Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Shepherdsville, KY

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Shepherdsville, KY

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Area Discussion for - Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 081750 AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 150 PM EDT Thu Jun 8 2023

Updated Aviation Discussion

Forecast Update
Issued at 924 AM EDT Thu Jun 8 2023

The Dense Fog Advisory has expired this morning. Fog lingers across south-central Kentucky, but continues to lift and dissipate quicker now. Still looking at filtered sunshine for the remainder of the day with some haziness due to Canadian wildfire smoke being advected south into the Ohio Valley. Significant reduction to visibility is not expected, but visibility may be reduced slightly to around 6-8 miles.

Short Term
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 320 AM EDT Thu Jun 8 2023

Currently, upper level flow, on the western edge of a low pressure system over New England, continues pushing a axis of surface high pressure south through the upper Midwest and into the Lower Ohio Valley. This has helped the near surface atmosphere decouple and surface winds ease. Moisture from yesterday's rainfall is being radiatively cooled causing areas of dense fog, mainly south of the Kentucky parkways. This prompted a Dense Fog Advisory that runs through 13z this morning.

After sunrise, the boundary layer will become better mixed increasing northern winds to around 5 to 10 mph over the CWA. Drier air will drop dew points into the low to mid 40s as high temperatures reach into the mid 70s to near 80 under sunny skies.

Tonight, surface high pressure inches closer to the CWA from the north-northwest. Another inversion sets up and strong radiative cooling is expected, but due to less moisture, fogging isn't expected to be an issue. Temperatures however are expected to fall into to mid 40s to low 50s, which is about 10 to 15 degrees cooler than normal.

Long Term
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 309 AM EDT Thu Jun 8 2023

Quiet weather expected Fri-Sat under NW flow aloft. After below normal temps Fri and Fri night, we'll see some warming on Sat as the closed upper low over the St Lawrence Valley starts to lift out and shortwave ridging builds into the Ohio Valley. Will not include the previously advertised haze/smoke on Friday as the HRRR-Smoke has backed off on near-surface smoke and vis restrictions. However, a weak bubble of sfc high pressure could maintain a stagnant pattern, so our partners may still have some concerns about air quality.

The best rain chances will be Sunday into Sunday night as an upper trof digs into the Upper Midwest and forms a closed low. Limited phasing with a southern stream shortwave, but in June the southerly flow and associated moisture feed is enough. Chances for showers and T-storms ramp up through the day on Sunday, peaking Sun afternoon and evening. QPF could push 1 inch in some areas, with isolated higher amounts, but overall conditions remain dry enough to handle quite a bit of rain.

Low-confidence forecast Monday and beyond as cyclonic curvature in the flow aloft will persist. Pattern across the Deep South is much less amplified, so the Sunday night front will most likely hang up somewhere across the Tennessee Valley, and that could support additional waves of precip early next week. Will generally keep POPs in the chance category, with temps near or slightly below climo.

Aviation
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 149 PM EDT Thu Jun 8 2023

VFR conditions likely through this TAF period. Fog is much less of a concern for tonight due to drier air now in place. SCT diurnal cu near 7 kft this afternoon will diminish with sunset, leaving mainly clear skies overnight. Hazy skies will be possible at times through Friday with Canadian wildfire smoke filtering south into the Ohio Valley. Impacts at the terminals not likely with VIS remaining 6-8+ SM. Light northerly winds will become light and variable late tonight. Prevailing NW winds will increase to 5-8 kts Friday afternoon.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...None.
KY...None.

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