Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Country Club, CA

DISCUSSION

500mb pattern aloft continues to bring southerly flow through California increasing our moisture aloft and elevated instability. HIRES guidance shows the development of thunderstorms in the Coastal Range, Shasta county, southern Cascades, and through the Sierra this afternoon and evening. Likely timeframe of development and chances are 20z through 5z where elevated instability is highest. A majority of the thunderstorms will be wet, but a few could be dry. Inverted "V" soundings within the mountains through the 700mb level show the potential for those dry thunderstorms. Fuel conditions and stronger winds bring the elevated chance for fire weather concerns for the mountains due to the dry thunderstorm chances. There is a chance a few storms may be on the stronger side producing gusty outflow winds, small hail, frequent lightning, and in some cases brief heavier rainfall. A few storms may develop in the northern Sacramento Valley into the foothills as well, but chances are less than 20 percent at this time. Guidance continues to trend downward on the threat of nocturnal thunderstorms with chances less than 10 percent for the mountains tonight into Wednesday morning. Instability is lacking in the overnight hours to help fuel continuing thunderstorm chances.

We will continue with the elevated fire weather concerns today due to the dry thunderstorm chances in the mountains. There is further chances for elevated fire weather concerns on Wednesday in portions of the southern Sacramento Valley and northern San Joaquin Valley due to increased winds through the terrain coupled with the low RH values.

There does exist the chance for further thunderstorm chances in the Sierra Wednesday afternoon and evening from lingering moisture and elevated instability. Chances are less than 20 percent at this time. A few of the storms could be dry and we will continue to monitor closely. Otherwise, we will see widespread moderate HeatRisk today and tomorrow across the area, with areas seeing triple digit heat.

Thursday and Friday, onshore flow will increase helping to cool conditions off for parts of the Valley. Temperatures are expected to be in the upper 80s to 90s Thursday through Friday, with the warmest conditions in the northern Sacramento Valley.

Further into the weekend, we may see additional monsoonal moisture surges into the area, with PWAT values approaching roughly 160 percent of normal by Saturday. With a ridge developing near the Four Corners region by the weekend, this setup will once again favor afternoon/evening mountain precipitation chances. Elevated instability in the mountains brings the chance for thunderstorms as well over the weekend. We will continue to monitor for the chance of a few dry thunderstorms during this time, and how far into the Valley the thunderstorms develop.

AVIATION

VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period, with FEW to SCT clouds moving in this afternoon and evening. Chance for VCTS or isolated thunderstorms around RBL and RDD this afternoon and evening, but chances are less than 15 percent. Onshore flow later this evening and overnight for the Sacramento sites, MOD, and SCK. Clearing conditions overnight and into tomorrow morning, with light and variable winds.

STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.