Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Beards Fork, WV
April 19, 2024 11:11 AM EDT (15:11 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:41 AM Sunset 8:05 PM Moonrise 3:13 PM Moonset 3:56 AM |
Area Discussion for - Charleston WV
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FXUS61 KRLX 191248 AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 848 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024
SYNOPSIS
Passing cold front brings showers and storms through late this afternoon or evening. Cooler and drier this weekend, the slowly warming into mid-week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 848 AM Friday...
No changes to previous forecast necessary.
As of 651 AM Friday...
Previous forecast on track.
As of 223 AM Friday...
Key Points:
* Wet with near normal temperatures today.
* Showers and storms arrive from the west this morning.
* Some storms may become severe mainly south this afternoon.
* Cannot ruled out isolated instance of flash flooding mainly south.
At the surface, a low pressure center moves northeast across OH, and an extending cold front arrives to the Middle OH valley first this in the morning. At the mid-upper levels, a shortwave in a semi-zonal flow, moves across the aforementioned system, providing upper level support. The environment shows strong moisture advection under deep southwest flow, with PWATs increasing near 1.5 inches, CAPE around 1,800 J/Kg, and deep layer shear about 30 to 40 knots. These ingredients could support scattered showers and few thunderstorms ahead of the front today. Guidance suggests up to half an inch of QPF is expected across the area. Although ingredients look marginal for severe, thunderstorms may become particularly strong across the southeast portions of the area where SPC maintains a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms. Although not widespread flooding is expected, cannot ruled out isolated instance of flash flooding with the heavier storms, mainly across the southern portions of WV and southwest VA into this afternoon.
Showers will persist along the mountains tonight before exiting east of the Appalachians before midnight. Meanwhile, clearing will spread from west to east behind the front across the lowlands, reaching the mountains after midnight. This could produce areas of dense fog over areas that received rain overnight tonight.
Gusty southwest winds shift northwest behind the front, bringing much fresh air. Expect near normal afternoon temperatures with highs around 70 degrees across the lowlands, ranging into the upper 50s higher elevations. Near normal lows for tonight, generally in the mid to lower 40s lowlands, ranging into the mid 30s higher elevations.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
As of 215 AM Friday...
Quiet conditions are expected through the weekend as surface high pressure slowly spreads east across the middle of the country whilst Canadian Arctic high pressure largely respects the longest undefended border.
Dry conditions with dew points near to below the freezing mark may yield some patchy frost across the north Sunday morning with some more extensive frost possible Monday morning as well
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 215 AM Friday...
High pressure shifts off to the east Monday putting the region back into southwesterly flow Tuesday ahead of an approaching northern stream low slated to arrive in the Lower Great Lakes Tuesday night.
This should yield a brief return to mild conditions with daytime highs across the lower elevations in the upper 60s to lower 70s amid a modest uptick in precipitable water to around 3/4 of an inch. A cold front associated with the aforementioned low will drag across the region Tuesday night into Wednesday morning yielding around a third of an inch of rainfall averaged across the basin. Instability looks rather meager, and coupled with overnight timing will cap any chances for convection at slight.
Cooler northwesterly flow over Lake Erie in the wake of cold frontal passage Wednesday likely yields at least some lake enhanced moisture plume feeding into the region during the day with fairly steep low level lapse rates through 5000 ft. Could see some low topped showers with this activity at least through Wednesday afternoon.
Cool and dry air settles in Wednesday night with some additional frost potential for Thursday morning.
The balance of the work week appears quiet with the next chance for precipitation looming for next weekend.
AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 651 AM Friday...
Radar imagery shows scattered showers arriving to NE KY and SE OH early this morning, ahead of an approaching cold front. VFR conditions are expected under light rain falling from an upper cloud deck during the morning hours. However, embedded thunderstorms could produce brief periods of MVFR/IFR conditions into this afternoon. Coded VCTS per uncertainty whether storms will hit directly a terminal or not. Additional amendments will be required.
The cold front crosses during the afternoon producing a gusty wind shift from southwest to northeast at PKB, HTS and CRW around 18Z, and CKB, EKN and BKW by 20Z.
Ceilings will become MVFR along the higher terrain and behind FROPA, perhaps persisting through midnight. Drier conditions and even clearing may spread from west to east behind the FROPA with widespread VFR conditions prevailing across the western terminals this afternoon and evening.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of precipitation and associated restrictions may vary from forecast.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 EDT 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H L H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H M H H H H H H H M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
No widespread IFR is expected at this time.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 848 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024
SYNOPSIS
Passing cold front brings showers and storms through late this afternoon or evening. Cooler and drier this weekend, the slowly warming into mid-week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 848 AM Friday...
No changes to previous forecast necessary.
As of 651 AM Friday...
Previous forecast on track.
As of 223 AM Friday...
Key Points:
* Wet with near normal temperatures today.
* Showers and storms arrive from the west this morning.
* Some storms may become severe mainly south this afternoon.
* Cannot ruled out isolated instance of flash flooding mainly south.
At the surface, a low pressure center moves northeast across OH, and an extending cold front arrives to the Middle OH valley first this in the morning. At the mid-upper levels, a shortwave in a semi-zonal flow, moves across the aforementioned system, providing upper level support. The environment shows strong moisture advection under deep southwest flow, with PWATs increasing near 1.5 inches, CAPE around 1,800 J/Kg, and deep layer shear about 30 to 40 knots. These ingredients could support scattered showers and few thunderstorms ahead of the front today. Guidance suggests up to half an inch of QPF is expected across the area. Although ingredients look marginal for severe, thunderstorms may become particularly strong across the southeast portions of the area where SPC maintains a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms. Although not widespread flooding is expected, cannot ruled out isolated instance of flash flooding with the heavier storms, mainly across the southern portions of WV and southwest VA into this afternoon.
Showers will persist along the mountains tonight before exiting east of the Appalachians before midnight. Meanwhile, clearing will spread from west to east behind the front across the lowlands, reaching the mountains after midnight. This could produce areas of dense fog over areas that received rain overnight tonight.
Gusty southwest winds shift northwest behind the front, bringing much fresh air. Expect near normal afternoon temperatures with highs around 70 degrees across the lowlands, ranging into the upper 50s higher elevations. Near normal lows for tonight, generally in the mid to lower 40s lowlands, ranging into the mid 30s higher elevations.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
As of 215 AM Friday...
Quiet conditions are expected through the weekend as surface high pressure slowly spreads east across the middle of the country whilst Canadian Arctic high pressure largely respects the longest undefended border.
Dry conditions with dew points near to below the freezing mark may yield some patchy frost across the north Sunday morning with some more extensive frost possible Monday morning as well
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 215 AM Friday...
High pressure shifts off to the east Monday putting the region back into southwesterly flow Tuesday ahead of an approaching northern stream low slated to arrive in the Lower Great Lakes Tuesday night.
This should yield a brief return to mild conditions with daytime highs across the lower elevations in the upper 60s to lower 70s amid a modest uptick in precipitable water to around 3/4 of an inch. A cold front associated with the aforementioned low will drag across the region Tuesday night into Wednesday morning yielding around a third of an inch of rainfall averaged across the basin. Instability looks rather meager, and coupled with overnight timing will cap any chances for convection at slight.
Cooler northwesterly flow over Lake Erie in the wake of cold frontal passage Wednesday likely yields at least some lake enhanced moisture plume feeding into the region during the day with fairly steep low level lapse rates through 5000 ft. Could see some low topped showers with this activity at least through Wednesday afternoon.
Cool and dry air settles in Wednesday night with some additional frost potential for Thursday morning.
The balance of the work week appears quiet with the next chance for precipitation looming for next weekend.
AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 651 AM Friday...
Radar imagery shows scattered showers arriving to NE KY and SE OH early this morning, ahead of an approaching cold front. VFR conditions are expected under light rain falling from an upper cloud deck during the morning hours. However, embedded thunderstorms could produce brief periods of MVFR/IFR conditions into this afternoon. Coded VCTS per uncertainty whether storms will hit directly a terminal or not. Additional amendments will be required.
The cold front crosses during the afternoon producing a gusty wind shift from southwest to northeast at PKB, HTS and CRW around 18Z, and CKB, EKN and BKW by 20Z.
Ceilings will become MVFR along the higher terrain and behind FROPA, perhaps persisting through midnight. Drier conditions and even clearing may spread from west to east behind the FROPA with widespread VFR conditions prevailing across the western terminals this afternoon and evening.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of precipitation and associated restrictions may vary from forecast.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 EDT 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H L H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H M H H H H H H H M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
No widespread IFR is expected at this time.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KBKW RALEIGH COUNTY MEMORIAL,WV | 21 sm | 11 min | calm | 3/4 sm | Overcast | Rain Mist | 55°F | 52°F | 88% | 30.07 |
Charleston, WV,
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