Thursday, August13, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Lake Caroline, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:23AMSunset 8:06PM Thursday August 13, 2020 9:58 PM EDT (01:58 UTC) Moonrise 12:02AMMoonset 2:47PM Illumination 24% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ536 Tidal Potomac From Indian Head To Cobb Island- 738 Pm Edt Thu Aug 13 2020
Tonight..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms this evening, then a chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms after midnight.
Fri..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri night..NE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat..NE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.
Sat night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.
Sun..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.
Sun night..N winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon..NW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Tue..SW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 738 Pm Edt Thu Aug 13 2020
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A stationary front will remain near the mid atlantic through Saturday before gradually moving to the south late in the weekend. A cold front will approach early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lake Caroline, VA
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location: 37.96, -77.48     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 140010 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 810 PM EDT Thu Aug 13 2020

SYNOPSIS. A trough of low pressure across the area, will result in numerous showers and and thunderstorms through Friday. A cold front pushes south into Virginia Friday night, then stalls near the Virginia North Carolina border over the weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/. As of 725 PM EDT Thursday .

Although ISOLD/SCT SHRAs/tstms remain . coverage/rainfall rates continue to diminish Therefore. will be canceling the Flash Flood Watch shortly. Remaining mostly cloudy overnight w/ patchy FG. Lows mainly 70-75F.

SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/. As of 300 PM EDT Thursday .

Unsettled weather continues into Sunday. Latest NWP guidance suggests that Friday will see continued showers and storms, perhaps focused more east of I-95 as moisture wraps into the area on the west side of the surface low just off the coast. Still, will go with likely pops everywhere on Friday afternoon given the high precipitable water values > 2.0" on Friday. Another area of low pressure develops over the Great Lakes through TN Valley on Friday associated with a weak upper trough. This combined with the continued trough just south of the area will allow for another round of showers and storms during the day on Saturday into Saturday night. Again, with precipitable water values at or above 2 inches, could not rule out heavy rain again. The GFS and ECMWF continue to show the surface trough nearby even into Sunday so another day of showers/storms with locally heavy rain possible again especially Sunday afternoon.

Overall, highs in the mid 80s each day with lows in the lower 70s. Continued very muggy through the weekend.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/. As of 1250 PM EDT Thursday .

An upper trough axis digs into the Great Lakes and northeast early next week, then eventually elongates southward to the GOMEX by the middle of next week. Unfortunately, this means the unsettled pattern will stay with us through much of next week. Monday/Tuesday look to be the least active days (lowest PoPs for next week) with PoPs in the 25-40% range. They then ramp up again by the middle and end of next week. Am not expecting as much heavy rainfall potential as the precipitable water values will not be as high as they are now. Otherwise, temperatures should be seasonable with highs in the mid- upper 80s and lows in the mid 60s to lower 70s.

AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. As of 810 PM EDT Thursday .

Showers and storms are beginning to taper off this evening. Primarily VFR/MVFR conditions will prevail through late tonight before ceilings lower to widespread MVFR and isolated IFR heights. The greatest chance for IFR ceilings will be between 09-13z. Patchy fog will once again be possible between 06-13z. Shower/storms chances increase once again tomorrow afternoon into the evening but will keep the mention of thunder out of the TAF for now. Winds are generally NE 5-10 kt but will become light and variable tonight. Primarily VFR/MVFR tomorrow although any heavy shower/storm has the potential to briefly drop visibility to IFR.

Outlook: Nmrs shwrs/tstms continue through Sunday as deep moisture continues to along the the sfc trof/cold front.

MARINE. As of 400 PM EDT Thursday .

Surface area of low pressure is located across eastern North Carolina this afternoon. Winds have become easterly 10-15 kt, with a few brief gusts up to 20 kt. These conditions will continue into Friday. The center of the low is expected to track off the coast, between VA Beach and Kill Devils Hill NC, Friday evening. As the low moves off the coast this weekend, winds will likely become NE 10-20 kt (highest winds still expected for the northern coastal waters). High pressure will be building in from the north as well, enhancing the pressure gradient between it and the low pressure off the coast.

Waves in the Chesapeake Bay will be 1-2 ft through the forecast period. Seas will build from 1-2 ft today and Friday to 3-5 ft this weekend and into early next week.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . None. NC . None. VA . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . MPR/MRD NEAR TERM . ALB/MRD SHORT TERM . MRD LONG TERM . JDM AVIATION . RMM MARINE . CP


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NCDV2 34 mi76 min 78°F 85°F
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 52 mi88 min E 8 G 12
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 54 mi70 min 81°F 83°F
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 56 mi88 min ENE 1.9 79°F 1016 hPa74°F

Wind History for Piney Point, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ashland, Hanover County Municipal Airport, VA18 mi64 minN 010.00 miFair74°F72°F94%1016.2 hPa
Fredericksburg, Shannon Airport, VA21 mi63 minN 010.00 miFair77°F75°F94%1016.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KOFP

Wind History from OFP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm3CalmCalmN3E3N3NE4NE55Calm6NE8CalmCalmN3CalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmS4S6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE5E34NW8
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2 days ago4CalmCalmS43CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS7CalmSW3SW53S5E3S553SW6S4NE3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Massaponax, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Massaponax
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:00 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 02:38 AM EDT     2.72 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:23 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:23 AM EDT     0.64 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:26 PM EDT     2.32 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:47 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 08:05 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:51 PM EDT     0.50 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.72.42.72.72.52.21.81.410.80.60.71.11.72.12.32.32.11.71.20.80.60.50.6

Tide / Current Tables for Corbins Neck, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Corbins Neck
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:00 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 02:17 AM EDT     2.90 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:22 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:38 AM EDT     0.68 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:05 PM EDT     2.47 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:47 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 08:04 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:06 PM EDT     0.53 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.22.72.92.82.62.11.61.20.90.70.711.522.42.52.421.510.70.50.61

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.