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Marine Weather and Tides Lake Caroline, VA Version 3.4

NOTICE 1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17. 1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

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Sunrise 6:36AM

Sunset 6:07PM

Wednesday March 3, 2021 6:38 AM EST (11:38 UTC)

Moonrise 11:21PM

Moonset 9:21AM

Illumination 77%

NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lake Caroline, VA

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Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA

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FXUS61 KAKQ 031128 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 628 AM EST Wed Mar 3 2021

SYNOPSIS. Low pressure tracks off the Carolina coast today. High pressure returns later in the week. Dry weather continues through at least this weekend as another area of low pressure tracks well to the south of the local area.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. As of 300 AM EST Wednesday .

Early this morning, high pressure is centered just offshore of the NC Outer Banks, while low pressure is starting to organize off the coast of srn South Carolina. The associated shortwave aloft is moving eastward over the srn Appalachians. Locally, skies are clear across central/nrn portions of the FA, with BKN high clouds over far SE VA and NE NC. Winds are light out of the SSW with temperatures in the upper 20s to low 30s in most areas. Regional radar mosaic shows an area of light rain as far north as south-central and SE North Carolina.

The upper shortwave is progged to move off the Carolina coast by midday Wed. Meanwhile, the aforementioned surface low will push offshore today while deepening. The low will track well south of the area, and any pcpn is still expected to remain south of the FA. Will keep a dry forecast (PoPs below 15%) for all areas today. Sky conditions will average out mostly sunny NW with a partly to mostly cloudy sky in SE (with mainly high clouds). Forecast highs are in the low-mid 50s on the Eastern Shore, mid to upper 50s across SE VA/NE NC, and around/just above 60F across central VA and the VA Piedmont.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/. As of 300 AM EST Wednesday .

The sky clears this evening/tonight with low temperatures falling into the 30s. A dry cold front crosses the area on Thursday. High pressure near the Hudson Bay will start to build in from the NW following the FROPA. NW winds are expected to gust to 15-25 mph (highest NE) during the day on Thu. Seasonable high temperatures in the 50s in most areas (upper 40s-near 50F on the Ern Shore) for Thursday under a mostly sunny sky. A secondary (stronger) CAA surge arrives from the NNW Thu night/early Fri AM, with 925 mb temperatures dropping to -6 to -9C by 12z Fri. Dry wx continues on Friday as the high to our NW remains in control. It will be a bit cooler on Friday, with breezy conditions expected over (at least) ern portions of the FA. Highs range from the low-mid 40s on the ern Shore to around 50F over the VA Piedmont.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/. As of 300 AM EST Wednesday .

Mainly dry weather for Friday night through early next week. Another upper shortwave is progged to track from the Deep South to off the SE CONUS coast from Friday night through Saturday. A strong long wave trough over eastern Canada will keep this system and its moisture suppressed well to our south (from srn SC to FL). This will also keep temps below seasonal averages through the weekend (w/ continued low-level NNW flow). Highs Sat/Sun will generally be in the mid 40s to low 50s. Lows in the mid 20s to low 30s. Milder early next week with highs in the upr 40s to 50s Monday and mid 50s to mid 60s next Tuesday.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. As of 625 AM EST Wednesday .

VFR conditions will continue through the period. BKN CIGs ~4000 ft AGL near ECG should move away by no later than 15z. Otherwise, expect SCT-BKN high clouds over the southern half of the area through this aftn as low pressure tracks off the coast of South Carolina. Any pcpn associated with this system is expected to remain to our south. SKC conditions return to all terminals by this evening. SW winds of 5-10 kts are expected today. Winds become light this evening through the first part of tonight before turning to the NW late.

OUTLOOK . A prolonged period of generally benign weather is expected Thursday into early next week as high pressure builds back over the area.

MARINE. As of 210 AM EST Wednesday .

Sfc hi pres is now off the coast . and winds are mainly SSW avgg aob 15 kt (a bit higher over portions of the nrn bay/ocean). Lo pres tracks by S of the local waters today and exits tonight. Winds will remain generally SSW w/ speeds remaining aob 15 kt into tonight.

A cold front drops across the local waters Thu morning . w/ poss brief period of enhanced speeds to may low end SCA . esp on the bay (though wind probs have potential generally only to 20-40%) Winds diminish into the afternoon. which will be followed by a second/stronger period of CAA (w/ SCAs likely mainly on the bay and perhaps the lower James river/sound). Holding off on raising SCAs attm given stronger/more prolonged period of enhanced wind speeds is in the 4th-early 5th periods of the fcst.

Generally benign marine conditions then favored over the weekend as sfc hi pres then builds over the FA Fri into Sat. The high then slides offshore late in the weekend into early next week w/ another weak sfc lo pres moves E-NE across the Gulf coast to the southeast coast. Looking to remain sub-SCA through this time frame . w/ with winds out of the N-NW Sun-Mon

HYDROLOGY. As of 300 AM EST Wednesday .

A Flood Warning remains in effect for Richmond-Westham and the gage crested at 12.55 ft yesterday afternoon. See FLSAKQ and water.weather.gov for more details.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . None. NC . None. VA . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . ERI/JDM NEAR TERM . ERI SHORT TERM . ERI/JDM LONG TERM . ERI/JDM AVIATION . ERI MARINE . ALB HYDROLOGY . AKQ

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Wind History for Piney Point, MD

(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Ashland, Hanover County Municipal Airport, VA	18 mi	44 min	S 4	10.00 mi	Fair	32°F	26°F	79%	1018.2 hPa
Fredericksburg, Shannon Airport, VA	21 mi	63 min	SE 5	10.00 mi	Fair	28°F	25°F	89%	1017.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KOFP

Wind History from OFP (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for Massaponax, Rappahannock River, Virginia

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Tide / Current Tables for Corbins Neck, Rappahannock River, Virginia

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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