Jetmore, KS Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Jetmore, KS

June 14, 2024 6:45 AM CDT (11:45 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:16 AM   Sunset 9:04 PM
Moonrise 1:07 PM   Moonset 1:01 AM 
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Jetmore, KS
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Area Discussion for - Dodge City, KS
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FXUS63 KDDC 141030 AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 530 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) severe thunderstorms tonight with main risk being damaging straight line winds 65+ mph. Greatest risk will be across far west central Kansas.

- Secondary round of storms very early Saturday morning farther south, but these storms will likely be sub-severe.

- Yet a third round (or perhaps a loose continuation of the Saturday morning round) later in the day Saturday with Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) of severe storms across southwest, central, and south central Kansas.

- Hot and windy weather Sunday, Monday, and possibly Tuesday with daily highs upper 90s to perhaps lower 100s.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 312 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

The overnight water vapor imagery and RAP analysis revealed a fairly typical synoptic setting characterized by dominant polar jet stream positioned well to our north. The polar jet up north had a fairly high zonal index (not very amplified), however a rather formidable upper low was spinning across the Desert Southwest region, well to the south of the main polar jet, and this feature will play a significant role in our sensible weather later on today and tonight, extending in to Saturday.

Last night's small mesoscale convective system (MCS) decayed across Oklahoma late last night, leaving behind a rather nebulous MSLP and surface wind field. The MSLP and low level flow field will begin to respond to the approaching Southwest Low later on today with southeast winds increasing through the day. The increased easterly low level momentum will increase low level moisture advection back into western Kansas. The axis of greatest low level moisture, marked by upper 60s to around 70F dewpoints, will shift north through the day, but there is still some uncertainty regarding how far north the low level Theta-E axis will shift into west central/northwest Kansas by mid to late afternoon when surface-based convection initiates across eastern Colorado. The 00Z run of the HRRR shows the best CAPE+Shear parameter space (ex: joint probs of SBCAPE > 500 J/kg and 0-6km Bulk Shear Magnitude > 30 knots greater than 40%) lifting north from west central KS into northwestern Kansas and southwestern Nebraska late in the day, which also coincides with best mid- tropospheric potential vorticity advection late in the day from east central Colorado into northwest Kansas. All of the aforementioned is the reason why latest SPC SWODY1 has greatest severe wx outlook probs centered just north of our forecast area. That said, the southern periphery of the 15% + "hatched" thunderstorm wind outlook does include our far northwestern area of responsibility from roughly Syracuse to Scott City to WaKeeney.

As far as the official forecast goes, POPs have been updated with 60- 70% out west toward Colorado border tapering off to 20 to 30% southeast of a Meade to Dodge City to Larned line...and even less than that across the Red Hills region. The latest timing of the severe event later on today and tonight looks to be a little later in the evening that what we saw last evening with the expected line of strong/severe storms entering the far west 23-24Z (6-7 PM CDT), the U83 corridor around 8 or 9 PM and later than that points farther east should the line of storms hold together after sunset this far south. Should the main evening MCS lift northeast and miss much of our central/southern counties, there will be another opportunity early Saturday morning as another jet streak interacts with a secondary axis of low level moisture advection just to the south of southwest Kansas in the 09-15Z Saturday morning time frame.

By afternoon Saturday after a period of insolation works on the boundary layer, a southwest to northeast axis of remnant moisture and low level convergence in vicinity of (a) remaining outflow boundary(ies) and mid level weakness/troughing will likely result in another round of scattered to numerous thunderstorms within or very near our forecast area, hence widespread 30 to 40 POPs late in the day Saturday.

Going late into the weekend into next week, broad southwesterly flow aloft will extend from much of the western CONUS out across the northern Great Plains, which will induce fairly deep leeside troughing and subsequent strong southerly winds/hotter temperature.
Sunday and Monday look particularly hot with widespread upper 90s to lower 100s, especially along/west of U283 to the Colorado line. By mid-week, model trends (deterministic and ensemble systems) suggest a polar front reaching Kansas which will likely increase our thunderstorm chances once again, along with a pullback in temperature.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 527 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

VFR conditions will prevail today with mostly clear skies. Winds will generally be from the southeast, gusting to over 20 knots by this afternoon.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.




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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KDDC DODGE CITY RGNL,KS 19 sm53 minN 0610 smClear64°F61°F88%30.05
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Dodge City, KS,




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