Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Mineral, VA

KEY MESSAGES
- 1) Dry and seasonable this weekend.

- 2) Dry and mild Monday through Wednesday.

- 3) Colder and unsettled Thursday and Friday.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry and seasonable this weekend.

In the wake of the late week cold frontal passage, atmospheric moisture continues to decrease. The 00Z IAD sounding indicated a precipitable water value of 0.38 inches which is down nearly a half inch from yesterday at this time.

Surface high pressure will continue to build near and south of the region through the weekend as an upper trough axis pulls away to the east. Earlier brisk west to northwest winds have begun to subside this evening given the loss of daytime heating/mixing. However, such winds will remain elevated in nature across the higher elevations and over the waters. Looking to Sunday, it will still be breezy, but about 5-10 mph lower.

Wave clouds/stratocumulus likely persist west of I-81 into the evening. It will be mainly clear and dry otherwise.

The central Virginia Piedmont will be closer to the high and have a chance to decouple (winds going light/calm) tonight and again Sunday night. Near freezing temperatures are expected as a result. Frost/freeze headlines have been issued, and if current guidance is correct, the growing season may end tonight for several zones in central Virginia.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Dry and mild Monday through Wednesday.

One dry front will cross by Monday, leading to breezy northwest winds returning. Cold advection behind this front is modest, so high temperatures will likely be similar to Sunday when combined with downsloping effects.

Another dry/weak front will move across the region Tuesday.
Temperatures will be about 5 to 8 degrees above average as there could be a warming surface wind out of the southwest. Highs will reach the middle 60s to lower 70s with upper 50s to near 60 in the mountains. Lows Tuesday night will drop into the upper 30s to mid 40s. Once the front moves through, a surface high pressure will quickly build into and across the region for Wednesday. This will allow for temperatures to remain above average by a few degrees and the day to be dry. Highs in the middle to upper 60s with middle 50s in the mountains. The high quickly moves east by Wednesday night. Lows mid 30s to mid 40s.
The colder temperatures could support some frost/freeze concerns where the growing season continues mainly east of the Blue Ridge.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Colder and unsettled Thursday and Friday.

Looking into the Thursday and Friday timeframe, an area of low pressure could move along the Ohio Valley or Lower Great Lakes and push into parts of the Mid-Atlantic region. An associated cold front will trail the main low. Some rain showers could accompany the low and front. During the same timeframe, a secondary low pressure system (or multiple smaller low pressure systems) will try to catch up to the first low and thus intensify it near the Eastern Seaboard. There are some discrepancies with the many models in the position, timing, and intensity of the secondary low pressure system. As for now, there is a higher confidence that the weather could become unsettled with rain showers or periods of rain, as well as some higher elevation snow or rain/snow mix. It is too early to tell where or to what extent any snow will evolve in any areas further to the east and southeast in our region. Highs Thursday only in the upper 50s to lower 60s and Friday will have highs in the upper 40s to middle 50s with some mid/upper 30s for highs in the Appalachians.

AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR conditions are expected at all TAF sites through the weekend. Few-sct stratocumulus around FL040-060 are expected, especially near MRB. Earlier gusty W/NW winds have subsided this evening, but some occasional gusts around 15 to 20 knots are possible at times through the night (perhaps notably lighter near CHO). Winds take a bit more W/SW component Sun, generally 3-8 kt less than today. VFR persists Mon with renewed gusty W/NW winds to around 25 kts.

VFR conditions Tuesday and Wednesday. Winds southwest to west 5 to 10 knots Tuesday. Winds west then light and variable Wednesday.

MARINE
Gusty west to northwest winds are expected through this evening, solidly into SCA thresholds with a few peak gusts around 30 kts possible at times. Winds gradually subside through Sunday while taking on a bit more of a westerly component. A dry front will reinvigorate west to northwest wind gusts late Sunday night through Monday with additional SCAs likely.

Small Craft Advisories possible Tuesday for the upper and middle Chesapeake Bay. No marine hazards expected Wednesday.
Winds southwest 10 to 15 knots gusts up to 20 knots possible Tuesday. Winds becoming west 5 to 10 knots Wednesday.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Monday for MDZ008.
VA...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST Sunday for VAZ036>039-050-051- 502.
Frost Advisory until 9 AM EST Sunday for VAZ040-055-056-501- 526-527.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Monday for ANZ530>534- 537>543.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Sunday for ANZ535-536.