Monday, July6, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Chincoteague, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:43AMSunset 8:30PM Monday July 6, 2020 7:58 PM EDT (23:58 UTC) Moonrise 8:59PMMoonset 5:58AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ652 Coastal Waters From Chincoteague To Parramore Island Va Out 20 Nm- 618 Pm Edt Mon Jul 6 2020
Tonight..S winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt late. Seas around 3 ft with a dominant period of 9 seconds. A slight chance of showers and tstms early this evening, then a chance of showers and tstms late this evening and early morning. A slight chance of showers and tstms late.
Tue..S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft with a dominant period of 9 seconds.
Tue night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 3 ft with a dominant period of 8 seconds.
Wed..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Mainly se swell with a dominant period of 8 seconds.
Wed night..SE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Mainly se swell with a dominant period of 8 seconds.
Thu..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft with a dominant period of 9 seconds. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Thu night..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft with a dominant period of 7 seconds. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Fri night..S winds 10 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Seas 4 to 5 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sat..SW winds 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Sat night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ600 618 Pm Edt Mon Jul 6 2020
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. High pressure becomes centered off the mid atlantic coast through Wednesday. Low pressure approaches from the south late in the week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Chincoteague, VA
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location: 37.95, -75.36     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 062343 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 743 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2020

SYNOPSIS. Weak high pressure will remain centered along the mid Atlantic coast today, before moving farther offshore on Tuesday. Low pressure moves from the deep south to the Carolina coast on Wednesday, and slowly tracks northeast to the mid Atlantic coast through Friday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/. As of 215 PM EDT Monday .

Latest analysis indicating ~1022 mb sfc high pressure centered well off the Carolina coast with sfc low pressure over Atlantic Canada. A weak sfc trough/frontal boundary extends SW from this low into the northern mid-Atlantic region. More importantly, the flow aloft is from the NW over the NE CONUS/New England, with the H5 gradient weakening farther S over the local area (with more of a WNW direction). A Severe Tstm Watch has been issued across the northern tier of the CWA (from Fluvanna Co to the northern Neck to Accomack VA). The main concern will be from strong heating that has occurred this aftn interacting with the NW flow aloft. SPC mesoanalysis depicts sfc-based CAPES on the order of 3000 J/Kg or more of VA W of the Bay (while it stays somewhat more stable/capped on the eastern shore until very late aftn/early evening). The models then show a greater enhancement of instability moving across the region (especially NE zones) by early evening as shortwave energy moves through the NW flow aloft. Latest PoPS are forecast to be 30-50% from the northern Piedmont to the northern Neck into early evening, buffered by 20-30% across the neighboring counties to the S and E of this (with <20% elsewhere). The best chance for strong to severe storms will likely occur into the evening as the shortwave tracks through and the NE zones (including the MD eastern shore). These zones will be the most favored as the modeled effective shear will be 25-30 kt (elsewhere it will tend to be 20-25 kt or less). PoPs on the MD eastern shore have been raised to 50-60% this evening. The main threats will be from strong/damaging winds with an isolated threat for hail also present in the strongest cores.

Slight chance/chance PoPs linger through 06- 09Z on the eastern shore. Otherwise, drying overnight with lows mainly 70-75F.

SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/. As of 345 PM EDT Monday .

On Tue, the trough aloft will be offshore of the Delmarva coast and overall conditions in the morning should be partly to mostly sunny w/ dry conditions. The overall mid level pattern will feature a developing weak trough over the TN Valley and deep south, with a weak ridge over the local area (especially near the coast). Latest 12Z/06 GFS/NAM/ECMWF generally remain in good agreement that the deeper moisture will stay S of the local area and therefore PoPs will again be mainly diurnal with just scattered 30-40% coverage across south central VA/interior NE NC and mostly 20% or lower elsewhere (did maintain ~30% PoP on the MD eastern shore for some seabreeze induced tstms in the aftn). Highs will be slightly cooler compared to Mon, primarily in the mid 80s to around 90F at the immediate coast and over most of NE NC, with lower 90s elsewhere. It will continue to be humid however. From Tue night into early Wed, the low moves ENE to near the SC coast, and then is expected to linger near the border of NC/SC coast during Wed with weak steering flow aloft. Have at least some PoPs across the southern zones all night Tue night, then spreading N during Wed, with likely PoPs Wed aftn over the S. It will be rather humid Wed with dew pts remaining in the lower to mid 70s even through the aftn hrs, but highs will be slightly cooler (especially in the S) due to more clouds, ranging from the lower to mid 80s S to the upper 80s/near 90 N. The potential for localized flash flooding increases Wed in the south where WPC has a day 3 Marginal for excessive rain, and all zones Thu as PWAT values surge to 1.75"+ along with the weak steering flow. Will have high chc to likely PoPs Thu with highs in the 80s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/. As of 345 PM EDT Monday .

After the coastal low moves northeast of the area, expect a broad upper trough to settle in across the eastern part of the United States through the weekend. This will keep a residual surface trough across the area as well leading to the typical summertime scattered afternoon/evening showers and storms. Best chances for this would be Friday and again Saturday with a little more upper moisture but each day will have chances for showers/storms. Temperatures seasonable generally in the upper 80s and lower 90s. Lows in the upper 60s/lower 70s.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. As of 745 PM EDT Monday .

A large cluster of tstms is located across NE MD and nrn DE as of 00z. This activity is expected to drift SE over the next few hours, and potentially affects SBY between 02-05z. This will bring the potential for MVFR or IFR conditions, primarily in vsby, and locally strong wind gusts. A chc of showers will then linger at SBY through 09z. Otherwise, there is only a slight chc of a shower or tstm through 06z at RIC/PHF, with mainly dry conditions at ORF/ECG. The wind will remain southerly tonight outside of any showers/tstms, with speeds of 5-8kt. Mostly sunny Tuesday with SCT aftn CU and a S to SSE wind of 8-10kt. There is a 20% chc of aftn showers/tstms at most sites, and ~30% at SBY.

Increased coverage of showers/tstms is expected Wednesday through Saturday as low pressure is expected to lift NE along the coastal Carolinas and Mid Atlantic coast. Patchy morning stratus is also possible Thursday through Saturday as low-level moisture increases.

MARINE. As of 345 PM EDT Monday .

Generally south winds tonight through Wednesday with the broad high off the coast and weak low pressure over the southeastern states. May be a few hours late this afternoon into this evening with gusts of up to 20 kt in the bay and coastal waters, but these gusts should diminish after midnight. The aforementioned southeast low is expected to move off the Carolina coast later Wed night. This will allow winds to turn onshore and increase. A great deal of uncertainty of the exact track and timing of the low itself, but there will likely be a period of small craft advisory conditions at some point Wednesday night into Thursday. The low will move northeast of the area by Friday, although a lingering trough will continue. As such, winds will briefly turn northwest on Thursday but then shift back south on Friday. Seas will be 1-2 ft in the bay tonight into Wed and 2-3 ft over the open waters.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. As of 345 PM EDT Monday .

Will be issuing another Coastal Flood Statement for Bayside of the MD eastern shore for marginal/nuisance tidal flooding with the upcoming high tide later tonight/early Tue AM due to the persistent southerly flow.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . None. NC . None. VA . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . LKB NEAR TERM . LKB SHORT TERM . LKB/TMG LONG TERM . MRD AVIATION . AJZ MARINE . MRD TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . AKQ


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 29 mi64 min S 14 G 17 82°F 88°F1016.7 hPa
OCIM2 - 8570283 - Ocean City Inlet, MD 30 mi64 min S 7 G 9.9 76°F 83°F1017.8 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 41 mi64 min S 15 G 19 87°F 87°F1015.4 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 45 mi64 min SSE 13 G 15 1016.8 hPa
44009 - DELAWARE BAY 26 NM Southeast of Cape May, NJ 49 mi68 min 3 ft

Wind History for Ocean City Inlet, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wallops Flight Facility Airport, VA6 mi64 minS 1410.00 miFair82°F77°F85%1016.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KWAL

Wind History from WAL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS9S10S10S8S7S10SW7SW7SW7SW7SW6SW5SW7SW6--S13S12S13S14S15S16S14S14S14
1 day agoSE6SE5SE4S5SE4S4S5W3SW3NW3CalmCalmSW4SW4SE5S6S9S11S11S11S16S13S11S11
2 days agoW4W4NW4W4W4W4W5NW4NW4NW5N5N8N7NE11NE14NE16E12E13E13E12E13E10E6E5

Tide / Current Tables for Chincoteague Island, Blake Cove, Virginia
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Assateague Beach, Toms Cove, Chincoteague Bay, Virginia
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Assateague Beach
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:55 AM EDT     -0.30 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:45 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:58 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 09:36 AM EDT     3.70 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:57 PM EDT     0.10 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:26 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:52 PM EDT     4.50 feet High Tide
Mon -- 09:58 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.71.70.7-0-0.30.112.133.63.73.22.51.710.30.10.51.42.63.64.34.54.2

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop



Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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