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ANZ650 Coastal Waters From Fenwick Island De To Chincoteague Va Out 20 Nm- 101 Am Est Sun Dec 10 2023
.small craft advisory in effect from 10 am est this morning through this afternoon...
.gale warning in effect from this afternoon through Monday afternoon...
Overnight..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 3 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds. A slight chance of showers late.
Sun..S winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 5 ft, building to 6 to 7 ft in the afternoon. Dominant period 4 seconds. A chance of rain in the morning, then rain likely in the afternoon.
Sun night..S winds 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt, becoming nw 25 to 30 kt with gusts to 45 kt after midnight. Seas 8 to 10 ft. Dominant period 7 seconds. Rain.
Mon..NW winds 25 to 30 kt, diminishing to 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 7 to 9 ft. Dominant period 10 seconds. A chance of rain in the morning.
Mon night..NW winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 5 to 6 ft. Dominant period 10 seconds.
Tue..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Tue night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

ANZ600 101 Am Est Sun Dec 10 2023
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers..
a strong cold front will approach from the west today, bringing strong southerly winds to the local waters. The front will cross the region tonight, with strong winds shifting to the northwest. High pressure builds in from the west Monday night into Tuesday.

FXUS61 KAKQ 100536 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1236 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

SYNOPSIS
A strong frontal system will impact the region Sunday into early Monday. Expect gusty and rainy conditions across the entire area, with locally heavy rain possible at times. Colder air will sharply move in behind the frontal system as high pressure builds back into the region early next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
As of 945 PM EST Saturday...

Only minor changes were necessary to the near term forecast this evening. Still expecting it to remain mostly dry through most of tonight, with isolated to scattered showers approaching from the W/SW after 2-4 AM. Temperatures will remain steady in the 50s with a persistent, 5-10 mph south wind.

Previous Discussion:

Afternoon analysis shows surface high pressure continuing to move further offshore into the Atlantic. An area of light showers has moved along the Blue Ridge this morning, and though most of the showers have dissipated before moving into our area, some light returns have tried to move into the far west, like Farmville and Louisa; thus, a few spits of rain will be possible out that way.
Anticipating the rest of the activity to dissipate before moving our way, though cloud cover will continue to move in and thicken overnight ahead of the main system that will impact us on Sunday.
Temperatures have warmed nicely into the mid to upper 60s across the south, with upper 50s to lower 60s across the north. Southwest winds have picked up a bit this afternoon with gusts of 15-20mph being observed. May see a slight lull in the breeze later this evening before winds begin to ramp up Sunday morning, especially closer to the coast. As winds and cloud cover increase, expect overnight lows to remain mild. Have forecast lows in the mid 50s for most of the area. Rain will be on our doorstep, moving in from the west by sunrise Sunday.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 945 PM EST Saturday...

Forecast for the incoming storm system still looks to be on track.
The strong cold front will approach from the west on Sunday and push through the area during the evening and overnight hours. Meanwhile, the upper trough will continue to amplify on Sunday and eventually take on a negative tilt as it approaches and crosses the area during the same time frame. Anomalous high amounts of deep-layered moisture will advect into the area ahead of the system on Sunday, with PWs expected to surge to 1.50-1.75". There will be a strong southerly flow ahead of the front on Sunday, especially during the afternoon and evening. Forecasting winds to pick up to 15-25mph, with the stronger speeds closer to the coast. Wind gusts upwards of 30-40mph will be possible at times, particularly in any storms that develop and along the front itself. High temperatures will warm into the upper 60s to lower 70s, though the front will bring in a very sharp temperature gradient, quickly plummeting temperatures Sunday night (more on that below).

Showers are likely during the morning, with numerous showers and even isolated thunderstorms expected during the early afternoon and into the evening. Strong LLJ may allow for strong to severe winds to mix down to the surface in the strongest cells. Exact timing of severe threat seems to have expanded a bit earlier, possibly starting as early as mid-day and persisting into the evening hours, especially across SE VA and NE NC. It'll be hard to get much heating going with all of the cloud cover and rain, but anywhere that does see any limited heating occur will have slightly more instability.
SBCAPE is forecast to be capped around 100-300 J/kg as moist, warm southerly flow continues to stream in. Low level wind fields will strengthen during the day, so would certainly expect strong winds to be the primary threat during this event. However, localized backing of the surface wind field near any triple point that forms may enhance the threat of an isolated tornado or two, mainly across southern and eastern locations. A secondary threat for strong winds will likely accompany the front itself during the later evening hours. The line of showers and storms is expected to form along the front and have the potential to produce wind gusts upwards of 45- 65mph. Damage to power lines and trees will be possible in any of the gusty winds that occur throughout the day.

In addition to the severe threat, widespread rainfall amounts of 1.5- 3 inches are expected with this system. Localized higher amounts upwards of 4 inches can't be ruled out, but will be dependent on where the convection moves through. Lastly, expect a very quick 15- 20 F temperature drop as winds abruptly turn to the NW following the frontal passage. Also, winds may gust to 40-45 mph for a couple of hours in any given location (regardless of whether strong storms occur) after the front passes by. Stratiform rain will continue for a few hours early Mon AM behind the front as moisture wraps around the system as it exits and continues to strengthen. The 18z (and incoming 00z guidance) indicate that there is a possibility of a 2-3 hour period of all snow across our NW counties (Louisa/Fluvanna/Goochland) early Mon AM with sfc temps dropping to 33-34F. This is coincident with a band of strong mid-level frontogenesis. Will allow the night shift to assess the full suite of 00z guidance, but have expanded the mention of RA/SN and have a slight chc of a few snowflakes in the gridded forecast as far SE as the RIC metro. The precipitation is forecast to end by 4-6 AM west/6-8 AM east. If the precip does change over to snow any faster than currently expected, there may be up to an inch of snow on grassy/elevated surfaces in our far NW counties Monday morning. Lows are forecast to fall into the mid 30s-around 40F. Gusty NW winds to 25-40 mph will persist through the night, especially across the east.

High pressure will then build in behind the front during the day on Monday. Expect clouds to gradually clear out throughout the late morning to early afternoon hours. Highs on Monday will struggle to reach back into the upper 40s to around 50 degrees. A chilly night is forecast Monday night as the cold air really settles in, with most inland locations falling into the lower 20s and coastal spots dipping to around 30 degrees. Tuesday will bring much of the same as high pressure centers itself across the region. Expect clear skies, light winds, and high temperatures around 50 degrees. Tuesday night won't be quite as cold with lows in the upper 20s inland and low to mid 30s along the coast.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 100 AM EST Sunday...

Benign weather looks to start the long term period with dry and seasonably cool conditions. Zonal flow will be in place as surface high pressure becomes centered over the region. Some clouds may pass through on Wednesday before clearing out overnight allowing for temperatures to fall into the low to mid 20s inland and low to mid 30s along the coast. A reinforcing secondary high pressure will keep the dry and cool airmass in place for Thursday, with highs holding in the upper 40s to around 50. Models then start to indicate a potent low pressure system developing somewhere across the Intermountain West to Southwest before moving eastward across the country. Differences in placement and timing of this system are very noticeable by the Friday-Saturday timeframe. Will keep monitoring this developing system through time since both have it making it to the Mid-Atlantic region and impacting our local weather at the very end of the long term period.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 100 AM EST Sunday...

Conditions will deteriorate overnight tonight CIGs gradually lower tonight to ~5k ft AGL as a strong cold front begins to approach from the NW. IFR CIGs are expected at RIC by 12z Sunday, but may rise to MVFR during the late morning and early afternoon. CIGs are expected to drop to IFR by midday- early aftn at RIC/SBY. LLWS of ~40 kt from the SSW will develop over RIC later tonight and persist through ~15z. Showers start to move in from west to east after 12z, with isolated tstms possible from midday through the evening. The best chc of seeing thunder is in SE VA/NE NC. Brief gusty winds of 35-50kt are possible with the stronger convective cells. VSBYs will average 3-5 SM in the showers, with brief IFR VSBYs likely in the heavier showers/tstms. On Sunday, southerly winds are expected to increase to 12-16 kt inland with terminals closer to the coast seeing sustained winds of 15-20 kt. Southerly wind gusts upwards of 25-30kt are possible ahead of the front Sunday afternoon.

The front is progged to cross the terminals from NW-SE between 01-07z Monday. Expect an abrupt wind shift to the NW following the FROPA. A short period of 30-40kt gusts is possible at the terminals early Mon AM shortly following the FROPA.
Precipitation will continue through much of Sun night/early Mon AM, and could end as a rain/snow mix at RIC/SBY. Breezy conditions continue on Monday with W-NW winds as the system gradually moves off the coast. Expect skies to clear throughout the day. VFR conditions are forecast into midweek as high pressure builds in.

MARINE
As of 355 PM EST Saturday...

Gale Watches have been converted to Gale Warnings for Sun night across all of the local waters. High pressure remains off the SE coast into Sun with winds remaining S 10-15 kt through tonight. The initial low occludes in Canada tonight with the strong cold front approaching from the W. Secondary cyclogenesis is expected along the front late Sun into Sun evening in central NC. This low is expected to move NE and rapidly deepen Sun night as the trough aloft goes from neutral to negatively tilted. As rapid height falls occur with the deepening low, the wind field will tighten over the local waters. As such, expect strengthening S winds Sun into Sun night with winds increasing to 15-25 kt with gusts to 30 kt over the Ches Bay and 20-25 kt with gusts to 30 kt over the coastal waters Sun.
CAMs show lower S winds than initially expected due mainly to ongoing convection keeping the synoptic winds from efficiently mixing to the surface. However, the cold front moves through from WNW to ESE from 00-09z Mon with strong NW winds aloft mixing down to the surface behind the front. Will note that hi-res CAMs have trended faster with the cold front and have reflected this in the forecast. Gale conditions are likely (high confidence) across the Ches Bay and coastal waters behind the cold front (highest for the first hour or two). Mariners should prepare for strong S winds rapidly shifting to even stronger NW winds with gusts to 40 kt possible (45 kt possible initially behind the cold front). The greatest chance for 45 kt gusts is over the coastal waters but would not be surprised to see a few gusts to 45 kt across the Ches Bay (especially the mouth of the bay). Given bufkit soundings and the strong NW winds behind the front, gusts to 35 kt will also be possible over all the rivers and Currituck Sound (at least for a couple hours). As such, have included all rivers and the Currituck Sound in the Gale Warning. Additionally, the Gale Warning for the N coastal waters begins at 21z Sun due to the highest chance for S Gales ahead of the front over this area. Confidence in Gale conditions has increased due to the recent trend in 12/18z models for a stronger secondary low to develop in central NC before moving up the coast Sun night. The stronger the low, the stronger the NW winds behind the cold front. Gale Watches taper off from W to E Mon as winds diminish. SCAs remain in effect ahead of the Gale Warnings Sun. Widespread showers and isolated-scattered thunderstorms are expected Sun into Sun night with the best chance for storms ahead of and along the cold front Sun afternoon into Sun night. Waterspouts and gusts to >45 kt will be possible with stronger thunderstorms.

NW winds diminish to 20-25 kt with gusts to 30 kt Mon afternoon, eventually diminishing to 10-15 kt Mon night. Sub-SCA conditions are expected Tues through Fri as high pressure dominates the local weather. NE winds increase next weekend with SCA conditions possible.

Waves and seas were 1-2 ft and 2-3 ft respectively. Waves and seas build to 2-4 ft and 4-7 ft Sun, eventually building to 4-6 ft and 6- 10 ft Sun night into Mon. Waves drop below SCA criteria Mon evening with seas remaining elevated into Mon night.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ630-631-654-656.
Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Monday for ANZ630-631-654-656.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ632-634-658.
Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Monday for ANZ632-634-638-658.
Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EST Monday for ANZ633.
Gale Warning from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Monday for ANZ633.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ635>637.
Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Monday for ANZ635>637.
Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ638.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ650-652.
Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST Monday for ANZ650-652.

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Assacorkin Island
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Sat -- 02:15 AM EST     0.03 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:33 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:05 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:19 AM EST     0.47 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:19 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 02:54 PM EST     0.04 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:41 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 08:32 PM EST     0.40 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Assacorkin Island, Chincoteague Bay, Maryland, Tide feet

Public Landing
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Sat -- 03:33 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 03:59 AM EST     0.03 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:05 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:44 AM EST     0.42 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:19 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 04:39 PM EST     0.04 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:41 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 09:57 PM EST     0.36 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Public Landing, Chincoteague Bay, Maryland, Tide feet

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