Tuesday, September29, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Sanford, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:55AMSunset 6:49PM Tuesday September 29, 2020 10:05 PM EDT (02:05 UTC) Moonrise 5:14PMMoonset 3:36AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ543 Tangier Sound And The Inland Waters Surrounding Bloodsworth Island- 738 Pm Edt Tue Sep 29 2020
.small craft advisory in effect through Wednesday afternoon...
Tonight..S winds 15 kt...becoming W after midnight. Gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 2 ft. Showers with a slight chance of tstms.
Wed..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Thu..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the morning. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Thu night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming N after midnight. Gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Fri..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Fri night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers through the night. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 738 Pm Edt Tue Sep 29 2020
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A cold front will slowly pass through the waters throught this evening as a wave of low pressure tracks along it. High pressure will build to the south for Wednesday before a reinforcing cold front passes through Thursday into Thursday night. Canadian high pressure will build overhead for Friday and Saturday. A small craft advisories may be required Wednesday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sanford, VA
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location: 37.98, -75.63     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 292335 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 735 PM EDT Tue Sep 29 2020

SYNOPSIS. A cold front crosses the area tonight. Drier conditions return by Wednesday and Thursday. Another cold front crosses the area Thursday night into Friday, with cool and dry conditions expected for the first part of the weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/. As of 730 PM EDT Tuesday .

Front and assctd line of convection crossing the Piedmont and will cross the 95 corridor over the next 1-3 hrs, then head towards the coast by midnight. Nothing severe reported thru this writing. CAMS cont to show a broken line of convective elements as they move east. Data also showing the front picking up speed towards the coast by midnite as well. Decent area of rain progged behind it for a few hrs before tapering off to some ligt shwrs across the west after midnite. Locally hvy downpours and some minor flooding issues are still possible. Lows in the lwr 50s nw to lwr 60s se.

PVS DSCN: Late afternoon wx analysis reveals a deep upper trough stretching from the Hudson bay south to the Gulf Coast that continues to propagate to the east. There is a well-defined shortwave moving ENE toward the OH Valley. Sfc low pressure is centered over Ontario, with a cold front extending to the piedmont of VA/NC (west of the CWA) and all the way down to the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. A secondary area of low pressure is starting to develop from south- central VA to nrn SC (to our SW). The main swath of pcpn associated with the front is still a few counties west of the CWA but is progged to reach the wrn CWA border by 6 PM. Scattered to numerous showers (w/ isolated lightning strikes) continue across ern VA, NE NC, and the Lower Ern Shore. These showers over ern portions of the CWA will likely continue for the next few hours, but may diminish some before the main area of pcpn (associated w/ the cold front) approaches. There have been localized reports of 1-2" of rain across ern VA/NE NC today, but areal average amounts have been closer to 0.5".

The aforementioned secondary low becomes the main sfc low which will pass across the local area from this evening (W of I-95) to the coast (later this evening/overnight). This period will be when the best combination of stronger lift and deeper moisture affects the region with a more widespread heavy rainfall. The aforementioned cold front is expected to enter far wrn portions of the area by ~6 PM, and will quickly move to the east (likely moving offshore of the CWA by 2-3 AM). In addition, SPC has expanded the marginal risk of severe wx to include all of the CWA (except the far NE). Still think that the best chc of severe wx will be across SE VA/NE NC, where a south-southwesterly low level (950-850 mb) jet expected to increase to 40-50 kt by mid-late evening. Any of the storms along/just ahead of the front will be capable of producing isolated strong (but mainly sub-severe) wind gusts that will likely result in a few downed trees (especially given the wet antecedent conditions). There is also a minimal (but nonzero) tornado risk given strong shear and potentially some local backing of the low level wind fields given the sfc low development over the interior Carolinas. The most likely spot for a brief, spin-up tornado to occur is in SE VA/NE NC. The severe wx threat will end after the front crosses the area.

PoPs will increase to 90-100% all zones at some point from 22z through 03z (from W to E), aided by strong lift from an impressive ~160-180 kt upper-level jet streak to our NNW (on the E side of the trough). Our area will be situated in the RRQ of the aforementioned jet streak (which is one of the regions favorable for large-scale ascent) during this timeframe. Given PWAT values in excess of 1.75" in most areas along with a nearly unidirectional S flow there will be training storms and the threat for flooding. At this point, the more progressive nature of the system as a whole will lead to additional QPF amounts that will avg 1 to 2" across the area rather than the 3-4" the models suggested 36-48 hrs ago. Generally, the highest QPF is in the E/SE, but localized amounts in excess of 2" will possible just about anywhere in the CWA. There will likely be some urban/poor drainage flooding this evening-tonight (especially across SE VA/NE NC). A few instances of flash flooding cannot be ruled out, but am not expecting the flash flood threat to be widespread enough to warrant a watch. PoPs rapidly diminish after 5- 6 AM with just slight chc-chc PoPs near the coast by 12z Wed.

SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/. As of 350 PM EDT Tuesday .

High pressure builds over the Gulf coast states on Wed in the wake of the front, and the flow at the sfc becomes more WSW. This will lead to clearing skies/dry conditions. Will continue to go a couple of degrees higher than the blends for highs Wed given sunny skies/decent WSW flow. Expect mainly dry wx, cooler conditions, and lower humidity to continue through much of Thu before a secondary cold front crosses the area late Thu-Thu night. Aloft, a shortwave trough will approach the area late Thu and track near or just N of the area on Fri. There is a low (15-30%) chc of showers across mainly the nrn two-thirds of the area Thu aftn/spreading E Thu night as the secondary front approaches. 15-30% PoPs for showers continue through 18z Fri before pcpn chances end by evening (as the shortwave trough exits the area).

Forecast highs on Wed are generally in the low to mid 70s. Low temps Wednesday night will range from near 50F NW to the upper 50s close to the coast. Highs Thu in the upper 70s SE to the lower-mid 70s NW. Lows Thu night range from near 50F NW to around 60F SE. Cooler behind the front on Fri with highs mainly in the mid 60s-around 70F.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/. As of 350 PM EDT Tuesday .

A broad trough aloft will be dominant from ern Canada to the ern CONUS through the medium range period . resulting in mainly dry and cool wx through at least the weekend. High pressure builds toward the local area Fri night . allowing for mainly clear/cool conditions with lows in the 40s over much of the local area, with 50s along the coast. The high is progged to settle over the region on Sat with mainly sunny skies and cool temperatures with highs of 65-70F. Continued cool Sat night with lows in the 40s over much of the interior again, with 50s at the coast.

Models diverge in their solutions for the latter part of the medium range period (late Sun-Tue). The models remain in agreement with respect to persistent ridging off the SE CONUS coast. However, there are notable disagreements with respect to the evolution of of a sharpening upstream shortwave trough that is progged to track from the central CONUS eastward to the Mid-Atlantic region from Sunday- early next week. The GFS is faster and more progressive with the shortwave and forecasts it to remain an open wave (w/ limited moisture) as it crosses the local area on Mon. The ECMWF forms it into an upper low near the MS River Valley Sun night and tracks it ENE into the OH Valley by Mon PM before finally tracking directly to our N Monday night. The ECMWF also has a stronger surface low nearby on Mon/Mon night as well, with much more in the way of moisture/rain in the area than the GFS. Regardless, Sun will likely remain dry (except across SE VA/NE NC late in the day). For now, will have slight chc-chc PoPs from Sun night-Mon night to account for the uncertainty. Will still not go anywhere near as wet as the ECMWF at this point, but will continue to monitor model trends in the coming days. Highs Sun/Mon mainly in the upper 60s-low 70s, with overnight lows generally in the 50s (w/ upper 40s NW).

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. As of 730 PM EDT Tuesday .

Cold front and assctd line of convection now moving east across the Piedmont and should apprch RIC by 01Z. Shwrs were sct out ahead of it in the warm/humid airmass with little if any thunder. CIGS mainly VFR along the coast with IFR/MVFR well inland. Expect CIGS to quickly lower (IFR most areas by midnite) once the front and pcpn arrive over the next svrl hrs. Only place thunder was added was RIC (per current radar trends). VSBYS will also lower to IFR in any hvy downpours and areas of rain behing the bndry.

The front is progged to clr the coast by morning with rapid clearing behind it. Look for CIGS to quickly improve to VFR Wed morning. Outlook.. VFR conditions through Thu. Another front crosses the area Thu night-Fri AM (bringing a low chc of SHRAs). Dry/VFR Fri evening through Sunday AM.

MARINE. As of 350 PM EDT Tuesday .

A strong cold front is approaching from the west this aftn, with an area of low pressure developing along the boundary. The wind is S 10-15kt this aftn, with seas of 3-4ft. The pressure gradient tightens late this aftn into early evening as the cold front continues to approach from the W and as the low tracks NNE along the boundary. The wind is expected to become SSE 15-25kt, with a few gusts to ~30kt over the ocean. The cold front is expected to cross the coast late this evening into the early overnight hours. The wind is expected to shift to NW 15-25kt with a surge immediately behind the front. The wind may actually diminish for a few hours, then become WNW 15-20kt around sunrise Wednesday. Seas build to 4-5ft S to 5-7ft N tonight, with 2-3ft waves in the Bay. High pressure builds across the Southeast Wednesday and the wind will diminish to 10-15kt and gradually become WSW. Seas subside to 2-3ft S by aftn, and mainly 3-4ft N, with some seas lingering ~5ft out near 20nm. SCAs for the Bay run through 10am Wednesday, through 7am Wednesday for the Sound, and ending from S to N for the ocean later Wednesday morning through early evening. The rivers are generally expected to have sub-SCA conditions, with the exception of a brief period of a NW wind of 15-20kt immediately behind the front.

High pressure slides off the Southeast coast Wednesday night and Thursday with the wind becoming SW 10-15kt Wednesday night into Thursday morning, then light and sea-breeze dominated for a period of time Thursday aftn. Another cold front approaches from the W Thursday evening, and slides across the coast Thursday night. The wind wind is forecast to become NNW 15-20kt late Thursday night into Friday morning, with SCA conditions likely for at least the Bay. High pressure builds into the region Saturday and Sunday.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. As of 350 PM EDT Tuesday .

A SSE wind will likely result in a modest surge through the the middle of the Bay this evening, and then a wind shift to NW will push this water toward the Bay-side of the MD Ern Shore during high tide from around midnight tonight into the overnight hours. Water levels will approach minor flood levels and a Coastal Flood Statement has been issued.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . None. NC . None. VA . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ630>632- 634-656-658. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ654. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ650-652.

SYNOPSIS . ERI NEAR TERM . ERI/MPR SHORT TERM . ERI/LKB LONG TERM . ERI/LKB AVIATION . MPR MARINE . AJZ TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . AJZ


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44089 22 mi40 min 71°F6 ft
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 26 mi48 min S 17 G 21 73°F 74°F1005.1 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 27 mi48 min S 15 G 18 73°F 73°F1004.5 hPa
OCIM2 - 8570283 - Ocean City Inlet, MD 37 mi48 min S 15 G 22
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 37 mi48 min SSE 20 G 23 1005.3 hPa
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 44 mi24 min S 19 G 21 73°F 71°F1006.9 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 44 mi48 min SSW 8 G 8.9 74°F 70°F1004.5 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 47 mi48 min SSE 8.9 G 12 72°F 70°F1004.5 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 49 mi48 min S 9.9 G 11

Wind History for Bishops Head, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wallops Flight Facility Airport, VA9 mi12 minS 17 G 2410.00 miOvercast73°F72°F96%1005.2 hPa
Melfa / Accomack Airport, VA24 mi31 minS 13 G 2210.00 miOvercast73°F70°F89%1005.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KWAL

Wind History from WAL (wind in knots)
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1 day agoS9S6S8S7S3SW6SW5SW3S4SW8SW7W8SW7S7S10S14S11S13S14S12S12S9S9S10
2 days agoN4N3CalmNE6N3CalmN3N4N4N5N3NE4NE5E4CalmS3SE5SE10SE7SE5CalmCalmSW3S6

Tide / Current Tables for Shelltown, Pocomoke River, Chesapeake Bay, Maryland
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Shelltown
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:35 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:28 AM EDT     0.39 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:56 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:56 AM EDT     2.71 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:13 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:39 PM EDT     0.41 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:47 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.82.62.21.61.10.70.40.40.81.42.12.52.72.62.21.71.20.80.50.40.71.322.6

Tide / Current Tables for Pocomoke City, Pocomoke River, Chesapeake Bay, Maryland
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Pocomoke City
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:50 AM EDT     1.93 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:35 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:56 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:27 AM EDT     0.32 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:13 PM EDT     1.84 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:13 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:47 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:38 PM EDT     0.34 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.61.91.91.81.61.20.80.50.30.40.611.41.71.81.81.61.30.90.60.40.40.50.9

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.