Cuba, MO Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Cuba, MO

April 12, 2024 3:09 PM CDT (20:09 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:33 AM   Sunset 7:41 PM
Moonrise 7:57 AM   Moonset 11:47 PM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cuba, MO
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Area Discussion for - St. Louis, MO
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FXUS63 KLSX 121700 AFDLSX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 1200 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Elevated fire danger is now expected to threaten all of eastern and central Missouri as well as west-central Illinois this afternoon due to low relative humidity, windy conditions, and dry fine fuels.

- Saturday through mid-week will be unseasonably warm with Monday and Tuesday's high temperatures approaching records.

- The potential for multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms still exists early next week, with a threat for strong to severe thunderstorms. Very little has changed regarding the uncertainty surrounding this potential.



SHORT TERM
(Through Late Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 336 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Weak, narrow surface high pressure continues to slowly build into the region ahead of a mid-level ridge than spans most of the western half of the CONUS. Despite the surface high closing in on us today, gusty conditions will continue into this afternoon. Efficient mixing up to 750 - 800 mb will allow us to overcome the weak high and gust to up to 30 kts in portions of northeast Missouri southeast through south-central Illinois.

Gusty winds have all but completely dried finer fuels across the area with RAWS data showing yesterday's 10 hr fuel moisture at 7 - 10% from Moberly to Farmington. With dry fine fuels, gusty winds, and warm weather (60s highs), elevated fire danger is expected for all of our Missouri counties and for portions of west-central Illinois.

The low-level ridge axis will pass Friday night into Saturday morning leaving the Mid-Mississippi Valley in southwest flow. Warm air will quickly flood the region, catapulting temperatures into the 70s and 80s by Saturday afternoon. This unseasonable warmth will extend well into next week. This is supported by high ensemble (>75%) probabilities of exceeding 75 degrees nearly every day from Sunday through Wednesday and the NBM 25th percentile for KSTL bottoming in the 80s during that period.

Jaja

LONG TERM
(Saturday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 336 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Sunday opens with a mid-level ridge covering most of the CONUS and a closed low entering the California coast. At the surface, a weak low pressure system will traverse the Northern Plains and Great Lakes regions, laying a boundary somewhere across northern Missouri and central Illinois Sunday night. On Monday, a surface low pressure system tied to the mid-level low will deepen in the lee of the Front Range. This system will lift the aforementioned boundary north on Monday as a warm front while intensifying warm air and moisture advection into the Mid-Mississippi Valley. This will increase instability Monday afternoon and open the door for warm sector convection. Like in previous forecasts, the best jet level and mid- level dynamics appear to remain to our west on Monday. Ensemble guidance show the highest potential for 500 J/kg SBCAPE coincident with 30 kts of bulk shear to our west as well. Bulk shear increases drastically overnight into Tuesday to 60 - 70 kts with the arrival of a potent low-level jet. Although instability appears to be lesser than on Monday, this amount of shear ahead of the system's cold front creates concern for strong to severe thunderstorms regardless.

Although this is consistent with previous forecasts, it's important to note the amount of uncertainty that's going into the forecast.
WPC cluster analysis all show a mid-level trough in the Intermountain West by Monday evening, but the similarities stop there. Each cluster shows a different trough in depth, amplitude, location, and tilt. All of these factors will impact the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms early next week, from the amount of moisture return we receive to the timing and placement of fronts.
At the time of writing we can confidently say that it will storm early next week and that there is a potential for these storms to be severe. However, there are too many inconsistent variables to key in on any specifics at this point.

Guidance suggests that the early week "cold" front won't do much in the way of cooling the region down or removing much of its moisture.
A second cold front later in the week will do the heavy lifting on that front, bringing cooler and drier air into the region as well as another chance for showers and thunderstorms.

Jaja

AVIATION
(For the 18z TAFs through 18z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Dry and VFR flight conditions will persist through the TAF period.
West-northwesterly winds with occasional gusts of 25 to 30 kt will quickly slacken this evening and then become variable at times. On Saturday, winds will become southerly and gradually strengthen through midday.

Pfahler

CLIMATE
Issued at 225 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS

4/14 || 4/15

St. Louis | 92 (2006) | 89 (2002)
Columbia | 89 (2006) | 90 (1896)
Quincy | 86 (2006) | 88 (2002)



LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...None.
IL...None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KUUV SULLIVAN RGNL,MO 17 sm14 minNW 12G1810 smClear64°F32°F30%30.12
KVIH ROLLA NATIONAL,MO 19 sm16 minWNW 16G2510 smClear64°F34°F32%30.13
Link to 5 minute data for KVIH


Wind History from VIH
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Tide / Current for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Upper Mississippi Valley   
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St. Louis, MO,



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