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ANZ536 Tidal Potomac From Indian Head To Cobb Island- 946 Pm Est Thu Nov 30 2023
Rest of tonight..S winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain likely. Patchy fog.
Sat..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of rain. Patchy fog.
Sat night..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Rain likely.
Sun..W winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of rain.
Sun night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of rain.
Mon..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of rain in the afternoon.
Tue..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.

ANZ500 946 Pm Est Thu Nov 30 2023
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay..
high pressure will continue to slide offshore tonight. Another frontal system and area of low pressure push through the area Friday into Saturday. A stronger frontal system looks to cross the waters Sunday into Monday. High pressure returns to the waters by the middle of next week. Small craft advisories may be needed Friday night due to southerly channeling.

FXUS61 KLWX 010221 AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 921 PM EST Thu Nov 30 2023

SYNOPSIS
High pressure moving offshore will keep us dry tonight. Rain chances return Friday as an area of low pressure approaches from the Ohio River Valley. Additional waves of low pressure look to bring excess cloud cover and precipitation chances to the region this weekend into early next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
High pressure is located off the east coast this evening with low pressure moving eastward from Oklahoma. Earlier high level clouds have departed for the time being except for a few transient patches. Locations maintaining a light south breeze remain in the mid 40s, while those that have become calm are dropping into the 30s. Expect some similar variability through the night although rising surface dew points place a bottom value in the upper 20s.

Expect mid and high clouds to thicken again toward daybreak. IAD and PBZ soundings both sampled 0.30 inch precipitable water this evening, and any precipitation should hold off until after sunrise. Still looking like temperatures will have opportunity to rise by that time, with only the smallest chance of a pocket of freezing rain in a deeper valley of western Maryland if precipitation ends up faster than currently expected.

SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
A complex low pressure system will move across the Midwest and Lower Great Lakes Friday into Friday night. A piece of energy from this system will move across our CWA Friday afternoon and evening and spread rain showers over a large portion of our area. Rain amounts should be light perhaps a quarter of an inch or less in most places. Rain may not start until late Friday morning in the west and then eventually reaching the metros by mid-afternoon Friday and continue off and on into Friday evening.
Once an affiliated front passes through, drier conditions will move in but could be short lived as the next of a series of mid- level disturbances move in later on Saturday. Friday's high temperatures will start in the middle 30s but are expected to warm up through the 40s into the lower 50s Friday afternoon.
Breezy conditions will accompany the rainfall Friday in the higher elevations, with gusts of 25-40 mph at times Friday afternoon and evening.

Drier conditions Friday night into Saturday as the best isentropic lift works north of the region. A southwest flow will continue aloft as broad upper level troughing remains over the central CONUS. We will keep a low end chance for showers in place over most of the forecast region with higher chances west of the Allegheny Front and to the south across the southern MD/northern neck of VA where better forcing resides. Cloud cover will also be in abundance with a notable warm surge as the warm front lifts in Saturday afternoon. High temperatures will push into the upper 50s and low to mid 60s. Lows Saturday night will fall into the mid to upper 40s and low 50s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A large trough will be diving into the Midwest Sunday, then pivoting over the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast Monday. At the surface, a primary low track across the lower Great Lakes looks most likely, with secondary cyclogenesis possible offshore of southern New England.
Without a cold airmass in place, precipitation type looks like rain, though a change to upslope snow showers is possible by Monday night along and west of the Allegheny Front. Upslope snow shower activity could linger Tuesday, though this is the most likely time for a lull.

A trailing trough looks to dive across the Ohio/Tennessee River Valleys Tuesday night, then move offshore of the Mid-Atlantic Wednesday. The placement of this trough, as well as ridging upstream over the Rockies (with an axis through Idaho) and downstream ridging near Greenland would favor unsettled weather locally. However, the favorable ridge/trough/ridge configuration is transient, lasting only 6-12 hours, so things would have to come together just right for a more impactful storm east of the mountains. There may be enough cold air in place for wintry precipitation types, however, so this period will require close monitoring.

Another period of upslope snow showers is possible into Thursday.
Otherwise, cooler than normal temperatures and blustery conditions are anticipated areawide as the trough moves away.

AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
High pressure remains in control tonight with mid and high level clouds increasing toward daybreak. Removed LLWS from the TAFs since forecast soundings did not show a critical shear layer, and with peak winds in the sfc-2kft layer of 30-35 kt, it did not appear to meet the threshold for inclusion.

An area of low pressure will move to the north and west of the area Friday into Friday night. Light rain and lower ceilings will overspread the area during the afternoon. MVFR will be the most likely category, although there is a 40 percent or lower chance of IFR ceilings toward the evening hours. There is also a chance of LLWS during the afternoon and evening as winds in the 1-2kft layer increase to 35-45 kt. However the wind profile is unidirectional and a lack of a critical layer may mean changes of wind with height are more gradual. Rain will likely depart during the evening, and the low ceilings may follow suit. If so, this may allow some fog to form late Friday night.

Sub-VFR conditions will remain possible at times Saturday as additional waves of low pressure push through. Winds will remain out of the south and southwest Saturday with gusts under 10kts.
Higher gusts are likely at terminals along and west of the Allegheny Front.

Sub-VFR conditions are likely Sunday as low pressure and associated rain showers/lower CIGs move across the region. Modest clearing and blustery W/NW winds are anticipated Monday.

MARINE
Marginal SCA conditions are occurring over the open waters this evening with some southerly channeling. Winds should peak over the next few hours before declining late tonight. The Small Craft Advisory is in effect through 3 AM.

Additional SCAs are possible Friday afternoon into Friday night as an area low pressure moves north and west of the waters.
However, this looks marginal at best, so confidence in needing an advisory is low. Sub-SCA level winds are expected on Saturday. Winds will remain out the south Saturday.

Low pressure is likely to move near or over the area Sunday into Sunday night. Southerly flow ahead of the low could approach SCA levels late Sunday, with gusty W/NW winds likely on Monday.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EST Friday for ANZ531>534-537- 539>543.

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Massaponax
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Thu -- 04:13 AM EST     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:06 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:01 AM EST     2.29 feet High Tide
Thu -- 10:26 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 04:01 PM EST     0.01 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:49 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:37 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 09:11 PM EST     2.62 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Massaponax, Rappahannock River, Virginia, Tide feet

Fredericksburg
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Thu -- 03:57 AM EST     -0.09 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:06 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:10 AM EST     2.63 feet High Tide
Thu -- 10:26 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 03:45 PM EST     0.01 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:49 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:37 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 09:20 PM EST     2.99 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Fredericksburg, Rappahannock River, Virginia, Tide feet

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