Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Shepherdsville, KY

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Issued at 307 AM EST Wed Jan 15 2025

Sprawling Canadian sfc high centered over the mid-Mississippi Valley will migrate SE across the Ohio Valley today and tonight, settling over the southern Applachians toward daybreak Thursday. Even with clear skies, light winds, and the H8 thermal trof already departing, temps will struggle as we start off quite cold and remain stable, especially over the snow pack across the northern 2/3 of the area.
Look for highs in the mid/upper 20s in snow-covered areas, while south-central Kentucky could reach the mid 30s.

Radiational cooling conditions will be favorable this evening, allowing for a quick drop into the teens. However, warm advection develops tonight as another upper shortwave trof drops SE across the Great Lakes toward the Upper Ohio Valley. Increasingly mixy conditions overnight will result in rising temps after midnight under increasing cloud cover and a SW breeze. Can't rule out a few flurries over southern Indiana just before daybreak Thursday, but not enough forcing or moisture this far south to support measurable precip.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Issued at 307 AM EST Wed Jan 15 2025

Thursday morning, northwest flow will rush into the Lower Ohio Valley with a weak north to south oriented warm front. So even with winds veering towards the west-northwest, temperatures are expected to warm into the mid 30s over the northern parts of the CWA to the mid 40s near Bowling Green. There still appears to be some west to east isentropically lifted moisture ahead of this surge. A few could see flurries in southern Indiana or northern Kentucky, but better chances for precipitation remain north and east of the CWA Models soundings over the CWA show some low level moisture, but the DGZ remains dry most of the day. Those in the north can expect more cloud cover while sunshine will be more likely farther south and west.

Thursday night and Friday, northwest flow is expected to have pushed a surface high from the Southern Plains into the Tennessee River Valley. This will back surface winds over southern Indiana and central Kentucky to the south, increasing warm air advection.
Temperatures Thursday night are expected to "only" fall into the 20s while highs on Friday reach to between 40 and 50 under mostly sunny skies.

Friday night, southern surface flow will cause deep layer moisture over southern Indiana and central Kentucky. Model soundings show stable rain profiles, no thunderstorms. Chances will begin increasing in the west before expanding east across the CWA early Friday night. The heaviest rainfall is expected to fall Friday night before tapering off on Saturday as a cold front pushes through the CWA Winds will shift towards the northwest. Cooler temperatures will advect into the region. Any remaining precipitation is expected to mix with light snow/flurries Saturday evening before changing to all snow/flurries Saturday night. Precipitation is expected to end early Sunday. Currently, expecting any accumulations to be limited.

Cold air advection behind the front will remain in the area through the end of the weekend and into early next week. This will bring the return of sub-freezing temperatures with highs in the teens to low 20s Monday and Tuesday. Nighttime lows could be in the single digits. On the positive side, skies are expected to be mostly sunny with high pressure over the region. Slight warming is expected by midweek.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 627 AM EST Wed Jan 15 2025

VFR conditions expected through the valid TAF period, as Arctic high pressure migrates across the Ohio Valley. Warm advection regime quickly develops tonight with the ridge axis already to our south and east. Light SW winds this evening will pick up closer to 10 kt after midnight, with a mid-level ceiling coming in as well. Can't rule out a few flurries toward daybreak Thu, especially for LEX, but if there are flakes flying we don't expect any restriction to cig or vis.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...None.
IN...None.