Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lake Caroline, VA

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
As of 325 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible across northern portions of the area this afternoon into this evening.

Early this morning, ~1004 mb low pressure is centered off the northern Outer Banks. Another area of ~1003 mb low pressure is centered over Lake Erie. High pressure remains over Atlantic Canada, with a surface ridge axis extending SW into the Mid-Atlantic, resulting in a cold air damming pattern over the local area this morning. Isolated to scattered shower/storms from earlier have moved offshore. Drizzle and patchy fog will be possible through sunrise.
Conditions gradually begin to improve from south to north around sunrise and especially after sunrise.

Low pressure offshore will continue to track further northeast up the coast, pulling a frontal boundary north of the area this morning. The parent low pressure system will remain situated over the Great Lakes, but an associated cold front will slide through locally this afternoon into this evening. This will bring a brief chance of scattered showers a few thunderstorms. Best chances look to be north of I-64 during the afternoon and into the evening hours, including the Maryland Eastern Shore. While we are not in a severe weather risk from SPC, cannot completely rule out a stronger storm or two later this afternoon, especially over the Maryland Eastern Shore. Decent lapse rates, combined with MLCAPE of ~500 to 750 J/kg and modest shear (30 to 40 knots) on the backside of the departing/deepening low pressure system will allow for at least the potential for a few stronger wind gusts and potentially some hail.
If we are able to get more sunshine and warming, the threat will increase. Elsewhere, dewpoints will fall into the lower 50s through the day under partly to mostly sunny skies. Some afternoon westerly breezes are expected as well. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 70s across the south, with low to mid 70s north.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
As of 325 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Dry and cooler weather is expected through the first half of the Memorial Day Weekend.

The coastal low will continue to move up the coast Thursday night and will be off the New England coast on Friday. High pressure builds back into the local area Friday into Saturday, resulting in cool and dry conditions. We should see a decent amount of sunshine Friday, and especially Saturday with the high building closer to the area. Daytime highs on Friday will generally be in the lower 70s for much of the area, with some upper 60s possible across far northern portions of the area and mid 70s across the southeast. Cool Friday night, with lows dropping back into the 40s for most inland locations (50s at the coast). Temperatures on Saturday will be a degree or two warmer compared to Friday for most locations, with highs in the low to mid 70s for much of the forecast area. Similar low temperatures on Saturday night compared to Friday night.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 325 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Becoming unsettled later Sunday into next week as multiple systems approach the region.

On Sunday, global models continue to show another system approaching the region that could bring some rainfall to our area. Overnight model runs have continued to be a bit slower with the arrival of this system and have suppressed it somewhat to the south. With this in mind, we should hopefully be able to salvage most of Sunday, with increasing cloud cover, but generally dry weather through the daytime hours. High temperatures Sunday will range from the low to mid 70s, but this will also be highly dependent on how the system evolves. The weather pattern looks to become unsettled once again, with one system impacting the region Sunday night into Monday and another potentially Tuesday into Tuesday night (the Tuesday-Tuesday night system will likely be the stronger of the two). The rain chances will then linger into the midweek period.
Temperatures will continue to run below average for late May Sunday into next week, with highs mainly in the 70s each day (some 80s far SE) and overnight lows in the 50s and 60s.

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 650 AM EDT Thursday...

A stratus deck lingers over the terminals this morning, with MVFR to IFR CIGs at all sites. CIGs improve fairly quickly over the next hour or two with low- level flow becoming WNW and drier air filtering into the region. This should result in stratus lifting and scattering from S-N by ~13-14z at the latest for most sites, but lingering longer at SBY. A secondary cold front will bring scattered showers/tstms to SBY this afternoon, with a 20% chance or less elsewhere. A W to WNW wind of 10-15kt is expected with gusts to 20-25kt.

Outlook: Dry and VFR conditions prevail Friday into Saturday. A chance of showers and degraded flight conditions return later Sunday into Monday.

MARINE
As of 320 AM EDT Thursday...

- Small Craft Advisories remain today for most waters due to elevated seas and gusty westerly winds.

- Possible Small Craft Conditions in the bay/rivers on Friday before a quieter weekend.

Low pressure is pushing offshore early this morning, which is evident in the latest wind obs showing a shift to the N (at 10- 15kt). Buoy obs show seas at 6-8ft, and waves are 2-3ft. SCAs are in effect for all bay and coastal zones. Winds shift to the west this morning as the low moves further offshore and a cold front moves through the region from the W. Winds will pick back up to 15-20kt during the first half of the morning. SCAs for the rivers and Currituck Sound will then go into effect. As the cold front crosses local waters this afternoon, scattered showers/storms are expected, primarily across northern waters. Did extend the SCA for the lower bay into the early overnight hours since it looks like gusts over 20kt will linger there. The offshore winds will help seas diminish through the day, but expecting 5ft seas to linger into the evening, at least for northern waters. Did go ahead and extend the SCAs for these zones a few more hours given guidance suggesting the 5ft seas will linger into tonight.
Waves will be 2-3ft today and overnight.

High pressure builds in from the NW Friday and into the weekend, but the pressure gradient between the high and low pressure near New England will keep westerly winds at ~15kt through Saturday.
There is the potential for another round of (marginal) SCA conditions in the lower bay Friday night. Seas will gradually diminish toward 3ft Friday- Saturday while waves in the bay/rivers stay at 2-3ft. High pressure finally slides in overhead on Sun, leading to lighter NW winds.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
As of 320 AM EDT Thursday...

Tidal anomalies remain at 1-2' above normal tide early this morning in the Chesapeake Bay. Anomalies will likely drop off as the winds turn to the W over the next few hours, but elevated tides are still expected at many of the gages both in the lower and upper bay. The morning high tide looks to reach upper action stage or low end minor flood stage at sites such as Sewells, Windmill Point, Lewisetta, and Bishops Head (and adjacent gages). Therefore, have raised Coastal Flood Statements for areas adjacent to the lower James and the Rappahannock/Potomac, as well as the bay side of the MD Eastern Shore.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until noon EDT today for MDZ021>023.
NC...None.
VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for VAZ075>078-085-086-521-522.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ630- 631.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ632- 634.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ633- 635>638.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ650- 652-654-656.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for ANZ658.