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Marine Weather and Tides Lake Caroline, VA Version 3.4

NOTICE 1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17. 1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

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Sunrise 6:39AM

Sunset 7:42PM

Saturday April 10, 2021 11:12 PM EDT (03:12 UTC)

Moonrise 5:22AM

Moonset 5:27PM

Illumination 1%

NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lake Caroline, VA

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Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA

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FXUS61 KAKQ 110202 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1002 PM EDT Sat Apr 10 2021

SYNOPSIS. Unsettled weather continues tonight as a warm front lifts north of the area this evening. A cold front approaching from the west will cross the area late Sunday. High pressure builds over the deep south on Monday, bringing dry conditions to the local area.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/. As of 1000 PM EDT Saturday .

The latest analysis indicates that the boundary is lifting N through much of the CWA as a rather weak/diffuse warm front, with a band of showers moving across the Piedmont and central VA. Mild for much of the area this evening with temperatures ranging through the 60s, but cooler with mid/upper 50s for the Atlantic coast of the Eastern Shore.

Strong sfc low pressure (~993mb) is located across the mid-MS Valley out ahead of a cutoff upper low centered over east central Missouri. These features will slowly drift to the NE overnight and will allow the front over the local area to continue lifting N. PoPs gradually ramp up across the W through the early overnight hours.

The bulk of the precip will occur late this evening/early AM Sunday in the W and after midnight through early Sunday AM elsewhere as a shortwave over the deep south pivots up towards the spine of the Appalachians. The best forcing looks to stay north and west of our area, however the LL jet does increase over the local area overnight, which should help to enhance rainfall. SPC has removed the marginal risk for the overnight hours. Low temps tonight will be mild only dropping down to the lower 60s.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/. As of 355 PM EDT Saturday .

The upper low is forecast to be centered across northern IN Sun morning, shifting to the E into NW Ohio through the aftn. This setup will push a dry slot into the local area fairly rapidly Sun morning so bulk of showers and any leftover convection should be pushing offshore by 12Z. The cold front to our west will be moving E of the Appalachians by early aftn but will become more of a dew pt/moisture gradient rather than an actual temperature boundary due to an increasing westerly flow and downslope warming. Thus, have gone on the warm side of guidance with highs into the upper 70s to lower 80s. Expect little in the way of any precip from mid morning through early- mid aftn, then some additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop along the front as it moves through the area during the afternoon and early evening hours. SPC has a a Marginal Day 2 Risk (primarily for isolated damaging wind gusts) for most of the CWA as ML Cape Values will rise to ~1000 J/KG (highest SE) along with deep layer shear values of 30-45kt. The coverage will be in question though given the drying westerly flow so PoPs have been capped at 25-35% for now. Any remaining storms move offshore by midnight. It will be cooler Sunday night but still above normal with low temps in the lower 50s out west to mid and upper 50s over the eastern half of the area.

Dry on Monday with fairly zonal flow aloft. It will be mostly sunny (partly sunny eastern shore) and noticeably less humid with dew points falling into the 40s. Temps will remain mild with a downsloping W/NW flow. High temps in the upper 70s, except cooler near the coast. Low temps Monday night range from the upper 40s to lower 50s. The next upper trough from the NW approaches on Tue but a model consensus keeps conditions mainly dry over the local area (some of the guidances suggests a low chance for PoPs over the N). Will keep it dry/partly cloudy for now. Highs Tue range from the lower-mid 70s S to the low-mid 60s eastern shore.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/. As of 210 PM EDT Saturday .

A fair amount of model differences exist from mid week into next weekend, resulting in a low confidence forecast for the extended period. The GFS continues to have an upper low over the northeast around midweek while the ECMWF has a flat/broad trough extending from the northern Plains into England (resulting in NW flow aloft over the local area). Will continue with a mostly dry forecast for Wednesday through next Saturday with no higher than slight chance pops. Cooler temps are expected for the middle to end of next week with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s.

AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. As of 805 PM EDT Saturday .

Low pressure is spinning over IL as of 00z, with high pressure located well offshore. Bands of showers and a few embedded tstms are pushing northeastward well in advance of the low. The first band is moving across western VA/NC and this will bring some scattered showers to RIC through 06z, with a slight chc of tstms. Otherwise, the main band of showers will move SW-NE across the region primarily between 06-12z. MVFR/IFR vsby is possible in moderate to heavy rain. Cigs are expected to be primarily VFR prior to the arrival of showers, and then drop to MVFR/IFR after the onset of rain and lingering a few hours after the rain ends. Model guidance is trying to show some low cigs and reduced vsby at SBY prior to 06z due to oceanic stratus moving onshore. However, satellite data shows no marine stratus presently, so confidence on this low and has not been forecast at SBY. Cigs are expected to lift quickly Sunday morning, as a SSW wind of 8-12kt develops across the area, with gusts to 15-20kt. There is a chc of scattered afternoon showers/tstms ahead of the main cold front Sunday afternoon.

Drier and mainly VFR conditions expected into early next week. More clouds and a slight chc of showers arrive by midweek as an upper trough develops across the area.

MARINE. As of 210 PM EDT Saturday .

No SCAs anticipated in the short term. SE to S winds aob 15 kt and 3- 4 ft seas will continue through tonight. Winds turn more SSW Sun ahead of a cold front that will cross the waters Sun night. Winds shift to the NW Sun night/Mon then turn ENE Mon night and Tue as high pressure passes to the north. Little if any CAA surge noted behind the fropa so expect winds below SCA levels thru the period.

Although seas may flirt with 5 ft out near 20 nm Sun, confidence not high enough to warrant SCA issuance. Otherwise, seas 2-4 ft with waves 1-2 ft through early next week.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . None. NC . None. VA . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . LKB NEAR TERM . AJZ/LKB SHORT TERM . CMF/LKB LONG TERM . JDM AVIATION . AJZ MARINE . JDM

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
NCDV2	34 mi	54 min	SE 8 G 9.9	60°F	64°F		1006.7 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD	52 mi	54 min	SE 9.9 G 11
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA	54 mi	54 min	S 8.9 G 9.9	63°F	57°F		1007.6 hPa
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA	56 mi	87 min	SE 2.9	63°F			1009 hPa	57°F

Wind History for Piney Point, MD

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Ashland, Hanover County Municipal Airport, VA	18 mi	18 min	E 4	10.00 mi	Overcast	64°F	60°F	87%	1006.2 hPa
Fredericksburg, Shannon Airport, VA	21 mi	37 min	SE 4	10.00 mi	Rain	66°F	58°F	73%	1006.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KOFP

Wind History from OFP (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for Massaponax, Rappahannock River, Virginia

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Tide / Current Tables for Corbins Neck, Rappahannock River, Virginia

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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