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Marine Weather and Tides Lake Caroline, VA Version 3.4

NOTICE 7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports. 6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

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Sunrise 6:27AM

Sunset 7:59PM

Monday August 19, 2019 12:20 PM EDT (16:20 UTC)

Moonrise 9:22PM

Moonset 9:04AM

Illumination 83%

NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lake Caroline, VA

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Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA

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Fxus61 kakq 191446 afdakq area forecast discussion national weather service wakefield va 1046 am edt Mon aug 19 2019 Synopsis Weak high pressure will be over the region today, then settles off the coast Tuesday. A weak trough passes through the area late Tuesday into Wednesday morning. A cold front approaches from the northwest Thursday. Near term until 6 pm this evening As of 1045 am edt Monday... no major changes to the current forecast. Scattered to isolated thunderstorms will develop this afternoon as a weak upper disturance and surface trough moves north of the area. Best chances for thunderstorms will be mainly north and west of ric, although the entire region could see a pop up storm develop. As such, have raised pops to 30% across the northern tier (n of ric) as this area is closer to the upper forcing. Otherwise, another seasonably hot humid day with temps in the low-mid 90s with heat index readings close to 100. As of 410 am edt Monday... early this morning, weak high pressure was building into the area, providing dry wx under a clear to mostly clear sky. Temps ranged thru the 70s. Today will largely be dominated by mid and upper level ridging and weak high pressure centered off the SE coast. Hot and humid conditions develop as 850mb temps rise to ~20c today, and this should support high temps in the lower to mid 90s (upper 80s at the coast). Dewpoints potentially remain 70-75f during peak heating resulting in heat indices of 100-104f. Pops are around 20% at most this aftn early this evening, and primarily confined to the piedmont and SE va NE nc. Short term 6 pm this evening through Wednesday As of 410 am edt Monday... not much change for tonight and tue, as mid and upper level ridging and weak high pressure will remain centered off the se coast. Hot and humid conditions again on tue, but not as hot by a degree or two, as a subtle mid-level trough approaches from the wnw later Tue aftn into Tue night. Pops increase to 20-40% W Tue aftn, and 20% or less e, followed by 30-40% pops n tue evening early Tue night, and 20-30% s. 19 00z nam GFS each show the airmass destabilizing Tue aftn with strong surface heating and rich low-level moisture, although the NAM is quite more robust with the amount of instability. There is a low probability of some stronger tstms (mainly n). This is conditional on tstms developing upstream and feeding off the downstream buoyancy. Otherwise, continued warm and humid tue night with lows in the lower to mid 70s. Hot and humid conditions continue wed, as there is little change in the airmass behind the trough. 850mb temps are still ~19c, so highs should at least be in the lower 90s (upper 80s at the coast). Dewpoints remain in the lower 70s resulting in heat indices in the upper 90s to lower 100s. Long term Wednesday night through Sunday As of 335 pm Sunday... a potent area of low pressure (sfc-aloft) tracks across quebec thu- Thu night while the trailing cold front slowly approaches the region from the nw. As the cold front approaches the region by late thu, expect organized convection to develop across

northern western zones Thu aftn and move to the E SE during the evening-overnight. Tstms are forecast to peak in intensity coverage during the late aftn- evening, but will likely persist through early Fri am. Convection likely impacts at least the NRN two-thirds of the CWA from Thu aftn- Thu night. As a result, raised pops to 60% across va md, while keeping pops of 30-50% across NE nc. Model consensus has the front stalling across SRN va by 12z fri, although the 12z 18 GFS is forecasting the front to clear the area by this time. The cold front potentially stalls (or very slowly moves southward) from fri-next weekend. This happens as ridging over the WRN atlantic tries to gradually build back westward. If the front stalls or slowly moves across SRN portions of the CWA from Fri through the weekend, this would lead to continued chances of scattered aftn-evening convection across SRN va NE nc. Northern portions of the CWA likely remain dry next weekend (or see only isolated, diurnally-driven showers tstms) as sfc high pressure over the great lakes northeast tries to build toward the region. Highs mainly in the low 90s on thu, cooling into the mid 80s for most areas by Fri (mid 80s last through the weekend). Forecast lows are mainly in the low-mid 70s on thu, with mid- upper 60s inland around 70f near the coast from Fri through mon. Aviation 15z Monday through Friday As of 300 am edt Monday... early this morning, weak high pressure was building into the area, providingVFR dry conditions at the TAF sites with light ssw winds. MainlyVFR conditions will prevail at the TAF sites today into Tue morning. Some CU is expected this aftn, with a low probability (20% or less) of an aftn evening shower or tstm. Outlook: a trough will track across the area late Tue aftn into wed morning, bringing a 20-40% chc of showers tstms. The chc for showers tstms lessens wed, and then increases Thu as a cold front approaches from the nw. The potential for showers tstms could linger into fri, if the cold front slows down or stalls over the region. Marine As of 400 am edt Monday... no headlines thru mid week as high pressure settles over the area. S-sw winds remain below 15 kt. Waves 1-2 ft, seas 2-3 ft. A cold front apprchs by late week. The pressure gradient tightens ahead of this feature Wed nite thurs but remain below SCA levels. Seas build to 3-4 ft. Winds shift to the n-ne behind the fropa fri. Akq watches warnings advisories Md... None. Nc... None. Va... None. Marine... None. Synopsis... Tmg mrd near term... Tmg short term... Ajz tmg long term... Eri aviation... Tmg marine... Mpr rhr

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
NCDV2	34 mi	57 min	WNW 1.9 G 5.1	89°F	87°F		1015.6 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD	52 mi	51 min	SE 5.1 G 7
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA	54 mi	57 min	SSW 4.1 G 5.1	89°F	86°F		1016.1 hPa
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA	56 mi	51 min	E 1.9	90°F			1018 hPa	80°F

Wind History for Piney Point, MD

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Ashland, Hanover County Municipal Airport, VA	18 mi	27 min	WSW 8	10.00 mi	Fair	93°F	71°F	49%	1016.9 hPa
Fredericksburg, Shannon Airport, VA	21 mi	46 min	WSW 5	10.00 mi	Fair	91°F	74°F	59%	1016.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KOFP

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Tide / Current Tables for Massaponax, Rappahannock River, Virginia

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Tide / Current Tables for Corbins Neck, Rappahannock River, Virginia

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Weather Map and Satellite Images

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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (12,3,4,5)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA

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Disclaimer: The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.