Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Montross, VA
October 4, 2023 2:15 AM EDT (06:15 UTC)
Sunrise 7:05AM Sunset 6:47PM Moonrise 9:11PM Moonset 12:03PM
ANZ537 Tidal Potomac From Cobb Island To Smith Point- 133 Am Edt Wed Oct 4 2023
Overnight..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Wed..NE winds around 5 kt...becoming se late. Waves 1 ft or less.
Wed night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri..E winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Fri night..S winds 5 kt. Waves flat. A chance of showers.
Sat..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft... Building to 3 ft. A chance of showers.
Sun..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Overnight..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Wed..NE winds around 5 kt...becoming se late. Waves 1 ft or less.
Wed night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri..E winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Fri night..S winds 5 kt. Waves flat. A chance of showers.
Sat..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft... Building to 3 ft. A chance of showers.
Sun..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 ft.
ANZ500 133 Am Edt Wed Oct 4 2023
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay..
high pressure will remain near the waters through Wednesday before pushing offshore Thursday. A strong cold front will cross the waters Friday into Saturday. High pressure returns Sunday with several weak pieces of energy crossing the waters early next week. Small craft advisories may be needed late Friday, and will likely be needed behind the front on Saturday.
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay..
high pressure will remain near the waters through Wednesday before pushing offshore Thursday. A strong cold front will cross the waters Friday into Saturday. High pressure returns Sunday with several weak pieces of energy crossing the waters early next week. Small craft advisories may be needed late Friday, and will likely be needed behind the front on Saturday.
Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
(on/off) HelpNOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS61 KAKQ 040106 AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 906 PM EDT Tue Oct 3 2023
SYNOPSIS
High pressure slowly builds south across the from the eastern Great Lakes through tonight, and remains near the region through Thursday bringing dry and warm conditions. A strong cold front will approach from the west late Thursday and Friday, crossing the area Friday night into early this weekend, bringing cooler and more autumn-like conditions For Saturday night through much of next week.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
As of 845 PM EDT Tuesday...
Latest weather analysis indicates ~1022mb sfc high pressure centered across the VA coastal plain this evening. Aloft, a broad ridge of high pressure is noted over the eastern CONUS with a deep upper trough lifting across the intermountain west toward the central and southern high plains.
There are a few spotty areas with BKN cloud cover across interior southern VA, but overall mainly clear conditions prevail, with temperatures primarily ranging through the 60s.
Will maintain the mention of patchy fog overnight/early Wed morning, mainly over interior southern VA/NE NC and the eastern shore where sfc winds should be calm. Wed morning low temps in the low-mid 50s across most areas, with upper 50s to lower 60s at the immediate coast and over urban locations.
SHORT TERM /8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
As of 300 PM EDT Tuesday...
Upper pattern becomes a bit more blocky for the midweek period, with a piece of the upper ridge breaking off and slipping offshore of the northeast coast, with the upper trough lingering across the northern Plains into the upper midwest. Meanwhile, the surface high pressure slides offshore of the northeast coast Wed aftn/evening. This will provide a bit more of a marine layer influence in the lower levels, with some additional clouds developing across the area Wed aftn and evening into Thu.
Otherwise, continued dry and comfortable again Wednesday afternoon with high temps into the lower 80s inland, and in the upper 70s near the coast. Overnight low temps Wed night/Thu morning generally in the mid 50s inland to the low/mid 60s near the coast under an increasingly cloudy sky.
Clouds linger through much of Thursday, with high temps in the mid to upper 70s to around 80 degrees. Partly to mostly cloudy Thursday night but remaining dry. Low temps fall to around 60 degrees inland with low to mid 60s closer to the water.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 300 PM EDT Tuesday...
Rex block pattern finally starts to break down Thu night and Fri, which allows the upper trough to the northwest and its attendant strong sfc cold front to swing east Fri into the weekend. Surface high pressure moves well offshore ahead of the approaching upper trough/front Friday. This will allow for one more mild day Friday with high temps in the mid to upper 70s. A weak coastal trough off the SC/GA coast will spread moisture NNW across the Carolina coastal plain and the Hampton Roads area.
Generally slight chance PoPs across the region (mainly) from midday Friday into Friday evening ahead of the approaching cold front. 12z guidance is trending into better agreement but temporal differences remain with respect to the timing of the frontal passage across the area. The GFS remains the fastest of the bunch with the front moving through late Friday into early Saturday. The ECMWF and to a lesser extent the GEM (per their respective biases) are each a bit slower and wetter, with a slower progression (keeping showers around into Saturday afternoon).
Either way, given the dry antecedent airmass and with forcing for ascent maximized north of our region, this system is unlikely to bring much precip, to the region before moving offshore with PoPs generally 20-30% for isolated to widely scattered showers.
Anomalously strong upper trough swings east across the northeast CONUS late Friday night into Saturday morning.
After a mild start to Saturday, markedly cooler and drier air spills across the area on increasingly gusty NNW winds Sat afternoon and evening. Max temps Saturday will be highly dependent on the frontal timing (A faster frontal passage will bring cooler temperatures, a slower fropa would portend a warmer day). At this time, have nudged highs down a degree or two toward the low temperatures Friday night/Sat morning, with highs Sat only in the mid to upper 60s inland, low 70s along the coast.
Much cooler for the remainder of the extended forecast period with lows Saturday night falling into 40s inland with low 50s near the coast. Cool and breezy on Sunday and Monday, with highs only topping out in the low to mid 60s despite considerable sunshine. Sunday night looks to be the coolest we've seen in quite some time with lows in the low 40s for the Piedmont, mid 40s for the I-95 corridor and upper 40s to low 50s at the coast.
Thicknesses (and NBM 5th and 10th percentile values) do argue that a few of the typically colder, more rural spots along the US-15 corridor NW of Richmond could dip into the upper 30s.
Dry conditions then persist for much of the first half of next week, with high temps Tuesday in the 60s with early morning lows Tue and Wed mornings falling back into the 40s .
AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 800 PM EDT Tuesday...
Mainly VFR conditions through the 00Z TAf period, but some patchy fog development could affect SBY and PHF between about 06-12Z/Wed. After any early fog/low stratus Wed morning, VFR conditions prevail for the remainder of the day and through Wed evening. Mainly SKC, except for SCT aftn clouds across SE VA/NE NC. Winds will be light/variable in the morning, becoming easterly at 5-10kt in the aftn.
Outlook: VFR conditions continue Wed night through Thu outside of any patchy ground fog that may again develop prior to sunrise. A cold front approaches from the W Fri and crosses the area on Sat bringing a minimal chance of rain showers. Drying out, with winds shifting to the W-NW and becoming a bit breezy in the wake of the front later Saturday through Sunday.
MARINE
As of 300 PM EDT Tuesday...
High pressure remains overhead through late week, gradually moving NE through the week. High pressure moves off of New England Thurs into Fri ahead of the next weather system. This will result in a prolonged period of light winds over the waters with winds generally out of the NE at 5-10 kt this afternoon through Fri. Winds do become E briefly tonight before turning back to NE. A strong shortwave deepens Fri into Sat as it dives SE into the Great Lakes, eventually lingering over interior New England Sat night into early next week as a cutoff low. At the surface, a low occludes over SE Canada into the Great Lakes Fri into early next week, pushing a seasonally strong cold front through the area Fri night into Sat. Behind the cold front, CAA will ramp up with winds becoming NW 15-25 kt with gusts 25-30 kt. Winds may reach SCA level by early Sat afternoon if the GFS/Canadian are correct with the EURO a slow outlier (late Sat afternoon). Winds are expected to remain elevated into Sun before becoming W ~15 kt Sun afternoon through Mon. SCAs will be needed for this surge. A few showers will also be possible with the front.
Waves and seas were 1-2 ft (2-3 ft at the mouth of the bay) and 4-6 ft (4 ft N and 4-6 ft S) this afternoon. Seas are expected to subside to 3-4 ft except 4-5 ft across the S coastal waters tonight.
Expect seas across the NC coastal waters to subside below 5 ft Wed morning. As such, SCAs remain in effect until 10 PM for the VA coastal waters from Cape Charles Light to the VA/NC border and 10 AM Wed for the NC coastal waters. Seas are expected to build to 5-7 ft Sat through Sun night behind the cold front.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ658.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 906 PM EDT Tue Oct 3 2023
SYNOPSIS
High pressure slowly builds south across the from the eastern Great Lakes through tonight, and remains near the region through Thursday bringing dry and warm conditions. A strong cold front will approach from the west late Thursday and Friday, crossing the area Friday night into early this weekend, bringing cooler and more autumn-like conditions For Saturday night through much of next week.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
As of 845 PM EDT Tuesday...
Latest weather analysis indicates ~1022mb sfc high pressure centered across the VA coastal plain this evening. Aloft, a broad ridge of high pressure is noted over the eastern CONUS with a deep upper trough lifting across the intermountain west toward the central and southern high plains.
There are a few spotty areas with BKN cloud cover across interior southern VA, but overall mainly clear conditions prevail, with temperatures primarily ranging through the 60s.
Will maintain the mention of patchy fog overnight/early Wed morning, mainly over interior southern VA/NE NC and the eastern shore where sfc winds should be calm. Wed morning low temps in the low-mid 50s across most areas, with upper 50s to lower 60s at the immediate coast and over urban locations.
SHORT TERM /8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
As of 300 PM EDT Tuesday...
Upper pattern becomes a bit more blocky for the midweek period, with a piece of the upper ridge breaking off and slipping offshore of the northeast coast, with the upper trough lingering across the northern Plains into the upper midwest. Meanwhile, the surface high pressure slides offshore of the northeast coast Wed aftn/evening. This will provide a bit more of a marine layer influence in the lower levels, with some additional clouds developing across the area Wed aftn and evening into Thu.
Otherwise, continued dry and comfortable again Wednesday afternoon with high temps into the lower 80s inland, and in the upper 70s near the coast. Overnight low temps Wed night/Thu morning generally in the mid 50s inland to the low/mid 60s near the coast under an increasingly cloudy sky.
Clouds linger through much of Thursday, with high temps in the mid to upper 70s to around 80 degrees. Partly to mostly cloudy Thursday night but remaining dry. Low temps fall to around 60 degrees inland with low to mid 60s closer to the water.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 300 PM EDT Tuesday...
Rex block pattern finally starts to break down Thu night and Fri, which allows the upper trough to the northwest and its attendant strong sfc cold front to swing east Fri into the weekend. Surface high pressure moves well offshore ahead of the approaching upper trough/front Friday. This will allow for one more mild day Friday with high temps in the mid to upper 70s. A weak coastal trough off the SC/GA coast will spread moisture NNW across the Carolina coastal plain and the Hampton Roads area.
Generally slight chance PoPs across the region (mainly) from midday Friday into Friday evening ahead of the approaching cold front. 12z guidance is trending into better agreement but temporal differences remain with respect to the timing of the frontal passage across the area. The GFS remains the fastest of the bunch with the front moving through late Friday into early Saturday. The ECMWF and to a lesser extent the GEM (per their respective biases) are each a bit slower and wetter, with a slower progression (keeping showers around into Saturday afternoon).
Either way, given the dry antecedent airmass and with forcing for ascent maximized north of our region, this system is unlikely to bring much precip, to the region before moving offshore with PoPs generally 20-30% for isolated to widely scattered showers.
Anomalously strong upper trough swings east across the northeast CONUS late Friday night into Saturday morning.
After a mild start to Saturday, markedly cooler and drier air spills across the area on increasingly gusty NNW winds Sat afternoon and evening. Max temps Saturday will be highly dependent on the frontal timing (A faster frontal passage will bring cooler temperatures, a slower fropa would portend a warmer day). At this time, have nudged highs down a degree or two toward the low temperatures Friday night/Sat morning, with highs Sat only in the mid to upper 60s inland, low 70s along the coast.
Much cooler for the remainder of the extended forecast period with lows Saturday night falling into 40s inland with low 50s near the coast. Cool and breezy on Sunday and Monday, with highs only topping out in the low to mid 60s despite considerable sunshine. Sunday night looks to be the coolest we've seen in quite some time with lows in the low 40s for the Piedmont, mid 40s for the I-95 corridor and upper 40s to low 50s at the coast.
Thicknesses (and NBM 5th and 10th percentile values) do argue that a few of the typically colder, more rural spots along the US-15 corridor NW of Richmond could dip into the upper 30s.
Dry conditions then persist for much of the first half of next week, with high temps Tuesday in the 60s with early morning lows Tue and Wed mornings falling back into the 40s .
AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 800 PM EDT Tuesday...
Mainly VFR conditions through the 00Z TAf period, but some patchy fog development could affect SBY and PHF between about 06-12Z/Wed. After any early fog/low stratus Wed morning, VFR conditions prevail for the remainder of the day and through Wed evening. Mainly SKC, except for SCT aftn clouds across SE VA/NE NC. Winds will be light/variable in the morning, becoming easterly at 5-10kt in the aftn.
Outlook: VFR conditions continue Wed night through Thu outside of any patchy ground fog that may again develop prior to sunrise. A cold front approaches from the W Fri and crosses the area on Sat bringing a minimal chance of rain showers. Drying out, with winds shifting to the W-NW and becoming a bit breezy in the wake of the front later Saturday through Sunday.
MARINE
As of 300 PM EDT Tuesday...
High pressure remains overhead through late week, gradually moving NE through the week. High pressure moves off of New England Thurs into Fri ahead of the next weather system. This will result in a prolonged period of light winds over the waters with winds generally out of the NE at 5-10 kt this afternoon through Fri. Winds do become E briefly tonight before turning back to NE. A strong shortwave deepens Fri into Sat as it dives SE into the Great Lakes, eventually lingering over interior New England Sat night into early next week as a cutoff low. At the surface, a low occludes over SE Canada into the Great Lakes Fri into early next week, pushing a seasonally strong cold front through the area Fri night into Sat. Behind the cold front, CAA will ramp up with winds becoming NW 15-25 kt with gusts 25-30 kt. Winds may reach SCA level by early Sat afternoon if the GFS/Canadian are correct with the EURO a slow outlier (late Sat afternoon). Winds are expected to remain elevated into Sun before becoming W ~15 kt Sun afternoon through Mon. SCAs will be needed for this surge. A few showers will also be possible with the front.
Waves and seas were 1-2 ft (2-3 ft at the mouth of the bay) and 4-6 ft (4 ft N and 4-6 ft S) this afternoon. Seas are expected to subside to 3-4 ft except 4-5 ft across the S coastal waters tonight.
Expect seas across the NC coastal waters to subside below 5 ft Wed morning. As such, SCAs remain in effect until 10 PM for the VA coastal waters from Cape Charles Light to the VA/NC border and 10 AM Wed for the NC coastal waters. Seas are expected to build to 5-7 ft Sat through Sun night behind the cold front.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ658.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD | 11 mi | 57 min | SSW 5.1G | |||||
| LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA | 16 mi | 57 min | SW 4.1G | 65°F | 72°F | 30.17 | ||
| SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD | 21 mi | 57 min | SW 2.9G | 67°F | 72°F | 30.16 | ||
| NCDV2 | 22 mi | 57 min | 0G | 65°F | 73°F | |||
| COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD | 28 mi | 57 min | ESE 5.1G | 67°F | 30.18 | |||
| BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD | 38 mi | 57 min | S 6G | 70°F | 72°F | 30.18 | ||
| BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD | 47 mi | 45 min | 0 | 62°F | 30.15 | 62°F | ||
| YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA | 47 mi | 45 min | WSW 1.9 | 58°F | 30.18 | 58°F | ||
| CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD | 48 mi | 57 min | S 1.9G | 64°F | 70°F | 30.18 |
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (on/off) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KNUI WEBSTER NOLF,MD | 16 sm | 8 min | calm | 1/2 sm | Clear | Fog | 61°F | 61°F | 100% | 30.16 |
| KXSA TAPPAHANNOCKESSEX COUNTY,VA | 19 sm | 20 min | calm | 5 sm | Clear | Mist | 57°F | 57°F | 100% | 30.18 |
| KNHK PATUXENT RIVER NAS/TRAPNELL FIELD/,MD | 21 sm | 16 min | calm | 7 sm | Clear | 63°F | 61°F | 94% | 30.17 | |
Wind History from NUI
(wind in knots)Mount Holly
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:45 AM EDT 0.06 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:33 AM EDT 1.68 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:04 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 11:56 AM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 12:36 PM EDT 0.10 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:47 PM EDT Sunset
Tue -- 06:48 PM EDT 1.92 feet High Tide
Tue -- 09:24 PM EDT Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:45 AM EDT 0.06 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:33 AM EDT 1.68 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:04 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 11:56 AM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 12:36 PM EDT 0.10 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:47 PM EDT Sunset
Tue -- 06:48 PM EDT 1.92 feet High Tide
Tue -- 09:24 PM EDT Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Mount Holly, Nomini Creek, Virginia, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.1 |
| 1 am |
| 0.1 |
| 2 am |
| 0.3 |
| 3 am |
| 0.7 |
| 4 am |
| 1.1 |
| 5 am |
| 1.5 |
| 6 am |
| 1.6 |
| 7 am |
| 1.7 |
| 8 am |
| 1.4 |
| 9 am |
| 1 |
| 10 am |
| 0.6 |
| 11 am |
| 0.3 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 4 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 5 pm |
| 1.6 |
| 6 pm |
| 1.9 |
| 7 pm |
| 1.9 |
| 8 pm |
| 1.7 |
| 9 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 10 pm |
| 1 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.7 |
Point Patience
Click for MapFlood direction 315° true
Ebb direction 145° true
Tue -- 01:19 AM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 02:43 AM EDT 0.33 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 04:45 AM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 07:03 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 08:31 AM EDT -0.69 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 11:56 AM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 12:09 PM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 02:45 PM EDT 0.68 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 05:42 PM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:46 PM EDT Sunset
Tue -- 09:22 PM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 09:43 PM EDT -0.99 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for MapFlood direction 315° true
Ebb direction 145° true
Tue -- 01:19 AM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 02:43 AM EDT 0.33 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 04:45 AM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 07:03 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 08:31 AM EDT -0.69 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 11:56 AM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 12:09 PM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 02:45 PM EDT 0.68 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 05:42 PM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:46 PM EDT Sunset
Tue -- 09:22 PM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 09:43 PM EDT -0.99 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Point Patience, 0.1 mile southwest of, Maryland Current, knots
| 12 am |
| -0.4 |
| 1 am |
| -0.1 |
| 2 am |
| 0.2 |
| 3 am |
| 0.3 |
| 4 am |
| 0.2 |
| 5 am |
| -0.1 |
| 6 am |
| -0.3 |
| 7 am |
| -0.5 |
| 8 am |
| -0.7 |
| 9 am |
| -0.7 |
| 10 am |
| -0.6 |
| 11 am |
| -0.3 |
| 12 pm |
| -0.1 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 6 pm |
| -0.1 |
| 7 pm |
| -0.5 |
| 8 pm |
| -0.8 |
| 9 pm |
| -1 |
| 10 pm |
| -1 |
| 11 pm |
| -0.9 |
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