Saturday, January23, 2021
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L-36.com

Marine Weather and Tides
Mineral, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:19AMSunset 5:23PM Saturday January 23, 2021 5:58 PM EST (22:58 UTC) Moonrise 1:07PMMoonset 2:53AM Illumination 80% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ536 Tidal Potomac From Indian Head To Cobb Island- 342 Pm Est Sat Jan 23 2021
.small craft advisory in effect until 6 pm est this evening...
Rest of this afternoon..NW winds 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Tonight..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Sun night..SE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon..E winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain.
Mon night..E winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Rain.
Tue..N winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Wed..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of snow through the night.
ANZ500 342 Pm Est Sat Jan 23 2021
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure over the midwest will build eastward through the weekend. Low pressure will impact the region early next week. Small craft advisories will likely be needed for portions of the waters through the weekend. Small craft advisories may be needed Monday into Tuesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mineral, VA
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location: 38.06, -77.75     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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FXUS61 KLWX 232023 AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 323 PM EST Sat Jan 23 2021

SYNOPSIS.

High pressure will build overhead tonight. The high will move offshore later Sunday and low pressure will approach Monday before passing through Monday night and Tuesday. Weak high pressure may briefly return Wednesday, but another low may impact the area Thursday before high pressure returns for late next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/.

Very cold tonight with diminishing winds, clear skies, and very dry (modified Arctic) air mass. Lows will range from the single digits in the mtns to the teens and twenties elsewhere with sub-zero wind chills in the mtns and teens elsewhere.

Increasing clouds tomorrow due to warm air advection. Not as cold and with less wind. Guidance show some very light snow developing over the mtns late tomorrow afternoon into the evening that eventually falls apart as it moves east. It looks uneventful late tomorrow night with no precip, just clouds.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/.

12Z model cycle has trended slower moving low pressure east of the mid MS and OH valleys Mon night and into the Mid-Atlc Tue. This has resulted in a later onset of wintry precip over the area on Mon with much of the precip not starting until after 18Z. While there isn't a classic cold air damming signature with this precip event, there will be in-situ damming, where precip falling over initially very dry (modified Arctic) air mass strengthens the wedge and brings sfc temps at or below freezing. Of greatest concern is potential for significant ice accumulations on Skyline Drive and west of I-81 where model soundings show a deep subfreezing layer and 925 temps between 0 and -2C. Deep moisture and strong forcing for ascent arrive into the area Mon with a heavy cold rain east of the Blue Ridge and south of I-70 and potentially significant ice accretion for the higher elevs. A Winter Storm Watch will likely be issued for those areas early on Monday. Mid-level dry slot will start working into the area late Mon night, but light precip will likely persist through Tue morning due to easterly convergent flow until low pressure exits the area late Tue.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/.

Active pattern continues throughout the long term period. Tuesday is more of a transition day as low pressure slowly exits offshore. Guidance indicates that the core of the low still remains back over the OH/WV border by Tuesday afternoon, which would allow lingering precip to persist into the first half of Wednesday. As the low shifts east, it also may pull some colder air in from the north back into the northernmost parts of the CWA, which may result in some freezing drizzle or a light wintry mix. Temperature profile Tuesday remains cold, with daytime temps remaining stuck in the mid to upper 30s for most with near freezing temps along the Mason Dixon line, in the higher elevations, and possibly valley areas where cold air typically likes to pool.

Conditions improve on Wednesday especially during the afternoon with the low offshore. However we'll continue to watch another system for Thursday which may bring another round of wintry precip to the area. As of now, there remains a lot of spread amongst guidance and their ensembles. With a positive AO and positively trending EPO, coupled with a negative PNA and NAO, results in a higher chance for a more zonal pattern. With that being said, seems logical that low pressure would be more suppressed to our south. However will continue to monitor forecast trends over the next several days.

Dry and more seasonable conditions are likely towards the end of next week.

AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/.

Diminishing winds tonight, but with less winds tomorrow. IFR conditions developing Mon afternoon with mixed precipitation likely at KMRB, KCHO, and possibly BWI, and IAD. Rain should be the dominant p-type at DCA. Flight restrictions will likely persist through Tue.

CIG/VSBY restrictions are likely to continue on Tuesday and possibly through Wednesday morning as low pressure slowly exits offshore. VFR conditions return Wednesday. We'll continue to monitor another area of low pressure on Thursday which bring another round of wintry precip across the terminals. However confidence remains low at this time.

MARINE.

Diminishing winds tonight, but SCA conditions likely persisting through Sunday. Light winds Sun night through mid week.

SCA conditions are likely next Thu.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. DC . None. MD . None. VA . None. WV . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until noon EST Sunday for ANZ530>534- 537>543. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ535- 536.

SYNOPSIS . LFR NEAR TERM . LFR SHORT TERM . LFR LONG TERM . MSS AVIATION . MSS/LFR MARINE . MSS/LFR


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NCDV2 42 mi65 min NW 6 G 9.9 41°F1024.2 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 65 mi65 min NNW 17 G 21
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 68 mi65 min NNW 11 G 16 40°F1024.5 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 68 mi65 min NW 8.9 G 16 40°F1025.1 hPa

Wind History for Piney Point, MD
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Louisa, Louisa County Airport/Freeman Field, VA13 mi64 minNE 610.00 miFair34°F9°F35%1025.4 hPa
Orange, Orange County Airport, VA20 mi64 minENE 510.00 miFair32°F10°F40%1024.4 hPa
Fredericksburg, Shannon Airport, VA22 mi64 minNNW 710.00 miFair35°F11°F37%1024.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KLKU

Wind History from LKU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN7N6NE5NE4CalmSW3CalmCalmCalmSW3W3CalmNE5N5N6N9N14
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1 day agoSW6SW6W7W7SW6SW5SW5SW4SW5SW4SW4SW4SW3SW5SW6SW6SW6W9
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2 days agoN5NE3CalmCalmCalmSE5S4SE4S4S5S3S4S4CalmS3SW4SW8SW9SW8W9
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Tide / Current Tables for Massaponax, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Massaponax
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:51 AM EST     1.95 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:52 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 07:21 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:19 AM EST     0.04 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 01:04 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 03:04 PM EST     2.26 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:22 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 10:36 PM EST     0.12 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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11.51.821.81.40.90.50.200.10.41.11.72.12.32.21.81.410.60.30.20.1

Tide / Current Tables for Fredericksburg, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Fredericksburg
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:52 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 03:01 AM EST     2.24 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:21 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:03 AM EST     0.04 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 01:04 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 03:13 PM EST     2.58 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:22 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 10:20 PM EST     0.13 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.21.72.12.22.11.610.50.200.10.61.322.42.62.52.11.61.10.60.30.10.2

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station




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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.