Saturday, December14, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Chincoteague, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:09AMSunset 4:44PM Saturday December 14, 2019 11:12 AM EST (16:12 UTC) Moonrise 7:16PMMoonset 9:23AM Illumination 91% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ652 Coastal Waters From Chincoteague To Parramore Island Va Out 20 Nm- 937 Am Est Sat Dec 14 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through Sunday afternoon...
Rest of today..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft with a dominant period of 10 seconds. Areas of fog late this morning. A chance of rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm late this morning.
Tonight..W winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 7 ft with a dominant period of 10 seconds, subsiding to 4 to 5 ft with a dominant period of 10 seconds late.
Sun..W winds 15 to 20 kt. Gusts up to 30 kt in the morning. Seas 4 to 5 ft with a dominant period of 10 seconds, subsiding to 3 to 4 ft with a dominant period of 10 seconds late.
Sun night..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming N after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft with a dominant period of 10 seconds.
Mon..E winds 10 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas around 3 ft.
Mon night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. A chance of rain after midnight.
Tue..SW winds 20 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft. Rain.
Tue night..NW winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft. Showers likely in the evening.
Wed..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft.
ANZ600 937 Am Est Sat Dec 14 2019
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. Low pressure tracks northeast near the mid-atlantic coast early this morning. The low intensifies off the new england coast tonight and Sunday as high pressure builds in from the west.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Chincoteague, VA
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location: 37.95, -75.36     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 141557 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1057 AM EST Sat Dec 14 2019

SYNOPSIS. Low pressure tracks northeast along the eastern seaboard through today. High pressure returns Sunday before the next system impacts the region late Monday and Tuesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. As of 1100 AM EST Saturday .

Latest weather analysis reveals ~996mb sfc low pressure over the upper eastern shore. Associated coastal trough/boundary extends along the Mid-Atlantic/Southeast coast late this morning. Regional radar mosaic showing ongoing light rain/drizzle along the coastal plain. Rain has diminished as expected over the piedmont. However, low stratus continues to keep a lid on temperatures at midday. Accordingly, have dropped temperatures back a few degrees per time-lagged HRRR/RAP through mid-Aftn.

Showers will push offshore by afternoon, with visibilities gradually recovering as fog continues to scour out. Becoming partly cloudy inland, eventually clearing out across Hampton Roads by late aftn/early evening as low ejects up into the northeast/New England by late tonight.

Sky become mostly clear to partly cloudy tonight. SW winds will increase late this afternoon, with winds gusting to as high as 25 mph at times. High temperatures will range from the low 50s NW to the lower 60s across the SE. Low temperatures late tonight/early Sunday will generally range from the mid to upper 30s with lower 40s at the coast.

Previous discussion .

As of 345 AM EST Saturday .

Early this morning, a coastal trough/stationary front extends north from FL along the mid-Atlantic coast to Long Island. Surface low pressure continues to move along this boundary across coastal NC. High pressure is located well off the New England coast, but continues to extend SW down the spine of the Appalachians, allowing for a in-situ wedge setup to persist. Light to moderate rain is ongoing across the eastern half of the region, with this round of rain expected to continue to push off to the NE. Outside of the current rainfall fog, some of it locally dense, has formed. Expect a bit of a break in the precip (at least the steadier rainfall) after this current round exits the region. Fog will linger through the morning hours as NW flow has allowed for some mid-level drying above moist lower levels, especially across the Piedmont. Temperatures have held fairly steady and are expected to stay that way through the remainder of the night with readings ranging from the upper 30s/low 40s west to the low/mid 50s at the coast.

An upper level shortwave pivots back into the region later this morning (~12z) bringing another round of rainfall. This additional area of light to moderate rainfall likely continues into the early afternoon hours before coming to an end from SW to NE by 18z. Cannot rule out a passing shower or two after 18z as additional energy from the shortwave trough still has to cross the area, thus maintained slight chance to chance PoPs until 21z. Some partial clearing is expected for this afternoon (especially across the SW) with drying behind the departing area of low pressure.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. As of 345 AM EST Saturday .

A weak area of high pressure builds across the southeastern United States on Sunday allowing for dry conditions across the region. Sunday will feature mostly sunny skies and high temperatures in the 50s. Surface high pressure traverses the local area Sunday night, then moves well offshore on Monday. Meanwhile, a cold front will approach the region from the west during the day on Monday with chances for rain increasing from the NW during the late afternoon into the overnight hours. Monday will generally feature warmer temperatures, although increasing clouds and the potential for low stratus/fog Monday morning will prohibit max temps from reaching their full potential. Expect highs to range from the upper 40s to low 50s NW to the low to mid 60s across the SE. Low temperatures Monday night will range from the lower 40s N to the low/mid 50s across the SE.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. As of 400 PM EST Friday .

An upper trough will be located over the central US early next week. A sfc low pressure system is expected to develop across the southern Plains. The low will track northeast as the upper trough moves east. Models have come into closer agreement on the track of the center of the low pressure system. It now looks like the sfc low will track northeast west of the Appalachian Mountains, then track towards the coast north of DC. The will put our entire area in warm sector of the low pressure system. Therefore, high temperatures on Tuesday are expected to approach the upper 60s across southeast VA and northeast NC, near 60 across Delmarva, and upper 50s across central VA. A cold front will push through the region as the center of the sfc low crosses northern NJ/southern NY. Models disagree on the timing of the passage of the front across the area. GFS moves the front off shore well ahead of the ECMWF, likely due to the ECMWF having a more amplified upper level trough across the eastern US. The forecast leans towards the ECMWF with a front moving through Tuesday night with rain likely.

Cooler air and drying conditions will filter into the area after the passage of a cold front Tuesday night. Wednesday morning low temperatures will drop to the upper 20s west of I-95 and upper 30s along the coast. An upper level low pressure will track southeast out of Canada and across the Northeast US Wednesday. This will bring a reinforcing shot of colder air into the region. High temperatures Wednesday will range from the upper 30s across central VA and MD Eastern Shore to mid 40s across Hampton Roads and northeast NC. Low temperatures Thursday morning will be in the low 20s (upper 20s at the VA/NC beaches).

A cold high pressure system will settle across the region Thursday with high temperatures ranging from mid 30s to near 40.

AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. As of 640 AM EST Saturday .

Widespread IFR/LIFR CIGS continue at all terminals through the through at least mid morning, with varying categories for visibility. The next round of steadier rain is arriving quickly from the SW and will translate eastward to the eastern TAF sites through 18z. Degraded flight conditions will continue into the early afternoon before some drier air finally filters in from the west after 18Z. Outside of any the steady rain, fog has developed and will persist through the morning before improving late this morning/early afternoon. N to E winds less than 10 kt will become S or SW and will become gusty at the coastal terminals by late morning. A gradual return to VFR conditions is expected later this afternoon and evening.

OUTLOOK . VFR conditions expected Sunday into early next week. The next chance of rain and degraded flight conditions comes on Tuesday.

MARINE. As of 345 AM EST Saturday .

Broad low pressure is centered in vicinity of the Mid- Atlantic coast early this morning. The wind is NNW 5-10kt on the western side of the low, and S 10-15kt on the eastern side of the low out near 20nm. Seas remain elevated, and are primarily 5-6ft S and 6-7ft N. There is the potential for 4ft waves in the Mouth of the Bay, so the SCA was put into effect as of 1 am. Low pressure intensifies over New England today into tonight, with the trailing cold front sweeping across the coast later today. The wind will become SW 12-20kt later this morning into mid-aftn. Modest pressure rises occur behind the frontal passage late this aftn into this evening and should result in a W wind of 15-25kt, with the wind lingering into Sunday morning with a secondary pressure rise, before diminishing to 10-15kt in the aftn. Seas are expected to range from 5-7ft S to 6-8ft N today, and gradually subside to 4-6ft tonight as the wind becomes offshore, then further subside to 3-4ft by Sunday aftn. SCAs are in effect for the ocean and mouth of the Bay, and will go into effect early aftn for the remainder of the Bay, Sound, and lower James. The other rivers are marginal and will the wind forecast will remain sub-SCA at this time.

Weak high pressure builds over the area Sunday night and then slides offshore Monday into Monday night ahead of a cold front. This cold front is expected to cross the coast Tuesday, with modest CAA occurring by Tuesday night. A secondary front and another round of CAA are possible later Wednesday into Wednesday night. The wind is expected to become SW 15-20kt ahead of the cold front Monday night, and the become NNW 15-25kt by Tuesday night. The next round of SCAs are likely Monday night through early Wednesday.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . None. NC . None. VA . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Sunday for ANZ634. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Sunday for ANZ630>632. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Sunday for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for ANZ638. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Sunday for ANZ650-652-654. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for ANZ656-658.

SYNOPSIS . AJB NEAR TERM . AJB/MAM SHORT TERM . AJB/JDM LONG TERM . CP AVIATION . AJB MARINE . AJZ


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44089 13 mi73 min 50°F7 ft
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 29 mi61 min SW 8 G 11 51°F 47°F996.3 hPa
OCIM2 - 8570283 - Ocean City Inlet, MD 30 mi67 min SW 12 G 15 52°F 48°F997.1 hPa
OCSM2 31 mi193 min 5 ft
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 41 mi67 min SSW 4.1 G 4.1 46°F 45°F996.1 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 45 mi55 min S 6 G 6 997.4 hPa
44009 - DELAWARE BAY 26 NM Southeast of Cape May, NJ 49 mi83 min S 14 G 16 54°F 54°F7 ft994.2 hPa (-2.7)

Wind History for Ocean City Inlet, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wallops Flight Facility Airport, VA6 mi19 minSSW 100.25 miFog52°F52°F100%994.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KWAL

Wind History from WAL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE6NE7NE7NE9NE11NE9NE15NE11NE10N7N3CalmNE7SE5S12S7S4SE4SE4S6S9S9SW6S10
1 day agoNE12NE11NE11NE9NE9N5N5N6N6NE10E12E10E8E8E8E7E8E10NE6E5NE7NE7NE10NE7
2 days agoNW9
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Tide / Current Tables for Chincoteague Island, Blake Cove, Virginia
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Assateague Beach, Toms Cove, Chincoteague Bay, Virginia
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Assateague Beach
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:08 AM EST     -0.17 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:09 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:52 AM EST     4.23 feet High Tide
Sat -- 09:21 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 03:57 PM EST     -0.34 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:43 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 07:15 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 09:36 PM EST     3.38 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.50.70.1-0.20.112.23.444.243.32.31.30.5-0.1-0.300.922.93.33.33

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop



Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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