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PZZ530 San Pablo Bay, Suisun Bay, The West Delta And The San Francisco Bay North Of The Bay Bridge- 212 Pm Pst Tue Nov 28 2023
Tonight..E winds 5 to 10 knots. Rain likely.
Wed..NE winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of rain.
Wed night..W winds 5 to 10 knots.
Thu..NW winds 5 to 10 knots.
Thu night..W winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots.
Fri..NW winds 5 to 10 knots.
Fri night..W winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of rain.
Sat..W winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of rain.
Sun..SW winds around 5 knots.

PZZ500 212 Pm Pst Tue Nov 28 2023
Synopsis for the central california coast and bays including the Monterey bay..Greater farallones...and cordell bank national marine sanctuaries...
breezy southerly winds through the evening with a low pressure system approaching the the local waters. Fresh to moderate breezes are expected, with briefly strong breezes possible in the northern offshore waters. Scattered showers develop late tonight and persist through the first half of Wednesday. An isolated Thunderstorm or two is also possible. Winds gradually diminishing and shifting north late Wednesday into Thursday before strong breezes develop by Thursday night. A larger moderate period northwest swell should arrive by late week. Weather conditions will remain unsettled into this weekend with plenty of cloud cover and periodic shower chances.

FXUS66 KMTR 282040 AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1240 PM PST Tue Nov 28 2023

New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM

SYNOPSIS
Issued at 1238 PM PST Tue Nov 28 2023

Showers developing overnight with light rainfall amounts expected through Wednesday morning. Unsettled pattern for the rest of the week with cooler temperatures.

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 1238 PM PST Tue Nov 28 2023

Satellite imagery shows the upper level low pressure system approaching the region currently placed around 400 miles to the west of San Francisco. Model consensus is for this low pressure system to develop into an open wave as it crosses the California coast on Wednesday, while the associated surface low remains offshore, thus keeping most of the vertical motion offshore. Showers will start to come onshore this evening, spreading west to east overnight.
Forecast rain amounts have increased somewhat from the previous forecast update but are expected to remain beneficial with no flooding concerns, with rainfall totals across the North Bay valleys around a third to two thirds of an inch, from a tenth to four tenths of an inch in the SF Bay Area, and a tenth to a quarter of an inch around Monterey Bay. Coastal ranges will see around a quarter to three quarters of an inch of rain while the inland Central Coast sees up to two tenths of an inch or less.
Still can not rule out a chance of thunderstorms (up to 10% probability) across the region, especially near the coast, but the greatest probabilities lie offshore (20-30% probability). Shower activity will begin to diminish Wednesday morning, followed by clearer skies beginning in the afternoon.

High temperatures today range from the mid to upper 60s in the inland valleys, to the mid 50s to lower 60s along the coast and at higher elevations. Low temperatures will be milder than the last few nights with most areas in the 40s, perhaps down to the mid to upper 30s ion the interior parts of Monterey and San Benito counties.
Wednesday's highs will be cooler as the rain passes through, with highs generally in the low to mid 60s across the lower elevations, and into the 50s for the higher elevations.

LONG TERM
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 1238 PM PST Tue Nov 28 2023

Unsettled weather continues through the rest of the week as northwest flow continues in the upper atmosphere. A couple of disturbances will come through the west coast, but the most impacts will be felt across the Pacific Northwest into the northern parts of California. Any rainfall in our region will generally be concentrated in the North Bay. Current model output suggests rain totals of up to a quarter of an inch in the North Bay coastal ranges through the extended period.

Temperatures continue to be cool for the rest of the week, with highs generally from the upper 50s to lower 60s and down to the lower 50s in the higher elevations, before an upper level ridge develops this upcoming weekend, heralding a warming trend expected to continue through the early part of next week.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 935 AM PST Tue Nov 28 2023

Currently VFR throughout the region. High clouds will build across the region today, with more mid-level clouds building tonight and Wednesday morning as a low pressure system approaches the region.
Winds will build from the south and the southwest this afternoon, up to 10 knots at the terminals. Winds diminish in the evening hours, turning towards the southeast and east as rain approaches the region. Some marginal MVFR conditions are possible in the North Bay terminals with the heaviest rain. Considered adding MVFR ceilings to the STS and APC TAFs, but ceilings appear to be too patchy to have good confidence in the forecast. Winds strengthen to around 8-10 knots with the best rain chances through Wednesday morning, then diminish as the rain chances move out.

Vicinity of SFO...Generally VFR through the TAF period with possible decreased visibility in the heaviest rain. Afternoon winds from the southwest at up to 10 knots, diminishing in the evening before rain arrives overnight, accompanied by winds turning to the southeast with speeds increasing to up to 10 knots. As the low pressure system moves out, rain chances decrease while winds turn to the east and diminish.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR with mid- to high level clouds through the TAF period. Breezy drainage winds at SNS turning to the north later this morning, and southwest winds building to 10 knots at MRY, before diminishing early this evening. Rain chances arriving early Wednesday morning, with southeasterly winds building to 8-12 knots through the end of the TAF period.

MARINE
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 935 AM PST Tue Nov 28 2023

Southerly winds steadily building today with a low pressure system approaching the the local waters. Fresh to moderate breezes are expected, with briefly strong breezes possible in the northern offshore waters. Scattered showers develop late tonight and persist through the first half of Wednesday. An isolated thunderstorm or two is also possible. Winds will gradually diminish and shift to northerly late Wednesday into Thursday before strong breezes develop by Thursday night. A larger moderate period northwest swell should arrive by late week. Weather conditions will remain unsettled into this weekend with plenty of cloud cover and periodic shower chances.

BEACHES
Issued at 1238 PM PST Tue Nov 28 2023

The Coastal Flood Advisory was cancelled as tide levels are beginning to lower after peak high tide. With astronomical tide levels expected to be lower tomorrow, no further Coastal Flood Advisories are expected for the rest of the week.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...None.
PZ...None.

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Bolinas Lagoon
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Tue -- 12:37 AM PST     3.39 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:43 AM PST     1.81 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:04 AM PST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:41 AM PST     Moonset
Tue -- 10:56 AM PST     4.53 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:52 PM PST     Sunset
Tue -- 05:50 PM PST     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:46 PM PST     -0.72 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Bolinas Lagoon, California, Tide feet

Point San Pablo Midchannel
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:20 AM PST     1.70 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 03:30 AM PST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:25 AM PST     -0.92 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 07:03 AM PST     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:31 AM PST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 08:41 AM PST     Moonset
Tue -- 10:34 AM PST     2.13 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 01:39 PM PST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 04:51 PM PST     Sunset
Tue -- 05:27 PM PST     -3.21 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 05:49 PM PST     Moonrise
Tue -- 09:48 PM PST     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Point San Pablo Midchannel, San Pablo Bay, California Current, knots

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