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FXUS65 KREV 230929 AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 229 AM PDT Sat Sep 23 2023

SYNOPSIS

Dry conditions with typical fall temperatures continue through the weekend. An upcoming storm is expected to bring gusty winds to the region and chances for rain across northeast California and the Sierra Nevada early next week.

DISCUSSION

This calm and sunny weather is expected to continue for at least today, before the pattern starts to get more active. Today is shaping up to be another sunny and quiet day, with just some increased westerly winds along ridgelines. It'll be a perfect day to get out and enjoy the Sun's warmth before it's gone for the year! Low temperatures Saturday and Sunday mornings will continue to be quite chilly, especially for Sierra communities. Be aware that depending on your elevation, the temperature may drop below freezing overnight, so make sure to protect any sensitive plants. Otherwise, daily high temperatures look to stay near average through next week.

Sunday is when things start to switch and get interesting, so let's dive into it. Aloft, we'll have a shortwave trough passing by, just barely grazing the NW corner of Nevada. Expect an increase in cloud cover and winds Sunday afternoon. Winds will be breezy out of the southwest gusting to 25 mph, so don't worry about your garden gnomes or yard flamingos blowing away. However, Sunday and Monday we'll have elevated fire weather conditions from the increased winds and low RHs.

Ensembles and blended guidance haven't picked up on any precip chances, but there are a few CAMs that have a few light showers developing Sunday morning lasting into the afternoon across the Sierra and western Nevada north of I-80. Since current models don't have a good handle on this shortwave yet, and based on what we see from soundings in western NV, at this time there's only a 5-10% chance of a light rain shower. With the lack of vertical motion and instability Sunday afternoon, I think it's fair to side with the ensembles and blended guidance as of right now.

A much larger and deeper trough will swing by across the Pacific northwest on Monday, which will bring a greater chance of precip and slightly stronger winds. The start of the rain and wind will be roughly around the same time Monday afternoon and will subside overnight into Tuesday. Winds will blow out of the southwest around 60-65 mph along Sierra ridges and upwards of 35 mph for far western Nevada. Current long-range models and ensembles keep most of the precip north of I-80 with just very limited spillover into western Nevada. There's currently a 30-50% chance for precip from the Tahoe Basin northward and a 15-20% chance across the Sierra Front. QPF amounts have a 90% chance of staying under 0.20" for any given point, so overall the winds will be the main concern on Monday.

Looking ahead from Tuesday through Thursday, it will stay quiet with lighter winds, sunny skies, and near normal temps. However, the warm temps and clear skies won't last for long, as Friday through the weekend appears to become active again with another blast of cool air.

-Justin

AVIATION

VFR conditions continue today with westerly winds gusting up to 20 kts. Expect another brief round of FZFG near KTRK Saturday morning lasting just after dawn.

More unsettled weather is expected late Sunday into early next week with enhanced breezes, periods of LLWS and mountain wave turbulence over the Sierra. Increased chances (30-50%) for rain showers along the Sierra from northeast CA down to KTVL and a 15-20% chance over the Sierra Front.

-Justin

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories
NV...None.
CA...None.

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