Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Stockton, CA

KEY MESSAGES

* Today:

-Breezy onshore flow and low humidity values will lead to periods of elevated fire weather conditions today, mainly across the northern Sacramento Valley and northern San Joaquin Valley.

-Seasonably cool high temperatures expected, with current temperatures reading in the mid to upper 70s across the Valley floor.

-Please continue to practice fire safety such as, properly extinguishing any campfires, not driving over dry grass, checking your vehicle for chains or hanging objects that may cause sparks.

* Saturday and Sunday:

-Predominately dry weather system in the PacNW moves onshore in WA and OR. This system will be responsible for a wind pattern change from onshore, to north winds. Minimum daytime humidity values will fall in response to wind change across the Valley, with 15-25% RH values expected.

-The Fire Weather Watch has been upgraded to a Red Flag Warning, which will begin 11 AM Saturday morning and continue through 9 AM Sunday morning. Highest area of concern: along and west of the I-5 corridor in the northern and central Sacramento Valley, and the northern San Joaquin Valley. North winds of 10-20 mph, with gusts 30-40 mph; strongest gusts Saturday afternoon/evening. Daytime RH values around 15-25%.

-Winds weaken and return to onshore/diurnal pattern late Sunday night into Monday morning.

-Probability of wind gusts > 30 mph: *70-100% Saturday across the Northern/Central Sacramento Valley and northern San Joaquin Valley.
*50-70% Sunday across the Sacramento Valley and Delta.

* Next Week:

-A shortwave trough is projected to eject from the parent low on Monday, and likely move through the mountains throughout the day. There is a non-zero chance of an isolated afternoon shower in the Sierra and southern Cascades, however no impacts are expected. While t-storm chances remain low ( less than 10%), there could be enough forcing from the shortwave and help from topographic influences to get an isolated t-storm fired up Monday afternoon/evening. Best chances currently reside south of HWY-50 in the Sierra.

-Dry conditions with a warming trend as we move into the middle of next week. Broad zonal flow will allow onshore winds to continue in the Delta and adjacent areas. Stagnate flow elsewhere will allow temperatures to begin to climb into the upper 90s by Tuesday in the northern Sacramento Valley. Minor HeatRisk is expected at this time, thanks to Delta Breeze helping improve overnight relief with low temps in the mid 50s to mid 60s in the Valley/Delta.

-Clusters Analysis relatively confident in broad zonal flow continuing into next weekend.

Changes from previous forecast
-Fire Weather Watch has been upgraded to a Red Flag Warning. Fire Zones 220 and 266 were removed from the Watch/Warning, however elevated fire weather conditions will persist through Sunday in those zones.

AVIATION

VFR conditions continue at TAF sites over the next 24 hours.
Gusty west to southwest wind gusts around 15-30 kts across interior NorCal until around 00z Friday - 06z Saturday. Gusty north to northwest 10-20 kts with gusts 20-35 kts develop after 03z-06z Saturday. Strongest winds are expected through the Delta and vicinity and over the mountains today, then across the Valley and Coastal Range on Saturday.

STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM Saturday to 9 AM PDT Sunday for Carquinez Strait and Delta-Central Sacramento Valley in Glenn, Colusa, Yuba, Northern Sutter, and Butte County Below 1000 Ft- Eastern Mendocino NF-Northern Sacramento Valley to Southern Tehama County Line Below 1000 Ft-Northern San Joaquin Valley in San Joaquin and Stanislaus Counties Below 1000 ft-Southeast Edge Shasta-Trinity NF and Western Portions of Tehama-Glenn Unit- Southern Sacramento Valley in Yolo-Sacramento Far Western Placer, southern Sutter and Solano County Below 1000 Ft.