Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for New Church, VA

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 220 AM EST Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Breezy conditions will continue today, especially near the coast.

- Cold conditions are expected tonight with widespread teens for lows. Winds diminish, so wind chills will not be much lower than actual air temperatures.

The Arctic front is now just south of the area with gusty N-NW winds (to 25-30 mph). However, temps are a still in the upper 20s to mid 30s (locally mid 20s on the MD Eastern Shore). Still think temps drop into the lower-mid 20s by sunrise, with wind chills dropping to 5-10F on the eastern shore (and 10-15F+ elsewhere). Therefore, will maintain the Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM for most of the eastern shore. Otherwise, it will be sunny, cold, and breezy today (especially near the coast) with gusts up to 25-30 mph expected through the day. Forecast highs are only in the mid to upper 30s (lower 30s on the MD Eastern Shore). High pressure currently centered near the mid Mississippi River Valley builds over the area tonight, allowing winds to become light or calm. Under clear skies, temperatures will plummet into the teens to low 20s tonight given ideal radiational cooling conditions. Luckily with winds slackening, not expecting us to reach Cold Weather Advisory criteria as wind chills will pretty much be the same as our actual air temperatures.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 220 AM EST Wednesday...

Key Message:

- Temperatures begin to moderate some on Thursday and Friday.

A clipper system is progged to track to our north on Thursday as high pressure becomes suppressed to the southeast of the FA. While winds will become light out of the SSW, cloud cover will increase throughout the day as that system tracks across the northern Mid- Atlantic. As a result, it will still be cool with highs in the lower- mid 40s near/south of I-64 and only in the upper 30s N. The system moves offshore Thursday night while dragging a weaker cold front through the area. This will lead to clearing skies and lows in the 20s
Not expecting any measurable precip Thu/Thu night
but cannot rule out a flurry or two on the MD Eastern Shore Thu aftn/evening.
Cool/dry wx is expected on Friday as high pressure returns to the area. Forecast highs are in the lower-mid 40s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 350 AM EST Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Temperatures moderate this weekend ahead of a cold front.

- Rain chances increase this weekend with a chance of rain becoming snow Monday.

- Behind a cold front this weekend, much colder weather arrives early next week with highs struggling to reach above freezing.

With high pressure offshore, low pressure stemming from the Gulf Coast will move eastward along with a stronger northern low over Canada bringing seasonable temps and rain chcs for the weekend.
Ahead of the first cold front associated with the low, Sat temps will warm up to the mid to upper 40s for most of the FA (SE VA/NE NC in the lower 50s). Weaker CAA from the first front will allow Sun highs to be similar to Sat. Sun highs will be slightly cooler in the lower 40s towards the piedmont and Eastern Shore and mid to upper 40s elsewhere. Behind the second stronger cold front, strong Arctic airmass will dominate the majority of the US. This strong cold air will cause highs to struggle to reach more than the 30s Mon with highs below freezing on Tues and Wed (highs Wed in SE VA/NE NC will slightly reach above freezing).

The cold front on Sat will bring the next chc for measurable rain. Both the GFS and ECMWF models continue to hint towards a low pressure system forming off the Carolina coast, moving up the coastline on Sun. With the colder airmass, a chc of mixed wintry precip is possible on Sun night, transitioning to snow early Mon. Models have increased in probs of snow with the GEFS 00z/15 run showing a 50-60% chc of 1" of snow, while the ECMWF ensemble only has about 10-20% for 1". Have capped PoPs to chc for any precip at this time. With this uncertainty between models, confidence is low and trends will continued being monitored.

Another system is possible to bring wintry precip mid next week. Latest ECMWF ensemble model has about a 20-30% chc of snow for this time frame with about a fifth of members hinting towards high snowfall amounts. With this event still days away, we are monitoring the trends and continue to fine tune the forecast.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 640 AM EST Wednesday...

A strong cold front has moved south of the area this morning.
Skies have cleared and am expecting the clear skies to continue for the remainder of the 12z/15 TAF period. WNW-NW winds will remain gusty (to 25 kt) today before diminishing tonight as high pressure settles near the area.

Outlook: VFR from tonight-Fri. Mainly clear tonight, with increasing mid to high level clouds on Thursday as a clipper system passes by to our north. Skies clear out Thu night-Fri. Lighter winds are also expected on Thu/Fri. A low pressure system will likely bring rain to the terminals from Sat-Sat night, along with a period of sub-VFR conditions.

MARINE
As of 640 AM EST Wednesday...

- Gale Warnings have been replaced with Small Craft Advisories for all waters, although occasional gusts to 35 kt remain possible through 9 AM. There also remains some concern for light freezing spray.

- Quieter marine conditions expected tonight and Thursday.

- Marginal SCAs possible Thursday night and Friday morning.

Gale Warnings have been replaced with SCAs for the bay and ocean...as winds have diminished by a few knots. However, occasional gusts to 35 kt remain possible through around 9 AM or so, especially across the lower Ches Bay and ocean.

Previous Discussion as of 250 AM...

Morning analysis shows a strong cold front now just S of the area.
After a quiet evening, NW/NNW winds have increased markedly in the wake of the front as strong cold advection pushes over the waters.
Current obs show winds generally 20-30 kt with gusts 30-35 kt. A few gusts to 40 kt have been observed at elevated sites in the Chesapeake Bay. Seas have been slow to respond and remain 3-4 ft for most our ocean area, except 5-6 ft offshore of the MD waters. Seas should build to 4-6 ft areawide over the next few hours, with waves in the bay 3-5 ft. Similar conditions are expected through this morning and Gale Warnings are in effect until 12z/7 AM for the bay and ocean. It is possible the gale warnings could be cancelled an hour or two early based on latest model data but will reevaluate this potential in a few hours. Gales will need to be replaced with SCAs once the gales drop off...likely through most of this afternoon. Elsewhere on the rivers and Currituck Sound, SCAs continue through 18z/1 PM. Light freezing spray remains possible through this morning as well.

Conditions quickly become quieter later this evening and especially tonight, with westerly winds 5-10 kt and seas/waves 2-3 ft or less.
Sub-SCA winds/seas continue through most of Thursday as winds briefly turn to the SW ahead of another weaker front. W-WNW winds Thursday night look to increase to 15-20 kt and marginal/short duration SCAs are possible on the bay and ocean. A stronger front is expected by Sat and SW winds increase ahead of it, followed by NNW winds increasing later Sunday into next Monday.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for MDZ021>025.
NC...None.
VA...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for VAZ099.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ630.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ631>634-638.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ635>637.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ650- 652-654-656-658.