Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lagunitas-Forest Knolls, CA

SHORT TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 309 AM PDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Stratus cloud cover is limited early this morning so far compared to stratus cloud coverage this time yesterday morning. Satellite shows a few areas of cirrus and patchy coastal stratus developing.
Friday afternoon's drying on northwest winds decidedly mixed out the stratus, a signature of a robust mid-latitude dry air intrusion with surface dew point temps (water vapor) still limited at this hour and stratus trying to get a foothold. Aside from cirrus possibly slowing radiational cooling a little, much of the troposphere is dry with the precipitable water (0.44" i.e. near the 10th percentile for mid June) on Friday evening's Oakland upper air sounding. It's chilly again with 40s/50s this morning across low lying elevations while it's milder in the 60s at elevation in the hills/mtn tops in the lower level temperature inversion. Daytime highs today will be about the same as yesterday's with highs upper 50s/60s coastside to the 70s/80s/lower 90s inland, warmest to hottest farthest inland.

LONG TERM
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 309 AM PDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Sunday's weather will be about the same as today's, not much change in morning lows and daytime highs. On Monday a weak and dry 500 mb trough will pass eastward across our forecast area then become replaced by increasing 500 mb heights (ridging)
Tuesday. By later Wed-Thu the global models forecast strengthening of the surface high over the Eastern Pacific and lowering of surface pressures over the Central Valley. As mentioned yesterday morning, a steepening in the northerly ACV-SFO pressure gradient and winds is forecast. Surface theta-e on the latest ECMWF still shows a reinforcement of cooler and drier air arriving from the northwest Wednesday evening and night. This stronger northerly pattern may temporarily bump up daytime highs a few degrees above normal during mid week with cooling returning late in the week.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1027 AM PDT Sat Jun 14 2025

VFR conditions have returned to most TAF sites, with MVFR conditions still at HAF but should scatter out here shortly. Onshore winds will increase once again this afternoon with VFR conditions expected through the evening. Wind ease overnight, but generally will remain out of the west-northwest across the Bay Area terminals. There is low confidence for IFR/MVFR ceilings to develop over the Bay Area terminals early Sunday morning, but moderate to high confidence for them to reach the Bay Area terminals. Low clouds that do develop will mix out by late Sunday morning with an increase in onshore winds by Sunday afternoon.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR. Onshore winds increase this afternoon with gusts up to 26 KT. Low confidence for ceilings to reach SFO early Sunday morning and have left out of the TAF at this time. However, do have MVFR ceilings at OAK from 10Z-16Z Sunday as there is greater potential there. Low clouds that do develop will mix out by late Sunday morning with an increase in onshore winds by Sunday afternoon.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR. Onshore winds increase this afternoon and will ease late this evening. Moderate to high confidence for IFR/MVFR ceilings to return early Sunday morning.

MARINE
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 1027 AM PDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Fresh to strong northwesterly breezes, near gale force gusts, and moderate to rough seas will prevail through Wednesday. Localized gale force gusts will develop near the coastal jet regions of Point Reyes and Point Sur during the afternoon and evening hours.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 252 AM PDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Elevated fire weather conditions prevail through the weekend.
Night/morning marine layer will remain with cooler temperatures and excellent humidity recovery at lower elevations. Above the marine layer (higher hills/mts) and areas not directly impacted by the marine layer will see moderate to poor humidity recoveries.
The lack of humidity recovery will keep finer fuels, like grasses, drier and more susceptible to fire starts. Additionally, given the onshore flow, winds will be gusty each afternoon/evening for inland valleys (Salinas Valley), and gaps/passes.

The large view for the interior Central Coast shows ERC values barely exceeding average, burn index close to seasonal averages, and 100 hr fuel moisture slightly below seasonal averages.

Marine layer will hover 1700-2100 feet the next few days.

MM

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Sunday for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this evening for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.