Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Jetmore, KS

DISCUSSION
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sat Jun 21 2025

WV imagery indicates a southwest flow aloft prevailing across the Western High Plains. Near the surface, an anchored lee side trough of low pressure is deepening across eastern Colorado.

Very minimal thunderstorm chances (<20%) exist across extreme southwest Kansas early in the period as a belt of stronger (+50K)
southwesterlies aloft across eastern Colorado begin to shift slightly east early this evening. Near the surface, pooling moisture within a field of southerlies ahead of a near stationary dryline will continue to support increased instability with MLCAPE values building in excess of 1000-1500 J/kg across central and much of southwest Kansas. Though model soundings show lingering capping in place across much of the area through late afternoon/early evening, a few isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out in vicinity of an axis of low level convergence associated with the dryline as H5 vort maxima kick northeast out of the Southern Rockies through eastern Colorado. This is suggested by the HRRR indicating only a 10% probability of 6-hr QPF exceeding just a 0.1 of an inch in an isolated nature closer to the Colorado line.
A similar setup is likely for thunderstorm chances (20-30%) late Sunday, though slightly eastward as the NBM points to a more widespread 10% probability of 6-hr QPF nudging above a 0.1 of an inch across extreme southwest Kansas. There are much better chances (60-80%) for thunderstorms Monday as a cold front is projected to push southeastward through northeast Colorado and southwest Nebraska before stalling out generally somewhere across west central Kansas into north central Kansas. Here the NBM paints a 30-40% probability of 6-hr QPF topping 0.25 of an inch by late Monday evening.

Very mild temperatures are forecast tonight as prevailing southerlies reinforce a much warmer airmass across western Kansas.
Look for widespread lows in the 70s(F) with the HRRR indicating only a 10% probability of temperatures dropping below 75F in central Kansas to better than a 90% probability below 75F in southwest Kansas. Hot temperatures are likely again Sunday with prevailing southerlies helping support H85 temperatures holding in the mid 20s(C) in central Kansas to the upper 20s(F) out near the Colorado line. Afternoon highs generally in the 90s(F) can be expected with the HRRR painting a widespread >90% probability of temperatures exceeding 90F. Look for similar temperatures Monday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 1102 AM CDT Sat Jun 21 2025

VFR conditions will prevail in vicinity of all TAF sites through early Sunday. Gusty south-southwest winds are expected to subside somewhat later this evening with loss of daytime heating while a lee side trough of low pressure remains anchored in eastern Colorado.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.