Thursday, July9, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Crisfield, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:45AMSunset 8:29PM Thursday July 9, 2020 7:28 AM EDT (11:28 UTC) Moonrise 10:42PMMoonset 9:06AM Illumination 84% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ543 Tangier Sound And The Inland Waters Surrounding Bloodsworth Island- 655 Am Edt Thu Jul 9 2020
.small craft advisory in effect from 6 pm edt this evening through Friday afternoon...
Today..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft. Isolated showers this morning, then scattered showers with isolated tstms this afternoon.
Tonight..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 2 ft. Showers likely. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Fri..N winds 15 to 20 kt. Gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 2 ft. Showers likely. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Fri night..W winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat..SW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.
Sat night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of tstms. A chance of showers. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 655 Am Edt Thu Jul 9 2020
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. Low pressure along the north carolina coast will lift northward through tonight, moving near or just east of the delmarva peninsula on Friday, lifting to our northeast Friday night. A cold front is poised to encroach on the waters late Saturday into Sunday, lingering nearby into early next week. Gale force wind gusts may be possible over portions of the waters early Friday morning, potentially requiring the need for a gale warning during this time.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Crisfield, MD
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location: 37.98, -75.86     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 091038 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 638 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2020

SYNOPSIS. Low pressure moves slowly northeast along the North Carolina coast today and tonight before lifting northeast along the Mid Atlantic coast Friday and Saturday. A frontal boundary will linger along the coast through the weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. As of 640 AM EDT Thursday .

Latest MSAS shows weak high pressue over the Va Piedmont with low pressure just east of MHX. The system seems to be getting better organized as the sat loop is showing cooling cloud tops and sct convection out over the Gulf Stream this morning. NHC conts to monitor for potential tropical development over the next 24 hrs.

Models and current data suggests this systms track is just off the NC coast thru 21Z, then slowly turning it nnw and moving it towards HAT by 00Z. This slower track will result in some significant changes to the grids today. Main change was to lower PoPs across the board this morning, then bring likely PoPs into sern VA/nern NC this aftrn. Chc PoPs elsewhere with only a 20-30 PoP along and west of I95 and lwr Md ern shore as the weak high slowly gives way to the storms moisture fields. Thunder was cut back as well, basically limited to the aftrn given modest instability in the tropical airmass. Depending on radar trends this morning, will have to monitor for possible waterspouts in the outer most bands of the systm as they apprch the nrn OB/sern Va.

QPF was also cut back thru 00z, with amts btwn 1/2 to 3/4 inch limited to far sern VA/nern NC zones. A flash flood watch was considered starting today, but given the uncertainity and changing trends, decided to hold off on any watch and let the day shift evaluate the need for one later today.

Otw, Pt sunny skies become mstly cldy. Highs low-mid 80s east, btwn 85-90 west where there will be more sun and less pcpn.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/. As of 400 AM EDT Thursday .

Models in decent agreement tracking the systm near or along the nrn OB this eve, just east of Va Beach late tonite then hugging the Delmarva coastline Fri morning before pushing north into NJ Fri aftrn. Data also suggests the greatest wind affects will be over the waters, but moisture fields (highest PW's) show a signifcant surge of tropical moisture accompanying the systm as it tracks north tonite and Fri. There will also be a sharp pcpn gradient west of the Ches Bay. Thus, PoPs will be highest tonite and Fri along the coast with chc PoPs to the west. QPF is anthr challenge and will likely determine where a ff watch will be needed. Best guess attm will be along the ern shore where a general 2-3 inch rainfall is expected with amts up to 4 inches from SBY-OXB. 1 to 1.5 inches over the Ches Bay and sern Va/nern NC with much less amts to the west. Lows tonite upr 60s-lwr 70s. Skies will likely become pt sunny Fri as the systm moves ne pulling in drier air on gusty NW winds. Highs mid 80s along the ern shore, upr 80s-lwr 90s west of the Ches Bay.

The system continues to track NE of the local area Fri night and Sat. However, lingering moisture along a lagging trof keeps the chc for sct convection going. Lows Fri nite in the low-mid 70s. Highs Sat in the upr 80s-lwr 90s. HI values Sat in the upr 90s-lwr 100s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. As of 315 PM EDT Wednesday .

Overall the operational models are in decent agreement with a Eastern US Trough being the dominant weather feature in the extended period, but the strength of the trough differs. The GFS is sharpest and deepest during the period while the ECMWF is quicker to begin lifting the trough out toward the end of the period. For now have blended between the two with having more convective activity early in the period on Sunday and Monday with a stronger trough and an associated sfc cold front moving into the area. Then begin to lessen the chances for convection by mid week as the surface front dissipates and the Bermuda High starts to rebuild into the SE US. The pops are mainly diurnal with the best chances for pcpn late in the afternoon into the early evening. For temperatures have kept readings in the low 90s through the period, but should the trough deepen a little more on Sunday into Monday, would not be surprised to see temperatures held down just a touch into the upper 80s for early in the week. But overall should not be far from normal with highs in the lower 90s and lows in the low to mid 70s.

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. As of 640 AM EDT Thursday .

Sct shwrs in advance of the coastal low will move nnw across the sern TAF sites this morning. More widespread shwr actvity will overspread the coastal TAF sites later this aftrn and eve then spread north along the ern shore tonite. NNE winds arnd 10 kts become E and increase along the coast to btwn 15-25 kts tonite as the systm tracks north along the coast. CIGS/VSBYS will vary in any shwr with pockets of hvy rain along the coast tonite. Appears that RIC will be to far west to see many affects from this systm.

OUTLOOK . Degraded flight conditions continue through Friday morning with slowly improving conditions later in the day as the systm moves farther to the north. Conditions generally improve over the weekend, although afternoon/evening showers and storms may result in brief flight restrictions.

MARINE. As of 430 AM EDT Thursday .

An are of low pressure has emerged off the NC overnight, south of Cape Hatteras, and is becoming better organized. The NHC has given a 80% chance developing into a tropical depression today as the low tracks north towards our area. SCAs have been issues for most of the area coastal waters through Friday afternoon as the low tracks along the Carolina and Mid-Atlantic coasts.

Conditions this morning are fairly benign, especially north of the VA/NC border. Winds are E 5-10 kt with the low pressure centered well south of the area. Winds will quickly increase throughout the morning for the southern portion of the area. Easterly winds are expected to be around 20 kt, with gusts near 25 kt by mid morning today for areas south of Cape Charles and the southern portion of the Chesapeake Bay and lower James River. The center of low pressure will be north of Cape Hatteras by this evening and winds will be increase across area waters. Winds are expected to be NE 20-25 kt. with gusts up to 30 kt for the southern Chesapeake Bay and VA/NC Atlantic coastal waters by this evening. Seas will be increasing to 5- 7 ft, and waves in the Chesapeake Bay and James River will be 2-4 ft (4-5 ft near the CBBT).

The center of the low pressure will be track north along the VA coast tonight. At this time, the track of the low appears to remain just off our coast. Therefore, winds will become NE then N 15-20 with gusts up to 30 kt as the low passes just to the east. This may change with any shift in the track.

Winds will become W to NW as the low pressure tracks north towards the NJ coast Friday. Winds will be decreasing from south to north during the day on Friday with SCA condition continuing into Friday afternoon.

For the weekend, winds will be SW 10-15 with gusts up to 20 kt and the chance for afternoon thunderstorms.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. Nuisance to minor coastal flooding is possible around high tide cycles on Thursday and Friday. Water level rises of around 1 ft above normal tide possible.

High risk of rip currents on Thursday for Virginia Beach and NE NC beaches. Moderate risk of rip currents for the MD/VA eastern shore.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . None. NC . None. VA . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 1 PM EDT Friday for ANZ632-634-656-658. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 4 PM EDT Friday for ANZ630-631. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EDT Friday for ANZ638. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 4 PM EDT Friday for ANZ650-652-654.

SYNOPSIS . MPR NEAR TERM . MPR SHORT TERM . MPR LONG TERM . ESS AVIATION . MPR MARINE . CP TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . AKQ


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 19 mi58 min ESE 8 G 9.9 77°F 83°F1014 hPa
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 27 mi58 min ENE 8.9 G 11 79°F 85°F1013.7 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 32 mi58 min ESE 9.9 G 11 79°F 81°F1013.9 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 32 mi58 min ENE 12 G 13 1014 hPa
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 35 mi40 min ENE 12 G 12 82°F1017.1 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 37 mi58 min E 7 G 8
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 39 mi58 min E 8 G 9.9 78°F 81°F1014 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 43 mi58 min E 6 G 8.9 75°F 83°F1014.7 hPa
OCIM2 - 8570283 - Ocean City Inlet, MD 47 mi58 min ESE 2.9 G 5.1 76°F 74°F1015.3 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 49 mi40 min ESE 7.8 G 7.8 77°F 82°F

Wind History for Bishops Head, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wallops Flight Facility Airport, VA21 mi94 minE 810.00 miMostly Cloudy77°F75°F96%1013.9 hPa
Melfa / Accomack Airport, VA23 mi33 minNE 310.00 miFair76°F6°F7%1013.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KWAL

Wind History from WAL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE4SE5SE7SE8SE9E7SE10SE10SE10SE9SE9SE8E6E7E5E6E7E5SE4E5E4E4E8E6
1 day agoS5S7S7S10S7W5S9S10S12S10S10S9S6S8S5S5S6S5--S3S3SE3S3Calm
2 days agoSW7SW6--S13S12S13S14S15S16S14S14S14S12S9S10S8N9N7E7N8
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Tide / Current Tables for Crisfield, Little Annemessex River, Chesapeake Bay, Maryland
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Crisfield
Click for Map
Thu -- 04:30 AM EDT     2.15 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:49 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:06 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 11:03 AM EDT     0.08 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:58 PM EDT     1.94 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:27 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:12 PM EDT     0.22 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:41 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.40.91.41.92.12.11.91.510.60.20.10.20.511.51.81.91.81.51.10.70.40.2

Tide / Current Tables for Long Point, Big Annemessex River, Chesapeake Bay, Maryland
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Long Point
Click for Map
Thu -- 04:59 AM EDT     2.26 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:48 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:06 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 11:44 AM EDT     0.08 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:27 PM EDT     2.04 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:27 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:41 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 11:53 PM EDT     0.22 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.20.61.21.72.12.32.11.81.40.90.40.10.10.30.81.31.8221.81.410.60.3

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.