECMWF ensembles do show an increase in prob snow accums 3" or more over portions of the piedmont, with yet another Miller-B set up modeled. GFS is a bit faster and more compact. Precip chances look good, so high end chance to likely PoPs are in order, but phase will take a bit more time to ascertain. ECMWF solution would portend to a snowier solution if the current idea is maintained. Drying out behind the system, but remaining cold relative to normal as mean east coast trough looks to set up. Stay tuned.

AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. As of 615 AM EST Wednesday .

Widespread LIFR/IFR conditions (mainly CIGs . though occasional VSBYs down to 1/2-1SM or so in BR) to continue until mid-late morning (and quite possibly all day . though low level inversion is expected to lift resulting in CIGs lifting into MVFR cat). Models suggest at least partial clearing . but for now will go w/ persistence given low level wedge/inversion and residual moisture. VRB winds become mainly N avgg about 10 kt. Sub-VFR conditions expected tonight . as low pres crosses the FA (then exits quickly Thu afternoon). Additional flight restrictions tonight due to low CIGs and mixed pcpn (RA/SN - becoming SN). Becoming VFR and breezy/windy Thu (gusts to 25-35 kt at the coast) . poss MVFR CIGs linger INVOF SE VA-NE NC. VFR conds to prevail Thu night- Sat night.

MARINE. As of 330 AM EST Wednesday .

Weak high pressure is centered just west of the waters early this morning, with W-NW winds below 10 kt. Seas are 2-3 ft, with waves of ~1 ft on the bay. A modest CAA surge arrives from the NW later this morning, which will allow NW winds to increase to 15-20 kt N/~15 kt S. This surge weakens as it moves southward through the day today. However, wind probs are showing a 3-6 hour window of low-end SCAs on the middle bay (50-70% for sustained 18 kt winds near Tangier Island). Went ahead and issued an SCA from 12-21z N of Windmill Pt (630) to account for this.

Low pressure is still progged to deepen as it tracks across the Carolinas tonight before exiting quickly out to sea during the latter part of Thu AM (and through the remainder of the day on Thu). The low will rapidly intensify shortly after it moves off the coast. N winds increase to ~20 kt by 03-06z Thu on the bay/ocean. Then, by late Wed night into Thu morning, winds become NNW and will increase to 25-35 kt (highest over the srn coastal waters) in the wake of the storm system. The strongest winds will occur from Thu AM-Thu evening before diminishing slightly during the first part of Thu night. Gusts 35-40 kt will be common for the Ches Bay/Currituck Sound/Coastal Waters and around 30 kt for the upper rivers during this time. Have upgraded all Gale Watches to Warnings for the ocean/bay/Lower James/Currituck Sound. Have started the Gale Warnings from 00-03z Thu to account for the onset of SCA conditions. For now, will end Gale Warnings (and the SCA for the upper rivers) from 00-06z Fri. A secondary (fairly strong) CAA surge arrives late Thu night/Friday morning with robust (850 mb temps are progged to bottom out between -15 and -17C N of Cape Charles). CAA continues during the day on Friday. This will result in at least the continuation of solid/strong SCA conditions, with a good chc of gale gusts north of Cape Charles (mainly from 12-21z Fri). Will hold off on extending the warnings, given that it would be more than 48 hours out. Additionally, cannot rule out some light freezing spray over the coastal waters N of Parramore Island late Thu night/Fri AM. NW winds will slowly diminish Fri night-Sat AM. Winds should finally fall below SCA thresholds by late Sat AM. Seas are expected to top out between 7-10 ft with waves on the Bay 4-5 ft (perhaps 6 ft at the mouth).

HYDROLOGY. Flood Warning has been posted for the Meherrin River at Lawrenceville. Additional flood warnings may be needed later this week along the Nottoway River, and will need to monitor Stony Creek, and Sebrell.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM EST Thursday for MDZ021>025. NC . Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM EST Thursday for NCZ017-102. Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM EST Thursday for NCZ012. Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EST Thursday for NCZ013>017-030>032. VA . Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM EST Thursday for VAZ095- 098>100. Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM EST Thursday for VAZ065-079-087-088-092. Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EST Thursday for VAZ093-095>098. MARINE . Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 10 PM EST Thursday for ANZ630>632-650-652-654. Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM EST Friday for ANZ656-658. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Thursday to 1 AM EST Friday for ANZ635>637. Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 1 AM EST Friday for ANZ634. Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Thursday for ANZ633-638. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ630.

SYNOPSIS . MAM NEAR TERM . ALB SHORT TERM . ALB/MAM LONG TERM . MAM AVIATION . ALB MARINE . ERI/TMG HYDROLOGY . AKQ


Weather Reporting Stations
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Wind History for Lewisetta, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tappahannock-Essex County Airport, VA5 mi32 minNNW 310.00 miMostly Cloudy39°F39°F100%1020 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KXSA

Wind History from XSA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN4CalmCalmCalmCalmW3SW4CalmCalmNW4N6CalmCalmW4SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW4CalmN4NW3
1 day agoCalmNE5E5NE6E4NE3CalmCalmN3NE5E5----E6NE4NE5NE7CalmN3CalmN4N4N4Calm
2 days agoN3NW6N5W6W5CalmW3CalmCalmCalmSW3CalmS4SE4CalmCalmCalmE3E3E3CalmNE3SE5E3

Tide / Current Tables for Tappahannock, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Tappahannock
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Wed -- 12:09 AM EST     1.39 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:37 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 06:45 AM EST     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:15 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 12:36 PM EST     1.84 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:16 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:25 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:44 PM EST     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.41.31.10.80.50.2-0-0.10.10.511.51.81.81.71.410.60.20-00.20.61

Tide / Current Tables for Wares Wharf, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Wares Wharf
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Wed -- 06:00 AM EST     -0.09 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:36 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 07:14 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 12:03 PM EST     1.94 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:16 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:25 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:59 PM EST     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.51.310.60.30-0.100.40.91.41.81.91.91.61.20.70.30.1-00.10.50.91.3

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