Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for New Church, VA
December 3, 2023 9:54 PM EST (02:54 UTC)
Sunrise 7:00AM Sunset 4:43PM Moonrise 10:36PM Moonset 12:03PM
ANZ652 Coastal Waters From Chincoteague To Parramore Island Va Out 20 Nm- 651 Pm Est Sun Dec 3 2023
.dense fog advisory in effect until 10 pm est this evening...
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W after midnight, then becoming nw 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt late. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Dominant period 6 seconds. Patchy fog this evening. A slight chance of rain until early morning. Vsby 1 nm or less this evening.
Mon..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Mainly se swell. Dominant period 7 seconds.
Mon night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Dominant period 7 seconds.
Tue..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Dominant period 6 seconds.
Tue night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Mainly se swell. Dominant period 6 seconds. A chance of showers after midnight.
Wed..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft, building to 3 to 4 ft in the afternoon. A chance of showers.
Wed night..N winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Thu..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Thu night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
.dense fog advisory in effect until 10 pm est this evening...
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W after midnight, then becoming nw 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt late. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Dominant period 6 seconds. Patchy fog this evening. A slight chance of rain until early morning. Vsby 1 nm or less this evening.
Mon..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Mainly se swell. Dominant period 7 seconds.
Mon night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Dominant period 7 seconds.
Tue..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Dominant period 6 seconds.
Tue night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Mainly se swell. Dominant period 6 seconds. A chance of showers after midnight.
Wed..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft, building to 3 to 4 ft in the afternoon. A chance of showers.
Wed night..N winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Thu..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Thu night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
ANZ600 651 Pm Est Sun Dec 3 2023
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers..
a cold front pushes through the local waters tonight. High pressure then rebuilds over the area early this week with a second, stronger front crossing the area late Wednesday and Thursday.
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers..
a cold front pushes through the local waters tonight. High pressure then rebuilds over the area early this week with a second, stronger front crossing the area late Wednesday and Thursday.
Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
(on/off) HelpNOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS61 KAKQ 040019 AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 719 PM EST Sun Dec 3 2023
SYNOPSIS
Low pressure will move northeast of the area and into the northern mid Atlantic this evening. Dry weather is expected from tonight through Tuesday. An upper trough will swing into and across the area Tuesday night into Wednesday evening, then high pressure will build in for Wednesday night and Thursday.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
As of 645 PM EST Sunday...
Satellite imagery shows the clouds finally starting to break over the NW Piedmont with broken to overcast cloud cover remaining over the remainder of the area. Some fog/low stratus clouds continue for northern portions of the Ches Bay, extending NE into the MD Eastern Shore. Precip has largely come to an end but did maintain the chance PoPs across the SE third of the area with a slight chance PoP over the NE as moisture departs tonight. Temperatures have been slow to fall across the western parts of VA as the front is a bit slower than progged.
Have adjusted temps upward from the previous forecast to reflect this trend.
Skies become partly to mostly clear tonight as drying ensues.
No additional fog development is expected. Lows tonight will range from the upper 30s NW, to the upper 40s in far SE VA/NE NC.
SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
As of 305 PM EST Sunday...
A shortwave trough will approach from the W late Mon, before tracking over the local area Mon evening. Moisture will be limited, so expect just more clouds. A couple of the CAMs are forecasting isolated showers across western portions of the area, but will continue to leave this out of the forecast considering that it will be quite dry below 7-8kft AGL. Highs will still be above normal Mon, ranging from the mid 50s to lower 60s. Becoming mostly clear Mon night in the wake of the shortwave with lows ranging through the 30s. Dry/seasonable wx is expected on Tue, as high pressure builds across the region. Highs will be in the lower to mid 50s.
A deeper shortwave trough will approach from the NW Tue night, and cross the area during the day on Wednesday. The best rain chances will be to our W/NW Tue night, with a 20-30% PoP across much of the area (for showers) on Wed. The highest rain chances will across far SE VA/NE NC. In addition, it will become breezy with NW winds Wed aftn into Wed evening, as the pressure gradient tightens on the back side of low pressure deepening well offshore. Lows Tue night will range from the mid 30s to lower 40s. Mostly cloudy on Wed with highs in the mid-upper 40s in most areas with lower 50s in far srn VA/NE NC. Drying out (and colder) Wed night with diminishing winds inland as high pressure builds in from the west. Lows Wed night in the mid- upper 20s inland with lower-mid 30s near the immediate coast.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 305 PM EST Sunday...
High pressure will build over the region on Thursday before sliding off the Mid-Atlantic/SE Coast Thu night into Fri. The high will shift farther out to sea during the day on Sat. Dry wx should prevail through Sat. However, during the second half of the weekend, there is the potential for more widespread rain as a stronger low pressure system and cold front approach the area from the west.
Given that it is a week out, there is a lot of uncertainty regarding specifics. Highs Thu mainly in the mid 40s to around 50F. Lows Thu night in the lower to mid 30s in most areas. Increasingly milder from Fri through the weekend. Highs in the mid 50s to around 60F Fri, and in the upper 50s to mid 60s next weekend.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 645 PM EST Sunday...
Much improved flying weather across most of the area this evening but some IFR CIGs continue for SBY for the next few hours before becoming VFR later tonight. Will handle the transition with a tempo IFR and prevailing MVFR until 04z.
Elsewhere, terminals are VFR with BKN/OVC 20-25kft. Winds become westerly 5-10 kt behind the cold front tonight and WNW/NW on Monday.
Outlook: Mainly VFR conditions are expected Mon night through Tue. An upper level trough will bring clouds and maybe isolated to scattered showers Tue night into Wed evening. Flight restrictions are possible (mainly due to CIGs).
MARINE
As of 655 PM EST Sunday...
Warm front has finally pushed just N of the waters as of this afternoon. The upper Chesapeake Bay and the coastal waters N of Parramore Island are close enough to the front to still be dealing with some fog issues. Patchy dense fog is expected to linger over the new few hours. However, model guidance shows the potential for fog lingering until 6z (1 AM EST) but confidence is low, especially across the N coastal waters where winds ramp up around 6z behind a cold front. As such, Marine Dense Fog Advisory has been extended until 3z (10 PM EST) for these areas for now. Will reevaluate with the 10 PM update. Further S, SW winds are generally 10-15 kt. A few gusts to ~20 kt are possible over the next few hrs in Lower James, lower Bay, and offshore of VA Beach and OBX Currituck. A cold front will cross the region this evening, with winds turning WNW-NW. Despite the frontal passage, winds over the most of the area are expected to only be 5-10 kt. The one exception looks to be over the ocean N of Chincoteague (and especially out 20 NM) where 925 mb winds will be stronger. Hi- res guidance is trending upwards wrt to sfc winds here, with a period of 15-20 kt winds possible after ~06Z/1 AM Mon, lasting until just after sunrise. The highest probs for a brief period of SCA conditions are offshore of DE and NJ, so will not issue any products at this time. Weak high pressure settles over the area for Monday with light and variable winds. NW-NNW winds then increase to 15-20 kt (~10 kt over the Rivers and Currituck Sound) Mon night- Tues morning as rather strong pressure rises overspread the region from the W.
The most likely areas to see a brief period of SCA conditions would be the coastal waters N of Chincoteague and the nrn Bay, where local wind probs are generally 25-50%. Winds again turn light and variable for Tuesday. SCAs are very likely behind another cold front Wed aftn-Thurs morning w/ NW winds of 20-25 kt and gusts up to 30 kt. Uncertainty grows for the weekend with global models hinting at the potential for impactful marine conditions both ahead of and behind another system.
Seas this aftn are 2-3 ft with waves in the Bay 1-2 ft. Depending on winds tonight, seas could reach ~4 ft N of Chincoteague and out 10- 20 nm. Otherwise, 2-3 ft and 1-2 waves are expected to persist through early Wed. In the post-frontal regime Wed aftn-Thurs morning, seas increase to 3-6 ft (highest S of NC/VA border) with waves in the Bay increasing to 2-4 ft (1-2 ft in the Rivers). Seas then diminish to 2-4 ft to finish out the week. Waves will be 1-2 ft.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ630-650- 652.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 719 PM EST Sun Dec 3 2023
SYNOPSIS
Low pressure will move northeast of the area and into the northern mid Atlantic this evening. Dry weather is expected from tonight through Tuesday. An upper trough will swing into and across the area Tuesday night into Wednesday evening, then high pressure will build in for Wednesday night and Thursday.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
As of 645 PM EST Sunday...
Satellite imagery shows the clouds finally starting to break over the NW Piedmont with broken to overcast cloud cover remaining over the remainder of the area. Some fog/low stratus clouds continue for northern portions of the Ches Bay, extending NE into the MD Eastern Shore. Precip has largely come to an end but did maintain the chance PoPs across the SE third of the area with a slight chance PoP over the NE as moisture departs tonight. Temperatures have been slow to fall across the western parts of VA as the front is a bit slower than progged.
Have adjusted temps upward from the previous forecast to reflect this trend.
Skies become partly to mostly clear tonight as drying ensues.
No additional fog development is expected. Lows tonight will range from the upper 30s NW, to the upper 40s in far SE VA/NE NC.
SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
As of 305 PM EST Sunday...
A shortwave trough will approach from the W late Mon, before tracking over the local area Mon evening. Moisture will be limited, so expect just more clouds. A couple of the CAMs are forecasting isolated showers across western portions of the area, but will continue to leave this out of the forecast considering that it will be quite dry below 7-8kft AGL. Highs will still be above normal Mon, ranging from the mid 50s to lower 60s. Becoming mostly clear Mon night in the wake of the shortwave with lows ranging through the 30s. Dry/seasonable wx is expected on Tue, as high pressure builds across the region. Highs will be in the lower to mid 50s.
A deeper shortwave trough will approach from the NW Tue night, and cross the area during the day on Wednesday. The best rain chances will be to our W/NW Tue night, with a 20-30% PoP across much of the area (for showers) on Wed. The highest rain chances will across far SE VA/NE NC. In addition, it will become breezy with NW winds Wed aftn into Wed evening, as the pressure gradient tightens on the back side of low pressure deepening well offshore. Lows Tue night will range from the mid 30s to lower 40s. Mostly cloudy on Wed with highs in the mid-upper 40s in most areas with lower 50s in far srn VA/NE NC. Drying out (and colder) Wed night with diminishing winds inland as high pressure builds in from the west. Lows Wed night in the mid- upper 20s inland with lower-mid 30s near the immediate coast.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 305 PM EST Sunday...
High pressure will build over the region on Thursday before sliding off the Mid-Atlantic/SE Coast Thu night into Fri. The high will shift farther out to sea during the day on Sat. Dry wx should prevail through Sat. However, during the second half of the weekend, there is the potential for more widespread rain as a stronger low pressure system and cold front approach the area from the west.
Given that it is a week out, there is a lot of uncertainty regarding specifics. Highs Thu mainly in the mid 40s to around 50F. Lows Thu night in the lower to mid 30s in most areas. Increasingly milder from Fri through the weekend. Highs in the mid 50s to around 60F Fri, and in the upper 50s to mid 60s next weekend.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 645 PM EST Sunday...
Much improved flying weather across most of the area this evening but some IFR CIGs continue for SBY for the next few hours before becoming VFR later tonight. Will handle the transition with a tempo IFR and prevailing MVFR until 04z.
Elsewhere, terminals are VFR with BKN/OVC 20-25kft. Winds become westerly 5-10 kt behind the cold front tonight and WNW/NW on Monday.
Outlook: Mainly VFR conditions are expected Mon night through Tue. An upper level trough will bring clouds and maybe isolated to scattered showers Tue night into Wed evening. Flight restrictions are possible (mainly due to CIGs).
MARINE
As of 655 PM EST Sunday...
Warm front has finally pushed just N of the waters as of this afternoon. The upper Chesapeake Bay and the coastal waters N of Parramore Island are close enough to the front to still be dealing with some fog issues. Patchy dense fog is expected to linger over the new few hours. However, model guidance shows the potential for fog lingering until 6z (1 AM EST) but confidence is low, especially across the N coastal waters where winds ramp up around 6z behind a cold front. As such, Marine Dense Fog Advisory has been extended until 3z (10 PM EST) for these areas for now. Will reevaluate with the 10 PM update. Further S, SW winds are generally 10-15 kt. A few gusts to ~20 kt are possible over the next few hrs in Lower James, lower Bay, and offshore of VA Beach and OBX Currituck. A cold front will cross the region this evening, with winds turning WNW-NW. Despite the frontal passage, winds over the most of the area are expected to only be 5-10 kt. The one exception looks to be over the ocean N of Chincoteague (and especially out 20 NM) where 925 mb winds will be stronger. Hi- res guidance is trending upwards wrt to sfc winds here, with a period of 15-20 kt winds possible after ~06Z/1 AM Mon, lasting until just after sunrise. The highest probs for a brief period of SCA conditions are offshore of DE and NJ, so will not issue any products at this time. Weak high pressure settles over the area for Monday with light and variable winds. NW-NNW winds then increase to 15-20 kt (~10 kt over the Rivers and Currituck Sound) Mon night- Tues morning as rather strong pressure rises overspread the region from the W.
The most likely areas to see a brief period of SCA conditions would be the coastal waters N of Chincoteague and the nrn Bay, where local wind probs are generally 25-50%. Winds again turn light and variable for Tuesday. SCAs are very likely behind another cold front Wed aftn-Thurs morning w/ NW winds of 20-25 kt and gusts up to 30 kt. Uncertainty grows for the weekend with global models hinting at the potential for impactful marine conditions both ahead of and behind another system.
Seas this aftn are 2-3 ft with waves in the Bay 1-2 ft. Depending on winds tonight, seas could reach ~4 ft N of Chincoteague and out 10- 20 nm. Otherwise, 2-3 ft and 1-2 waves are expected to persist through early Wed. In the post-frontal regime Wed aftn-Thurs morning, seas increase to 3-6 ft (highest S of NC/VA border) with waves in the Bay increasing to 2-4 ft (1-2 ft in the Rivers). Seas then diminish to 2-4 ft to finish out the week. Waves will be 1-2 ft.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ630-650- 652.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| 44089 | 21 mi | 58 min | 54°F | 3 ft | ||||
| WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA | 26 mi | 54 min | W 5.1G | |||||
| BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD | 29 mi | 54 min | N 1.9G | |||||
| OCIM2 - 8570283 - Ocean City Inlet, MD | 36 mi | 54 min | NNW 8G | |||||
| RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA | 38 mi | 54 min | SW 8.9G | |||||
| 44042 - Potomac, MD | 39 mi | 48 min | NE 7.8G | 51°F | 51°F | 0 ft | ||
| 44058 - Stingray Point, VA | 45 mi | 48 min | 59°F | 51°F | ||||
| LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA | 46 mi | 54 min | N 5.1G | |||||
| 44084 | 48 mi | 58 min | 52°F | 3 ft | ||||
| CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD | 48 mi | 54 min | W 1.9G |
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (on/off) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KWAL WALLOPS FLIGHT FACILITY,VA | 7 sm | 27 min | W 06 | 3/4 sm | Overcast | Mist | 57°F | 57°F | 100% | 29.72 |
| KMFV ACCOMACK COUNTY,VA | 24 sm | 19 min | WSW 08 | 10 sm | Partly Cloudy | 63°F | 59°F | 88% | 29.73 | |
| KTGI TANGIER ISLAND,VA | 24 sm | 19 min | SW 13 | 10 sm | Clear | 57°F | 57°F | 100% | 29.72 |
Wind History from WAL
(wind in knots)Tide / Current for Shelltown, Pocomoke River, Chesapeake Bay, Maryland
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Shelltown
Click for Map
Sun -- 04:25 AM EST 1.99 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:01 AM EST Sunrise
Sun -- 11:00 AM EST 0.43 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 12:03 PM EST Moonset
Sun -- 04:42 PM EST 2.32 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:43 PM EST Sunset
Sun -- 10:36 PM EST Moonrise
Sun -- 11:55 PM EST 0.41 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Sun -- 04:25 AM EST 1.99 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:01 AM EST Sunrise
Sun -- 11:00 AM EST 0.43 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 12:03 PM EST Moonset
Sun -- 04:42 PM EST 2.32 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:43 PM EST Sunset
Sun -- 10:36 PM EST Moonrise
Sun -- 11:55 PM EST 0.41 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Shelltown, Pocomoke River, Chesapeake Bay, Maryland, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.5 |
| 1 am |
| 0.8 |
| 2 am |
| 1.3 |
| 3 am |
| 1.7 |
| 4 am |
| 2 |
| 5 am |
| 2 |
| 6 am |
| 1.8 |
| 7 am |
| 1.5 |
| 8 am |
| 1.1 |
| 9 am |
| 0.8 |
| 10 am |
| 0.5 |
| 11 am |
| 0.4 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 2 pm |
| 1.5 |
| 3 pm |
| 1.9 |
| 4 pm |
| 2.3 |
| 5 pm |
| 2.3 |
| 6 pm |
| 2.2 |
| 7 pm |
| 1.9 |
| 8 pm |
| 1.5 |
| 9 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.5 |
Pocomoke City
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:09 AM EST 0.29 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:42 AM EST 1.36 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:01 AM EST Sunrise
Sun -- 12:03 PM EST Moonset
Sun -- 12:59 PM EST 0.35 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:42 PM EST Sunset
Sun -- 06:59 PM EST 1.58 feet High Tide
Sun -- 10:35 PM EST Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:09 AM EST 0.29 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:42 AM EST 1.36 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:01 AM EST Sunrise
Sun -- 12:03 PM EST Moonset
Sun -- 12:59 PM EST 0.35 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:42 PM EST Sunset
Sun -- 06:59 PM EST 1.58 feet High Tide
Sun -- 10:35 PM EST Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Pocomoke City, Pocomoke River, Chesapeake Bay, Maryland, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.4 |
| 1 am |
| 0.3 |
| 2 am |
| 0.3 |
| 3 am |
| 0.6 |
| 4 am |
| 0.9 |
| 5 am |
| 1.1 |
| 6 am |
| 1.3 |
| 7 am |
| 1.4 |
| 8 am |
| 1.3 |
| 9 am |
| 1.1 |
| 10 am |
| 0.8 |
| 11 am |
| 0.6 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 4 pm |
| 1 |
| 5 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 6 pm |
| 1.5 |
| 7 pm |
| 1.6 |
| 8 pm |
| 1.5 |
| 9 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 10 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.8 |
Dover AFB, DE,
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