Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Snow Hill, MD

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 245 AM EST Saturday...

Key Messages:

- A few showers are possible early this morning as a weak frontal passage moves through.

- Dry today behind the front with warm temperatures reaching the lower 70s.

An upper level trough is moving across the NE as a surface low pressure centered north of the Great Lakes region pushes a weak cold front across the area early this morning. Light rain has begun across the piedmont ahead of the front with a few pre-frontal showers towards the SE. These showers will continue to move eastward, losing forcing as it moves eastward. PoPs are highest in the piedmont to Richmond metro at 40-60%, diminishing to around 15% in SE VA/NE NC and will only bring light accumulation to the area, even in areas with higher PoPs. Any showers should dissipate around 7 AM.

Behind the front today, temperatures will be warmer, as there is little to no CAA behind the front. Highs will be above seasonal average in the upper 60s across the eastern shore, lower 70s for VA, and locally mid 70s in NE NC. Skies will clear out this morning behind the front, then increase again late this afternoon. A warm front associated with the next system will approach the area late overnight, passing through the area Sunday morning. With this, rain chances will increase overnight to 40-60%, especially in the SE.
Overnight lows will additionally be warmer than average in the upper 40s in the piedmont, lower 50s inland and the eastern shore, and mid 50s in SE VA/NE NC.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
As of 245 AM EST Saturday...

Key Message:

- Remaining warm on Sunday, chance of showers in the morning from warm front, then becoming breezy.

- Sharply colder temperatures usher in behind a strong cold front beginning Monday with a hard freeze likely Monday night.

The next low pressure system will track NE across the eastern Great Lakes Sunday which will drag the aforementioned warm front across the area in the morning. Showers are likely, moving in a SW-NE motion. A few rumbles of thunder are possible in the SE, but there is limited instability, so chances remain low. Temperatures during the day Sunday will reach the lower 70s for areas NW and mid 70s for areas SE (upper 60s on the eastern shore). Behind the warm front, a strong cold front will move through the area Sunday night into early Monday morning. Scattered showers are expected with this front Sunday afternoon into the overnight hours, especially towards the coast. Given the strong kinematics in place, there is a slight chance of thunder Sunday night with front. SPC has the SE included in a Marginal Risk for severe weather, although this seems to be generous, as instability remains rather weak despite strong shear.
Sunday's lows will be in the lower to mid 40s.

Behind the strong cold front, a significant pattern change will leave Monday in a much colder Canadian airmass. A strong upper level trough will move into the eastern half of the CONUS. Temperatures Monday will only reach the lower 50s (despite the abundance of sunshine). Overnight a hard freeze is likely, with lows in the upper 20 for most and lower 30s along the coast and eastern shore. The 00z/08 ensemble runs continue to hint towards a light rain/snow mix or a few flurries possible Monday night into Tuesday, but the dry air mass behind the front will have to become more saturated for this to occur. Confidence remains low at this time.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 245 AM EST Saturday...

Key Message:

- Cooler temperatures continue Tuesday with near freezing low temperatures.

- Dry weather and moderate temperatures for the middle to end of next week.

The strong upper level trough that will bring the chilly Canadian airmass will begin weakening late Tuesday, but not before another cold day on Tuesday. Highs will only reach the upper 40s, even with clear skies. Overnight lows will be near freezing inland and mid 30s along the coast. Then, the trough will lift away from the area and weaken causing a stark contrast in temperatures between Tuesday and Wednesday. Seasonal temperatures will return for mid to late week with highs in the upper 50s/lower 60s and lows in the upper 30s/lower 40s. Dry weather will persist into late week as surface high pressure influences the area.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 630 AM EST Saturday...

A weak cold front is crossing the area early this morning. The front will push offshore by late morning, leaving FEW/SCT high clouds and VFR conditions throughout the day. WNW winds of ~10kt will become light and variable by late afternoon and into the night. A warm front is expected to lift across the area early Sunday. This will bring a chc of showers with sub-VFR conditions possible. Conditions will likely begin to deteriorate by 09z/09 with IFR and locally LIFR CIGs possible. Lower VIS is possible with heavier showers.

Outlook: A stronger cold front will cross the region later Sunday aftn and evening bringing sub-VFR conditions and chc of showers with a few tstms possible across SE VA and NE NC.
Conditions will improve Monday through Wednesday with dry and VFR weather.

MARINE
As of 200 AM EST Saturday...

Key Messages:

- A strong cold front impacts the region Sunday night into Monday, with elevated winds and seas extending expected Monday into the middle of next week.

- Gale conditions are likely for at least the coastal waters Monday night into Tuesday.

Early this morning, a warm front is draped over the waters and a cold front is approaching from the NW. Winds have decreased from earlier this evening, with S to SW winds ranging from 10 to 15 knots over the bay and 15 to 20 knots over the coastal waters. Small Craft Advisories have been allowed to expire over the Chesapeake Bay but remain in effect over the northern coastal waters until 7 AM. The cold front crosses the waters later this morning with winds become W to NW in its wake but remaining light/sub-SCA due to a lack of significant CAA. Winds eventually become light and variable later this afternoon into this evening with high pressure briefly returning ahead of our next (stronger) system.

Another, much stronger, cold front approaches the waters on Sunday before crossing the waters late Sunday night into Monday morning. A strong northward surge in winds is anticipated along the initial cold frontal passage in the ~06z/1 AM timeframe Monday AM, with strong SCas likely and brief gusts >34 knots possible. SCA-level winds linger through most of Monday before a stronger push of CAA arrives Monday night into Tuesday. Given the degree of airmass change (850 mb temps dropping to -8 to -10 C) over still-relatively mild waters, Gale conditions appear increasingly likely. The highest probability for gale conditions continues to be over the ocean, but are also possible on the Chesapeake Bay (especially near the mouth/lower Bay). Gale Watches will likely be needed by later today or tonight.
Winds gradually diminish Tuesday afternoon, but still remain near high-end SCA. Winds turn west and then southwest by the midweek period, likely remaining at or above SCA thresholds into Thursday.

Seas of 3 to 5 feet are possible through this morning, highest N. A benign sea state then returns later today and Sunday, before increasing again later Sunday and remaining elevated through most of next week.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.