Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Captains Cove, VA

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 740 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Mainly dry tonight, other than a few light showers from south central VA to interior NE NC early this evening.

- Rain overspreads the region from SW to NE Monday, with moderate to locally heavy rain possible across the piedmont.

The latest WX analysis indicates strong (~1030mb) sfc high pressure centered across the eastern Great Lakes, with a weak sfc trough from the TN/OH Valley to near the Mason Dixon Line, and remnant sfc high pressure offshore of the Carolinas. Still mainly dry locally, other than a few light showers over northeast NC. Elsewhere, high clouds have thickened but conditions are dry. With the sfc high to our N expected to drop SE overnight, it will take awhile for the moisture to our S to lift N into the local area, such that the showers late this aftn will tend to diminish after sunset. Lows tonight range from the mid 50s across the N to the low/mid 60s for the S and SE portions of the area. Later tonight, the Gulf coast upper low finally starts to eject ENE, moving slowly towards the TN Valley by Monday aftn. Overall, 12z/11 model trends are fairly similar to last night's runs, lifting moisture into the area on Monday, with increasing SSW flow aloft allowing for building PW values into the 1.25-1.50" range over the SW portion of the area late tonight, increasing to 1.50"-1.75" across most of the CWA Monday aftn.

Expect scattered showers to develop across the far SW corner of the area well after midnight late tonight, then spreading to the E-NE toward sunrise Monday morning, as better forcing arrives from the SW. Model consensus continues to show an increasing S to SE low level jet around 30 kt to the SW of the CWA Monday morning, moving east to the I-95 corridor by the aftn, along with diffluent flow aloft. Have maintained 70-90% PoPs along and W of I-95 by Monday afternoon, tapered to only low chc PoPs on the ern shore. Thunder isn't in the forecast, with the exception of the far SW counties where some elevated instability may try to sneak northward. Given the lowering clouds and incoming rain, expect that temps likely struggle to get much above 70F over the piedmont, with mid to upper 70s along and E of I-95 where PoPs remain lower most of the day.
While some heavy rain is possible during the day Monday (mainly W of I-95 and over interior NE NC), a more widespread moderate to heavy rain appears more likely Monday night as the low level jet and best lift look to spread farther to the east. Given this timing, decided again a Flood Watch for no, with the Day 2 ERO Slight more due to expected rain between 00Z Tue-12Z Tue for most areas.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
As of 400 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Periods of rain are expected from Monday night through Tuesday night. Confidence continues to increase that much of the region will see a period of moderate to locally heavy rainfall during this period.

Mon night-Tue:

Unsettled wx is expected to persist from Monday night through Tuesday, with likely to categorical PoPs area-wide. The closed low over the deep south gradually opens up, but moves slowly into the lower OH Valley by Tuesday night. There may be a brief lull in the precip Mon evening, but late Mon night into Tuesday still looks to be the wettest period overall. Numerous showers (and perhaps a few tstms) are expected through the day (and into Tuesday night), as low pressure lifts across the coastal plain with the associated weak warm front also lifting through Tuesday evening, shifting winds from the SE to SSW. As PWs rise to 1.6-1.8" area-wide, expect widespread rain amounts on the order of 1" or more. With elevated rainfall amounts expected (after the potential for already having received significant rainfall on Monday), would expect that at least isolated instances of flash flooding will be a concern, especially in urban and poor drainage areas. The WPC Day 3 Excessive Rainfall outlook has a Slight Risk for all of the CWA west of the Chesapeake Bay, while maintaining a Marginal Risk over the Eastern Shore. The latest QPF forecast through 12Z/Wed still averages 2-3" over the SW third of the area, with 1.5-2.5" for the rest of the CWA (and ~1" for the MD eastern shore).

By late Tue night into Wed, the upper low will weaken into an open wave off to our NW. Additional rainfall is likely, but think the NBM PoPs are probably too high for Wed aftn. In general, expect a more scattered to numerous coverage of showers/storms rather than the widespread rain of Monday night-Tuesday. With that said, the cold pool aloft could help set off a few strong tstms Wed aftn/evening, though shear is fairly weak. Highs upper 70s to lower 80s Wed.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 330 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Still a chc for a few showers/storms Thursday, but the coverage will be lower than earlier in the week.

- Summerlike warmth and humidity Friday and Saturday, with diurnal tstms possible. Slightly cooler and with lower humidity by Sunday.

Building ridging upstream should allow for a pattern change toward warmer temperatures and more diurnally-driven showers storms Thu-Fri (closer to climo norms). With building heights aloft, and increasingly southerly flow, highs trend into the upper 80s/around 90F Fri-Sat. Dewpoints remain elevated, more typical of summer (upper 60s to lower 70s) which will lead to heat indices potentially into the mid-upper 90s. A front looks to approach from the west by later Saturday, with increasing rain chances Saturday afternoon and evening. Dry and still warm, but with lower humidity in the wake of the front Sunday.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 740 PM EDT Sunday...

VFR conditions prevail this evening across all terminals and VFR is expected to continue overnight. Generally S winds become light and variable tonight. MVFR CIGs quickly spread from west to east after 12z Monday. Showers also move in from the west Monday morning, potentially bringing MVFR VSBY. SBY is expected to remain VFR through the 00z TAF period. E-SE winds increase to around 10 kt by mid morning Monday.

Outlook: Flight restrictions are likely at all of the terminals other than SBY by Monday evening. A period of lower CIGs is expected Monday evening into early Tuesday, as a warm front lifts through the region. Periodic VSBY restrictions will be possible in heavier showers, along and W of I-95, possibly by late afternoon, but most places are more likely to experience the heavier showers late Monday night and Tuesday, with locally heavy showers possible again Wed aftn/evening. A lower coverage of showers Thu-Fri, with the timing mainly late aftn/evening if any storms do develop.

MARINE
As of 330 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Sub-Small Craft Advisory marine conditions through Monday.

- Widespread Small Craft Advisory conditions expected Tuesday and Tuesday night with elevated SE flow.

- Showers/storms could lead to locally increased winds and waves Tuesday through the end of the week.

Afternoon sfc analysis shows developing low pressure along the Gulf Coast, with high pressure near the area. A weak cold front extends from the Canadian Maritimes southwestward into the Mid-Atlantic, though it remains just N of the local waters as of this afternoon.
Generally light SSE flow prevails through tonight. Will note that a developing sea breeze this afternoon could lead to localized 10-15 kt wind speeds along the Atlantic coast and in the lower Chesapeake Bay. Otherwise, SE winds increase some to 10-15 kt across all waters on Monday as the pressure gradient begins to tighten with the low gradually approaching from the W.

Small Craft Advisory conditions likely develop by daybreak Tuesday as winds increase to around 20 kt over the bay and ocean. These winds likely persist through at least early Tuesday night. Regarding confidence, there is high confidence in meeting SCA criteria (local wind probs are 75-90% for >18 kt sustained winds and ~25 kt wind gusts). However, there is lower confidence in higher winds (25-30 kt), as depicted by some guidance, due to the still-rather stable marine boundary layer. Nonetheless, there is a window where wind gusts could reach 30 kt or slightly higher, with this most likely in the lower bay and southern coastal waters. With the increasing SE flow, am also expecting seas to build quickly to 4-5 ft Tuesday and up to 6-7 ft by Tuesday evening. In the bay, waves increase to 2-4 ft, with 5 ft probable at the mouth. Will hold off on headlines for one more period given some lingering timing uncertainties across the guidance, but they will likely need to be issued within the next 12- 24 hrs. Showers and storms could also produce locally higher winds and waves for all of Tuesday.

Winds slacken considerably for Wednesday and Thursday, but still remain out of the S-SE. Additional opportunities for mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms could lead to locally higher winds and waves Wednesday-Saturday afternoon/evenings.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.