Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Corte Madera, CA

UPDATE
Issued at 845 PM PDT Thu May 15 2025

No changes in the forecast this evening. A series of upper level shortwave energy will continue to transect NoCal and the Central Coast tomorrow into the weekend. Gusty winds at higher elevations tomorrow will become more wide spread into the lower elevations and coastal areas on Saturday. Marine layer stratus will be spotty tonight, with an increase in coverage expected by late Friday night into Saturday as more robust onshore flow along the coast develops for the weekend.

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 1241 PM PDT Thu May 15 2025

Satellite imagery shows lingering stratus at the immediate coast of the San Mateo Peninsula and the Big Sur Coast. With an upper level ridge across the West Coast, overall conditions remain dry and seasonably warm throughout the region with highs ranging from the middle 70s to the lower 80s inland and the middle 60s to lower 70s along the Bayshore, while onshore flow keeps the coastal regions cool with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Friday's forecast is quite similar in the inland areas, but a stronger onshore flow should result in slightly cooler conditions in the coastal valleys, such as the southern reaches of the SF Bay (Redwood City and Fremont southwards), the Santa Clara valley, and the northern Salinas Valley, where around 3 to 5 degrees of cooling are expected. Meanwhile, morning lows hover around the upper 40s to the middle 50s for most people, with pockets of lower to middle 40s in the highest peaks.

LONG TERM
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1241 PM PDT Thu May 15 2025

Later on Friday through Saturday, an upper level trough will develop off the Pacific Northwest and deepen as it travels into the Great Basin, causing a dip in temperatures for the upcoming weekend. The ensemble models are starting to converge on a more open trough to continue into the Intermountain West or perhaps the Great Plains, as opposed to the Great Basin cutoff low that we had anticipated at this time yesterday, but this is a distinction without a difference for Saturday's high temperatures, which will dip by around 10 degrees in the interior valleys, to around the middle 60s to lower 70s, while the Bayshore drops into the lower to middle 60s. Although the trough will continue to move eastwards, leaving a classic "inside slider" scenario less likely, the pressure gradient between the cutoff low and a ridge in the eastern Pacific will still result in gusty winds across the region later on Friday into Sunday. The current forecast continues to show wind gusts reaching 25 to 35 mph across the region with gusts up to 45 mph possible at the ridgelines, along the coast, and through favored gaps and passes.

Warming temperatures will return for the early part of next week with high temperatures rising to the middle 80s to lower 90s inland, or around 5 to 10 degrees above seasonal averages. Low temperatures should remain relatively stable near the upper 40s to middle 50s for the lower elevations, which should help alleviate concerns for heat- related illnesses for all but the most sensitive populations. Late Sunday and Monday, northerly winds could develop on the backside of the trough in the interior regions, especially in Napa County and the interior East Bay, helping to reinforce the warmer and drier conditions in those areas. Towards, and beyond, the end of the 7 day forecast, ensemble model clusters begin to diverge on the upper level pattern, with around 20% of ensembles developing an upper level trough heading into the start of the Memorial Day weekend, another 20-30% anticipating more zonal flow, and the remaining 50- 60% holding onto the ridge.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1041 PM PDT Thu May 15 2025

High level clouds have started to move in with patchy stratus developing along the coastline. Highest confidence continues to be that HAF, MRY, and SNS will get stratus overnight with MVFR CIGs the most likely to occur. CIGs will hover on the border of MVFR/IFR for coastal airports but currently leaning towards more MVFR CIGs .
Confidence is low that stratus will spread inland due to a compressed marine layer (~1000ft) and dry conditions across the interior. Guidance does indicate some patchy stratus may develop around OAK but, if it develops, it looks to be temporary in nature with VFR prevailing. Onshore winds pick up tomorrow afternoon with breezy to locally gusty conditions across all TAF sites. Gusty conditions will continue through the end of the TAF period.
Widespread MVFR CIGs look to return at the end of this TAF period to just after the end of this TAF period as a southerly surge of stratus develops.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR through the TAF period. Low confidence that stratus will reach SFO due to compressed marine layer and drier conditions across the interior. High level clouds will filter in overnight with some patchy FEW/SCT low level clouds possible during the early morning. If any stratus does develop, it is likely to stay closer to OAK than SFO during the early morning hours. Gusty onshore winds develop during the day tomorrow with gusts to around 29 knots forecast. Gusty winds will persist through the end of the TAF period with MVFR CIGs returning tomorrow night as a southerly surge develops.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals.. MVFR overnight with VFR briefly returning during the day tomorrow. Confidence is low to moderate on stratus clearing time tomorrow with the most likely clearing time between 18Z-20Z. A few models indicate MRY may not clear but confidence is low in that scenario. Breezy to gusty onshore flow develops during the day tomorrow with gusts to around 20 knots expected. Breezy conditions will persist tomorrow night with MVFR CIGs returning early tomorrow evening as a southerly surge develops.

MARINE
(Tonight through next Wednesday)
Issued at 845 PM PDT Thu May 15 2025

Fresh to strong northwest winds continue over the coastal waters with gale force gusts over the outer waters. Near gale force to gale force gusts will become more widespread Friday morning into Saturday. Winds will further increase late Saturday night into Sunday with widespread gale force gusts to continue through the early work week. Moderate seas and steep, wind-driven fresh swell will continue through the early work week with significant wave heights between 10 to 12 feet. Conditions over the outer waters will worsen Sunday into the early work week as winds increase.
Hazardous conditions will continue through the end of the forecast period.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Friday to 3 AM PDT Saturday for Mry Bay-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.

Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

Gale Warning from 3 PM Friday to 3 AM PDT Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.