Shepherdsville, KY Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Shepherdsville, KY

April 14, 2024 10:14 PM EDT (02:14 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 7:06 AM   Sunset 8:19 PM
Moonrise 10:24 AM   Moonset 1:22 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Shepherdsville, KY
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Area Discussion for - Louisville, KY
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FXUS63 KLMK 150123 AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 923 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

KEY MESSAGES

* Isolated strong storms will be possible Monday afternoon.
Locally gusty winds and brief hail would be the main threats.

* Showers and thunderstorms are likely Tuesday night through Wednesday night. Multiple waves of strong storms are possible, with the greatest severe threat expected Wednesday afternoon and evening.

* Significant cool-down appears increasingly likely next weekend.

UPDATE
Issued at 922 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Current forecast remains on track with clouds developing over the region during the night and low temperatures only falling into the low 60s. As the front sinks south and the region heats, showers and storms will be possible in the afternoon and evening. Strong storm potential is conditional on the amount of heating. If clouds that develop overnight are dense and do not scattered out in the morning, this would limit instability. If clouds do scatter out, and the region sees ample day time heating, strong storms could lead to gusty winds and hail.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
Issued at 335 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Tonight should be several degrees warmer than last night with a light but steady southwest breeze given our position between high pressure over Florida and a cold front draped from New England through central Indiana to Colorado. Models show a significant increase in 925-850mb RH, resulting in SCT/BKN cloud development after midnight, especially east of Interstate 65...which will also act to keep temperatures up. Low temperatures tonight should generally be in the upper 50s and lower 60s...about 15 degrees above normal.

On Monday the front to our north will slip slightly further southward, to around the Ohio River. There's not a lot of upper support with this system, with 500mb winds weakening a bit in the afternoon as heights rise and mid-level lapse rates decrease slightly. Still, moisture, while not deep, will pool in the low levels ahead of the surface boundary. Though the amount and persistence of morning clouds will have an effect on temperatures, at this time it appears that convective temperatures should be easily surpassed as the atmosphere destabilizes diurnally. Most, though not all, model solutions do show at least isolated storms popping in the heat of the afternoon, which is consistent with some model solutions from yesterday as well. So, will continue with low PoPs in the forecast for Monday afternoon. Given the amount of instability and moderate deep layer shear, some stronger storms could develop, especially via any storm scale boundaries or interactions. Straight hodographs and some dry air aloft support the idea of gusty winds with the heavier storms. Progged wet bulb zero heights, available shear, and and moderately wide CAPE on soundings indicate brief periods of hail may be possible near the strongest updrafts.

High temperatures tomorrow may be a bit tricky depending on how much cloud we get. For now, with most of the region ahead of the front, will go just on the high edge of the model mean with most locations attaining lower 80s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
Issued at 335 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Monday Night and Tuesday...

12Z hi-res guidance suggests that an area of isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be ongoing at the beginning of the extended forecast period Monday evening, with activity concentrated along a quasi-stationary frontal boundary. This boundary is expected to gradually lift north Monday night into Tuesday as a warm front, with convection dwindling as instability diminishes. Rain chances will linger into Tuesday morning for areas generally along and north of I- 64 as a narrow band of enhanced moist isentropic lift moves through the area. Once this wave lifts into central IN, much of the daytime hours on Tuesday should be dry across central KY and southern IN as we should be far enough into the warm sector that high heights/warm temperatures aloft should cap most if not all convection. Otherwise, warm temperatures should continue in the presence of renewed southerly flow, with highs Tuesday afternoon expected to reach the upper 70s and lower 80s.

Tuesday Night through Wednesday Night...

The period of greatest concern for strong to severe storms across the Ohio Valley will be Tuesday night into Wednesday night as a negatively tilted upper trough ejects northeastward from the central Plains into the upper Midwest, bringing an associated sfc cold front through the Ohio and Tennessee valleys.

Tuesday night, ongoing convection across the mid-Mississippi Valley is expected to move eastward into southwest IN and west central KY.
Medium-range deterministic guidance is now fairly consistent in showing this wave of precipitation, with only subtle timing differences of 3-6 hours between the models. While shear would certainly be supportive of strong to severe storms with this first wave, the region where the greatest low-level moisture and greatest mid-level height falls (resulting in the greatest instability) is located should be "outrun" by this wave of convection by the time it reaches the CWA As a result, the severe potential early Wednesday morning will be determined by how long storms can survive in an environment with little to no instability, and the threat will decrease sharply from west to east across the region.

After a brief break Wednesday morning, a second wave of showers and thunderstorms should arrive with cold FROPA Wednesday afternoon and evening. With this wave, model soundings show greater instability as the greatest low-level moisture and colder temperatures aloft should be co-located across our area. Soundings Wednesday afternoon and evening show around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE with strong deep-layer shear and low-level helicity evident from wind profiles/hodographs. One limiting factor for severe potential would be the antecedent wave of showers/storms, which may limit moisture return and instability for the second wave. As it stands, Wednesday afternoon and evening is the more concerning of the two chances for severe weather, with all convective hazards on the table. Showers and storms will clear the area with cold FROPA Wednesday night into Thursday morning. The areal flooding potential with Tuesday night into Wednesday night's showers and storms doesn't look particularly impressive, as storms should remain fairly progressive, and WPC only has portions of the area outlined in a marginal ERO on Wednesday.

Late Week into Next Weekend...

Model agreement in the large-scale pattern remains relatively high through the end of the week into next weekend. While the mid-week cold front should pass far enough south of the region to bring a brief reprieve from precipitation on Thursday, the parent trough which is driving the system will de-amplify such that zonal flow should set up across the Ohio Valley for the late week and early weekend period. As subsequent shortwave disturbances transit within this area of westerly flow, active weather should continue as additional waves of precipitation are expected from Friday into the weekend. Confidence in timing any one of these waves is fairly low, with at least chance PoPs remaining in place at some point until a larger trough clears everything out late next weekend. Temperatures will gradually cool toward the end of the period as the broad baroclinic zone sags slightly southward. By next weekend, below normal temperatures are favored to return.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 753 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Gusty winds from today are beginning to relax as the sun sets. Skies will remain clear until about 8Z when the cold front sinks south and elevated RH pools over the region. This increased moisture will lead to some cloud coverage. Forecast soundings do not seem to suggest largely deteriorating CIGs overnight, so have opted for SCT 2500ft. As the feature draws closer to the region, a future TAF issuance may gain more insight on height and coverage of clouds.

Winds aloft will increase as a LLJ exits the region. This could lead to boarderline, brief LLWS. Have left this out of the TAFs since it does not meet criteria.

Monday, winds will remain out of the southwest and BKN skies will develop over the region. By the late afternoon, isolated-scattered showers and storms may develop over the I-64 corridor.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...None.
IN...None.




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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KSDF LOUISVILLE MUHAMMAD ALI INTL,KY 12 sm18 minSSW 0410 smClear75°F43°F31%29.87
KFTK GODMAN AAF,KY 16 sm19 minSSW 0510 smClear72°F41°F33%29.87
KLOU BOWMAN FIELD,KY 16 sm21 minSW 0710 smClear73°F45°F36%29.87
KBRY SAMUELS FIELD,KY 17 sm19 minWSW 0610 smClear73°F39°F29%29.89
Link to 5 minute data for KSDF


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Louisville, KY,



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