Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Chincoteague, VA
March 29, 2024 4:09 AM EDT (08:09 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:49 AM Sunset 7:24 PM Moonrise 11:01 PM Moonset 7:48 AM |
ANZ652 Coastal Waters From Chincoteague To Parramore Island Va Out 20 Nm- 205 Am Edt Fri Mar 29 2024
.gale warning in effect until 10 am edt this morning - .
Rest of tonight - NW winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Dominant period 10 seconds.
Fri - NW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming W late. Seas 5 to 6 ft. Dominant period 10 seconds.
Fri night - NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Dominant period 11 seconds.
Sat - W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Dominant period 10 seconds.
Sat night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Dominant period 10 seconds.
Sun - W winds 10 kt, becoming nw in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Mainly S swell. Dominant period 11 seconds.
Sun night - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Dominant period 11 seconds. A chance of showers.
Mon - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 3 ft. A chance of showers.
Mon night - E winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming se after midnight. Seas around 3 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight.
ANZ600 205 Am Edt Fri Mar 29 2024
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers -
coastal low pressure deepens well off the mid atlantic coast early this morning, bringing elevated northwest winds through today. Benign marine conditions are then expected for the weekend and into early next week.
coastal low pressure deepens well off the mid atlantic coast early this morning, bringing elevated northwest winds through today. Benign marine conditions are then expected for the weekend and into early next week.
Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 290744 AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 344 AM EDT Fri Mar 29 2024
SYNOPSIS
A cold front sliding across the area pushes offshore tonight, with rain gradually tapering off. Winds will become gusty tonight into Friday. Northwesterly flow will allow weak disturbances to pass through this weekend and into early next week, so expect the unsettled pattern to continue. Temperatures will warm well above normal for Easter weekend.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 325 AM EDT Friday...
Latest sfc analysis shows yesterday's cold front already well offshore. Low pressure that formed along the front is now tracking NE well off the Mid-Atlantic coast. Meanwhile, a large area of strong high pressure located over the Gulf Coast is building toward the local area. Aloft, NW flow is in place as the trough axis pushes offshore. Skies have cleared out and temps have dropped as low as the mid 30s in a few rural locations. Otherwise, temps are in the upper 30s-low 40s. Lows this morning are expected to reach the mid- upper 30s across the FA.
The pressure gradient between the departing low pressure and the high pressure building in will allow for gusty conditions. WNW winds will be ~15mph today with gusts of 20-30mph. Skies will start out sunny this morning, then scattered cloud cover builds in as weak shortwave energy and moisture aloft travel through the region. Temps will be seasonably mild with highs in the mid 60s in the piedmont and around 60/low 60s in the east. Winds diminish tonight as the high builds in further and the pressure gradient slackens. Winds will become southwesterly overnight and high clouds will build in from the west. Thus, temps will not be quite as cold with lows in the mid 40s S of I-64 and upper 30s-low 40s N.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
As of 345 AM EDT Friday...
The southern surface high will slide off the southeast coast for Saturday, with NW flow aloft continuing behind the departing east coast trough. This will allow for numerous disturbances to cross into the region from the Ohio Valley, resulting in periods of increasing clouds and eventually some scattered showers by late in the Easter weekend. 00z models continue to keep Saturday almost completely dry. Extreme northern portions of the FA could see a shower or two Saturday afternoon. PoPs in these spots are <20%. There will, however, still be increased cloud cover. Expecting mostly cloudy skies N of I-64 and partly cloudy skies to the S. Mild again on Saturday with highs in the low 70s W of the Ches Bay and low-mid 60s on the Eastern Shore.
Northwesterly flow persists to begin Easter Sunday, ahead of slight ridging building into the MS River Valley area. However, the next disturbance/moisture riding along the northern periphery of the upper ridge crosses into the Ohio River Valley and into the Mid- Atlantic on Sunday. Models are consistent with showing some rain making it into our CWA late in the day Sunday into Monday, as a weak backdoor front drops across the area. There is a SChc for showers Sunday afternoon, increasing to a Chc PoP across the northern half of the FA late in the evening. There is some uncertainty regarding temperatures still, since this will depend on how far the front drops. Current forecast has highs in the mid-upper 70s S of I-64 and upper 60s-mid 70s N of I-64 and on the Eastern Shore.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 345 AM EDT Friday...
The low amplitude ridge aloft translates over the southeast coast, its axis crossing into the local area Monday night. Meanwhile at the sfc, large high pressure pushes off to sea to the southeast as strong low pressure approaches the Ohio valley/Great Lakes Monday into Tuesday. The presence of a warm front in the Mid-Atlantic leads to some uncertainty in temperatures and precip. South of the front, temps will approach 80 on Mon/Tues with temps 10-20F degrees cooler on the N side. Current forecast has the front setting up roughly along the I-64 corridor Mon, then pressing slightly N for Tues.
Overnight lows for Mon and Tues night will be in the 50s. Highest chance for showers will be along and N of the front. Keeping PoPs mostly below 55%, except along the far northern fringes Monday night and Tues where PoPs are 55-65%. Sfc low pressure presses into the Northeast Tuesday night into Wednesday, dragging a cold front along behind it. Global models do have some slight disagreements on the strength/orientation of the trough aloft supporting it, but looks to be decently strong regardless. A line of showers will cross the region Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Also, introduced a slight chance of thunder given the LREF mean CAPE has 300-400 J/KG.
Strong high pressure builds in front the W behind the front and a strong ridge sets up over the central CONUS, leading to dry conditions for Wednesday afternoon through the end of the week.
Highs on Wed will range through the 60s, then cooler on Thurs with highs in the upper 50s. Returning to colder overnight temps for Wed/Thurs night with lows in the upper 30s-low 40s.
AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 150 AM EDT Friday...
VFR prevails through the 06z/29 TAF period. Skies have cleared out behind yesterday's front as high pressure builds in from the SW. FEW-SCT clouds are expected through the day tomorrow. Winds start out around 10kt out of the NW tonight. Tomorrow, wind increase and become westerly. Gusts will be 15-25kt through the afternoon.
Outlook: Generally VFR conditions are expected through the weekend, though with increased cloud cover. A warm front sets up across northern portions of the FA late in the weekend and into early next week, bringing the potential for showers and flight restrictions.
MARINE
As of 325 PM EDT Thursday...
Afternoon analysis shows elongated low pressure off the Carolina coast with high pressure noted over the NE Gulf Coast. Winds locally are N 15-25 kt with gusts 25-30 kt. Waves in the bay are 2-3 ft with 3-4 ft likely near the mouth. Seas are highest (4-6 ft) across the southern waters with 3-5 ft N.
Low pressure lifts NE offshore tonight. Steepest pressure gradient and strongest winds will be across the southern coastal waters this evening, spreading northward tonight. Gale Warnings remain in place offshore with Small Craft Advisories for the remaining waters. 12z guidance and local wind probabilities continue to trend downward with respect to sustained gale conditions in the Ches Bay. That said, am still expecting a 3-6 hour period where gusts average 30-35 kt tonight, especially for the northern bay zones as low pressure lifts northward. The pressure gradient will slacken quickly Friday morning with 20-25 kt offshore and 15-20 kt in the Ches Bay.
Westerly winds 15-20 kt persist into the afternoon and an extension of the river SCAs may be required as deeper mixing over land areas potentially bleed into higher gusts for the rivers. Wave heights in the bay peak tonight at 3-5 ft while seas offshore increase to 5-7 ft before slowly falling off in the offshore flow on Friday. Expect all waters to fall below their respective SCA thresholds by Friday evening. High pressure builds into the region for the weekend but a series of low amplitude disturbances aloft may allow for scattered showers across the northern waters Saturday. A front drops southward and stalls into early next week, bringing the potential for additional showers but winds/waves/seas are expected to remain below SCA thresholds.
HYDROLOGY
As of 815 PM EDT Thursday...
Flood Warning now in effect for Meherrin River at Lawrenceville. With lighter rainfall amounts over the headwaters, forecasts have accordingly come down a bit with this latest model cycle. That said, we continue to monitor river levels, with greatest concern for Meherrin River at Emporia, Blackwater near Franklin, and locations along the Nottoway River (mainly at Sebrell by this weekend). Northern forecast points briefly bump into action stage tonight into Friday along the Appomattox River from Farmville to Matoaca. See water.noaa.gov for site-specific details.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ630>632-634.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for ANZ633- 635>638.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ650- 652-654.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ656- 658.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 344 AM EDT Fri Mar 29 2024
SYNOPSIS
A cold front sliding across the area pushes offshore tonight, with rain gradually tapering off. Winds will become gusty tonight into Friday. Northwesterly flow will allow weak disturbances to pass through this weekend and into early next week, so expect the unsettled pattern to continue. Temperatures will warm well above normal for Easter weekend.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 325 AM EDT Friday...
Latest sfc analysis shows yesterday's cold front already well offshore. Low pressure that formed along the front is now tracking NE well off the Mid-Atlantic coast. Meanwhile, a large area of strong high pressure located over the Gulf Coast is building toward the local area. Aloft, NW flow is in place as the trough axis pushes offshore. Skies have cleared out and temps have dropped as low as the mid 30s in a few rural locations. Otherwise, temps are in the upper 30s-low 40s. Lows this morning are expected to reach the mid- upper 30s across the FA.
The pressure gradient between the departing low pressure and the high pressure building in will allow for gusty conditions. WNW winds will be ~15mph today with gusts of 20-30mph. Skies will start out sunny this morning, then scattered cloud cover builds in as weak shortwave energy and moisture aloft travel through the region. Temps will be seasonably mild with highs in the mid 60s in the piedmont and around 60/low 60s in the east. Winds diminish tonight as the high builds in further and the pressure gradient slackens. Winds will become southwesterly overnight and high clouds will build in from the west. Thus, temps will not be quite as cold with lows in the mid 40s S of I-64 and upper 30s-low 40s N.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
As of 345 AM EDT Friday...
The southern surface high will slide off the southeast coast for Saturday, with NW flow aloft continuing behind the departing east coast trough. This will allow for numerous disturbances to cross into the region from the Ohio Valley, resulting in periods of increasing clouds and eventually some scattered showers by late in the Easter weekend. 00z models continue to keep Saturday almost completely dry. Extreme northern portions of the FA could see a shower or two Saturday afternoon. PoPs in these spots are <20%. There will, however, still be increased cloud cover. Expecting mostly cloudy skies N of I-64 and partly cloudy skies to the S. Mild again on Saturday with highs in the low 70s W of the Ches Bay and low-mid 60s on the Eastern Shore.
Northwesterly flow persists to begin Easter Sunday, ahead of slight ridging building into the MS River Valley area. However, the next disturbance/moisture riding along the northern periphery of the upper ridge crosses into the Ohio River Valley and into the Mid- Atlantic on Sunday. Models are consistent with showing some rain making it into our CWA late in the day Sunday into Monday, as a weak backdoor front drops across the area. There is a SChc for showers Sunday afternoon, increasing to a Chc PoP across the northern half of the FA late in the evening. There is some uncertainty regarding temperatures still, since this will depend on how far the front drops. Current forecast has highs in the mid-upper 70s S of I-64 and upper 60s-mid 70s N of I-64 and on the Eastern Shore.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 345 AM EDT Friday...
The low amplitude ridge aloft translates over the southeast coast, its axis crossing into the local area Monday night. Meanwhile at the sfc, large high pressure pushes off to sea to the southeast as strong low pressure approaches the Ohio valley/Great Lakes Monday into Tuesday. The presence of a warm front in the Mid-Atlantic leads to some uncertainty in temperatures and precip. South of the front, temps will approach 80 on Mon/Tues with temps 10-20F degrees cooler on the N side. Current forecast has the front setting up roughly along the I-64 corridor Mon, then pressing slightly N for Tues.
Overnight lows for Mon and Tues night will be in the 50s. Highest chance for showers will be along and N of the front. Keeping PoPs mostly below 55%, except along the far northern fringes Monday night and Tues where PoPs are 55-65%. Sfc low pressure presses into the Northeast Tuesday night into Wednesday, dragging a cold front along behind it. Global models do have some slight disagreements on the strength/orientation of the trough aloft supporting it, but looks to be decently strong regardless. A line of showers will cross the region Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Also, introduced a slight chance of thunder given the LREF mean CAPE has 300-400 J/KG.
Strong high pressure builds in front the W behind the front and a strong ridge sets up over the central CONUS, leading to dry conditions for Wednesday afternoon through the end of the week.
Highs on Wed will range through the 60s, then cooler on Thurs with highs in the upper 50s. Returning to colder overnight temps for Wed/Thurs night with lows in the upper 30s-low 40s.
AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 150 AM EDT Friday...
VFR prevails through the 06z/29 TAF period. Skies have cleared out behind yesterday's front as high pressure builds in from the SW. FEW-SCT clouds are expected through the day tomorrow. Winds start out around 10kt out of the NW tonight. Tomorrow, wind increase and become westerly. Gusts will be 15-25kt through the afternoon.
Outlook: Generally VFR conditions are expected through the weekend, though with increased cloud cover. A warm front sets up across northern portions of the FA late in the weekend and into early next week, bringing the potential for showers and flight restrictions.
MARINE
As of 325 PM EDT Thursday...
Afternoon analysis shows elongated low pressure off the Carolina coast with high pressure noted over the NE Gulf Coast. Winds locally are N 15-25 kt with gusts 25-30 kt. Waves in the bay are 2-3 ft with 3-4 ft likely near the mouth. Seas are highest (4-6 ft) across the southern waters with 3-5 ft N.
Low pressure lifts NE offshore tonight. Steepest pressure gradient and strongest winds will be across the southern coastal waters this evening, spreading northward tonight. Gale Warnings remain in place offshore with Small Craft Advisories for the remaining waters. 12z guidance and local wind probabilities continue to trend downward with respect to sustained gale conditions in the Ches Bay. That said, am still expecting a 3-6 hour period where gusts average 30-35 kt tonight, especially for the northern bay zones as low pressure lifts northward. The pressure gradient will slacken quickly Friday morning with 20-25 kt offshore and 15-20 kt in the Ches Bay.
Westerly winds 15-20 kt persist into the afternoon and an extension of the river SCAs may be required as deeper mixing over land areas potentially bleed into higher gusts for the rivers. Wave heights in the bay peak tonight at 3-5 ft while seas offshore increase to 5-7 ft before slowly falling off in the offshore flow on Friday. Expect all waters to fall below their respective SCA thresholds by Friday evening. High pressure builds into the region for the weekend but a series of low amplitude disturbances aloft may allow for scattered showers across the northern waters Saturday. A front drops southward and stalls into early next week, bringing the potential for additional showers but winds/waves/seas are expected to remain below SCA thresholds.
HYDROLOGY
As of 815 PM EDT Thursday...
Flood Warning now in effect for Meherrin River at Lawrenceville. With lighter rainfall amounts over the headwaters, forecasts have accordingly come down a bit with this latest model cycle. That said, we continue to monitor river levels, with greatest concern for Meherrin River at Emporia, Blackwater near Franklin, and locations along the Nottoway River (mainly at Sebrell by this weekend). Northern forecast points briefly bump into action stage tonight into Friday along the Appomattox River from Farmville to Matoaca. See water.noaa.gov for site-specific details.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ630>632-634.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for ANZ633- 635>638.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ650- 652-654.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ656- 658.
Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
44089 | 14 mi | 44 min | 47°F | 4 ft | ||||
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA | 29 mi | 52 min | NW 4.1G | 47°F | 47°F | 29.88 | ||
OCIM2 - 8570283 - Ocean City Inlet, MD | 30 mi | 52 min | NW 9.9G | 44°F | 47°F | 29.83 | ||
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD | 41 mi | 52 min | NNW 16G | 47°F | 47°F | 29.91 | ||
44084 | 44 mi | 44 min | 47°F | 2 ft | ||||
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA | 45 mi | 52 min | WNW 23G | 29.94 |
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No data
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
KWAL WALLOPS FLIGHT FACILITY,VA | 6 sm | 15 min | NW 08 | 10 sm | Clear | 43°F | 34°F | 70% | 29.89 |
Tide / Current for Chincoteague Island, Blake Cove, Virginia
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Chincoteague Island, Blake Cove, Virginia, Tide feet
Tide / Current for Assateague Beach, Toms Cove, Chincoteague Bay, Virginia
EDIT (hide/show)  HelpAssateague Beach
Click for Map
Fri -- 05:34 AM EDT 0.21 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:50 AM EDT Sunrise
Fri -- 08:47 AM EDT Moonset
Fri -- 11:08 AM EDT 3.19 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:25 PM EDT 0.39 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:22 PM EDT Sunset
Fri -- 11:24 PM EDT 3.76 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Fri -- 05:34 AM EDT 0.21 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:50 AM EDT Sunrise
Fri -- 08:47 AM EDT Moonset
Fri -- 11:08 AM EDT 3.19 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:25 PM EDT 0.39 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:22 PM EDT Sunset
Fri -- 11:24 PM EDT 3.76 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Assateague Beach, Toms Cove, Chincoteague Bay, Virginia, Tide feet
12 am |
3.6 |
1 am |
3 |
2 am |
2.2 |
3 am |
1.3 |
4 am |
0.7 |
5 am |
0.3 |
6 am |
0.3 |
7 am |
0.7 |
8 am |
1.6 |
9 am |
2.4 |
10 am |
3 |
11 am |
3.2 |
12 pm |
3.1 |
1 pm |
2.7 |
2 pm |
2 |
3 pm |
1.3 |
4 pm |
0.7 |
5 pm |
0.4 |
6 pm |
0.5 |
7 pm |
0.9 |
8 pm |
1.8 |
9 pm |
2.7 |
10 pm |
3.4 |
11 pm |
3.7 |
Dover AFB, DE,
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