Sunday, August25, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Chincoteague, VA

Version 3.4
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7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:24AMSunset 7:44PM Sunday August 25, 2019 8:53 PM EDT (00:53 UTC) Moonrise 12:01AMMoonset 2:56PM Illumination 21% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ652 Coastal Waters From Chincoteague To Parramore Island Va Out 20 Nm- 704 Pm Edt Sun Aug 25 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through Tuesday afternoon...
Tonight..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 7 ft with a dominant period of 6 seconds. Scattered showers.
Mon..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 7 ft with a dominant period of 7 seconds. A chance of showers in the morning.
Mon night..E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 7 ft with a dominant period of 8 seconds.
Tue..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft with a dominant period of 8 seconds.
Tue night..E winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 5 to 6 ft.
Wed..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed night..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Seas around 3 ft. A chance of showers.
Thu..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft. A chance of showers in the morning.
Thu night..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas around 2 ft.
ANZ600 704 Pm Edt Sun Aug 25 2019
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. A cold front will remain stalled well to our south through tonight. High pressure will become centered over new england early Monday through Tuesday, as low pressure is slow to lift northeast well off the carolina coast.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Chincoteague, VA
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location: 37.95, -75.36     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 252336
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
736 pm edt Sun aug 25 2019

Synopsis
A cold front will remain stalled well to our south through
tonight. High pressure will become centered over new england
early Monday through Tuesday as low pressure is slow to lift
northeast well off the carolina coast.

Near term until 6 am Monday morning
As of 320 pm edt Sunday...

latest weather analysis reveals 1028mb surface high pressure
centered over atlantic canada and northern new england wedging
down east of the appalachians into the mid-atlantic. To the
south, sfc cold front remains well south of the region, draped
across S ga fl panhandle and extending out offshore of the
carolina coast.

Visible Sat imagery shows sct CU have developed mainly along
and north of us-460 over central and eastern va and the lower
eastern shore, with bkn-sct mid-level cloudiness closer to the
front along the va nc coast and into NE nc along the albemarle
sound, where low level moisture remains the highest. Have
allowed for some iso to widely sct showers in the grids as
modest convergence offshore of the S nj de coast nudges toward
the sby oxb area from late aftn into this evening.

Clouds briefly diminish with loss of heating this evening, but
expect re-development, W at least partial coverage of low
stratus toward morning. A few sprinkles or some patchy dz also
possible toward daybreak along the bay and over the eastern
shore. Lows in the 60s, though some mid to upper 50s again
possible inland.

Short term 6 am Monday morning through Wednesday
As of 320 pm edt Sunday...

model preference continued to follow a wpc (gfs ecmwf) blend.

Models are slowly coming into better agreement with weak sfc
low NE off the ga north fl coast late tonight, with the system
sliding slowly NE well off the carolina coast through the day on
Tuesday.

Onshore flow increases a bit tomorrow, which allows for a
greater coverage of clouds and also a bit more in the way of
isolated to widely sct showers (especially east of i-95). Sfc
high stays parked over new england, with resultant E to NE low
level onshore flow lingering over the local area. Deeper
moisture looks to stay offshore, but will see a gradual increase
in dewpts and precipitable water values through midweek. Have
maintained mostly chance pops for both Tue wed, primarily due
to the moisture overrunning the wedging high rather than the sfc
low itself (as it will be well offshore).

At this time, given a farther offshore track, weak shear and
rather ragged appearance, trends are slightly less bullish
regarding further development in the short term. That said, we
will need to continue monitoring potential further tropical
development evolution with this system through midweek. Highs
will be mainly in the upper 70s lower 80s mon, and 80-85f tue,
with lows in the 60s Sun night Mon am and mid 60s to lower 70s
mon night Tue am. Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy.

Long term Wednesday night through Sunday
As of 345 pm edt Sunday...

cold front will be moving off our coast early Thursday with sfc
high pressure building into the area. Pops were kept in (mainly
east of i-95) Thursday. Downslope flow will keep most of the
area dry through the extended forecast period. However, the
front stalls along the carolina coast, which may bring a few
showers to NE nc and va beach. Temperature won't drop too much
behind the front. High will be mainly in the low-mid 80 and lows
in the 60s inland to 70 near the ocean and bay thur-fri.

Temperatures then begin to climb once again ahead of another
cold front next weekend. Temperatures may reach the low 90s
along the i-95 corridor Saturday and Sunday. The beaches will be
slightly cooler with temperatures reaching the mid 80s. Chance
of showers and thunderstorms return for Sunday afternoon with
the font.

Aviation 00z Monday through Friday
As of 730 pm edt Sunday...

sct-bkn ac deck will start off the period withVFR cigs. Persistant
ne flow will likely result in sct-bkn st layer arnd 2k ft after 06z.

These CIGS will hold through Mon morning then lift a bit along with
sct shwrs Mon thru the aftrn. Gusty NE winds 15-25 kts at the coast
diminish to arnd 10 kts away from the water.

Outlook: low pressure off the coast and high pressure to the NE will
keep an easterly flow across the region through tue, along with chc for
shwrs and potential for sub-vfr ceilings from time to time.

Marine
As of 410 pm edt Sunday...

late this aftn, sfc high pressure was centered over NRN new
england, with a frontal boundary well S and E off the coastal
carolinas. NE winds were 10-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt over the
marine waters. Waves were 1-3 ft, with seas 4-7 ft.

The high will remain over NRN new england tonight into early
tue, as an inverted trough develops along the dissipated frontal
boundary. Weak low pressure will lift NE well offshore along
this boundary late tonight into wed. This will result in strong
ne winds over most of the waters into Mon night, before
weakening and becoming NE or E late Mon night into early wed
morning.

Sca flags will continue into tonight for the lower james and the
currituck snd, thru Mon aftn evening for the ches bay, and thru
tue for the entire coastal waters. By Tue night and wed, the
wind will be ne-se less than 10 kt.

Coastal flooding tides
As of 730 pm edt Sunday...

some minor coastal flooding possible across the ches bay oxb Mon due
to the persistant NE flow. In addition, high rip current risk through
mon eve for the mid atlantic beaches due to the persistant NE flow,
increasing rough surf and swells.

Equipment
As of 330 pm edt Sunday...

kdox radar is offline this afternoon due to an equipment issue.

Technicians are awaiting additional parts to complete repairs.

There is also a separate communications issue that is preventing
updates through usual free text message (ftm) product. Further
status updates will be passed along as they become available.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 10 pm edt Monday for anz634.

Small craft advisory until 6 pm edt Monday for anz630>632.

Small craft advisory until 1 am edt Monday for anz633.

Small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for anz638.

Small craft advisory until 6 pm edt Tuesday for anz650-652-654-
656-658.

Synopsis... Mam
near term... Mam
short term... Ajb mam
long term... Cp
aviation... Mpr
marine... Ajz tmg


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44089 13 mi53 min 71°F6 ft
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 29 mi53 min NNE 8 G 12 71°F 77°F1019.7 hPa (+0.0)
OCIM2 - 8570283 - Ocean City Inlet, MD 30 mi53 min NE 6 G 12 71°F 73°F1021.1 hPa (-0.4)
OCSM2 31 mi173 min 5 ft
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 41 mi53 min ENE 14 G 21 71°F 78°F1021 hPa (+0.0)
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 45 mi53 min 1020.7 hPa (+0.3)
44009 - DELAWARE BAY 26 NM Southeast of Cape May, NJ 49 mi63 min NE 23 G 27 73°F 76°F9 ft1019.3 hPa (-0.0)

Wind History for Ocean City Inlet, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wallops Flight Facility Airport, VA6 mi59 minN 1110.00 miPartly Cloudy71°F61°F71%1020 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KWAL

Wind History from WAL (wind in knots)
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1 day agoN9N7N8N5N6N7NW4N7N5NW8N7N7N10N7N8N7N8NE16NE15NE17NE16
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2 days agoS7SW6W5SW11W5W4W3CalmCalmCalmS5--W7W8W63N4E5E6NE11N11
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N10N8NW6

Tide / Current Tables for Chincoteague Island, Blake Cove, Virginia
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Assateague Beach, Toms Cove, Chincoteague Bay, Virginia
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Assateague Beach
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:01 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 03:31 AM EDT     3.16 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:25 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:01 AM EDT     0.61 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:53 PM EDT     3.91 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:55 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:41 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 11:11 PM EDT     0.56 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.52.22.83.13.12.82.21.61.10.70.60.81.52.43.33.83.93.73.22.51.81.20.80.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.