Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Mineral, VA

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
Evening update... Moderate rain ongoing in vicinity of mesolow across northern VA. Modest rain rates over a prolonged period could result in some localized flooding issues across NOVA and the DC metro. Have issued an SPS for the Alleghenies. Traffic cameras across the Alleghenies continue to show areas of significant reductions in visibility, especially on the eastern slops. Will monitor the need for any Dense Fog Advisories overnight
Previous discussion follows

The stalled frontal boundary over the Alleghenies has not moved since late morning, with noted numerous showers/thunderstorms just to our west in WV and southwest PA. To our south, a warm front is lifting north across central VA. As of 3PM, it has reached the James River, and will continue to progress north this afternoon. The progress of the warm front likely halts somewhere between I-64 and I- 66 as the CAD wedge is reinforced by stratiform rain moving in from the Shenandoah Valley.

It has been a cool summer afternoon thus far as most of the area is seeing temps in the 60s. Low to mid 70s in the central Shenandoah Valley and central VA where the sun has proven its existence today.

A Flood Watch remains in effect through this evening for the Alleghenies and parts of central VA. The ongoing showers and thunderstorms are very slow moving, and with efficient warm-cloud processes it won't take much for heavy rain to fall in a short period of time. These showers and a few thunderstorms make their way east of the Blue Ridge into northern VA/MD this evening into tonight. By that point the heavy rain threat will have mostly ended, though cannot rule out a heavy storm producing some localized flooding in the urban I-95 corridor.

A brief lull in precip is possible, then a light, steady drizzle builds in as another strong inversion sets up tonight. Mist and patchy fog are likely as temps settle in the 60s.

SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
Will likely need a Flood Watch for western zones near Allegheny Front at some point for tomorrow
Previous discussion follows

High pressure over eastern Canada/northern New England continues to keep a stalled frontal boundary over our area. The CAD wedge again persists over the area most of the day, keeping conditions cooler and cloudy. The morning drizzle and scattered light showers will dissipate late morning to early afternoon. Another round of afternoon showers and thunderstorms is likely along the stalled front, with the main activity focusing west of the Blue Ridge.
Highs Monday are forecast in the upper 60s and low to mid 70s.

The stalled surface boundary finally starts to lift north of the area as a warm front Tuesday afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to form during the afternoon hours, within a very humid airmass (surface dewpoints around 70). High temperatures on Tuesday are expected to be reach into the upper 70s and mid 80s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
High pressure strengthens offshore moving into the middle of the week, leading to south to southwesterly low-level flow and increasing heat and humidity locally. Temperatures should reach into the 90s on both Wednesday and Thursday. When combined with dewpoints in the lower 70s, heat indices may approach 100 on Thursday.
Thunderstorms appear possible both days, but the greater coverage should be on Thursday as an upper trough tracks off to our north across the Great Lakes, with its associated cold front approaching from the west. Current model guidance suggests that ample instability and shear may be present on Thursday, so some storms may be on the stronger side. Upper troughing is expected to dig in from the Great Lakes on Friday. Cooler and drier conditions are expected locally in the wake of the system's cold front heading into next weekend.

AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Low clouds and mainly IFR conditions persist across the area through Tuesday morning. CIGs generally around 500-1000 feet, with possibility of sub-500ft CIGs during the early morning hours.
Showers and thunderstorms are possible each afternoon/evening, though the highest chances are going to be at CHO today and Monday.
More widespread convection is possible on Tuesday. A warm front lifts through the area on Tuesday, finally scouring out the low clouds.

Sub-VFR conditions may be possible Tuesday morning, but improvement back to prevailing VFR conditions is expected Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday. Temporary drops to sub-VFR conditions may be possible in thunderstorms both Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon.

MARINE
A stalled front over the region will bring period of showers and thunderstorms through Tuesday. Easterly winds around 10 knots, and likely remain sub-SCA through the start of the week. Occasional gusts to around 20 knots are possible at times. Some marine fog is possible tonight given the moist airmass in place. Less shower and thunderstorm activity is also expected today through Monday given the proximity of the boundary south of the region.

Sub-SCA level southerly winds are expected over the waters on both Tuesday and Wednesday.SCA conditions look to return Thursday into Friday as a strong cold front crosses the waters.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...None.
MD...Flood Watch until 11 PM EDT this evening for MDZ501-502-509- 510.
VA...Flood Watch until 11 PM EDT this evening for VAZ025-026-036- 037-503-504-508.
WV...Flood Watch until 11 PM EDT this evening for WVZ055-501>506.
MARINE...None.