Wednesday, August21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Greenbackville, VA

Version 3.4
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7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:20AMSunset 7:50PM Wednesday August 21, 2019 11:55 AM EDT (15:55 UTC) Moonrise 10:09PMMoonset 10:50AM Illumination 65% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ652 Coastal Waters From Chincoteague To Parramore Island Va Out 20 Nm- 937 Am Edt Wed Aug 21 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from 4 pm edt this afternoon through late tonight...
Rest of today..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming S 15 to 20 kt late. Seas 3 to 4 ft with a dominant period of 10 seconds. A chance of showers and tstms this afternoon.
Tonight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft with a dominant period of 6 seconds, subsiding to 4 ft with a dominant period of 6 seconds late. A chance of showers and tstms.
Thu..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft with a dominant period of 8 seconds. A chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Thu night..S winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw 15 to 20 kt late in the evening, then diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas around 3 ft with a dominant period of 10 seconds. Showers and tstms likely.
Fri..NW winds 10 kt, becoming N in the afternoon. Seas around 3 ft. A chance of tstms. Showers likely, mainly in the morning.
Fri night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Tstms likely. Showers likely.
Sat..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 3 ft. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Sat night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms in the evening.
Sun..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sun night..E winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ600 937 Am Edt Wed Aug 21 2019
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. A cold front approaches from the west later this week and crosses the area on Friday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Greenbackville, VA
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location: 38.01, -75.38     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 211400
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
1000 am edt Wed aug 21 2019

Synopsis
A trough of low pressure will persist across the area through
Thursday. A cold front moves across the area Thursday night,
then stalls along the virginia-north carolina border Friday
before pushing south into the carolinas Saturday. High pressure
builds into the area for the later half of the weekend.

Near term through tonight
As of 1000 am edt Wednesday...

some low and mid level clouds persist across the area this
morning. Temps are rising through the mid 70s into the low 80s
with increasing south and southwest winds 10-15mph, becoming
gusty into the afternoon hours. Daytime high temps in the upper
80s and low 90s.

Hi-res guidance continues to show an area of showers and
thunderstorms traversing the southern third of the region late
this morning and into the afternoon. Additional storms will form
across the western northwestern portion of the area on a weak
surface trough later this afternoon and move eastward. SPC has
included all but NE nc in a marginal risk for severe storms this
afternoon. The main threat continues to be strong severe
straight line winds in the strongest thunderstorm cores.

Frequent lightning and locally heavy rain can be expected to
accompany storms late this morning into the evening and early
overnight hours.

Sct convection continues thru 06z tonight then dissipates. Otw,
pt cldy warm humid. Lows 70-75.

Short term Thursday through Friday night
As of 330 am edt Wednesday...

will keep a persistent forecast going thurs for mainly diurnal
convection firing up along the sfc trof during the aftrn eve ahead
of the cold front apprchg from the nw. Maintained chc pops (30-50%
highest west). Ahead of it, enuf heating to push temps back up into
the low-mid 90s before any convection dvlps. Heat index values arnd
100 degrees.

Models continue to slow the southern movement of the cold front
thurs nite, now to a position across central va by 12z fri. Kept chc
pops except low end likely across the ERN shore as this bndry slowly
sags south thurs nite. Mstly cldy with lows in the 70s.

Interesting setup Fri fri nite as the front is progged to stall near
the va nc border Fri aftrn with a few waves of low pressure progged
to move east on it Fri nite. This will enhance the pcpn threat
especially across the SRN half of the fa. Have increased pops to
high end likely for now. Could be looking at some training storms
leading to some potential flooding issues. Highs Fri in the 80s.

Rain tapers off (but does not end after midnight) Fri nite. Lows
mid 60s-lwr 70s. QPF 1-2 inches across the SRN half of the fa. Wpc
has us in a marginal day 2 ero risk.

Long term Saturday through Tuesday
As of 330 am edt Wednesday...

low pressure moves east into the vacapes erly sat. The movement
of the low combined with high pressure building in from the nw
will allow the front to sink south into SRN nc Sat aftrn. Enough
lingering moisture behind this bndry to keep chc pops going thru
the day sat. More clouds south with some pt sunny skies north by
the aftrn. Much cooler with highs ur 70s-lwr 80s.

Shower TSTM chances continue Sun over S SW portions of the cwa
as ridging aloft sets up off the sc ga coast and our region goes
under moist wsw-sw flow aloft while sfc ridging builds into the
area. Have 30-40% pops for SRN va NE nc. Continued chances for
mainly aftn-evening showers tstms early next week as weak troughing
tries to re-establish itself from the great lakes to the deep south
and deep layer moisture continues to stream into the region from
the sw.

Highs mainly in the low-mid 80s through Mon with lows in the
60s (except for some low 70s in coastal SE va NE nc). Slightly
warmer by next Tuesday with highs mainly in the mid 80s.

Aviation 14z Wednesday through Sunday
As of 640 am edt Wednesday...

vfr conditions should prevail through the forecast period. The
exception will be for anthr day of aftrn eve convection that
fires up along the lee trof and weak low pressure moving across
nc later this morning and erly aftrn. Kept thunder out of the
forecast ATTM given low confidence of timing convection at any
one TAF site, but did include vcsh and a bkn CU deck after 18z.

Sw winds 10-20 kts this aftrn.

Outlook...

more of the same Thursday as addntl late day eve convection
dvlps along the lee trof. A cold front slowly moves across the
local area thurs nite then stalls across nc fri. Expct sct to
numerous shras and tstms are anticipated W (and lingering
behind into sat) that cold frontal passage.

Marine
As of 330 am edt Wednesday...

small craft advisories are now in effect for the northern coastal
waters, ches bay, and currituck sound this afternoon into Thursday
morning. Current observations show SW winds of around 10 to 15 knots
over the waters with seas of 2 to 3 feet and waves in the bay of 1
to 2 feet. Expect winds to steadily increase through this afternoon
and evening as a cold front approaches the region from the west.

Winds become S to SW at around 15 to 20 knots late this afternoon
into tonight with gusts of 20 to 25 knots. Latest wind probability
guidance continues to highlight the northern coastal waters and ches
bay for at least low end SCA conditions through tonight, thus a sca
is now in effect beginning later this afternoon. Seas will also be
on the increase through the day, building to 4 to 5 feet across the
north by tonight. Winds decrease below SCA levels Thursday morning
as the pressure gradient relaxes. The aforementioned cold front
slowly drops south across the waters early Friday before likely
hanging up near or just south of the va nc border. Winds turn to the
n NW behind the front. The front eventually drops south of the
region by Saturday with onshore flow anticipated through the
weekend.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 1 pm this afternoon to 4 am edt
Thursday for anz630>632-634.

Small craft advisory from 4 pm this afternoon to 1 am edt
Thursday for anz633.

Small craft advisory from 4 pm this afternoon to 4 am edt
Thursday for anz650-652-654.

Synopsis... Mpr
near term... Mpr rhr
short term... Mpr
long term... Eri mpr
aviation... Mpr
marine... Ajb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44089 18 mi25 min 79°F2 ft
OCIM2 - 8570283 - Ocean City Inlet, MD 27 mi55 min W 12 G 16 82°F 74°F1016.8 hPa (-0.7)
OCSM2 28 mi175 min 2 ft
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 32 mi55 min SW 7 G 11 85°F 84°F1016.5 hPa (-0.5)
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 38 mi55 min SW 15 G 18 1016.4 hPa (-0.5)
44009 - DELAWARE BAY 26 NM Southeast of Cape May, NJ 47 mi65 min SSW 16 G 18 80°F 80°F3 ft1015.7 hPa (-0.6)
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 47 mi55 min 1017.6 hPa (-0.0)

Wind History for Ocean City Inlet, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wallops Flight Facility Airport, VA7 mi61 minSW 910.00 miPartly Cloudy86°F73°F67%1016.3 hPa
Salisbury, Salisbury-Ocean City Wicomico County Regional Airport, MD24 mi61 minSW 1110.00 miFair83°F72°F70%1016.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KWAL

Wind History from WAL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE5E7SE5S6S7----SE4SE4SE7S8----------S3--S8S8------SW9
1 day agoS10S10S11S13--S11S11S13
G19
S12S12S8S9--------SW3W3--CalmW4W4--E4
2 days agoSE11SE8SE10S7S8S8SE8SE6S6SE5S3----SW4--SW4----CalmSW5S4S4S9--

Tide / Current Tables for Franklin City, Chincoteague Bay, Virginia
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Franklin City
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Wed -- 01:51 AM EDT     0.63 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:21 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:34 AM EDT     0.08 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 11:50 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 02:16 PM EDT     0.65 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:47 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:04 PM EDT     0.15 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 11:09 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.50.60.60.60.50.40.20.10.10.10.20.30.50.60.60.60.60.50.30.20.20.20.20.3

Tide / Current Tables for Chincoteague Island, USCG Station, Chincoteague Bay, Virginia
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Chincoteague Island
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:29 AM EDT     1.59 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:21 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:47 AM EDT     0.19 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 11:50 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 12:54 PM EDT     1.62 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:17 PM EDT     0.38 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:46 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 11:09 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.61.61.41.10.70.40.20.20.30.71.11.41.61.61.51.310.70.50.40.40.60.91.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.