Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Beards Fork, WV

KEY MESSAGES
- 1) The current stretch of active summer weather continues through Friday, with showers and thunderstorms, not always confined to the peak heating hours of the day, amid heat and humidity, and a couple of disturbances passing by. Repetitive or training storms could prompt flash flooding.

- 2) Very warm to hot and muggy conditions also continue this week. Given the extended stretch of hot and humid weather, heat safety will be important, especially Thursday, which is likely to be the hottest day of this current stretch.

- 3) There is increasing confidence in a break in this active summer weather pattern this weekend, with the break in the summer portion of this pattern even extending into the following work week.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...

With mid/upper-level disturbances and eventually a surface cold front modulating timing, showers and thunderstorms at times through Friday may not always be confined to the peak heating hours of the day. No particular day will be a complete washout, and we may even be able to eek out dry interludes between systems, most notably Thursday, but probably not for much more than a 36 hour period of time. This does not bode well for outside interests that require consecutive days of dry weather.

A north to south warm front bisecting the forecast area early this morning moves east, and eventually out of the area today, as a mid/upper-level trough bisecting an otherwise high pressure regime over the eastern half of the U.S., crosses.

Showers may redevelop over the middle Ohio Valley along/just west of the warm front early this morning, and may even intensify into thunderstorms for a time this morning, but then may also fall part as they approach the mountains this afternoon, although the mid/upper-level short wave trough could keep the activity going.

A second impulse is likely to fire another round of showers and thunderstorms over the middle Ohio this afternoon, with this activity then trekking eastward across the area into tonight.
There may not be a discernible surface feature associated with the mid/upper-level trough, only a south to southwest low level flow of increasingly warm and humid air.

However, models indicate the low level flow pressure/height gradients tightening up a bit over a portion of the area this afternoon, increasing low-level flow/shear, and better focusing moisture transport, in turn elevating precipitable water values to two inches or greater. All this could lead to the thunderstorms becoming robust this afternoon and lasting into evening, with strong to locally damaging wind gusts and heavy downpours.
Instances of locally excessive rainfall are possible amid modestly slow moving storms, along with back-building and / or training.

The Weather Prediction Center maintained the Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall the forecast area for today and tonight in their Monday afternoon update. The Storm Prediction Center maintains the general thunderstorm outlook for the forecast area in their new Day 1 Outlook for today and tonight.

The rest of the mid/upper-level ridging bisected by the short wave trough crosses Wednesday afternoon and night, pushing at least the greatest coverage of showers and thunderstorms with a trailing embedded wave eastward. he Storm Prediction Center has a Marginal Risk for Severe Thunderstorms grazing the northern and northeastern reaches of the forecast area for Wednesday afternoon and evening.

While deep layer flow, and hence large-scale forcing for ascent and vertical shear, are expected to be relatively weak, the presence of a moist and moderately unstable air mass could support wet microburst activity and an associated risk for sporadic damaging winds with any storms we can manage to stand up Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening.

Broad long wave troughing sets up over the center of the continent during the latter portion of the work week, easing eastward to the central to eastern portion of the continent this weekend. The ridging gives way to lead next mid/upper-level short wave trough as the long wave trough eases east Thursday night through Friday, pushing a surface cold front toward the area.

Adding synoptioc-scale forcing and shear to the very moist and moderately unstable air mass could certainly lead to strong, heavy showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening.
The weather Prediction center maintained a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall in their Monday afternoon update for Friday/Friday night, for the forecast area in a long ribbon all along and ahead of the approaching cold front, for the Appalachians and Ohio Valley, and then back westward through the south-central Plains States.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

With mid/upper-level heights rebuilding in the wake of the short wave exiting tonight, above average temperatures and high humidity return, with lowland highs in the upper 80s to low 90s Thursday and Friday, and lowland dew points and overnight lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s through Friday.

Confidence in increasing in a lull in showers and thunderstorms by Thursday, allowing it to be the hottest day of the week.
Lowland highs in the low 90s, together with dew points in the low to mid 70s, will drive heat indices to close to 100 degrees F for a time Thursday afternoon. This may eventually warrant Heat Advisories for portions of the lowlands for Thursday afternoon.

Heat and humidity will be high again ahead of the cold front on Friday, with at least eastern portions of the lowlands, nearest the mountains, again flirting with Heat indices near 100 degrees F.
The cold front finally breaks the heat for this weekend and into the upcoming work week.

Probabilities of high temperatures exceeding 90 degrees F are nil today and still very low on Wednesday, but then range up to 50 percent Thursday, before dropping back some on Friday. However, h85 temperatures as high as 20 C Thursday can support lowland highs as high as 95 on Thursday. Probabilities of high temperatures of 90 are slim to none this weekend and the beginning of the upcoming work week.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Models are coming into better agreement on a cold front crossing the area Friday night, driven by the forward progress of the long wave trough into the eastern U.S. This brings the promise of dry weather Saturday, complete with lower dew points, breaking the ad nauseum of active summer weather.

However, the active portion of the pattern returns, as another mid/upper-level short wave trough backs the mid/upper-level flow as it approaches early next week. A weaker short wave trough ahead of it could bring the return of unsettled weather as early as Sunday afternoon, before the main short wave drives a surface cold front into the area early in the next work week.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR conditions are likely to be interrupted by two rounds of showers and thunderstorms today. The first will be early this morning over the middle Ohio Valley, the second rolling across the area this afternoon into tonight. MVFR conditions are likely at some point during each round, especially the second, when thunderstorms are most likely.

Thunderstorms can bring brief IFR conditions along with erratic gusty winds, especially with the second round this afternoon.

Light south to southeast surface flow nearly this morning will become south to southwest and a bit gusty, into the 15 to 20 kt range outside thunderstorms, erratic into the 25 to 30 kt range in and near thunderstorms, this afternoon, then light south to southwest tonight. Light to moderate south to southwest flow aloft today will become moderate west to southwest tonight.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and coverage of showers and thunderstorms may vary from the forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE TUE 06/09/26 UTC 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 EDT 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H M H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
Brief periods of IFR visibility possible in thunderstorms each day and even at night through Friday. Episodes of late night and early morning IFR or worse fog are also possible this week, largely dependent upon where rainfall occurs.

RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.