Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Mineral, VA

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
After the round of severe wx this afternoon and evening, attention turns to the next possible round of severe wx overnight. Let me preface this with there continues to be uncertainties with how strong any storms may be as they move into the area during the night. Latest radar imagery shows severe and tornado warned storms across the Ohio Valley. Most model guidance has these congealing into several linear features that eventually move eastward. Since we won't have our daytime heating, the severity could be diminished some, but the humidity, nearby trough, approaching cold front on Saturday could be enough to make it interesting in terms of severe elements overnight. Will continue to evolve latest trends. Key message now, prepare for the potential for watches and/or warnings overnight should they be needed.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
A cold front will approach and push across the region early in the day Saturday. There had previously been a risk for severe weather during the first half of the day on Saturday. However, this threat has diminished significantly today. Thinking is that the multiple rounds of convection, especially the overnight round (severe or not) should help to kick out any lingering outflow boundaries from the region. The air mass will not have time to reload before the fropa during the morning, thus thinking any coverage of showers/storms will be very limited.
Best chance for any severe weather looks to be off to our south and east, where the fropa won't occur until early-mid afternoon.

High temperatures will remain warm with highs in the middle to upper 80s Saturday. The big difference will be a 10+ degree dew point drop, so it will be much less humid.

Once the front pushes through the region on Saturday, winds pick up substantially out of the W, then WNW. Wind Advisories will be issued shortly for the high ridges along the Allegheny Front through Saturday afternoon. Winds remain elevated Saturday night into Sunday as well, but the extent of the Wind Advisory is just a bit uncertain at this time. It may need to be extended further in time, but later shifts can re-evaluate that threat.

Drier and cooler air will filter in during this window. Highs Sunday will be more likely in the middle 70s and seasonable for mid-May.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
The synoptic pattern will remain on the amplified side heading into next week. To start off the work week, the initial system that tracked through the Great Lakes over the weekend will have relocated to coastal New England. At the same time, an anomalous upper ridge centered over the Gulf of America will build northward as the next system sets up over the central U.S. This overall configuration will support a quiet start to the week. It is not until the influence of the upstream trough that a pattern shift ensues. At this point, Wednesday will act as that day of transition which ushers in a more unsettled pattern. Eventually this upper trough passes overhead toward the Thursday into Friday time period next week.

The start of the work week will feature the mildest temperatures of the extended forecast period. Multi-ensemble forecast trends show the downtick in temperatures, particularly in the Tuesday through Friday timeframe. While starting off in the mid 70s to low 80s underneath mostly sunny skies, winds shift to mainly easterly leading to an increase in cloud cover by Tuesday. By Wednesday, highs fall down into the mid 60s to low 70s with rain looking likely through the day. Given precipitable water values possibly into the 1.25 to 1.50 inch range, there could easily be some heavy rain signatures. With a number of locations receiving flooding rains earlier this week, there could be some risk of additional flooding given such antecedent conditions in place.

Temperatures remain below average through the remainder of the work week as the upper trough passes through. Thursday would present a chance for some residual showers before improvements occur by Friday. This would offer a return to some sunshine before the conclusion of the work week.

AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Another round of thunderstorms could arrive late tonight into Saturday morning. This round has the most uncertainty at this point. An MCS moving in from the Ohio Valley may make it into our region late this evening into tonight night. This could be yet another risk for damaging wind gusts, but the timing and certainty of occurrence is still just not quite there yet. So, will hopefully have more details as this moves into the TAF period.

There may be a few storms ahead of a frontal passage on Saturday as well, which could also contain gusty winds, but think this will be east of any of our terminals. Once the front passes though, winds increase substantially out of the W at around 20 to 30 knots. This could continue into Sunday, albeit a touch lighter.

VFR conditions are expected Sunday into the start of next week as high pressure maintains control across the region.

VFR conditions are likely on Monday and Tuesday in response to high pressure across the region. Initial winds will be northwesterly with afternoon gusts to around 20 knots. By Tuesday, expect a shift to northerlies and eventually over to north-northeasterlies by later in the day. Moving to an onshore flow regime may introduce additional clouds into the night. This leads to an unsettled pattern on Wednesday with lengthy restrictions expected. Periods of rain are expected with easterlies gusting to around 15 to 20 knots.

MARINE
Another chance for severe weather looks to push through late tonight through early Saturday. Timing and location of yet another MCS approaching from the west is still very uncertain, but conditions will be favorable for damaging wind gusts if this does traverse the mountains and make it to the waters. SMWs would likely also be needed if this feature tracks directly over our area.

There may be a few storms ahead of a frontal passage on Saturday as well, which could also contain gusty winds. This should push through rather early on in the day, giving way to drier and windy conditions in its wake. Severe threat with this round has decreased greatly, but best chance would be in the central/southern Chesapeake Bay waters. SCA conditions likely on Saturday and Sunday as winds gust around 20-25 knots across all the waters.
High pressure settles overhead Sunday night into Monday, bringing sub-SCA winds.

There may be a brief window of advisory-caliber winds on Monday morning given breezy northwesterlies. Through the day, some occasional upticks are possible before gradients weaken in response to high pressure building to the north. Winds turn more north to easterly on Tuesday ahead of the next weather maker.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Saturday for MDZ008.
VA...Wind Advisory from 10 AM Saturday to 2 AM EDT Sunday for VAZ503.
WV...Wind Advisory from 10 AM Saturday to 2 AM EDT Sunday for WVZ501-505.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ530>543.