Friday, December13, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Mineral, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:16AMSunset 4:51PM Friday December 13, 2019 9:54 PM EST (02:54 UTC) Moonrise 6:23PMMoonset 8:35AM Illumination 94% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ536 Tidal Potomac From Indian Head To Cobb Island- 938 Pm Est Fri Dec 13 2019
Rest of tonight..N winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Rain. Areas of fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft. Rain likely.
Sat night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun night..NE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon..SE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of rain.
Mon night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain likely.
Tue..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely through the day.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
ANZ500 938 Pm Est Fri Dec 13 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. Low pressure will move northward into the region tonight before moving off to the northeast Saturday. High pressure will briefly build overhead for Sunday before low pressure impacts the area Monday. The cold front associated with this low will pass through Tuesday. Small craft advisories may be needed Saturday through Sunday morning, and again on Tuesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mineral, VA
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location: 38.06, -77.75     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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FXUS61 KLWX 140240 AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 940 PM EST Fri Dec 13 2019

SYNOPSIS. Low pressure will move north up the East Coast tonight and Saturday. High pressure will return briefly on Sunday before another system potentially affects the region Monday into Tuesday. Cold high pressure will then follow for the middle of next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/.

Currently, much of the area is in a bit of lull in terms of precipitation. As the precipitation has moved out, dense fog has formed with a saturated layer near the ground. A Dense Fog Advisory has been issued through midnight to account for this fog. Will have to evaluate whether or not to extend this overnight, but the expectation is that as another area of rain moves in from the south, that will help to scour out the fog partially, leading to slightly higher visibilities. Think that fog will still be possible, if not likely, but do not expect much sub quarter mile fog after the rain moves back in.

Synoptically speaking, the mid-upper level trough associated with this system is in the process of taking on a negative tilt as the trough axis swings through the lower MS/TN river valleys. An area of precipitation has developed within the right entrance of a meridionally oriented jet streak located downstream of the trough axis. The bulk of the precipitation with this round looks as though it will stay to the east of the Blue Ridge, but intermittent showers will still be possible to the west of the Blue Ridge, where they'll be under the jet core (as opposed to the right entrance region). Temperatures are still holding at or slightly above freezing across far northwestern portions of the forecast area. With little precipitation ongoing there currently and temperatures expected to rise overnight, the Winter Weather Advisory has been allowed to expire.

The area of precipitation in the jet entrance region is expected to move out of the area by morning. There may be a lull in the precipitation across the area very late tonight into early tomorrow morning. Much like what happened this evening, there is some concern that when the rain shuts off, dense fog will form with a saturated lower atmosphere and light winds at the surface. We will monitor this potential through the remainder of the night.

The main upper trough will swing overhead tomorrow. Precipitation is expected to redevelop in the zone of differential cyclonic vorticity advection just downstream of the trough axis around daybreak across far southwestern portions of the area, then translate northeastward across the area through the morning to early afternoon hours. As the rain moves overhead once again, this should limit the fog potential. Rain is expected to move out of the area by around mid-afternoon. Upslope precipitation should develop along the Allegheny Front during the late afternoon hours as gusty WNW winds surge into the area in the wake of the system. These upslope showers may begin to changeover to snow by late afternoon or early evening as cold air filters in behind the system. Elsewhere, dry conditions are expected during the late afternoon and evening hours, although winds will become gusty during the afternoon.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/. Rain will start to diminish after 18Z and be fully out of our region by 00Z Sunday other than some upslope induced rain and snow showers. A westerly flow will form as the surface low pressure system lifts to our northeast. The westerly flow will lead to upslope showers over the western parts of the Allegheny Mountain range with some these showers falling as snow. Currently we have portions of the elevations receiving up to a few inches of snow. The upslope induced showers should diminish by Sunday morning

High pressure will briefly build over our region late Saturday and through Sunday. Should become mostly clear on Sunday with some mid to high level clouds lingering along the Allegheny Mountain range. Temperatures will be warmer in the 40s to low 50s during the day with cooler temps in the 30s for Sunday night.

A warm front will lift through our region late Sunday into early Monday. The shield of precipitation associated with this boundary will start to affect our area late Sunday evening with outer portions of the DC metro near Sunrise on Monday. Areas north and west of the I-95 corridor may experience periods of wintry mix in the form of rain and snow with best areas for snow being northern Maryland, Norther Virginia and West Virginia. Any wintry mix will depend on the temperatures Monday morning and the timing of the precipitation.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Low pressure moving from the mid MS valley through the OH valley Sunday into Monday will bring another threat of overrunning precip. Some light mixed p-type is possible at onset, but with sfc and 850 mb low centers passing well northwest of the area, expect bulk of the precip to fall as rain with only light wintry precip possible. Cdfnt will cross the area Tue afternoon with rain/showers ending with frontal passage. Winds begin to increase Mon night from the SSW and then increase further on Tue from the NW as pres gradient tightens between low pressure offshore and building high pressure from the west. Think gales are possible, but wind advisory headlines appear unlikely at this time. Much quieter wx pattern sets up for the rest of next week but with more seasonable cool temperatures for mid to late Dec with highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s.

AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. As rain moved out this afternoon, areas of dense fog and low ceilings have developed, leading to LIFR and VLIFR conditions at most of the terminals. As rain moves back into the terminals over the next few hours, the expectation is that at least visibility may improve slightly, but CIGS are expected to remain low through the night and into tomorrow morning. Visibility may drop once again during a lull in the precipitation early tomorrow morning, before a final round of precipitation crosses the terminals from mid-morning through the early afternoon hours. Conditions should improve to VFR through the afternoon, and winds will shift to out of the WNW and become gusty at times during the late afternoon hours.

More rain is expected late Sunday into Tuesday with some very light wintry precip possible at onset, but bulk of precip should be rain. Gusty winds Mon night and then windy Tue with gusts to 35 kt possible.

MARINE. Small Craft Craft advisories arent expected through Saturday morning. As the surface low pulls off to the north, winds will pick up over the waters. Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed for Saturday afternoon through Sunday afternoon.

Small Craft Advzy conditions likely Monday afternoon and night with gales possible Tuesday. Continued SCA conditions likely through the middle of next week.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. DC . Dense Fog Advisory until midnight EST tonight for DCZ001. MD . Dense Fog Advisory until midnight EST tonight for MDZ003>006- 011-013-014-503>508. VA . Dense Fog Advisory until midnight EST tonight for VAZ025>031- 036>040-050>054-501-502-505>508. WV . Dense Fog Advisory until midnight EST tonight for WVZ051>053. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . JMG NEAR TERM . KJP SHORT TERM . JMG LONG TERM . LFR/JMG AVIATION . LFR/KJP MARINE . LFR/JMG


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NCDV2 42 mi60 min NW 4.1 G 6 41°F 46°F1011.9 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 65 mi60 min NW 8.9 G 9.9
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 68 mi60 min NNW 5.1 G 6 47°F 43°F1011.7 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 68 mi60 min NW 2.9 G 4.1 41°F 43°F1013.4 hPa

Wind History for Piney Point, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Louisa, Louisa County Airport/Freeman Field, VA13 mi59 minN 70.75 miLight Rain Fog/Mist37°F36°F100%1014.2 hPa
Orange, Orange County Airport, VA20 mi59 minNNE 64.00 miFog/Mist36°F35°F100%1013.5 hPa
Fredericksburg, Shannon Airport, VA22 mi59 minNNW 32.50 miRain38°F37°F100%1013.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KLKU

Wind History from LKU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE3CalmCalmCalmCalmNW5NW6N4N4N5NE4N4N5N6N4N5N6N5NE6N6N5N5N7N6
1 day agoE3N5NE3NE5CalmCalmN4CalmNE3E4CalmNE5E6E6----S5E4E4CalmE3E4E3E3
2 days agoW5NW6W6NW7NE8N5N3NW5NW3NW4CalmNW4NW8W10
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Tide / Current Tables for Massaponax, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Massaponax
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:55 AM EST     -0.12 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:17 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:34 AM EST     2.22 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:34 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 02:39 PM EST     -0.09 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:49 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 06:21 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:37 PM EST     2.69 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.3-0-0.10.211.72.22.21.91.510.50.2-0-0.10.31.122.62.72.421.4

Tide / Current Tables for Fredericksburg, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Fredericksburg
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:39 AM EST     -0.13 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:17 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:43 AM EST     2.54 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:35 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 02:23 PM EST     -0.10 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:49 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 06:21 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:46 PM EST     3.08 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.70.2-0.1-0.10.31.222.52.52.31.71.10.60.1-0.1-00.41.32.32.93.12.82.31.6

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Sterling, VA
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