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Marine Weather and Tides Mineral, VA Version 3.4

NOTICE 8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it. 8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue. 12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed. 10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones. 9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them. 7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

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Sunrise 7:19AM

Sunset 5:23PM

Saturday January 23, 2021 5:58 PM EST (22:58 UTC)

Moonrise 1:07PM

Moonset 2:53AM

Illumination 80%

NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mineral, VA

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Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington

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FXUS61 KLWX 232023 AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 323 PM EST Sat Jan 23 2021

SYNOPSIS.

High pressure will build overhead tonight. The high will move offshore later Sunday and low pressure will approach Monday before passing through Monday night and Tuesday. Weak high pressure may briefly return Wednesday, but another low may impact the area Thursday before high pressure returns for late next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/.

Very cold tonight with diminishing winds, clear skies, and very dry (modified Arctic) air mass. Lows will range from the single digits in the mtns to the teens and twenties elsewhere with sub-zero wind chills in the mtns and teens elsewhere.

Increasing clouds tomorrow due to warm air advection. Not as cold and with less wind. Guidance show some very light snow developing over the mtns late tomorrow afternoon into the evening that eventually falls apart as it moves east. It looks uneventful late tomorrow night with no precip, just clouds.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/.

12Z model cycle has trended slower moving low pressure east of the mid MS and OH valleys Mon night and into the Mid-Atlc Tue. This has resulted in a later onset of wintry precip over the area on Mon with much of the precip not starting until after 18Z. While there isn't a classic cold air damming signature with this precip event, there will be in-situ damming, where precip falling over initially very dry (modified Arctic) air mass strengthens the wedge and brings sfc temps at or below freezing. Of greatest concern is potential for significant ice accumulations on Skyline Drive and west of I-81 where model soundings show a deep subfreezing layer and 925 temps between 0 and -2C. Deep moisture and strong forcing for ascent arrive into the area Mon with a heavy cold rain east of the Blue Ridge and south of I-70 and potentially significant ice accretion for the higher elevs. A Winter Storm Watch will likely be issued for those areas early on Monday. Mid-level dry slot will start working into the area late Mon night, but light precip will likely persist through Tue morning due to easterly convergent flow until low pressure exits the area late Tue.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/.

Active pattern continues throughout the long term period. Tuesday is more of a transition day as low pressure slowly exits offshore. Guidance indicates that the core of the low still remains back over the OH/WV border by Tuesday afternoon, which would allow lingering precip to persist into the first half of Wednesday. As the low shifts east, it also may pull some colder air in from the north back into the northernmost parts of the CWA, which may result in some freezing drizzle or a light wintry mix. Temperature profile Tuesday remains cold, with daytime temps remaining stuck in the mid to upper 30s for most with near freezing temps along the Mason Dixon line, in the higher elevations, and possibly valley areas where cold air typically likes to pool.

Conditions improve on Wednesday especially during the afternoon with the low offshore. However we'll continue to watch another system for Thursday which may bring another round of wintry precip to the area. As of now, there remains a lot of spread amongst guidance and their ensembles. With a positive AO and positively trending EPO, coupled with a negative PNA and NAO, results in a higher chance for a more zonal pattern. With that being said, seems logical that low pressure would be more suppressed to our south. However will continue to monitor forecast trends over the next several days.

Dry and more seasonable conditions are likely towards the end of next week.

AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/.

Diminishing winds tonight, but with less winds tomorrow. IFR conditions developing Mon afternoon with mixed precipitation likely at KMRB, KCHO, and possibly BWI, and IAD. Rain should be the dominant p-type at DCA. Flight restrictions will likely persist through Tue.

CIG/VSBY restrictions are likely to continue on Tuesday and possibly through Wednesday morning as low pressure slowly exits offshore. VFR conditions return Wednesday. We'll continue to monitor another area of low pressure on Thursday which bring another round of wintry precip across the terminals. However confidence remains low at this time.

MARINE.

Diminishing winds tonight, but SCA conditions likely persisting through Sunday. Light winds Sun night through mid week.

SCA conditions are likely next Thu.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. DC . None. MD . None. VA . None. WV . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until noon EST Sunday for ANZ530>534- 537>543. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ535- 536.

SYNOPSIS . LFR NEAR TERM . LFR SHORT TERM . LFR LONG TERM . MSS AVIATION . MSS/LFR MARINE . MSS/LFR

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
NCDV2	42 mi	65 min	NW 6 G 9.9		41°F		1024.2 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD	65 mi	65 min	NNW 17 G 21
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA	68 mi	65 min	NNW 11 G 16		40°F		1024.5 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC	68 mi	65 min	NW 8.9 G 16		40°F		1025.1 hPa

Wind History for Piney Point, MD

(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help

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3 AM

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Last 24hr

N5

N10

N6

N10

N8

N7

N6

NW7

N11 G16

N9 G12

NW11 G15

NW13

N12

N9 G13

N18 G23

N22

N23

N23

NW21 G27

NW20 G27

NW20 G26

NW19 G23

NW18 G22

NW18 G22

1 day ago

SE4

SE4

W5

W7

W9

NW8

NW11

NW8

NW7

W2

W7 G10

N4

W4 G7

W8 G11

NW5

NW6

N5

N7

N8

N9

NW7

NW3

S1

E4

2 days ago

NW12 G15

N7

NE5 G8

NE2

N6

NE2

E3

NE2

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SE3

SE5

S12

S12 G15

S10

S10

SW7 G11

SW4

NW5

N2

NW4

N8

N8

N4

NW1

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Louisa, Louisa County Airport/Freeman Field, VA	13 mi	64 min	NE 6	10.00 mi	Fair	34°F	9°F	35%	1025.4 hPa
Orange, Orange County Airport, VA	20 mi	64 min	ENE 5	10.00 mi	Fair	32°F	10°F	40%	1024.4 hPa
Fredericksburg, Shannon Airport, VA	22 mi	64 min	NNW 7	10.00 mi	Fair	35°F	11°F	37%	1024.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KLKU

Wind History from LKU (wind in knots)

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Last 24hr

N7

N6

NE5

NE4

Calm

SW3

Calm

Calm

Calm

SW3

W3

Calm

NE5

N5

N6

N9

N14 G18

N10 G18

N7

NW10

NW7

NE4

N6

N5

1 day ago

SW6

SW6

W7

W7

SW6

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SW5

SW4

SW5

SW4

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SW3

SW5

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W9 G14

W8

W15 G23

W13 G21

W14 G23

NW10

W9

2 days ago

N5

NE3

Calm

Calm

Calm

SE5

S4

SE4

S4

S5

S3

S4

S4

Calm

S3

SW4

SW8

SW9

SW8

W9 G16

W8 G16

SW5

W9

W5

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Tide / Current Tables for Massaponax, Rappahannock River, Virginia

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Tide / Current Tables for Fredericksburg, Rappahannock River, Virginia

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Ground Weather Radar Station

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