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Marine Weather and Tides Lake Caroline, VA Version 3.4

NOTICE 10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones. 9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them. 7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports. 6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

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Sunrise 7:09AM

Sunset 4:52PM

Friday December 6, 2019 12:29 AM EST (05:29 UTC)

Moonrise 2:01PM

Moonset 1:30AM

Illumination 68%

NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lake Caroline, VA

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Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA

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FXUS61 KAKQ 060241 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 941 PM EST Thu Dec 5 2019

SYNOPSIS. A weak front crosses the area late Friday into early Saturday with high pressure returning for the weekend. Strong low pressure tracks well to the northwest of the area early next week, dragging a strong cold front through the area by midweek.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/. As of 940 PM EST Thursday .

Late this evening, sfc high pressure (~1023 mb) was centered near the SE NC coast. The sky was clear to mostly clear across the area with CI developing along and east of the mtns over extrm NW/wrn counties. Temps ranged from the upper 20s to upper 30s with light and variable winds. The high will slide eastward to just off the NC coast by 12Z Fri. Expect high clouds to affect nrn and wrn counties overnight, with temps only dropping a couple degrees more in the next few hours before leveling off, as very light S winds develop twd morning.

SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/. As of 345 PM EST Thursday .

The surface high will move off the Carolina coast on Friday. An shortwave/area of sfc low pressure tracks to our N on Fri while another weaker low passes by well to our S. The low to our N will drag a cold front toward the region during the day on Fri before it crosses the area from N to S late Fri evening-Fri night. Mid/upper level moisture rapidly increases ahead of the front, while the layer below 850 mb remains quite dry through much of the day. Clouds increase during the day but no pcpn is expected through 21z. There is some indication that low-levels may saturate just enough for areas across srn VA/NE NC to see some very light pcpn from 21z Fri-06z Sat (along/ahead of the front). A minority of the latest 12z HREF members have a few hundredths of an inch of QPF from the SW Piedmont to NE NC. For now, will keep it dry in most areas with 15-20% PoPs across srn zones. Highs mainly in the low-mid 50s on Fri.

The cold front moves well to our S by 12z Sat as ~1030 mb high pressure builds into the Great Lakes. There will be modest cold air advection behind the front, but it will not be that cold for early December (850 mb temps of -1 to -3C). Lows Saturday morning will be in the low 30s N, with mainly mid-upper 30s S/SE. Strong high pressure builds from the Great Lakes to the Northeast on Saturday. While it will be mostly sunny, the cool N/NE flow will hold high temps to the mid and upper 40s. The high becomes centered from New England to central VA by Sun AM. This will allow winds to relax/skies to remain mostly clear (providing good conditions for radiational cooling). Lows Sun AM range from the mid 20s north/west to the low-mid 30s in coastal SE VA/NE NC. The high moves offshore of the New England coast on Sun, allowing winds to turn back to the S/SE. Aloft, troughing starts to establish itself over the Rockies/High Plains. The flow aloft will become WSW then SW over the region, allowing deep-layer moisture to slowly increase. Clouds increase on Sun, but it will remain dry through 00z Mon. The first of a series of upper level disturbances tracks across the area Sun night. This will result in increased shower chances starting Sun night (PoPs of 50-60% by late Sun night). Milder Sun with highs around 50F NW to the upper 50s in coastal SE VA/NE NC.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. As of 345 PM EST Thursday .

The aforementioned trough aloft quickly amplifies across the Plains early next week as sfc low pressure deepens as it tracks from the Plains to the Great Lakes. A series of upper disturbances will continue to track toward/across the region through Tue as the associated cold front slowly approaches from the W/NW. Strong WAA will continue through Tue (850 mb temps rising to 8-12C by 12z Tue) under deep-layered SW flow. With the area likely remaining in the warm sector from Mon-Tue, expect a good chc of (occasional) showers to continue from Mon through Tue. Have high chc-likely PoPs through much of this time period, as it is too far out to be specific with the exact timing of each occurrence of showers. Mild Monday w/ highs in the upper 50s to around 60F in the piedmont west of RIC, with low-mid 60s E of I-95.

The frontal passage likely holds off until sometime during the latter half of the day on Tue. As a result, look for highs well into the 60s on Tuesday . with the potential for some low 70s in Hampton Roads/NE NC with any aftn sun. High-end chc PoPs continue through the day on Tue with some post-frontal RA possible Tue night-early Wed (especially SE). Lows Tue night range from the mid 30s north/west to the low 40s in SE VA/NE NC.

Strong high pressure builds into the Great Lakes by midweek, but it quickly migrates eastward (becoming centered over New England by Thursday evening). This will result in a short-lived period of below average temperatures on Wed/Thu, due to cold Canadian air sweeping across the region behind the departing front. Forecast highs are mainly in the 40s on Wed/Thu, although mid- upper 30s are possible across central/nrn zones. Model consensus is forecasting the high to move offshore of the New England Coast on Fri as low pressure develops near the Gulf Coast (which will likely impact the ern CONUS by next weekend).

AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. As of 705 PM EST Thursday .

VFR conditions will prevail through the 00z TAF period. It is clear across the CWA this evening as of 700 pm. Low pressure over the Canadian Maritimes will continue to track away to the NE tonight, as sfc high pressure builds east to the Carolina coast by 12z Fri. Winds will be variable 5 kt or less this evening into early Fri morning under a clear sky. BKN mid-high clouds will increase during Fri ahead of a low pressure system/associated cold front. CIGs likely remain no lower than 7-10k feet through 00z Sat.

The front crosses the region from N to S Fri evening/Fri night. The chc of pcpn is very low (aob 20%) with the frontal passage (highest PoPs at ECG). CIGs/VSBYs are expected to remain VFR Fri aftn-Fri night. SW winds increase to 10-12 kt on Fri (a few gusts of 15-20 kt possible). Winds turn to the W/NW behind the front. High pressure then builds in for the weekend. Mainly VFR CIGs/VSBYs are expected through the weekend.

MARINE. As of 340 PM EST Thursday .

Winds are decreasing as high pressure moves in from the SW this afternoon. Winds will be W 5-10 kt across the bay and rives this evening and WNW 10-15 kt across the ocean zones. SW winds will increase late Friday morning ahead of an approaching cold front. Winds will be SSW around 15 kt across the Chesapeake Bay and SSW 15- 20 kt across the ocean (with gust up to 28 kt off Delmarva Friday afternoon). Cold front will move across the coastal waters from N to S late Friday evening into Friday night. Winds will quickly increase behind the front to N-NNE 20-25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt across the bay and ocean Friday night. The center of the high pressure will move over the region by Saturday morning with winds diminishing to N 10-15 kt for the day on Saturday.

Starting tonight, waves in the Chesapeake Bay will be 1-2 ft and seas in the ocean will be 2-4 ft through Friday afternoon. Wave in the Chesapeake will increase to 2-3 ft behind the front Friday night into Saturday morning. In the ocean, seas will be 3-4 ft off of Delmarva and 4-6 ft off of VA Beach and the northern Outer Banks behind the cold front Friday night into Saturday morning.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . None. NC . None. VA . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . TMG NEAR TERM . ERI/TMG SHORT TERM . CMF/ERI LONG TERM . ERI AVIATION . ERI/TMG MARINE . CP

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
NCDV2	34 mi	66 min	Calm G 1	35°F	48°F		1021.5 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD	52 mi	60 min	SE 1.9 G 1.9
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA	54 mi	66 min	SW 1.9 G 2.9	38°F	46°F		1022.3 hPa
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA	56 mi	60 min	WSW 1	30°F			1023 hPa	29°F

Wind History for Piney Point, MD

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W10 G13

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NW18 G23

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N6

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N7 G10

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Ashland, Hanover County Municipal Airport, VA	18 mi	36 min	N 0	10.00 mi	Fair	31°F	26°F	82%	1023 hPa
Fredericksburg, Shannon Airport, VA	21 mi	35 min	N 0	10.00 mi	Fair	33°F	26°F	75%	1022.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KOFP

Wind History from OFP (wind in knots)

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Calm

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W8

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W9 G15

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W10 G19

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NE3

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W5

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Tide / Current Tables for Massaponax, Rappahannock River, Virginia

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Tide / Current Tables for Corbins Neck, Rappahannock River, Virginia

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (0,6,7,8)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA

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