Tuesday, December1, 2020
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L-36.com

Marine Weather and Tides
Chincoteague, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:59AMSunset 4:43PM Tuesday December 1, 2020 3:20 AM EST (08:20 UTC) Moonrise 5:45PMMoonset 8:04AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ652 Coastal Waters From Chincoteague To Parramore Island Va Out 20 Nm- 1253 Am Est Tue Dec 1 2020
.small craft advisory in effect through Wednesday morning...
Rest of tonight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft with a dominant period of 10 seconds.
Tue..W winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 9 ft with a dominant period of 10 seconds.
Tue night..W winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 6 to 7 ft with a dominant period of 10 seconds.
Wed..W winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft with a dominant period of 9 seconds.
Wed night..W winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft with a dominant period of 9 seconds.
Thu..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft with a dominant period of 12 seconds.
Thu night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft with a dominant period of 11 seconds.
Fri..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Fri night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of rain.
Sat..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft.
Sat night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers.
ANZ600 1253 Am Est Tue Dec 1 2020
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. High pressure slowly builds into the region from the southwest through Wednesday night. The high becomes centered over the waters on Thursday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Chincoteague, VA
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location: 37.95, -75.36     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 010535 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1235 AM EST Tue Dec 1 2020

SYNOPSIS. A cold front crosses the area this evening and moves offshore overnight. High pressure builds back in from the southwest Tuesday night through midweek. The next low pressure system is expected to affect the region Friday into Saturday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/. As of 700 PM EST Monday .

Tornado Watch and Wind Advisory has ended as all of the stronger showers/isolated tstms have moved offshore with the initial cold front. Mainly dry conditions now prevail across the region, aside from the showers offshore still affecting the outer portions of the coastal marine zones. The main cold front is now pushing across the CWA and an area of clouds with a few sprinkles will be possible across SE VA/NE NC later this evening and then becoming confined to NE NC overnight (PoPs will only be 20-30% with this and QPF amounts will be a trace to a few hundredths at most). Strong cold air advection will occur overnight in the wake of the cold front, with a westerly wind persisting. Decreasing clouds for most areas overnight through sunrise Tuesday with lows ranging from the mid 30s W to the lower-mid 40s SE.

SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/. As of 330 PM EST Monday .

Upper trough will swing across the area Tue morning, and could produce a few very light showers or sprinkles Tue morning hours (mainly over the N). Otherwise, becoming partly to mostly sunny. Blustery and markedly cooler with highs ranging from the mid 40s to lower 50s. Wind chills will remain in the 30s to near 40 through the day . not really a big issue on Dec 1st in most cases, but given the warmer conditions of late, just a bit jarring nonetheless. Clear and cold Tue night, with winds finally laying down and allowing temps to fall into the upper 20s to mid 30s. High pressure builds across the southeast and into the Mid-Atlc region Wed/Wed night into Thu, with temps slowly moderating Wed/Thu. the upper 40s to low 50s on Wed, under a sunny to mostly sunny sky. Cold once again Wed night with lows ranging from the mid 20s to the mid 30s. Highs in the 50s Thu.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/. As of 330 PM EST Monday .

Surface high slides offshore into Friday. Not quite as cold Thu night in developing return flow with early morning lows in the mid 30s to low 40s.

Pattern transitions to a more active period late in the week into next weekend, ahead of another developing potent mid/upper level trough diving across the Canadian Prairies into the High Plains Wed night/Thursday, which both deterministic runs and the member ensembles evolve into a positively- tilted upper trough by Friday night. 12z/30 models are in decent agreement at this point w/overrunning precip on Friday with clearing into Saturday. Have therefore maintained a slight to low- end chance PoP during this period. Cold front should cross behind these showers, with drier conditions settling in for the latter half of the weekend into early next week.

Temperatures start off cool, but moderate back toward/above climo by the end of the period ahead of the next approaching cold front on Monday.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. As of 1235 AM EST Tuesday .

Low pressure is located over the Adirondack region of upstate NY as of 06z, with the trailing cold front now off the Mid-Atlantic coast. The wind is WSW 8-12kt, with occasional gusts to 15-20kt. An area of SCT-BKN clouds with bases around 4-6kft is located over the area, especially toward the coast, with additional high clouds farther aloft. The wind is expected to remain WSW today as low pressure remains N of the region, and as high pressure builds across the Southeast. The wind is expected to become rather gusty today with speeds of 12-20kt and gusts to 25-30kt. Additional mid and high clouds are expected as an upper trough moves over the region, with bases generally at or above 8kft. Clearing is expected tonight with the wind remaining WSW with speeds of 8-12kt.

VFR conditions are expected to prevail Wednesday into Thursday as high pressure builds across the region. A cold front will bring a 20-30% chc of light rain Friday, with a low probability of low pressure impacting the region Saturday.

MARINE. As of 700 PM EST Monday .

This afternoon, ~992mb low pressure is now centered over northern Pennsylvania and will continue to head off to the NE through the evening. Meanwhile, a cold front extends south into central VA and will continue to quickly push off to the east through the next couple of hours, moving east of the local waters by this evening. Generally seeing S to SE winds over the waters at around 20 to 25 knots with higher gusts to around 30 to 35 knots. Seas remain elevated to around 7 to 10 feet (11-12 feet out 20 nm), and waves in the Bay 3 to 5 feet (6 feet at the mouth).

HAve ended all Gale warnings and replaced with Small Craft Advisories through tonight and Tuesday due to CAA surge behind the front. Winds become W and then WNW by tomorrow night and remain elevated to around 20 to 25 knots (15 to 20 knots Rivers/Sound). There may be a brief period of Gale gusts, mainly for the northern coastal waters/out 20nm, later tomorrow morning into the early afternoon hours. SCA conditions linger into Wednesday morning, possibly Wednesday afternoon for the coastal waters due to seas in excess of 5 feet, before conditions gradually improve during the day on Wednesday. The wind gradually becomes SW 10-15kt Wednesday into Thursday as high pressure settles in vicinity of the Southeast coast.Another low pressure system potentially impacts the region later in the week, but confidence with respect to details and timing is low at this point.

HYDROLOGY. As of 915 PM EST Monday .

The heavy rain over the past 24 hrs across the James/Appomattox basins is leading to water levels approaching but staying just below minor flood at Palmyra, Cartersville, and Farmville. At RIC Westham, there is high enough confidence of reaching flood stage Tue morning. For now have issued a River Flood Warning at RIC Westham and will hold off at the other sites and continue to monitor trends. See latest FLWAKQ for details.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . None. NC . None. VA . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ635>637. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ630>634- 650-652-654-656-658. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ638.

SYNOPSIS . LKB NEAR TERM . LKB/MAM SHORT TERM . MAM/TMG LONG TERM . MAM AVIATION . AJZ MARINE . AJB/RHR HYDROLOGY . AKQ


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44089 14 mi24 min 57°F7 ft
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 29 mi50 min WSW 5.1 G 7 51°F 59°F1001.8 hPa
OCIM2 - 8570283 - Ocean City Inlet, MD 30 mi50 min W 8 G 11 54°F 57°F1001.6 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 41 mi50 min W 17 G 19 52°F 55°F1000.7 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 45 mi50 min SW 18 G 20 1002.2 hPa
44009 - DELAWARE BAY 26 NM Southeast of Cape May, NJ 49 mi30 min 9 ft

Wind History for Ocean City Inlet, MD
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Link to 5 minute data for KWAL

Wind History from WAL (wind in knots)
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1 day agoNW4NW8NW8NW8NW10NW7CalmCalmCalmNW3CalmNW3W3NW3W4W5NW6N5CalmNW3NW3NW3N3E3
2 days agoNE10NE7NE9NE10E5E6NE4NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW4NW4NW3NW3N4NW3NW5NW4NW3NW4

Tide / Current Tables for Chincoteague Island, Blake Cove, Chincoteague Bay, Virginia
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Chincoteague Island
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:59 AM EST     0.02 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:58 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:04 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 09:24 AM EST     0.94 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:42 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 04:47 PM EST     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:44 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 09:57 PM EST     0.76 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.50.30.20.100.10.30.60.80.90.90.80.70.50.30.10-00.10.30.60.70.80.7

Tide / Current Tables for George Island Landing, Chincoteague Bay, Maryland
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George Island Landing
Click for Map
Tue -- 05:01 AM EST     0.01 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:59 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:04 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 10:52 AM EST     0.68 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:41 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 05:44 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:49 PM EST     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:25 PM EST     0.55 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.50.40.30.10.100.10.20.40.60.70.70.60.50.40.20.10-00.10.20.40.50.5

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.