Lake Caroline, VA Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lake Caroline, VA

April 14, 2024 10:32 PM EDT (02:32 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:33 AM   Sunset 7:46 PM
Moonrise 9:50 AM   Moonset 12:47 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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Marine Forecasts
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ANZ536 Tidal Potomac From Indian Head To Cobb Island- 1013 Pm Edt Sun Apr 14 2024

.small craft advisory in effect until 1 am edt Monday - .

Rest of tonight - SW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.

Mon - W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.

Mon night - N winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.

Tue - E winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.

Tue night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.

Wed - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.

Wed night - S winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain likely.

Thu - W winds 5 to 10 kt - .becoming n. Waves 1 ft. A chance of rain.

Fri - E winds 5 to 10 kt - .becoming se in the evening, then becoming W after midnight. Waves 1 ft. A chance of rain.
winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.

ANZ500 1013 Pm Edt Sun Apr 14 2024

Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay -
an area of low pressure and its associated cold front will drop through the mid-atlantic tonight into Monday. This front will likely stall just to the south Tuesday before returning northward as a warm front by mid-week. A weak cold front pushing across the waters on Thursday. Small craft advisories will likely need to be extended into Monday. Additional advisories may be necessary by mid-week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lake Caroline, VA
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Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 150215 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1015 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure slides off the southeast coast today, bringing dry and very warm conditions to the local area, along with gusty winds. A backdoor cold front drops through later Monday with showers and thunderstorms possible for most of the area. This front is forecast to lift back north as a warm front Tuesday into Tuesday night. A stronger cold front crosses the area late in the week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
As of 1015 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Clear and remaining breezy overnight.

- Milder with lows in the 50s and 60s.

Latest analysis reveals a wavy cold front extending SW to NE from NE Missouri into Northern OH and central PA/NJ, with several weak lows driving the front SSE. That front gradually makes it's way southward overnight, with a mainly clear/mostly clear sky locally. Overnight/early morning low temps staying mild in the upper 50s/lower 60s due to steady SW winds of 10-20 mph, though winds do slowly diminish overnight.

SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
As of 1015 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Warmer and dry through early afternoon.

- Scattered thunderstorms expected Monday afternoon, with a few strong to severe storms possible. Large hail/gusty winds the main threats.

Attention turns to the severe weather threat for Monday. The cold front just north of the area will move across the area during the afternoon and early evening hours on Monday.
Accompanying this front will be steep mid level lapse rates of 8.0C/km due to an EML originating from the northern plains, with 0- 6km bulk shear values of 35 kt on the southern edge of the strong mid level jet north of the region. The EML feature will keep the atmosphere capped through early afternoon allowing modest MLCAPE values of 500-1000 j/kg as temps rise into the mid 80s. CAMS are in better agreement in showing a line of storms developing along the front by mid afternoon as the cap breaks in central Virginia, then growing upscale into the late afternoon before diminishing by dusk due to loss of daytime heating.
Kinematics and thermodynamics certainly suggest severe is possible which is likely why the machine learning probs from CSU and NCAR suggest a slight risk of severe weather. However, the low level flow of W-SW (which extends through the lower troposphere) would suggest limited moisture which will keep coverage to a minimum. With all of this said, there seems to be a conditional risk for severe weather tomorrow meaning that if storms develop, there is a good chance that some of those will become severe. Large hail would likely be the main concern at the onset before becoming more of a wind threat if the clusters become better organized. SPC has placed much of the area in a SLGT risk (level 2 out of 5) on Monday.

Showers and storms may linger across the far south into early Monday evening but should quickly end with loss of daytime heating and due to the front moving south of the area. The front will return northward as a warm front Tuesday into Tuesday night as an other low pressure develops over the plains states. Will go with slight chance PoPs in the afternoon across the southwestern part of the area, spreading across the entire region on Tue night.

Warm day on Monday with areas north of I-64 in the lower 80s and areas south of I-64 in the mid 80s. A little cooler on Tuesday but still above normal in the 70s and lower 80s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 215 PM EDT Sunday...

Low pressure continues to lift ENE through the upper Midwest Wednesday into Thursday. A cold front will also extend S/SW into the southern states. There will tend to be more clouds Wednesday, though precip chances will be low w/ little forcing (some CHC to slight CHC PoPs will remain over the far N closer to the boundary). Highs in the mid 70s NE, upper 70s for most of VA, and lower 80s far SE VA and NE NC. Thursday looks to be the warmest day of the extended period with highs in the 80s for most of the area (70s across the NE), despite a weak cold front moving through during the day. Will keep chance PoPs through the day simply due to the cold frontal passage occuring during the day. Another (stronger) cold front moves toward the area later Friday and into the weekend into Saturday with a chance for showers and possibly thunderstorm. Some model disagreement with the timing of the front will the GFS showing a Saturday FROPA, while the ECMWF shows a Sunday frontal passage. PoPs remain on the low side as most guidance continues to show the front losing most of its moisture E of the Appalachians. Temps Friday continue to trend cooler but seasonable with 70s for most of the area and perhaps in the 60s on the ern shore. NBM guidance suggests warmer temps on Saturday with the possible delayed frontal passage.
Large spread in the guidance however with temps in the upper 60s/lower 70s N and upper 70s south. Sunday will be the coolest day in the forecast period with temps topping out in the mid to upper 60s.

AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 810 PM EDT Sunday...

VFR conditions expected through the 00z/15 forecast period.
Gusty south to southwest will slowly diminish this evening into early Monday, but remain gusty through around midnight. Due to strong winds aloft and weakening winds near the surface, there will be some wind shear to contend with at the terminals overnight. Quiet on Monday morning but a weakening cold front moves into the area by afternoon. This should trigger some isolated to scattered storms by afternoon with strong wind gusts starting in RIC by mid afternoon then extending SE to PHF ORF and ECG by late afternoon or early evening.

Outlook...There is a lower chance of showers/storms Tue aftn/Tue night. Scattered to Isolated showers persist into Wed, though not expecting flight restrictions.

MARINE
As of 225 PM EDT Sunday...

Gusty SW winds continue over the waters tonight as the pressure gradient remains tight across the area with with the high off the SE CONUS and an area of low pressure and associated cold front sliding across PA. SCA headlines remain in effect for the bay lower James River with the coastal waters north of Cape Charles Light. With the winds in place, seeing waves of 2 - 3ft on the Bay and have built to 4 - 6 Ft in the northern coastal zones. The winds will slowly diminish overnight with seas also diminishing. All headlines are expected to come down overnight.

A weakening cold front drops south tomorrow with the potential for some stronger storms along and ahead of the boundary. The main threats with any storms will be locally stronger winds and associated enhanced waves/seas. Winds turn to the NE behind the front and then to the E-SE on Tuesday (staying sub-SCA through this timeframe). Conditions will generally remain sub-SCA for the rest of the week with some potential for seas to build to ~5 ft in the northern coastal waters by Thursday or Friday.

FIRE WEATHER
As of 810 PM EDT Sunday...

Fire Weather SPS has expired and IFD conditions continue to diminish as RH slowly recover.

Higher RH values and weaker wind on Monday. Still, RH values could drop to 30 percent across NE NC Monday afternoon. Virginia and MD RH values will be in the 30-40 percent range along with chances for storms in the afternoon.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Monday for ANZ630-631-638.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Monday for ANZ632-634-650- 652-654.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesinHgDewPt
NCDV2 34 mi45 min SW 11G16 76°F 61°F29.75


Wind History for Piney Point, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KOFP HANOVER COUNTY MUNI,VA 17 sm38 minSW 12G1810 smClear75°F46°F36%29.83
KEZF SHANNON,VA 21 sm17 minSSW 11G1610 smClear75°F45°F34%29.77
Link to 5 minute data for KOFP


Wind History from OFP
(wind in knots)
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Tide / Current for Massaponax, Rappahannock River, Virginia
   
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Massaponax
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Sun -- 12:10 AM EDT     2.58 feet High Tide
Sun -- 01:48 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 06:34 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:08 AM EDT     0.38 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 10:48 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 12:18 PM EDT     2.86 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:45 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:09 PM EDT     0.33 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Massaponax, Rappahannock River, Virginia, Tide feet
12
am
2.6
1
am
2.5
2
am
2.1
3
am
1.7
4
am
1.2
5
am
0.8
6
am
0.5
7
am
0.4
8
am
0.5
9
am
1.1
10
am
2
11
am
2.6
12
pm
2.8
1
pm
2.8
2
pm
2.5
3
pm
2.1
4
pm
1.6
5
pm
1.2
6
pm
0.8
7
pm
0.5
8
pm
0.3
9
pm
0.5
10
pm
1.1
11
pm
1.8



Tide / Current for Corbins Neck, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Corbins Neck
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Sun -- 01:47 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 06:23 AM EDT     0.40 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:34 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:48 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 11:57 AM EDT     3.05 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:24 PM EDT     0.35 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:44 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Corbins Neck, Rappahannock River, Virginia, Tide feet
12
am
2.7
1
am
2.5
2
am
2
3
am
1.5
4
am
1
5
am
0.6
6
am
0.4
7
am
0.5
8
am
0.9
9
am
1.7
10
am
2.5
11
am
2.9
12
pm
3.1
1
pm
2.9
2
pm
2.5
3
pm
1.9
4
pm
1.4
5
pm
1
6
pm
0.6
7
pm
0.4
8
pm
0.4
9
pm
0.9
10
pm
1.6
11
pm
2.2




Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of east us   
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Wakefield, VA,



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