Monday, August19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lake Caroline, VA

Version 3.4
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7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:27AMSunset 7:59PM Monday August 19, 2019 12:20 PM EDT (16:20 UTC) Moonrise 9:22PMMoonset 9:04AM Illumination 83% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ536 Tidal Potomac From Indian Head To Cobb Island- 1035 Am Edt Mon Aug 19 2019
Rest of today..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Isolated showers and tstms late this morning, then scattered showers and tstms this afternoon.
Tonight..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Scattered showers and tstms.
Tue..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tue night..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Thu..W winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri..N winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 1035 Am Edt Mon Aug 19 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure over the atlantic will deliver a light southerly flow over the region through Tuesday. A cold front will approach the waters Wednesday into Thursday. Small craft advisories may be needed for portions of the waters Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lake Caroline, VA
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location: 37.96, -77.48     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 191446
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
1046 am edt Mon aug 19 2019

Synopsis
Weak high pressure will be over the region today, then settles
off the coast Tuesday. A weak trough passes through the area
late Tuesday into Wednesday morning. A cold front approaches
from the northwest Thursday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
As of 1045 am edt Monday...

no major changes to the current forecast. Scattered to isolated
thunderstorms will develop this afternoon as a weak upper
disturance and surface trough moves north of the area. Best
chances for thunderstorms will be mainly north and west of ric,
although the entire region could see a pop up storm develop. As
such, have raised pops to 30% across the northern tier (n of
ric) as this area is closer to the upper forcing. Otherwise,
another seasonably hot humid day with temps in the low-mid 90s
with heat index readings close to 100.

As of 410 am edt Monday...

early this morning, weak high pressure was building into the
area, providing dry wx under a clear to mostly clear sky. Temps
ranged thru the 70s.

Today will largely be dominated by mid and upper level ridging
and weak high pressure centered off the SE coast. Hot and humid
conditions develop as 850mb temps rise to ~20c today, and this
should support high temps in the lower to mid 90s (upper 80s at
the coast). Dewpoints potentially remain 70-75f during peak
heating resulting in heat indices of 100-104f. Pops are around
20% at most this aftn early this evening, and primarily confined
to the piedmont and SE va NE nc.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Wednesday
As of 410 am edt Monday...

not much change for tonight and tue, as mid and upper level
ridging and weak high pressure will remain centered off the
se coast. Hot and humid conditions again on tue, but not as hot
by a degree or two, as a subtle mid-level trough approaches
from the wnw later Tue aftn into Tue night. Pops increase to
20-40% W Tue aftn, and 20% or less e, followed by 30-40% pops n
tue evening early Tue night, and 20-30% s. 19 00z nam GFS each
show the airmass destabilizing Tue aftn with strong surface
heating and rich low-level moisture, although the NAM is quite
more robust with the amount of instability. There is a low
probability of some stronger tstms (mainly n). This is
conditional on tstms developing upstream and feeding off the
downstream buoyancy. Otherwise, continued warm and humid tue
night with lows in the lower to mid 70s. Hot and humid
conditions continue wed, as there is little change in the
airmass behind the trough. 850mb temps are still ~19c, so highs
should at least be in the lower 90s (upper 80s at the coast).

Dewpoints remain in the lower 70s resulting in heat indices in
the upper 90s to lower 100s.

Long term Wednesday night through Sunday
As of 335 pm Sunday...

a potent area of low pressure (sfc-aloft) tracks across quebec
thu- Thu night while the trailing cold front slowly approaches
the region from the nw. As the cold front approaches the region
by late thu, expect organized convection to develop across
northern western zones Thu aftn and move to the E SE during the
evening-overnight. Tstms are forecast to peak in
intensity coverage during the late aftn- evening, but will
likely persist through early Fri am. Convection likely impacts
at least the NRN two-thirds of the CWA from Thu aftn- Thu night.

As a result, raised pops to 60% across va md, while keeping
pops of 30-50% across NE nc. Model consensus has the front
stalling across SRN va by 12z fri, although the 12z 18 GFS is
forecasting the front to clear the area by this time. The cold
front potentially stalls (or very slowly moves southward) from
fri-next weekend. This happens as ridging over the WRN atlantic
tries to gradually build back westward. If the front stalls or
slowly moves across SRN portions of the CWA from Fri through the
weekend, this would lead to continued chances of scattered
aftn-evening convection across SRN va NE nc. Northern portions
of the CWA likely remain dry next weekend (or see only isolated,
diurnally-driven showers tstms) as sfc high pressure over the
great lakes northeast tries to build toward the region.

Highs mainly in the low 90s on thu, cooling into the mid 80s
for most areas by Fri (mid 80s last through the weekend).

Forecast lows are mainly in the low-mid 70s on thu, with mid-
upper 60s inland around 70f near the coast from Fri through mon.

Aviation 15z Monday through Friday
As of 300 am edt Monday...

early this morning, weak high pressure was building into the
area, providingVFR dry conditions at the TAF sites with light
ssw winds. MainlyVFR conditions will prevail at the TAF sites
today into Tue morning. Some CU is expected this aftn, with a
low probability (20% or less) of an aftn evening shower or tstm.

Outlook: a trough will track across the area late Tue aftn into
wed morning, bringing a 20-40% chc of showers tstms. The chc
for showers tstms lessens wed, and then increases Thu as a cold
front approaches from the nw. The potential for showers tstms
could linger into fri, if the cold front slows down or stalls
over the region.

Marine
As of 400 am edt Monday...

no headlines thru mid week as high pressure settles over the area.

S-sw winds remain below 15 kt. Waves 1-2 ft, seas 2-3 ft.

A cold front apprchs by late week. The pressure gradient tightens
ahead of this feature Wed nite thurs but remain below SCA levels.

Seas build to 3-4 ft. Winds shift to the n-ne behind the fropa
fri.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Tmg mrd
near term... Tmg
short term... Ajz tmg
long term... Eri
aviation... Tmg
marine... Mpr rhr


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NCDV2 34 mi57 min WNW 1.9 G 5.1 89°F 87°F1015.6 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 52 mi51 min SE 5.1 G 7
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 54 mi57 min SSW 4.1 G 5.1 89°F 86°F1016.1 hPa
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 56 mi51 min E 1.9 90°F 1018 hPa80°F

Wind History for Piney Point, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ashland, Hanover County Municipal Airport, VA18 mi27 minWSW 810.00 miFair93°F71°F49%1016.9 hPa
Fredericksburg, Shannon Airport, VA21 mi46 minWSW 510.00 miFair91°F74°F59%1016.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KOFP

Wind History from OFP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr4Calm55CalmE3E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS44S5SW5W8
1 day ago--E64--E3SE33S5S6SW4SW3CalmS4SE3S4S33CalmCalmCalmS4S533
2 days agoCalm35E3E6NE3E4E3SE3E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Massaponax, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Massaponax
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Mon -- 05:19 AM EDT     0.49 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:27 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:04 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 10:16 AM EDT     2.72 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:28 PM EDT     0.34 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:58 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:21 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:36 PM EDT     2.75 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.31.81.30.90.60.50.611.82.52.72.72.41.91.40.90.50.40.40.81.52.32.72.7

Tide / Current Tables for Corbins Neck, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Corbins Neck
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:34 AM EDT     0.53 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:27 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:55 AM EDT     2.90 feet High Tide
Mon -- 10:03 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 04:43 PM EDT     0.37 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:57 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:15 PM EDT     2.93 feet High Tide
Mon -- 10:21 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.21.61.10.80.60.60.91.62.32.82.92.72.31.71.20.70.40.40.61.32.12.72.92.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.