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Marine Weather and Tides Mineral, VA Version 3.4

NOTICE 12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed. 10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones. 9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them. 7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

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Sunrise 5:46AM

Sunset 8:28PM

Sunday May 31, 2020 4:31 PM EDT (20:31 UTC)

Moonrise 1:38PM

Moonset 1:46AM

Illumination 73%

NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mineral, VA

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Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington

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FXUS61 KLWX 311859 AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 259 PM EDT Sun May 31 2020

SYNOPSIS. High pressure over the Great Lakes builds eastward through Tuesday. Low pressure passing north of the Great Lakes will aim to lift a warm front through the area during the middle portion of the week. A cold front will approach the region thereafter before stalling in the region as we head into next weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. High pressure has migrated over the lower Great Lakes region this afternoon as a cold front sits off the Southeast coast. Locally, a mix of clouds and sun overspreads the CWA as a cold air advection regime as allowed for fair weather cumulus clouds to developed area wide. With a northerly breeze gusting 15 to 20 mph at times, temperatures are hovering in the low to middle 70s with dewpoints quite comfortable in the 40s.

Dry and mostly clear conditions expected to persist overnight as the aforementioned high continues to build eastward into the region. Northerly winds will slacken by this evening, remaining light overnight, as clear and seasonably chilly conditions prevail. Lows by daybreak will drop into the 40s for much of the area, with lower 50s holding on in the cities, while upper 30s will be possible in the higher elevations of the Allegheny Mountains.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/. The high moves atop the Mid-Atlantic on Monday with continued dry conditions and temperatures still running several degrees below normal in the low to middle 70s. Plenty of sunshine can be expected as light winds trend out of the west northwest. Clouds increase Monday night as we start to warm advect aloft and a weakening shortwave drops southeastward from the Great Lakes. Have low end chance POPs across the Potomac Highlands late Monday night, with a dry forecast elsewhere. Lows Monday night generally in the 50s.

By Tuesday, the surface high shifts off the coast, turning winds more southerly and allowing for an increase in temperatures and moisture. As temperatures rise to near normal levels for early June, dewpoints will tick upwards through the 50s, nearing 60 degrees across central Virginia. While we will be lacking any strong lifting mechanism, a warm front will be approaching to our west southwest. We will continue to advertise a chance of an afternoon shower or storm, mainly along and north of the Potomac River. Surface low pressure and associated shortwave drops southeastward once again from the eastern Great Lakes Tuesday night as we reside on the eastern periphery of an upper level ridge. This could deliver weakening showers/storms sinking southward from Pennsylvania overnight Tuesday, but again, no more than low end chance POPs exists at this time along and north of the Potomac. Lows Tuesday night will be mild in the 60s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. A warm front will push east of the area Wednesday with temperatures climbing into the 90s. Models show a maximum in sfc to 850 mb dewpoints over the area at 18Z. With all the the heat and humidity, there will be a concern for t-storms. Forcing over our area does not look particularly strong with only weak height falls indicated and no sfc boundaries present, however, models have a strong signal for one or more clusters of t-storms over ern OH and PA Wed afternoon, which would likely be severe given presence of strong westerlies (50+kt at 500 mb over PA). Outflows or cold pools generated by upstream convection may serve as trigger for additional/new convection over the area. In summary, significant uncertainty remains with respect to strength and timing of any convection Wed afternoon/night.

The front will be slow to clear the area Thu before it washes out Fri. Risk of showers/t-storms will persist Thu, especially over central Virginia. Another front is expected to cross the area Sat. The quality of moisture return ahead of this front remains uncertain this far out, but there seems to be some consensus for improving wx/drying conditions toward the end of this week or the beginning of next week.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Northwesterly breezes will relax this afternoon and evening as high pressure to our west nudges closer. Light winds and VFR conditions will prevail through the overnight hours. The high settles overhead on Monday and Monday night, with light west northwesterly winds and dry conditions. The high migrates off the coast Tuesday and Tuesday night, turning winds southerly and bringing an increase in temperatures/moisture. This will bring a chance for afternoon/evening showers and isolated thunderstorms. A brief episode of sub-VFR conditions are possible with any encounter, but overall VFR conditions are expected.

Most likely VFR most of the time Wednesday and Thursday. A back door cold front could try to bring lower cigs on Thursday, but uncertainty here is high. Otherwise, main concern will be potential for scattered thunderstorms.

MARINE. Small Craft Advisory has dropped for all waters except the northern portion of the Chesapeake Bay as winds will remain near threshold Advisory levels into this evening. A surge of northerly gusts up to 20 knots is expected this evening and overnight as cold air advection brings in cooler air than water temperatures, so mixing seems likely over the main stem of the Bay with northerly channeling. As such, have issued a Small Craft Advisory for these areas overnight.

High pressure builds over the waters Monday and Monday night with lighter west northwesterly breezes. The high shifts offshore Tuesday, as winds turn out of the south, but remain below SCA thresholds through Tuesday night. A chance of thunderstorms will exist late Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night, mainly across the northern Bay, and could pose an isolated threat for locally gusty winds over the waters.

Warm air over cool waters should help keep winds below SCA thresholds Wednesday and Thursday. Main concern will be risk of scattered thunderstorms both days.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. DC . None. MD . None. VA . None. WV . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Monday for ANZ530-531-538- 539. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM EDT Monday for ANZ534-537-543. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 AM EDT Monday for ANZ532-533-540-541.

SYNOPSIS . BKF NEAR TERM . BKF SHORT TERM . BKF LONG TERM . LFR AVIATION . BKF/RCM MARINE . BKF/RCM

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
NCDV2	42 mi	50 min	NNW 8 G 12	73°F	72°F		1018.9 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD	65 mi	44 min	NW 14 G 18
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA	68 mi	44 min	E 8.9 G 12	68°F	72°F		1019.2 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC	68 mi	44 min	NW 7 G 14	72°F	74°F		1019.6 hPa

Wind History for Piney Point, MD

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Louisa, Louisa County Airport/Freeman Field, VA	13 mi	37 min	NW 4	10.00 mi	Fair	73°F	46°F	39%	1021 hPa
Orange, Orange County Airport, VA	20 mi	37 min	N 0	10.00 mi	Partly Cloudy	72°F	44°F	38%	1019.6 hPa
Fredericksburg, Shannon Airport, VA	22 mi	37 min	N 4	10.00 mi	Partly Cloudy	74°F	48°F	40%	1019.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KLKU

Wind History from LKU (wind in knots)

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N5

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Tide / Current Tables for Massaponax, Rappahannock River, Virginia

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Tide / Current Tables for Fredericksburg, Rappahannock River, Virginia

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (16,3,4,5)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Sterling, VA

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