Saturday, April4, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Chincoteague, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:40AMSunset 7:30PM Saturday April 4, 2020 11:43 PM EDT (03:43 UTC) Moonrise 2:27PMMoonset 3:50AM Illumination 91% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ652 Coastal Waters From Chincoteague To Parramore Island Va Out 20 Nm- 1027 Pm Edt Sat Apr 4 2020
.small craft advisory in effect through late Sunday night...
Overnight..E winds 5 to 10 kt, diminishing to 5 kt late. Seas 6 to 8 ft. Mainly E swell with a dominant period of 13 seconds.
Sun..SW winds 5 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 6 to 8 ft. Mainly E swell with a dominant period of 13 seconds.
Sun night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 6 to 7 ft with a dominant period of 13 seconds. A chance of showers after midnight.
Mon..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W late in the morning, then becoming ne in the afternoon. Seas 5 to 6 ft. Mainly E swell with a dominant period of 13 seconds. A chance of showers in the morning.
Mon night..SE winds 5 kt, becoming S after midnight. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Mainly E swell with a dominant period of 11 seconds.
Tue..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers in the afternoon.
Tue night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of rain.
Wed..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Wed night..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu night..SW winds 15 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
ANZ600 1027 Pm Edt Sat Apr 4 2020
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. Low pressure will continue moving well off the mid atlantic coast this evening. High pressure builds in from the northwest and will settle across the local area tonight and Sunday. A weak cold front crosses the region on Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Chincoteague, VA
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location: 37.95, -75.36     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 050137 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 937 PM EDT Sat Apr 4 2020

SYNOPSIS. High pressure builds over the area overnight and moves offshore Sunday afternoon. A weak cold front approaches the area late Sunday before crossing part of the area on Monday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/. As of 930 PM EDT Saturday .

Winds have become light and variable this evening as high pressure is settling over the region. Much of the cloud cover has eroded, however stubborn low clouds near the coast have hung on early this evening. Expect these low clouds to dissipate and much of the area should start out partly cloudy to mostly clear tonight before additional cloud cover moves in from the west overnight ahead of a weak cold front. Overnight low temps will generally be in the lower 40s.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/. As of 400 PM EDT Saturday .

Weak return SSW flow commences on Sun, as high pressure moves offshore. Continued dry with highs around 70 inland, with mainly mid to upper 60s near the bay/coastal SE zones, and in the lower to mid 60s over the Lower Ern Shore. Shortwave energy in WNW flow aloft will approach the area late Sun into Sun night. At the same time, a weak cold front slowly moves south toward the area (but remains to our NW through Sun night). A few showers will likely develop to our W late Sun before potentially moving across the area Sun night into Mon morning. Will keep it dry through 00z Mon. Will have PoPs of 15-30% over the area Sun night to account for isolated to perhaps scattered showers. Lows Sun night will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s. A 15-30% chc (highest SE) for a few showers will continue Mon morning, as the aforementioned front crosses the region from N to S. Some re-development of showers is expected along/ahead of the front Mon aftn (mainly over far srn VA/NE NC), as temps warm into the lower to mid 70s and dew points rise into the mid 50s. Forecast soundings do show some weak instability across NE NC Mon aftn, so cannot rule out a rumble of thunder or two (although upper forcing will be meager at best). Elsewhere (on the north side of the front), pcpn chances end by mid to late aftn. Warmer on Mon with highs ranging from the mid to upper 60s near the coast to the lower to mid 70s elsewhere. The weak boundary moves back N as a warm front Mon night, as low pressure tracks ewd across the nrn Plains. Will keep slight chc PoPs across NE NC through 06z Tue, with a slight chc of a shower late over the Lower MD Ern Shore.

A little more warmer on Tue, esply over VA/NC. More shortwave energy/weak trough in WNW flow aloft will approach and move into the area, esply for the aftn. Chance of showers, maybe an isolated tstm Tue aftn/early Tue evening. Highs will range from the mid 60s to near 70 over the Lower MD and VA ern shore, to the mid to upper 70s inland/piedmont of VA/NC.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/. As of 400 PM EDT Saturday .

The period begins with a weak low skirting across New England on Wednesday. Likely won't be much moisture associated with this system for our area, but do have slight chance to chance pops mainly across the northern third of the area. Attention then turns to a stronger low moving from central Canada to eastern Canada on Thursday. A cold front will approach our area from the west, with model differences on the timing of the frontal passage. Leaning towards the ECMWF solution which progresses the front much faster than the GFS. The ECMWF has the front crossing late Thursday into early Friday, while the GFS doesn't have the front crossing until late Friday into early Saturday. Did leave slight chance pops in for Friday to account for the model differences.

Temps well above normal Wednesday and Thursday with high temps Wednesday in the lower 80s and upper 70s on Thursday, a bit cooler each day along the eastern shore. Cooler and slightly below normal on Friday and Saturday with high temps in the lower 60s.

AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. As of 820 PM EDT Saturday .

Clouds continue to slowly erode across the east tonight, and at the same time ceilings are slowly lifting, although some stubborn MVFR clouds continue early this evening at eastern TAF sites. Should become clear to partly cloudy late tonight before clouds begin to move in from the west ahead of an approaching front. Expect SCT to at times BKN cloud cover on Sunday however ceilings should be mainly VFR. Easterly winds will become light and variable on Sunday as high pressure sits over the area.

Outlook . Small chances for showers expected Sunday night, Monday, and again Tuesday afternoon/evening, with occasional degraded flight conditions possible.

MARINE. As of 330 PM EDT Saturday .

SFC low pressure continues to move E well offshore this evening, with winds continuing to diminish overnight. SCAs for coastal waters remain in effect through Sun night due to seas 7-9 ft continuing overnight before gradually subsiding to 5-6 ft Sun aftn/Sun night. This is due to a 12-13 sec long period swell associated with the offshore low pressure system. SCAs for the mouth of the Ches Bay remain in effect through Sun afternoon due to 3-5 ft waves.

High pressure settles into the region tomorrow, before drifting SE off the coast tomorrow evening. Winds will be light and variable at generally 5-10 kt across all coastal waters through the day, becoming S around 10 kt overnight. A weak cold front is expected to move through Mon with an associated N shift to the winds. The front is then expected to wash out or lift back N Mon night as winds begin to shift to S.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. As of 920 PM EDT Saturday .

Tidal anomalies quickly on the rise this evening over the middle and upper bay following a pair of strong flood tides. Coastal Flood Advisory will continue for the middle and lower Bay, but given positive tidal anomalies of ~1.5 to 2 ft, have pushed up to a Coastal Flood warning through Sunday afternoon for the Bay side of the lower MD Eastern Shore and for the Northern Neck for areas along the Potomac River. Greatest impacts on the MD side will be between Bishops Head and Crisfield, but solid minor flood thresholds look to be met at Cambridge for the next couple of tide cycles. Another round of advisories may be needed for the middle and even lower Ches Bay for tomorrow . but for now will hold off, as we'll be close to advisory/statement cutoff. After that, another round of advisories or statements may be needed for Sunday night tide cycle. Thereafter, flow turns offshore later Sunday night and into the week ahead. Would therefore expect anomalies to steadily relax for Monday tide cycles and beyond.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . Coastal Flood Warning until 6 PM EDT Sunday for MDZ021>023. NC . None. VA . Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for VAZ078- 084>086-089-090-093-095>097-523>525. Coastal Flood Warning until 6 PM EDT Sunday for VAZ075-077. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Monday for ANZ650-652-654- 656-658. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ634.

SYNOPSIS . TMG NEAR TERM . CMF SHORT TERM . ERI/TMG LONG TERM . CMF AVIATION . CMF MARINE . RMM TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . AKQ


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 29 mi55 min E 6 G 7
OCIM2 - 8570283 - Ocean City Inlet, MD 30 mi61 min Calm G 1 45°F 49°F1019.4 hPa
OCSM2 31 mi163 min 5 ft
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 41 mi61 min SE 6 G 6 50°F 53°F1018.3 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 45 mi55 min E 8.9 G 9.9
44009 - DELAWARE BAY 26 NM Southeast of Cape May, NJ 49 mi53 min Calm G 1.9 45°F 49°F8 ft1015.1 hPa (+1.7)

Wind History for Ocean City Inlet, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wallops Flight Facility Airport, VA6 mi49 minN 010.00 miFair44°F41°F89%1018.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KWAL

Wind History from WAL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN9N6NW6NW6NW7NW9NW8NW6NW5NE8NE13NE13NE19NE15
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--------NW4NW7

Tide / Current Tables for Chincoteague Island, Blake Cove, Virginia
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Assateague Beach, Toms Cove, Chincoteague Bay, Virginia
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Assateague Beach
Click for Map
Sat -- 04:49 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:08 AM EDT     3.89 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:41 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 12:09 PM EDT     0.01 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:27 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:56 PM EDT     3.71 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:27 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.41.1233.63.93.73.22.41.60.90.300.2122.93.53.73.42.81.91.10.4

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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