Wednesday, October16, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Chincoteague, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
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Sunrise 7:10AMSunset 6:25PM Wednesday October 16, 2019 6:18 PM EDT (22:18 UTC) Moonrise 7:17PMMoonset 8:37AM Illumination 89% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ652 Coastal Waters From Chincoteague To Parramore Island Va Out 20 Nm- 428 Pm Edt Wed Oct 16 2019
.gale warning in effect through Thursday evening...
Through 7 pm..S winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft with a dominant period of 5 seconds. Showers with a slight chance of tstms. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..W winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming nw 25 to 30 kt in the late evening and overnight. Seas 6 to 7 ft with a dominant period of 8 seconds. Showers likely early in the evening.
Thu..W winds 25 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft with a dominant period of 8 seconds.
Thu night..NW winds 25 to 30 kt, diminishing to 20 to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 5 ft with a dominant period of 6 seconds.
Fri..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft with a dominant period of 5 seconds.
Fri night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Sat..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft.
Sat night..S winds 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Sun..S winds 10 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft.
Sun night..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft, building to 4 to 5 ft after midnight. A chance of showers after midnight. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ600 428 Pm Edt Wed Oct 16 2019
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. A strong cold front crosses the region tonight as low pressure exits to the north northeast. The area of low pressure will intensify while moving northeast to new england on Thursday, bringing strong northwest winds to the local area. High pressure slowly builds into the region late Friday into the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Chincoteague, VA
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location: 37.95, -75.36     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 162036
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
436 pm edt Wed oct 16 2019

Synopsis
A strong cold front crosses the local area late this afternoon
through early this evening. A gusty northwest wind is expected
behind the front tonight into Thursday. High pressure builds in
for the end of the week resulting in cool and dry weather.

Near term until 6 am Thursday morning
As of 355 pm edt Wednesday...

a potent frontal system is crossing the mid-atlantic region
this aftn ahead of a deep trough over the great lakes. A band of
rain is steadily crossing the eastern half of the area this
aftn, and a rumble of thunder is possible over far SE va and ne
nc through late aftn. Farther w, rain has ended, but mostly
cloudy to overcast conditions continue. Temperatures range from
the mid 50s NW to the low 70s se. Much needed rainfall has
occurred over the piedmont and central s-central va with amounts
of 0.75-1.5" and isolated amounts up to 2.0". Farther e,
amounts are 0.25-0.75" so far, but should reach the 0.75-1.5"
with locally up to 2.0" by the time rain ends later this aftn.

The main cold front is crossing the central appalachians this
aftn, and will sweep across the local area late this aftn early
evening as low pressure deepens off the nj coast. This will
bring clearing and drier conditions to the area. A wnw wind
should increase as CAA begins with gusts to 20-25 mph possible.

Breezy conditions should continue overnight, especially over the
ern shore, whereas the wind will diminish later tonight over
the piedmont. Forecast lows tonight range from the low 40s over
the piedmont, to the upper 40s low 50s toward the coast.

Short term 6 am Thursday morning through Saturday
As of 355 pm edt Wednesday...

the combination of strong low pressure over new england and
high pressure W of the region will result in breezy conditions
across the area. The wind will be strongest over the ERN shore
where a wnw wind of ~20mph will gust to 30-35mph. Elsewhere,
expect a wnw wind of ~15mph with gusts to 25-30mph. Mostly sunny
and cooler with highs in the low mid 60s. High pressure builds
in from the W Thursday night. Mostly clear with low temperatures
ranging from the upper 30s around 40f over the piedmont, to the
mid upper 40s toward the coast where a somewhat tighter
pressure gradient will result in a 5-10mph NW wind. Continued
mostly sunny, cool and pleasant Friday with highs in the low mid
60s. High pressure settles over the area Friday night likely
resulting in the coolest night so far this autumn. Forecast lows
range from the upper 30s for the piedmont (possible mid 30s in
the coldest spots), with low mid 40s closer to the coast, and
still mid upper 40s for coastal SE va NE nc. The high slides
offshore Saturday. High temperatures are forecast to reach the
mid 60s to around 70f. Mostly sunny with an increase in high
clouds possible later in the day.

Long term Saturday night through Wednesday
As of 345 pm Wednesday...

forecast uncertainty will increase drastically by the end of
the coming weekend, due in part to the eventual
development track of a tropical sub-tropical disturbance
(currently with a 50% chance of future development in the gomex)
that will combine with an approaching mid-level trough. This
system and its related swath of tropical moisture will likely be
drawn inland across the southeastern u.S. And eventually the
local area sometime in the late Sat thr Mon timeframe. Exact
timing of this feature remains highly variable from model run to
model run, with the GFS solution roughly 18 hours faster
compared to the ec can solutions, which retain a stronger
surface high in-place across the eastern seaboard through
Saturday night. For now, have decided to go with a heavily ec
weighted blend of model solutions, keeping best pops out of the
region until Sunday morning, and keeping at least chc pops
present through Tuesday of next week. This is likely slightly
overdone longevity-wise, with a dry period likely to prevail at
some point between the aforementioned disturbance and eventually
a clearing cold front likely to move through sometime tues wed.

As far as temps, highs will mostly be in the 70-75f range
Sunday, rising to the 72-78f range Mon tues. Cooling back into
the 60s next wed. Low temps Sat night from the mid upr 40s
inland to the low mid 50s coast, rising to the low mid 60s mon
night. Behind a strong cold front, temps may lower back into the
40s and 50s next Tuesday night.

Aviation 21z Wednesday through Monday
As of 240 pm edt Wednesday...

a cold front is a approaching from the W as of 18z with a large
area of rain ahead of the boundary. Rain is expected to continue
the next few hours and end from wsw-ene from 20-00z. Expect vsby
of 1-3nm in moderate to heavy rain, with CIGS varying between
ifr MVFR, and then lifting from wsw-ene from 20-00z. The wind
will be sse 8-12kt with gusts to ~20kt ahead of the front, and
then shift to W behind the front, and there is a potential for
some gusts to 30-35kt from the W along a thin convective line
moving from ERN va toward the coast from 18-21z. Conditions
improve quickly this evening behind the front, with a wnw wind
of 8-12kt occasionally gusting to ~20kt. This wind will increase
Thursday morning (still from the wnw) to 12-15kt with gusts to
~25kt for most sites, and 15-20kt with gusts up to 30kt at sby.

Mostly sunny with few-sct late morning through mid-aftn cu.

High pressure prevails over the region Thursday night through
Saturday bringing dry andVFR conditions. There is the potential
for low pressure to move up the southeast coast in the Saturday
night through Monday time-frame, which will bring clouds and a
chc of rain.

Marine
As of 355 pm edt Wednesday...

latest sfc analysis shows ~996 mb low pressure over lake huron,
with a trailing cold front to the sse. A SRN triple point low
was located over the ches bay. Winds are still sse over the
coastal waters, with gusts above SCA thresholds (w some gale
force gusts N of chincoteague). Seas have quickly built to
around 6 ft, with ~3 ft waves on the bay. The aforementioned
(strong) cold front moves to the SE of the CWA by late this
evening, allowing winds to shift to the wnw. No changes to
marine headlines, and not a whole lot of change to near-term
forecast thinking. After winds turn to the wnw, they will
rapidly increase as low pressure exits to the nne and rapidly
deepens as it tracks just offshore of nj ny ct. The coastal
waters N of CAPE charles the northernmost ches bay zone are
under gale warnings (for a prolonged period of gusts to at least
35-40 kt this evening into early Thu am (potentially 40-45kt
over coastal waters N of parramore island). Strong scas are in
effect elsewhere. However, confidence is fairly high that most
areas on the ches bay coastal waters N of the va-nc border (and
lower james river) will see a couple hours worth of 35-40 kt
gusts during the 8 pm-1 am timeframe. Hi-res guidance is in
agreement that wind gusts diminish to just below gale force
across the SRN bay coastal waters by 06z tonight. However, a few
gusts to 35 kt are likely through the night (in areas W scas
in effect), especially at elevated sites.

Will likely need to issue short fused smws to cover the brief,
post- frontal surge in gusts but continue to think that a gale
warning would be too long for a couple hours hours worth of
frequent gale force gusts (for SRN marine zones). Seas are not
expected to build much more after winds shift to the wnw (5-8 ft
n 4-6 ft s). Waves on the bay build to 3-5 ft, with 2-3 ft
waves in the rivers. Still have the gale warning expiring for
the NRN ches bay at 08z tonight, while continuing through 02z
fri for the NRN coastal waters. All scas run through 08-10z
fri. Frequent gusts to ~30 kt are likely across the majority of
the bay coastal waters through Thu night. The current forecast
has winds remaining AOA sca thresholds for bay and coast through
~12-15z fri. Sub-sca conditions return by late fri, as high
pressure settles over the waters. Models are hinting at the
potential for another low pressure system to approach from the
sw late this weekend before exiting to the NE early next week.

Still quite a bit of disagreement in the models with respect to
this system, but confidence for another round of scas (starting
by Sun night) is increasing.

Tides coastal flooding
As of 430 pm edt Wednesday...

gusty s-sse winds (to ~30 kt) earlier today have allowed tidal
anomalies to rise to 1.7-2.2 ft in the upper ches bay. Water
levels at bishop's head crested right at major flood thresholds,
while cambridge is expected to crest just above moderate flood
thresholds. Therefore, the coastal flood warning remains in
effect through midnight. In addition, the coastal flood
statement for sound side portions of NE nc is in effect through
10 pm, although water levels should fall this evening as winds
turn to the west. Strong wnw flow starting tonight will lead to
a strong ebb tide for ~24 hours from this evening through thu.

This will lead to significant drops in water levels across the
bay. Therefore, am not expecting any more coastal flooding after
the current high tide cycle. Does not appear to be enough to
lead to low water advisories given the initial elevated water
levels.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... Coastal flood warning until midnight edt tonight for mdz021.

Coastal flood advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for mdz022-
023.

Nc... None.

Va... Coastal flood advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for vaz075-
077-078-099.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 4 am edt Friday for anz635>638.

Small craft advisory until 6 am edt Friday for anz631>634-656-
658.

Gale warning until 4 am edt Thursday for anz630.

Gale warning until 10 pm edt Thursday for anz650-652-654.

Synopsis... Ajz cmf
near term... Ajz
short term... Ajz cmf
long term... Jdm
aviation... Ajz
marine... Eri
tides coastal flooding... Akq


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44089 13 mi18 min 68°F7 ft
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 29 mi48 min W 8 G 14 63°F 67°F997.1 hPa
OCIM2 - 8570283 - Ocean City Inlet, MD 30 mi48 min WNW 12 G 16 65°F 67°F996.2 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 41 mi48 min NW 23 G 26 62°F 66°F998.1 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 45 mi48 min W 24 G 28 998.3 hPa
44009 - DELAWARE BAY 26 NM Southeast of Cape May, NJ 49 mi28 min SSW 27 G 41 67°F 67°F7 ft993.5 hPa (-6.9)

Wind History for Ocean City Inlet, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wallops Flight Facility Airport, VA6 mi24 minW 13 G 2510.00 miPartly Cloudy63°F62°F97%996.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KWAL

Wind History from WAL (wind in knots)
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1 day agoW4W4W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW5N5N7N5N6N5NE9NE13NE13NE11NE11E10E11E8E7
2 days agoE4CalmCalmS7S6SW5S8S6S3W3W3NW6NW4N4NW7NW8NW7W8NW6NW954W6W6

Tide / Current Tables for Chincoteague Island, Blake Cove, Virginia
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Assateague Beach, Toms Cove, Chincoteague Bay, Virginia
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Assateague Beach
Click for Map
Wed -- 04:12 AM EDT     0.15 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:10 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:37 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 09:55 AM EDT     4.08 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:49 PM EDT     0.23 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:22 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:17 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 10:23 PM EDT     3.55 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.71.91.10.50.20.31.12.33.33.94.13.93.32.41.60.90.40.20.61.52.53.23.53.5

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.