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Marine Weather and Tides Mineral, VA Version 3.4

NOTICE 8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it. 8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue. 12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed. 10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones. 9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them. 7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

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Sunrise 7:03AM

Sunset 4:52PM

Friday November 27, 2020 6:31 PM EST (23:31 UTC)

Moonrise 3:37PM

Moonset 4:18AM

Illumination 94%

NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mineral, VA

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Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington

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FXUS61 KLWX 271933 AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 233 PM EST Fri Nov 27 2020

SYNOPSIS.

Weak high pressure remains situated over our region this afternoon. A weak cold front will pass through our region on Saturday with high pressure returning for the second half of the weekend. A strong system will impact our region late Sunday through early Tuesday. High pressure builds into our region from the south Tuesday through the middle parts of next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/.

Weak high pressure is stretched over the the Northeastern US and parts of the mid-Atlantic this afternoon which has led to a very weak flow throughout our region. A weak disturbance aloft has kept skies mostly cloudy this afternoon. Current temperatures are running in the mid to upper 50s to lower 60s and I don't expect temperatures rise no more than one to two degrees over the next few hours. Overnight lows should be slightly cooler in the 30s and low 40s but will be limited from falling further due to lingering overnight clouds.

A weak cold front will pass through our region on Saturday. Moisture will be limited with this frontal passage and the wind shift be minimal behind the front. After the front passes through our region Saturday afternoon, skies will slowly clear with stronger high pressure building into our region from lower midwest and Tennessee River Valley. A brief surge of winds will be possible with the frontal passage with gusts of 15 to 25 knots possible Saturday afternoon. Little to no precipitation is expected for the majority of our region but some isolated to scattered upslope precipitation will be possible along and west of the Allegheny Front. Daytime high temperatures on Saturday will be cooler in the mid to upper 50s. High pressure will move overhead of our region Saturday evening which will lead to clear skies and light winds overnight and into Sunday morning. The coldest temps of the weekend will occur Saturday evening with overnight lows in the low to mid 30s.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/.

Weak upper level ridging will be in place over our region on Sunday with high pressure slowly shifting eastward out of our region later in the day. Clear skies along with light winds will continue through Sunday afternoon. The main change in the winds will be a slight shift out of the south but moisture transport should be minimal. Daytime temperatures will be similar to Saturday if not slightly cooler due to a lower morning start than the previous two days.

The weather pattern starts to change late Saturday afternoon and into Saturday evening. High pressure shifts off the coast and winds become more southeasterly. A strong frontal system will approach our region from the southwest Saturday evening. An upper level trough will move through parts of the southern US while a surface low slowly moves northeastward along the western side of the Appalachians. A secondary low is forecast to form off the east coast and move eastward early on Monday. The low moving along the Appalachians is forecast to occlude toward the upper level low and a triple point low will form as the system approaches our region. Precipitation associated with this system will start to impact our region after 00z Monday and widespread precipitation is forecast by 12Z. There remains some uncertainty on the timing and position of the multiple lows but a threat for strong gusty and thunderstorms will continue to be possible on Monday.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/.

More agreement beginning to churn on the location of the cutoff low that will be impacting the area by late Sunday night into early Monday morning. Most models are agreeing on the center of the low to be over the WV/OH border by 12z Monday. Any variations in the dynamics of this system could cause a major shift in the forecast. For now, expect the likelihood for heavy rain and isolated instances of damaging winds possible Monday during the afternoon and early evening. Surface convective instability remains questionable at this point for the potential for thunderstorms. Given the chance for strengthening low and mid-level wind fields during the time period, expect gusty winds to be our main concern for Monday into early Tuesday. Flooding concerns remain low at this time given the speed of this system with QPF values only reaching around 1.25" for a 36 hour timeframe.

Upslope snow threat for along and west of the Allegheny Front will be the main concern after the low moves off and backside cold air moves in. This will continue from around Monday night until possibly Wednesday morning, confidence in duration and intensity is low at this time with respect to wintry impacts for those particular areas. On Monday, temperatures will be the warmest for the extended period at around 60F with this surge of moisture from the SSW keeping us in a warm, unstable pattern. Conditions should dry out for most of the area (aside from wintry precip for the western zones) Tuesday into Thursday with high pressure building in from the deep south. After the low passes on Monday night/Tuesday morning, we will see temperatures drop into the low to mid 40s for most of the workweek with overnight lows possibly getting to at or below freezing. Our western zones will be a few degrees colder for the duration, allowing for the chance for the wintry precip to occur at higher elevations.

AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/.

VFR conditions expected through Sunday. Winds will remain light out of the west to northwest through Saturday with a brief period of 15 to 25 knots gusts Saturday afternoon behind a weak front. High pressure will return for the second half off the weekend with light winds continue through Sunday. A strong surface low will start to impact all terminals early Monday morning. As rain moves into our region, some MVFR conditions can't be ruled out early Monday morning but there remains some uncertainty at this time.

Sub-VFR conditions expected most of Monday with gusty winds (25-30 knots). Ceilings and visibility restrictions within heavier pockets of rain, leading to some instances of IFR conditions. We'll remain windy for Tuesday after low pressure passes.

MARINE.

SubSCA conditions expected through the rest of today but low end small craft winds will be possible Saturday afternoon as a front moves through our marines areas. SubSCA return Saturday evening and into Sunday. A strong system will impact our marine areas early Monday morning.

SCAs and Gales possible Monday with low pressure passing through our waters. Winds will shift from the southeast to westerly by late Monday night. SCAs likely to remain through Tuesday behind the passing low.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING.

Strong onshore flow Monday into Monday night may lead to minor coastal flooding.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. DC . None. MD . None. VA . None. WV . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . JMG NEAR TERM . RCM/JMG SHORT TERM . JMG LONG TERM . ADM AVIATION . JMG/ADM MARINE . RCM/BRO/JMG/ADM TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING .

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
NCDV2	42 mi	50 min	WSW 1.9 G 1.9	55°F	55°F		1015.5 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD	65 mi	44 min	NE 4.1 G 5.1
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA	68 mi	44 min	N 2.9 G 4.1	56°F	55°F		1016 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC	68 mi	44 min	Calm G 1	58°F	51°F		1016.5 hPa

Wind History for Piney Point, MD

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12 AM

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Last 24hr

NE5

NE3

S3

N7 G15

N7 G11

N6

N5

N1

NE3

N4

W2

NE2

NW3

N1

NW2

NW5

NW6

NW4

NW4

W1 G5

NW7

NW6 G9

N4

NE3

1 day ago

SE5

SE4

SE7

SE4

S12

S13 G16

S13 G16

S12 G15

S13 G17

S14 G17

S12 G15

S12 G15

SW14

SW12

SW13 G17

SW15

SW11 G15

SW12 G22

SW10 G14

W5 G8

W7

NW7

N4

W1

2 days ago

SE8

S7

S9

S10 G13

S11 G14

S11

S11

S10

S11 G14

S10 G13

S11

S11 G15

SW12

SW10

SW7

S11

SW9

SW10 G13

SW12 G15

SW8

SW3

S6

SE9

SE6

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Louisa, Louisa County Airport/Freeman Field, VA	13 mi	37 min	N 0	10.00 mi	Overcast	53°F	49°F	88%	1017.6 hPa
Orange, Orange County Airport, VA	20 mi	37 min	N 0	10.00 mi	Overcast	55°F	46°F	72%	1016.6 hPa
Fredericksburg, Shannon Airport, VA	22 mi	37 min	N 0	10.00 mi	Overcast	59°F	48°F	68%	1016.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KLKU

Wind History from LKU (wind in knots)

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Last 24hr

NE3

E4

SE3

NE6

NE4

NE4

NE3

Calm

NE4

NE3

N3

W3

N4

N5

NE6

N6

NE6

NE6

N5

NE3

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NE3

Calm

Calm

1 day ago

Calm

Calm

Calm

SE4

S4

Calm

Calm

Calm

SW5

W4

SW4

S3

SW5

S6

SW10

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W9

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SW7

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SW3

N4

NE3

2 days ago

SE4

SE4

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SE5

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SE3

SE5

S6

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S4

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S5

S5

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SW9

S6

S4

S4

S4

Calm

Calm

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Tide / Current Tables for Massaponax, Rappahannock River, Virginia

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Tide / Current Tables for Fredericksburg, Rappahannock River, Virginia

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Ground Weather Radar Station Sterling, VA

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