Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Snow Hill, MD

KEY MESSAGES
1). A cold front crosses the area this morning bringing light rain showers and much cooler temperatures. Fire weather concerns are possible on Monday.

2). Patchy frost and/or perhaps a light freeze is looking likely for Tuesday morning. A warming trend then begins mid to late week with minimal rain chances expected.

DISCUSSION
As of 325 AM EDT Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...A cold front crosses the area this morning bringing light rain showers and much cooler temperatures. Fire weather concerns are possible on Monday.

Morning weather analysis shows a upper trough centered over the Eastern half of the United States. At the surface, a strong low pressure system is tracking over Eastern Canada and its cold front is draped across the spine of the Appalachian mountains. Ahead of the front high level clouds have begun to move over the area, with temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s across VA & NC and low 60s to upper 50s along the Eastern Shore.

The approaching cold front is progged to move through the area later this morning. Behind the front, winds will shift out of the NW and will increase to 15 to 20 MPH, with gusts between 25 to 30 mph. Will note, there is a potential that some gusts may near 35mph. In addition, temperatures will rapidly drop 15-20 degrees with the passing front and showers. Temperatures are progged to drop from the lower 60s to 60s into the upper 50s. As the front and showers move out of the area and skies begin to clear to the west temperatures have the possibility of rebounding back into the upper 50s to low 60s in the mid to late afternoon. Rain chances for tomorrow remain on track with decent coverage of light rain showers from mid to late morning to the mid afternoon. As for rain amounts, there continues to remain a decent agreement within the models. Most models and ensembles continue to show rainfall amounts between .1-.2" inches (highest NW, lowest east). Will note that some of the high-res models are showing slightly higher amounts with the heavier showers.

Behind the front Sunday night a much cooler and drier airmass will move into place. Temperatures Sunday night into early Monday morning will fall into the low 40s and upper 30s inland and middle 40s along the coast. For Monday, a secondary cold front is progged to move over the area. This cold front is expected to remain a dry as models have backed off any precipitation and the airmass will have been already depleted of any moisture from the first passing cold front.
A drier airmass will eventually be in place Monday helping to drop RH values between 20-25% with perhaps some lower values across the piedmont. In addition, winds will also increase out of the NW with gusts between 20-25mph. Fire Weather concerns look likely on Monday due to the low RH and winds. However, it all depends on how much precipitation falls today (Sunday).

KEY MESSAGE 2...Patchy frost and/or perhaps a light freeze is looking likely for Tuesday morning. A warming trend then begins mid to late week with minimal rain chances expected.

Model guidance for Monday continues to remain consistent with a strong high pressure moving out of the NW and settling over the area Monday night into Tuesday AM. Frost/light freeze is likely for inland locations, especially across the NW Piedmont. Will note there still is some uncertainty due to the extremely dry airmass in place leading to low dew points. Due to the uncertainty no Freeze Watches have been issued at this time. Trends in the models will continue to be monitored and perhaps freeze watches maybe issued at a later time. Elsewhere temperatures will drop into the mid 30s perhaps leading to patchy frost formation. Again due to the dry airmass not expecting widespread frost. Along the coast temps will be in the upper 30s to low 40s.

Tuesday afternoon the high pressure will slide off the SE coast allowing temperatures to moderate (though still remaining below average, especially on the coast and the Eastern Shore). Then through the middle to the end of the week temps return back above normal with highs into the 70s and 80s. As for rain chances, they continue to to remain quite minimal. The best chance for precipitation as of the forecast update is Wednesday as a cold front moves out of the north. Will also note, that this front could potentially lower temperatures Wednesday.

AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 107 AM EDT Sunday...

VFR/dry conditions across the region to begin the 06 TAF period. The low level clouds over SBY have finally cleared and they have returned back to VFR conditions.

A cold front approaches from the west tonight and crosses the area later this morning. Clouds increase ahead of the front tonight and winds become gusty out of the SW. The front crosses the area between ~11 to 15z, with anafrontal (post-frontal)
light rain showers pushing through the region. CIGs /VSBY may briefly approach MVFR in heavier showers, but a quick return to VFR is expected by early-midafternoon. Winds become gusty out of the N to NW post-frontal with gusts of 20-25+ knots possible late morning and afternoon.

Outlook: Conditions returning to VFR Sunday night through Tuesday. Gusty NW winds are anticipated again Monday afternoon.
Another front may drop south across the area Wednesday into Thursday, bringing at least a low-end chance for rain showers and increasing cloud cover.

MARINE
As of 325 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Solid SCA conditions are expected today behind a strong cold front with a brief period of gale force gusts immediately behind the front.

- A secondary cold front crosses the region Monday. Additional SCA conditions are possible across the Chesapeake Bay Monday afternoon into Monday night.

A cold front is approaching from the NW early this morning, with a warm front lingering across the northern Delmarva. The wind across the local marine area is primarily S 10-15kt and occasionally 15- 20kt. Seas are 2-3ft with waves in the Ches. Bay ~2ft. The front crosses the coast this morning into early aftn, primarily from 12- 18z (8AM-2PM). The wind shifts to NNW behind the front. 00z/19 NAM/GFS each continue to depict sharp pressure rises of 5-6mb/3hr in the immediate wake of the cold front with 950mb wind speeds of 35- 40kt. Local wind probs continue to show a 50-70% chc of 34kt gusts for the Ches. Bay and 60-80% for the coastal/offshore waters S of Parramore Is., as well as about 40-60nm offshore of the MD coast.
However, the duration is short and generally 2hr or less.
Additionally, the probability for sustained 34kt is less than 20% for the offshore waters out 20-60nm. Therefore, SCAs remain in effect for the frontal passage and any gale force gusts (35-40kt suggested by the 950mb wind) immediately behind the front can be handled with SMWs. SCAs for the Ches. Bay and lower James are in effect for the pre-frontal southerly flow. Otherwise, the remainder of the marine zones (aside from the offshore waters) have SCAs beginning at 7AM and 10AM for the post-frontal NNW surge. The pressure gradient slackens quickly later this aftn and evening with SCAs ending during this time. Seas build to 4-5ft in the coastal waters and 5-7ft in the offshore waters/southern coastal waters, with 3-4ft waves in the Ches. Bay.

The wind becomes W 5-15kt tonight, and then WNW 10-15kt early Monday. A secondary cold front crosses the coast Monday aftn, with a subsequent northerly surge following for later Monday aftn and Monday night. At this time the Ches. Bay has the best potential for additional SCA flags. High pressure passes across the region Tuesday and settles offshore by mid to late week, with a weak backdoor cold front potentially nudging into the area by later in the week. Sub- SCA conditions expected to prevail aside from Tuesday night/early Wednesday when a SSW increases to 15-20kt across the Ches. Bay/lower James and coastal waters, bringing the potential for low-end SCAs for the Ches. Bay and lower James. 3-4ft seas Monday should subside to 2-3ft by Tuesday, with 2-3ft waves in the Ches. Bay Monday/Monday night subsiding to 1-2ft Tuesday. Seas build to 3-4ft later Tuesday night/early Wednesday with 2-3ft waves in the Ches. Bay, subsiding to 2-3ft/1-2ft later in the week.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ630>632-634.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ633.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ635>637.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ639.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ650-652-654.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ656-658.