Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Jetmore, KS
November 30, 2023 8:51 PM CST (02:51 UTC)
Sunrise 7:34AM Sunset 5:23PM Moonrise 8:12PM Moonset 10:59AM
Area Discussion for - Dodge City, KS
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FXUS63 KDDC 010008 AFDDDC
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 608 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023
updated aviation section
KEY MESSAGES
- Widespread rain and snow are expected this evening along and east of a line from Liberal to Dodge City to La Crosse. Snow amounts could approach 1 inch along a narrow corridor from Ford county northeastward to Stafford, Edwards and Pawnee counties.
- Total precipitation amounts between a quarter inch and an inch are possible over south central Kansas this evening.
- Seasonably cool weather is forecast for Friday through Sunday.
- Above average temperatures are predicted for Monday through Thursday, with high temperatures possibly in the upper 60s to lower 70s Wednesday and Thursday.
- An upper level storm system is expected to amplify over the Rockies by late next weekend.
SHORT TERM
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 311 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023
Light rain was moving into Kansas from the southwest this afternoon ahead of a robust but rapidly moving upper level disturbance. Cooler and drier air was arriving from the north. As this system passes south of here this evening, the rain will likely change to snow, especially along a line from Meade and Ford counties northeastward through Stafford, Edwards and Pawnee counties. If snow rates are high enough, some accumulation could occur. Confidence was not high enough for a winter weather advisory. A special weather statement was issued instead. The various high resolution model blends and ensemble suites including the NBM4.1, HRRR and EPS generally indicate high chances (around 70%) of a dusting of snow (half inch or less) in the aforementioned corridor, small chances (30-50%) for 1-2" amounts and 10-30% chances for isolated 2" or more amounts.
As far as total precipitation (rain and snow) are concerned, the highest amounts are expected over south central Kansas around Medicine Lodge where 25th and 75th percentiles are .5 and 1" on the CMCE and GEFS ensemble suites, and .5 to .8" per EPS.
In the wake of this system, expect a cold start to Friday with readings in the upper teens to near 30. Afternoon highs should only reach the lower 40s.
LONG TERM
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 311 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023
Cool weather will persist through Sunday as upper level troughing develops over the plains and Midwest. However, a warming trend will commence by Monday as upper level ridging develops over the southern Rockies, with downslope flow over the high plains. The EPS and CMCE mean 850mb temperatures increase to around 15C, indicating the potential for maximum temperatures from the upper 60s to lower 70s.
The EPS, GEFS and CMCE all indicate an upper level trough developing across the western United States by late next weekend and translating eastward. Unfortunately, this far west on the plains it takes more than a deep trough to bring precipitation as other ingredients need to be in place as well.
AVIATION
(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 604 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023
A broad area of rain was lifting northward across the Kansas Oklahoma line this evening, and will continue to lift into central Kansas through midnight. The radar is showing an area of 40 to almost 50 dbz refelctivity returns, consistent with melting hydrometeors, resulting the the cold rain at the surface. Snow amounts have been not well agreed upon by the different model solutions, but can’t be ruled out around the DDC terminal this evening especially after 2z - and if snow gets going, it should last at least couple of hours or so before waning.
Snow that does accummulate on grassy areas will likley melt on wet pavement where road temps have been in the 40s. Expect visibility on snow reduced as low as a half mile locally from Liberal and DDC vicinity with ceilings dropping near IFR for period as well through the late evening.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DDC 23 40 20 42 / 60 0 0 10 GCK 19 40 19 44 / 30 0 0 0 EHA 18 45 20 51 / 20 0 0 0 LBL 20 43 19 46 / 50 0 0 0 HYS 24 37 18 41 / 30 10 0 10 P28 30 40 24 44 / 100 0 0 10
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 608 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023
updated aviation section
KEY MESSAGES
- Widespread rain and snow are expected this evening along and east of a line from Liberal to Dodge City to La Crosse. Snow amounts could approach 1 inch along a narrow corridor from Ford county northeastward to Stafford, Edwards and Pawnee counties.
- Total precipitation amounts between a quarter inch and an inch are possible over south central Kansas this evening.
- Seasonably cool weather is forecast for Friday through Sunday.
- Above average temperatures are predicted for Monday through Thursday, with high temperatures possibly in the upper 60s to lower 70s Wednesday and Thursday.
- An upper level storm system is expected to amplify over the Rockies by late next weekend.
SHORT TERM
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 311 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023
Light rain was moving into Kansas from the southwest this afternoon ahead of a robust but rapidly moving upper level disturbance. Cooler and drier air was arriving from the north. As this system passes south of here this evening, the rain will likely change to snow, especially along a line from Meade and Ford counties northeastward through Stafford, Edwards and Pawnee counties. If snow rates are high enough, some accumulation could occur. Confidence was not high enough for a winter weather advisory. A special weather statement was issued instead. The various high resolution model blends and ensemble suites including the NBM4.1, HRRR and EPS generally indicate high chances (around 70%) of a dusting of snow (half inch or less) in the aforementioned corridor, small chances (30-50%) for 1-2" amounts and 10-30% chances for isolated 2" or more amounts.
As far as total precipitation (rain and snow) are concerned, the highest amounts are expected over south central Kansas around Medicine Lodge where 25th and 75th percentiles are .5 and 1" on the CMCE and GEFS ensemble suites, and .5 to .8" per EPS.
In the wake of this system, expect a cold start to Friday with readings in the upper teens to near 30. Afternoon highs should only reach the lower 40s.
LONG TERM
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 311 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023
Cool weather will persist through Sunday as upper level troughing develops over the plains and Midwest. However, a warming trend will commence by Monday as upper level ridging develops over the southern Rockies, with downslope flow over the high plains. The EPS and CMCE mean 850mb temperatures increase to around 15C, indicating the potential for maximum temperatures from the upper 60s to lower 70s.
The EPS, GEFS and CMCE all indicate an upper level trough developing across the western United States by late next weekend and translating eastward. Unfortunately, this far west on the plains it takes more than a deep trough to bring precipitation as other ingredients need to be in place as well.
AVIATION
(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 604 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023
A broad area of rain was lifting northward across the Kansas Oklahoma line this evening, and will continue to lift into central Kansas through midnight. The radar is showing an area of 40 to almost 50 dbz refelctivity returns, consistent with melting hydrometeors, resulting the the cold rain at the surface. Snow amounts have been not well agreed upon by the different model solutions, but can’t be ruled out around the DDC terminal this evening especially after 2z - and if snow gets going, it should last at least couple of hours or so before waning.
Snow that does accummulate on grassy areas will likley melt on wet pavement where road temps have been in the 40s. Expect visibility on snow reduced as low as a half mile locally from Liberal and DDC vicinity with ceilings dropping near IFR for period as well through the late evening.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DDC 23 40 20 42 / 60 0 0 10 GCK 19 40 19 44 / 30 0 0 0 EHA 18 45 20 51 / 20 0 0 0 LBL 20 43 19 46 / 50 0 0 0 HYS 24 37 18 41 / 30 10 0 10 P28 30 40 24 44 / 100 0 0 10
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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Airport Reports
EDIT (on/off) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KDDC DODGE CITY RGNL,KS | 19 sm | 59 min | NNE 20G28 | 10 sm | Overcast | 37°F | 28°F | 70% | 29.75 |
Wind History from DDC
(wind in knots)
Dodge City, KS,
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