Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Piney Point, MD

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A highly amplified synoptic pattern is evident across the nation. The main features of interest include a pair of closed lows over the Canadian Maritimes and central/southern High Plains, with a subtropical ridge centered over the Gulf of America into the western Caribbean. More locally, the region is within a steady northwesterly flow aloft. This continues to promote fair weather with some stratocumulus clouds across central/northeastern Maryland and high cirrus streaming overhead. Boundary layer profiles remain well mixed with plenty of higher momentum air mixing down to the surface. As a result, conditions remain breezy today with northwesterly gusts up to 25 to 30 mph. These winds largely persist through the remainder of the afternoon into the early evening before slowly dropping off.
Based on temperature trends, most can expect highs to reach the 70s with a few 80 degree readings closer to I-64. As usual, the mountains will be cooler with high temperatures in the upper 50s to 60s.

Eventually stratocumulus clouds should erode into the night with winds diminishing as the boundary layer begins to decouple.
The dry nature of the air mass should facilitate in a rather quick cooling trend into the overnight hours. The current forecast package calls for low temperatures in the mid/upper 40s, with low to mid 50s along and east of I-95. Along the Allegheny Front, expect lows to fall into the upper 30s to low 40s. As the low-levels saturate, some patchy fog may develop along the Alleghenies eastward to perhaps the Shenandoah Valley.
Some of the colder Allegheny mountain valleys may see some patchy frost. However, the overall coverage of frost formation appears too low to yield any Frost Advisories.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
Quiet conditions are likely for the first half of Tuesday before the next weather maker impacts the area. While rainfall does not arrive until later in the day, high clouds are expected to increase from west to east. Through early Tuesday evening, initial shower activity will largely be confined to areas west of the Blue Ridge. Eventually all of this activity overspreads locations to the east through overnight hours. High temperatures on Tuesday should largely range from the upper 60s to mid 70s, slightly cooler in the mountains. The added cloud cover and rainfall will hold nighttime temperatures in the 50s.

The evolving pattern remains somewhat complex as a slew of separate shortwaves and closed lows track eastward toward the local area. As a pair of disturbances eject out of the Great Plains, some interaction with a northern stream upper low peeling southward from Quebec is likely. In the net, this pattern will favor several periods of rainfall, particularly on Wednesday as the better fetch of Gulf moisture sweeps northward into the region. While most locations remain in drought, there are some quite vulnerable to flooding concerns given last Tuesday's (May 13) hydrologic event. Most notably, this would include western Maryland down into Mineral County, West Virginia, as well as portions of the Blue Ridge Mountains.

Looking more closely at the rainfall forecast, a broad inch is possible, with higher amounts west of U.S. 15 in Maryland and portions of the West Virginia panhandle. While the main frontal zone should be anchored closer to the Virginia/North Carolina border, an occlusion will extend northward to the primary low in eastern Ohio. This is the focus of some locally heavier rainfall which may have some convective elements attached to it. As a result, forecast amounts of around 2 inches are noted over Garrett and Allegany, perhaps higher if some of the more robust guidance verifies. Consequently, this area will need to be monitored for potential flooding on Wednesday.

After spending the day wedged in with high temperatures in the upper 50s to 60s, expect diurnal ranges to stay low into Wednesday night with lows in the upper 40s to 50s (slightly cooler in the mountains). Some breaks in the rain are possible as an area of low pressure materializes off the southeastern Virginia coast.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A very active upper-level pattern will continue into early next week as a very slow-moving and broad upper-low remains centered over eastern Canada into the Great Lakes/Northeast CONUS regions. Several loves of shortwave energy rotating around the parent upper-low will likely result in multiple round of precipitation throughout this timeframe. The exact timing for each of these features beyond Thursday is somewhat uncertain, but at this point none of them really seem to have any sort of signal for any significant impacts at this point. Rain is likely Thursday into early Friday as one of the stronger lobes of energy rotates through the region. Beyond that, things just become a bit too uncertain. There will be more waves of energy, but will there be much moisture to go with them? That is the biggest question at this point.

At any rate, cooler than average temperatures can be expected during this time with highs in the 50s and 60s each day. Portions of the I- 95 corridor will reach the low 70s Saturday and Sunday, though still remaining below normal. Overnight low temperatures will be in the 40s and 50s each night.

AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Expect VFR conditions to continue through Tuesday evening as high pressure remains situated to the north over Ontario. A breezy northwesterly wind persists through early this evening with gusts up to around 20 to 30 knots. These should eventually drop off into the night. Clouds increase through the day on Tuesday ahead of the next weather maker. However, any rainfall should hold off until Tuesday evening into the night. This likely starts a lengthy period of restrictions across the area terminals.

For Wednesday, a cold air damming signature is evident which will keep conditions cool and cloudy, with widespread rain expected. IFR conditions will likely persist with a breezy easterly wind gusting to around 15 to 20 knots. This pattern holds into Wednesday night with further restrictions expected.

Chances for rain continue through the end of the week, and potentially even into this weekend. Sub-VFR conditions are likely Thursday into Friday, but become a bit less likely from late Friday onward into the weekend due to lots of uncertainty regarding the exact evolution of the upper-level pattern.

MARINE
Small Craft Advisories remain in place across all waters given the breezy northwesterly wind gusting 20 to 25 knots. Winds slowly shift over to northerly by tonight. As this occurs, the focus will turn to northerly channeling, with Small Craft Advisories in place for the main channel of the Chesapeake Bay.
These are in effect through the entire overnight period, with some residual winds possible early Tuesday morning.

For much of Tuesday, expect quieter conditions across the marine waters. However, a ramp up in easterly flow will support another round of Small Craft Advisories for Tuesday night into Wednesday. Easterly gusts of 20 to 25 knots are currently in the forecast.

Low pressure takes shape off the coast which shifts winds to northwesterly on Thursday. SCA criteria winds are expected in the southern portions of the waters both Thursday and Friday afternoon.
Northwest winds gust 15 to 20 both days.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
By late Tuesday, the combination of strong high pressure to the north over Ontario with low pressure passing through to the south, winds will shift to easterly while strengthening in time.
During a 36-hour period stretching from Tuesday night through Thursday morning, there will be an increasing threat for Minor tidal flooding at the more sensitive locations. In particular, this would include Annapolis where the Steven's ensembles show an outside chance of Moderate flooding. Water levels eventually drop off on Thursday as winds shift to northwesterly.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for MDZ008.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ530-531.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ532>534-537- 543.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ535- 536-538>542.