Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Fairmount, MD

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 350 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Dry and much warmer today with highs in the low to mid 60s.

Robust (994mb) clipper low is noted near the Great Lakes early this morning with a sharp lee trough east of the higher Appalachian terrain. Strong westerly flow aloft over the mountains is supporting an area of mid and high level clouds over the northern half of the area. Temperatures are much warmer than this time last night with obs showing mid 30s to low 40s over much of the area. SW winds have increased to around 10 mph inland and 10-15 mph near the coast. Low temps for the overnight period mostly happened prior to midnight before winds picked up.

Mild temperatures are expected today as low level flow remains from W/SW (downslope) with mostly sunny skies and rising heights aloft.
Continued to go a few degrees above guidance with highs in the low to mid 60s. It will remain breezy this afternoon, especially near the coast. A weak southern stream disturbance lifts NE toward the area tonight, bringing an increase in clouds and chances for light rainfall from west to east by early Monday morning. Warmer tonight as well with low temps in the mid 30s to low 40s.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
As of 350 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Light rainfall moves across the region Monday with a chance for lingering showers across the south overnight.

- Additional light showers are possible on Tuesday before precip chances increase sharply overnight ahead the next cold front.

Latest guidance shows widespread light rainfall moving across the area Monday morning with most of the precip near or offshore by mid to late afternoon. Not expecting much QPF with this first batch of rainfall with perhaps 0.25" for the western Piedmont counties, tapering to 0.10" or less for areas east of I-95. Mostly cloudy through the morning but some thinning of the cloud cover is possible over the northwestern half of the area during the afternoon hours.
Temps top out in the mid to upper 50s. Will maintain chance PoPs across the south Monday night but not expecting much more than a few hundredths of an inch of precip. Clouds fill back in Monday night with lows ranging from the mid 40s over most of the area to the low 50s for SE VA and NE NC.

Chance PoPs continue into Tuesday but with minimal QPF expected.
Southerly low level flow will allow temps to rebound into the 60s despite mostly cloudy skies. Low pressure develops along a cold front to our west by late Tuesday afternoon and lifts NE toward the northern Mid-Atlantic Tuesday night as the northern and southern stream disturbances phase. PoPs increase from west to east with periods of light to locally moderate rainfall, especially after midnight. Temperatures will not fall much Tuesday night with lows staying the 50s to low 60s.



LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 350 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Low pressure lifts northward into New England with widespread rainfall expected across the region.

- Surface cold front moves through the entire area by Wednesday evening, bringing an end to precip chances and much colder/drier air Thursday into the weekend.

Locally moderate rainfall will continue Wednesday ahead of the cold front. Highest PoPs will be during the morning hours but guidance indicates an anafrontal nature to the precip with plenty of mid- level lift lingering behind the surface front. QPF with this system will be quite welcome with area averages generally 1.25-1.75".
Temperatures will be tricky on Wednesday with many locations seeing their daily max temps late morning or early afternoon with falling temps thereafter. Winds become westerly and gusty behind the surface front. Highs range from the mid 50s NW to the mid and upper 60s SE.
Rain chances will diminish quickly from west to east during the late afternoon into the evening with everything moving offshore by midnight. Staying breezy overnight with clearing skies and low temps falling into the mid 20s along and west of I-95 with upper 20s and low 30s to the east.

Dry and much colder Thursday and Friday with highs only in the upper 30s to mid 40s. The coldest night of the period looks to occur Thursday night with light winds and mostly clear skies. Temps fall into the upper teens to low 20s for most of the area with mid and upper 20s to around 30 degrees along the coast. Slow moderating trend in temperatures Saturday with highs in the 40s to low 50s from NW to SE.



AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 350 AM EDT Sunday...

VFR conditions prevail through 06z TAF period. Mid and high level clouds continue to stream into the northern half of the area this morning but are not expected to result in any restrictions. Guidance shows the potential for LLWS at RIC through mid morning or so as SW low level flow quickly transitions to westerly around 40 kt aloft. SW winds increase to 10-15 kt with gusts around 20 kt across the region by mid morning as mixing gets underway. Winds decrease by early evening mostly clear skies before midnight. Clouds increase from west to east late tonight but should stay in VFR territory through sunrise on Monday.

Outlook: Rain chances return Monday through Wednesday with periodic flight restrictions likely before a strong cold front moves through the region late Wednesday.

MARINE
As of 215 AM EST Sunday...

Key messages:

-SCAs remain in effect for the Chesapeake Bay, coastal waters, Lower James River, and Currituck Sound through midday today for SW winds of 15-25 knots with gusts up to 30 kt.

-Sub-SCA conditions return from tonight-Tuesday night, although a brief period of SCAs is possible on Monday (mainly on the bay).

-A frontal system will bring another round of SCAs from Wednesday through Thursday. A brief period of low-end gale force gusts cannot be ruled out late Wednesday-Wednesday night.

Expansive high pressure is centered well to our south (along the Gulf coast) early this morning while a clipper system is tracking eastward through Ontario/Quebec. The tightening pressure gradient between these two features is resulting in a WSW-SW wind of 15-25 kt over the bay/ocean. Winds are a bit lighter over the far SE VA and NE NC coastal waters. Seas are 2-5 ft, with waves likely in the 2-4 ft range. SCAs remain in effect for the Ches Bay, coastal waters, Currituck Sound, and Lower James River until 18z/1 PM today as the elevated winds continue this morning before gradually diminishing later today. S-SW winds will average around 10 kt tonight with seas subsiding to 2-3 ft.

Mainly sub-SCA conditions are expected from Monday-Tuesday night.
The only exception to this may be a brief (3-6 hour) period of 18-20 kt southerly winds from the late morning-afternoon on Monday. SSW winds diminish to ~10 kt by Monday night. Local wind probabilities for sustained 18 kt+ winds actually rise to 70-90% for a few hours on the bay (from 11 AM-3 PM Mon). Given the wind direction, seas should stay just below 5 ft on Monday. Will allow the current headlines to expire before considering SCAs for Monday. The next period of more impactful SCAs looks to be from Wednesday morning into Thursday ahead of and behind a strong cold front. S/SW winds once again increase to 15-25 kt ahead of the front by Wed AM. Winds abruptly switch to the WNW Wednesday evening following the FROPA...with sustained winds averaging ~25 kt (w/ frequent 30-35 kt gusts) behind the front Wed evening-early Thu AM. With rather sharp pressure rises/decent CAA expected for a few hrs following the FROPA...still think there is the potential for a 3-6 hour period of 35-40 kt gusts sometime between 5 PM Wed-2 AM Thu. Note that the exact timing of the FROPA is still a bit uncertain. Seas build to 4- 6 ft by Wed AM before building to 5-8 ft Wed night. Waves on the bay will mainly be 3-4 ft from Wed-Wed night, with 5 ft waves possible near the mouth of the bay. Sub-SCA conditions should return by Thu night.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ630>634-638-650-652-654-656-658.