Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Beards Fork, WV

SHORT TERM
(Through Late Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Thu May 22 2025

Quiet but cool conditions can be expected Thursday and Friday thanks to persistent northwest flow and building surface high pressure.

Satellite imagery early this morning reveals a subtle shortwave moving across the lower Missouri river basin, embedded within a broad area of northwest flow aloft. Forcing from this wave continues to trigger thunderstorm development across far southern Missouri and northern Arkansas, but aside from a few sprinkles this activity has remained to the south of our forecast area. This is expected to continue through the night, and dry conditions will be maintained.

During the day tomorrow, breezy northwest winds will redevelop, and temperatures will likely be slightly cooler than the day before. In areas south of I-70 temperatures will likely climb into the low 70s, with temperatures remaining in the 60s farther north. While there may be as much as a 15 degree spread across the area, this equates to roughly 5 to 10 degrees below seasonal averages. Meanwhile, dry conditions are expected to persist, aside from perhaps a few weak showers across Illinois and northeast Missouri late in the afternoon and evening as another impulse moves through the northwest flow aloft.

On Friday, an upper ridge across the Central Plains will nudge eastward slightly, but northwest flow will hang tough across our local area. Meanwhile, surface high pressure and a dry airmass will remain in place, keeping precipitation at bay for one more day.
Meanwhile, temperatures are expected to remain relatively mild but more evenly distributed as the core of the surface high moves overhead, with values generally reaching near 70 degrees area-wide.
Surface winds are also expected to be noticeably weaker, leading to a rather comfortable day.

LONG TERM
(Friday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Thu May 22 2025

A much more active pattern is expected to return to the region over the weekend, with multiple rounds of showers and at least a few thunderstorms expected across at least parts of our local area between Saturday and Monday. While this pattern favors heavy rain on a regional scale, it remains somewhat uncertain that our local area will bear the brunt of the heaviest accumulations and associated impacts.

By Friday night / Saturday morning, a modest shortwave traversing the intermountain west will trigger lee troughing across the central high plains, and in response, increasing southerly flow will begin to draw Gulf moisture northward into the Plains. Meanwhile, a slow- moving NW to SE oriented warm front will develop ahead of the deepening lee trough, and will slowly move east over time along with the surface low. Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop along this boundary between Saturday and Sunday, triggered by convergence along the nose of a strengthening low level jet along with subtle shortwave impulses, and fed by an increasingly moist and unstable airmass. The combination of moisture (90th+ percentile precipitable water), storm motions parallel to the stalled boundary, and multiple rounds of convection have the potential to create locally heavy rain in some areas between Saturday and Monday, with the bulk of this falling over the weekend.
Latest NBM guidance continues to paint a broad area of significant rain totals across the southern half of Missouri during this window, with a 50 to 70% chance of 2+ inches of rain, and a 10 to 30% chance of 4+ inches. This suggests a high likelihood of soaking rain, with locally higher and more impactful totals within narrower convective corridors, particularly near the stalled boundary.

However, while both the pattern and model guidance support significant rain totals wherever the heaviest rain falls, areas to our west and southwest remain favored to see these more impactful amounts. This is largely due to the fact that the previously mentioned warm front remains likely to stay well to our southwest, with fewer ensemble members drawing this boundary north as the shortwave and surface low moves across the area Sunday.
While LREF cluster analysis continues to exhibit some significant variability in the location of heaviest rain, most do keep the highest QPF totals across southwest Missouri. Still, there remains a relatively high probability of soaking rain along and south of I-70, particularly on Sunday when the surface boundary nudges a bit farther north. While we will continue to monitor the potential for higher totals due to the variability among members, current projections lean more toward soaking rain with minor overall impacts. This scenario would likely cause river rises and possibly some minor flooding in a few spots, with perhaps some localized flash flooding if the core of the heavier rain shifts farther north in a low probability "worst case".

As the shortwave and surface low move across the area sometime late Sunday and early Monday, a cold front will also surge south through the area. This may lead to a burst of renewed convection as low level convergence increases, but the potential for heavier rain will gradually decrease Monday as the boundary sinks south. Behind the front, showery conditions are likely to continue for a day or two before high pressure settles into the area between Tuesday and Wednesday.

Finally, given the southerly position of the surface boundary alluded to above, the potential for severe thunderstorms remains relatively low. This is because the most significant instability will be displaced to our south, and wind shear is expected to be rather modest overall. The low probability "fly in the ointment" scenario that could change this would be a northward surge in the warm front Sunday ahead of the advancing low, but again this scenario is not well represented in more recent model runs.

Otherwise, the other significant weather story during this period will be the continued cool temperatures through the weekend and Memorial Day. Latest guidance continues to maintain well below average temperatures with decreasing ensemble spread, particularly Sunday and Monday due to persistent precipitation followed by the aforementioned cold front. Ensemble means remain generally in the low to mid 60s, which equates to roughly 15 degrees below seasonal averages.

By mid week, high pressure is likely to gradually settle into the area and precipitation chances will wind down. A gradual warming trend is also expected as we head into the latter half of the week, pending the slow eastward movement of a lingering trough across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.

AVIATION
(For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1154 AM CDT Thu May 22 2025

Northwest winds will weaken this evening, with gusts ceasing around 0000 UTC Friday. Winds will then become light/variable before midnight as a surface ridge of high pressure approaches from the west. Some river valley steam fog is expected, which could impact KJEF/KSUS. Added some MVFR fog at each location late tonight into very early Friday morning, but it is low confidence in terms of intensity and longevity.

Gosselin

LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...None.
IL...None.