Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Chincoteague, VA

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 330 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- A Flood Watch is now in effect for portions of southern and southeastern VA and northeast NC through late tonight.

- A Marginal Risk for severe weather is forecast for today as a few isolated storms may become severe with damaging winds being the primary threat, but all threats are possible.

The stationary front continues to linger just to the north of the area with the early morning analysis. The front is forecast to slowly move south today before once again stalling near the VA/NC border. The exact location where the front stalls remains a bit uncertain as some recent CAMs models depicts it moving further south than others. This placement will be crucial for the location with the highest rainfall totals. The moist airmass continues to thrive over the area, with PW values remaining 2"+ today. Total QPF values are up to 2-4" for the southern half of the CWA With the scattered nature of the storms, locally higher amounts are possible. The 00z HRRR ensemble suite depicts a long lasting showers and storms with a robust probability of >3" within a 3 hour period within the long lasting storms. The likely timing of these storms will be in the afternoon to late evening. Henceforth, a Flood Watch is now in effect for along and south of the US 460 corridor through late tonight. Additionally, WPC has issued a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall with the storms.

A Marginal Risk (level 1/5) of severe weather has also been forecasted for the area today, as there is slightly stronger flow aloft, though any severe storms will likely be in association with the front. The primary threat will be damaging winds, however all threats are possible (lower confidence in tornadoes and severe hail). Moderate levels of CAPE (CAMs supporting >1500 J/kg for the southern half of the CWA) will additionally assist in a favorable environment for a few severe storms, as well as heavy rainfall. Shear values and lapse rates appear to be rather weak though.

Temperatures will show a fairly large gradient, with highs ranging from the lower 70s in the MD Eastern Shore to the mid to upper 80s for portions of south central VA and NE NC. Overnight lows will be in the mid 60 to lower 70s.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
As of 330 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Remaining unsettled Monday-Tuesday.

Unsettled weather will continue Monday, and even into Tuesday. Areas along and S/SW of I-64 are in a Marginal ERO Monday, given the frontal boundary still quasi stationary over the region with additional shortwaves moving through the westerly flow aloft. PoPS Monday remain the highest in the afternoon and evening (50-70%) for the southern half of the CWA Highs Monday will be below avg, generally in the 70s for northern and central zones, with low-mid 80s across the south. With an upper trough still off to our W on Tuesday, additional showers/tstms are again expected, with high chc to likely PoPs once again. It will tend to turn warmer Tuesday with highs in the lower 80s in the Eastern Shore to upper 80s for portions of south central VA and NE NC.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 330 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Message:

- Shower/storm chances drop off to near climo, with temperatures trending back above normal by mid to late week.

Upper level ridging over the SE US coast will expand into the region, bringing near-climo precip, and hot temperatures Wednesday and Thursday. Model 850 mb temperatures rise to 18-20C Thursday, which would support highs into the low- mid 90s, along with continued moderate to high humidity. Heat indices will be the highest on Thursday, likely above 100F, possibly close to headline criteria in the SE (though this is several days out so confidence is not high). Latest ensemble guidance continues to support an upper level trough pushing a cold front through the region Thursday/Friday, which should help Friday and Saturday be drier.

AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 215 AM EDT Sunday...

Predominate VFR-MVFR CIGs to start the 06z TAF period, though there is some LCL pockets of IFR/LIFR along the coast. Toward that trend, CIGS are expected to degrade through the early morning hours drop to IFR at all terminals save for ECG, with some potential for LIFR at RIC and SBY after 10z. CIGS will lift to generally IFR to MVFR by 14-15z this morning and will remain there through this evening.

Convection is expected to resume by 18-20z this afternoon. Once again, there is uncertainty in the evolution of afternoon storms, so have decided to include a PROB30 for -TSRA at all terminals save for SBY to account for the the possibility of numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms expected tomorrow.
The challenge will be exactly where storms develop and when, so details of become a little more clear and confidence increases, we will likely include TEMPOs to capture the convection as we get closer.

Outlook: Some additional late night/early morning stratus and fog to begin Monday. Scattered to numerous (mainly) aftn/evening showers/tstms are again expected Monday, bringing localized flight restrictions in heavy rain and gusty winds. Rain chances remain a bit elevated Tue, then diminish Wed/Thu.

MARINE
As of 400 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Message:

- Relatively benign across the marine area into next week outside of convection.

A stationary front slowly drops south today before stalling near the VA/NC state border late tonight. Sub-SCA conditions prevail with benign marine conditions. Seas are mainly between 2 to 3 ft (northern coastal waters 3 to 4 ft), with 1 ft waves in the Ches. Bay. Winds are currently E in the northern waters and bay, and W in the southern waters, as the front lays over the coastal waters. Seas are expected to remain relatively similar to current heights throughout the day. Showers and thunderstorms are likely across the waters today, with SMWs possible to handle any strong winds. The front gradually washes out next week, with a more S/SW flow again by Tuesday, with sub-SCA conditions continuing.

Rip currents risk is moderate N and low S today and Monday.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...Flood Watch through late tonight for NCZ012>017-030>032-102.
VA...Flood Watch through late tonight for VAZ060-065>068-079-080- 087-088-092-093-095>098.
MARINE...None.