Sunrise 6:19 AM   Sunset 7:56 PM Moonrise 9:02 PM   Moonset 5:58 AM

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ANZ536 Tidal Potomac From Indian Head To Cobb Island- 153 Am Edt Thu Apr 25 2024
.small craft advisory in effect until 9 am edt this morning - .
Overnight - N winds 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. Scattered sprinkles. Thu - NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Thu night - E winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Fri - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Fri night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Sat - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Sat night - S winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. Sun - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Mon - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.

ANZ500 153 Am Edt Thu Apr 25 2024
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay -
high pressure will build across the region for the end of the week, then move offshore over the weekend. Small craft advisories will likely be needed both Friday and Saturday afternoons.

FXUS61 KAKQ 250556 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 156 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

SYNOPSIS
A weak cold front drops through the area this evening keeping a chance for scattered rain showers in the forecast. Strong high pressure then builds east from the Great Lakes region on Thursday before shifting offshore to end the week. After a couple of cooler days, expect a significant warming trend next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
As of 920 PM EDT Wednesday...

Surface analysis shows that the weak cold front is situated from about FVX-SBY, with a subtle shortwave aloft tracking over West Virginia tracking toward the area from the WNW. Scattered showers and isolated tstms have formed just to the SE of the boundary (mesoanalysis shows steep 0.5-2 km lapse rates despite the developing inversion near the sfc w/ the loss of daytime heating...resulting in 200-500 J/kg of MUCAPE). No severe wx is expected, but small hail and gusts to 35 mph cannot be ruled out. The highest tstm chances through 06z/2 AM are in areas just to the west of the Ches Bay, with just isolated-scattered showers possible elsewhere. Precip chances gradually diminish as the cold front crosses the area later tonight. Overnight lows fall into the mid-upper 40s inland, with lower 50s near the coast and across most of NE NC.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
As of 230 PM EDT Wednesday...

Surface high pressure builds in from the Great Lakes region on Thursday and extends across New England and the Mid-Atlantic. Partly cloudy skies are expected with cooler high temperatures thanks to onshore flow. Forecast has upper 50s to lower 60s across the east and northeast, with mid to upper 60s across the southwest. Lows Thursday night will be in the lower 40s, with northern areas dropping to around 40 degrees. Inland spots of the Maryland Eastern Shore may see upper 30s by Friday morning. This could result in some patchy frost across these locations. The high slides just offshore of New England on Friday keeping onshore flow ongoing. Another cool day will be on tap with highs very similar to Thursday. It will be a little bit milder Friday night as the airmass modifies along that persistent onshore flow, with lows staying in the mid 40s inland.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 230 PM EDT Wednesday...

A high amplitude ridge axis will be overhead on Saturday, with surface high pressure settling in just off the New England coast. A low pressure center will weaken as it drifts northward across Minnesota, sending a warm front across the Ohio River Valley and into the northern Mid-Atlantic Saturday morning. It may extend just far enough south to give us a very slight chance of light rain showers, particularly across the north and northwest section of the CWA Elsewhere, expect mostly cloudy skies and slightly warmer temperatures, topping out around 70 degrees inland.

The upper ridge remains in place on Sunday. Skies will become partly cloudy as temperatures warm rapidly. Expecting highs to reach 80 degrees to start off the new week. The ridge begins to break down a bit later Monday as the axis shifts offshore. Temperatures will warm even more as southwesterly flow enhances over the area. High temps Monday are forecast to hit the mid 80s for most locations. A cold front may push through later Tuesday giving us our next chance of rain, however, models disagree on its strength and precise timing.
For now, kept temperatures in the mid to upper 80s as a late day frontal passage will allow for peak heating to occur. Kept a slight chance of rain/storms for the area in the afternoon. Expect low temperatures to remain in the upper 50s to lower 60s during this period.

AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 155 AM EDT Thursday...

A cold front has finally dropped across local terminals this morning, with pesky isolated scattered showers lingering INVOF the KORF terminal to begin the 06z TAF period diminishing in the next few hours. Noting some patchy fog at RIC/ECG early this morning, but expect VFR to return by sunrise, though some more widespread fog could persist SW of the terminals through 11-12z before eroding. Winds become NE this morning, and gust to 15-20 kt along the coast. Some MVFR marine stratus is expected along the coast as early as sunrise this morning, but likely for much of today with onshore flow. VFR CIGs expected to prevail inland at RIC.

Outlook: Dry/VFR conditions will prevail from Thu night through the weekend. Can't rule out a stray shower Saturday as a warm front lifts across the region.

MARINE
As of 245 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- SCAs for the coastal waters have been extended through Thursday evening. Further extension into Friday is likely due to lingering 5ft+ seas

- Another round of SCAs in effect for the Chesapeake Bay starting early Thursday morning.

A cold front is located NW of local waters this afternoon with high pressure suppressed to the south. Ahead of the front, a line of showers is crossing over the southernmost waters, leading to occasional gustiness (~20kt). Latest obs show WSW winds at 10-15kt.
Waves are 1-2ft and seas are 4-5ft. Behind the front, winds will turn to the NE and a relatively brief surge of winds is expected.
Winds increase after 06z. Winds over the bay will reach 15-20kt early Thursday morning, then diminish to 10-15kt by the afternoon.
Waves will reach 2-4ft (5ft in mouth of bay). Expecting longer duration and a bit stronger winds (20-25kt) over the coastal waters.
Winds will diminish over coastal waters late Thursday evening, but will remain onshore through the weekend. Therefore, seas of 5-6ft will linger, potentially into Friday afternoon.

Sub-SCA conditions are expected Sat-Tues. Onshore wind direction will persist through Saturday with high pressure situated just to the N of local waters. High pressure gets pushed to the S through mid-week, allowing winds to turn to the S on Sunday.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
As of 855 PM EDT Wednesday...

A prolonged period of NE flow is expected to begin tonight behind a cold front passage, lingering into Friday. While widespread coastal flooding is not expected, localized coastal flooding is possible along portions of the James river with nuisance to minor flooding possible during the Thursday night high tide at Smithfield, VA.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ630- 631.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 1 AM EDT Friday for ANZ632-634.
Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EDT Friday for ANZ633.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ635.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ638.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for ANZ650-652-654.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 10 AM EDT Friday for ANZ656-658.

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Massaponax
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:54 AM EDT     0.44 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:21 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:28 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 08:07 AM EDT     2.94 feet High Tide
Wed -- 03:51 PM EDT     0.35 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:54 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:43 PM EDT     2.49 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:56 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Massaponax, Rappahannock River, Virginia, Tide feet

Corbins Neck
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:09 AM EDT     0.47 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:20 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:28 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 07:46 AM EDT     3.13 feet High Tide
Wed -- 03:06 PM EDT     0.37 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:54 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:22 PM EDT     2.65 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:56 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Corbins Neck, Rappahannock River, Virginia, Tide feet

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Wakefield, VA,