Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Cuba, MO

SHORT TERM
(Through Late Wednesday Night)
Issued at 219 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

The main focus of the short term period continues to be on the passage of today's cold front, which is in the process of crossing the I-44 corridor as of 1:30 PM. While this has kept temperatures on the cooler side across central/NE MO and west-central Illinois, even in these cooler areas afternoon temperatures have already reaching the low to mid 50s. This is still roughly 10-15 degrees above average for this time of year in spite of the front. Meanwhile, areas south of the front have soared into the mid 60s to mid 70s, which is roughly 25 to 30 degrees above average. Any way you slice it, today has been quite warm in spite of the passing front.
Meanwhile, breezy north-northwest winds have filled in behind the front, with gusts generally reaching a maximum of about 25 mph.
Strong enough to notice with temperatures in the 50s, but otherwise not enough to be particularly impactful. Winds will steadily weaken this evening and overnight.

One additional thing to keep an eye on late this afternoon and evening will be the potential for a few showers across southeast Missouri and southern Illinois, which may just barely scrape against our southeastern border before quickly exiting to the southeast. In this area, high resolution models indicate a reasonable potential for around 250-500 J/kg of SBCAPE to develop by late afternoon, although most of this is expected to occur just to our southeast.
Still, it's enough to support a low potential (10-20%) for weak thunderstorms between roughly 4-7 pm. Again, this would likely occur very near the southeastern border of our county warning area, so these low probabilities are strictly for the counties we forecast for. It should be noted, though, that the chance for showers (50- 80%) and thunderstorms (20%) is higher just to the southeast, particularly in the Bootheel region of Missouri.

Benign weather is expected Wednesday as surface high pressure and dry, stable air settles into the area. Temperatures will be more seasonably mild but still slightly above average (5-10 degrees), with highs in the mid 40s to low 50s for the most part. Light winds can also be expected thanks to the aforementioned high pressure.

BRC

LONG TERM
(Thursday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 219 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

The main focus of the medium and long range (THU-TUE) portion of the forecast continues to be the potential for beneficial rainfall over the weekend. While a reasonable potential for this still exists, models continue to exhibit a high degree of run-to run inconsistency and high ensemble spread regarding this possibility, and as a result, this is far from a sure thing at this stage.

Before we get there though, there is very little in the way of potentially impactful weather expected in the Thursday through early Saturday timeframe. The large scale pattern will feature persistent west-northwest flow as a flat longwave ridge slowly inches eastward, with a few subtle impulses moving through the mean flow. One such impulse may provide just enough forcing and mid level moisture to produce some light rain Thursday night, but the presence of antecedent dry low level air continues to significantly limit precipitation probabilities (20-30%) and potential amounts (90th percentile amounts less than 1/4 inch).
While it wouldn't be a shock to see a narrow streak of rain up to that amount, this is not expected to produce noteworthy impacts to the area. Otherwise, slightly above normal temperatures will continue Thursday with slightly warmer values yet on Friday, perhaps climbing back into the mid to upper 50s in central/southeast Missouri.

Attention then turns to our potential rainmaker arriving from the west over the weekend. While there remains considerable model variability in the timing and strength of this system, confidence is high that a southern stream shortwave will move across the southern CONUS and lower Mississippi Valley between late Saturday and Sunday, phasing with another northern stream wave as it does so. As this system arrives, rich Gulf moisture will be transported northward, and the combination of isentropic ascent and convergence along a stalled warm front is expected to produce widespread precipitation.
However, exactly WHERE this precipitation falls remains the main source of uncertainty, and more specifically whether the more meaningful and soaking rain will extend far enough north to provide any benefit to our area.

Recent cluster analysis reveals that there is still quite a bit of spread in the track and strength of this low. To make matters worse, the variations in the clusters appear to be heavily weighted toward individual model suites, which also decreases confidence in our potential solution. The strongest/wettest cluster is heavily weighted by the GEPS (Canadian) ensemble, while the ECMWF produces a weaker, faster, and drier solution with a shorter window for moisture return. The GEFS members are a bit more evenly distributed, but is still much drier than the GEPS overall. While the areas that DO see rain will have the potential to see meaningful (and much needed) rainfall amounts, it remains far from a guarantee that this will occur locally, even in the most favored areas like the Ozarks and southern Illinois. Latest operational precipitation probabilities have also dropped slightly to reflect a slight shift toward the drier solutions, but this trend may continue to fluctuate in the coming days, and there remains a reasonable chance (50-70%) that areas south of I-70 will see at least some beneficial rain over the weekend. Probabilities north of I-70 are much more tenuous (30-50%) due to the uncertain track of the low.

Behind this system heading into early next week, confidence is relatively high that an upper ridge will quickly build into the area, leading to a steady warming trend. Precipitation chances are also relatively low, with almost no support for additional rain until potentially late next week. In other words, if the drier, more southerly solutions for this weekend end up closer to reality, it may not see much, if any meaningful drought improvement for the next week.

BRC

AVIATION
(For the 00z TAFs through 00z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 521 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

Northerly winds will slowly subside tonight, though some gusts near 20 knots are expected in/around metro St. Louis over the next several hours. A surface ridge of high pressure will approach from the west on Wednesday, with winds becoming light/variable.

Gosselin

LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...None.
IL...None.