Sunday, September27, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Beards Fork, WV

Version 3.4
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8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:16AMSunset 7:14PM Sunday September 27, 2020 1:56 AM EDT (05:56 UTC) Moonrise 4:36PMMoonset 1:57AM Illumination 75% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Beards Fork, WV
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location: 38.09, -81.22     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston WV
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FXUS61 KRLX 270515 AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 115 AM EDT Sun Sep 27 2020

SYNOPSIS. High pressure through Sunday, followed by a strong cold front early next week. Upper level trough brings unsettled and unseasonably cool weather the balance of the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/. As of 538 PM Saturday .

Increased cloud cover across the CWA this evening as clouds still having a hard time clearing out. Thinking areas of stratus will be likely again tonight, mitigating much in the way of dense fog.

As of 145 PM Saturday .

Pesky stratus and stratocu over will very slowly erode as we roll through late afternoon. Overall weak flow, low level moisture, and deepening inversion are progged to continue tonight into Sunday. This makes for a somewhat low confidence forecast tonight into early tomorrow regarding the extent of dense river valley fog and/or stratus. Current thinking is for some redevelopment of stratus tonight with some dense river valley fog as well. Should stratus become the rule then fog will be mitigated . much like last night.

Models hold on to the inversion for much of Sunday and with little in the way of vertical mixing, I suspect stratus and fog will will be slow to lift. This would argue for more clouds than sun into the afternoon and thus somewhat lower high temperatures the previously forecast.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/. As of 255 PM Saturday .

Deep layer south to southwest flow will still be in place to begin this period. A mid level southern stream short wave trough with this flow will cross Sunday night, but it may take until the late overnight hours or even dawn Monday to get sufficient moistening for so much as a shower, just when the short wave is exiting the area.

The better chance for showers comes when a northern stream trough and surface cold front approach from the west in the afternoon. There may be enough instability and moisture pooling just ahead of the front, with PW values in a narrow axis there climbing toward 1.5 inches, for a few thunderstorms to go along with the showers.

The front crosses the middle Ohio Valley Monday evening, but then gets hung up over or just east of the central Appalachians Monday night and Tuesday, with waves of low pressure moving up along it. This is all in response the northern stream short wave lifting out, in favor of a second one diving into the developing long wave trough position, and closing off in the process. Highs only in the lower 60s, coupled with rain much of the day, spells a rather cool and wet day for much of the area on Tuesday, along with a stout reminder that fall is here.

With the upper level low still somewhere over the Tennessee Valley come Tuesday evening, rain continues into Tuesday night, and then whether it starts to wind down by dawn Wednesday will depend upon when the upper level low starts to lift up through the east side of the long wave trough position. The rain will deliver somewhat of a soaking, with an inch or better possible, mainly Tuesday through Tuesday night, higher if slower solutions pan out Tuesday night.

Central guidance looked reasonable on temperatures, which do not recover much during the day on Tuesday.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. As of 255 PM Saturday .

This period takes us deeper into fall than the calendar would otherwise suggest, with an anomously deep long wave trough established over the eastern half of the CONUS. How wet Wednesday turns out depends upon when an upper level low near the base of the long wave trough position, over the Tennessee Valley early Wednesday morning, starts to lift up through the east side of the long wave trough position.

The rain Wednesday would add to short term totals through Tuesday night, building a high water threat with saturated grounds and rising streams and rivers.

The weather is likely to remain unsettled through the balance of the weak, as upper level short wave troughs parade through the long wave trough position. This spells lots of clouds, along with rounds of mainly light showers.

Central guidance reflects below to well below normal temperatures, right off the bat by day, but not until Friday morning on lows, as the weather does start to dry out/clear out/become more diurnal toward next weekend.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. As of 116 AM Sunday .

Latest satellite imagery and surface observations suggest that river valley fog has started to form across the area and may continue to increase in coverage through the early morning hours. However, there may be an increase in low stratus overnight as well, possibly lessening fog impacts somewhat. That said, with latest satellite trends showing fog expanding fairly quickly, IFR/LIFR conditions will be possible at any TAF sites through at least mid morning on Sunday.

Any fog and/or low stratus should dissipate by around 13Z on Sunday with VFR conditions returning to the area through the remainder of the day. Surface winds are expected to be out of the southwest around 5 kts, but gusts around 10 kts will be possible during the afternoon hours.

By tonight, low stratus and/or valley fog appears to be possible once again. However, conditons should remain VFR through the end of the period, but conditions may start to deteriorate for subsequent TAF cycles.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY . FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: IFR/LIFR conditions tonight will greatly depend on the redevelopment and extent of stratus formation.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE SUN 09/27/20 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H M L M M M M M H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M L M M H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H L L L L L L L M H EKN CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M M M M M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H L M M M M M H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H L M M M M H H

AFTER 06Z MONDAY . IFR conditions will be possible Monday morning in dense river valley fog. IFR in rain, heavy at times, on Tuesday and Tuesday night.

RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WV . None. OH . None. KY . None. VA . None.

SYNOPSIS . TRM/30 NEAR TERM . SL/30 SHORT TERM . TRM LONG TERM . TRM AVIATION . RG


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Beckley, Raleigh County Memorial Airport, WV21 mi65 minSSE 410.00 miFair60°F59°F96%1015 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBKW

Wind History from BKW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE4SE4SE4SE4SE3CalmCalmSE3NW34N55N6CalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalmSE3CalmS4S4
1 day agoSE7SE4SE7SE10SE7E7SE8SE10S8
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmS4S3CalmCalmS6S6S6S7SE7W4S3S4CalmSE3CalmSE4SE5SE5E3SE3SE4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Ground Weather Radar Station Charleston, WV
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