Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Chance, MD

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
As of 230 PM Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Scattered showers and storms across northern areas and the Eastern Shore through the evening.

Early afternoon analysis shows the low pressure that gave us our drizzly weather yesterday has now moved offshore of New Jersey and continues to shift northward. The parent low pressure system is still situated over the Great Lakes Region. Here locally, a cold front is working to cross our CWA from the west. Skies broke free of the low stratus earlier this morning across the southern and central portions of the area, but Salisbury and the Maryland Eastern Shore has remained locked into the low clouds and drizzle all morning. We are finally seeing a few breaks in the clouds up there and that has allowed for scattered showers and storms to develop early this afternoon. A pocket of 500-1000 J/kg of CAPE, decent lapse rates, and a bit of shear will result in the possibility of isolated strong wind gusts and hail with any stronger cell that is able to develop. SPC has placed the Northern Neck, Middle Peninsula, and Eastern Shore in a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) for severe weather this afternoon and evening. According to hi-res guidance, the severe threat will prevail through about 8pm, with a few showers lingering after that. However confidence in seeing severe weather is low, especially as they move further east with the stable environment lingering closer to the coast. West/northwesterly breezes will subside after sunset.

Most places will keep the passing mid to high level clouds around tonight. Overnight low temperatures will hover around the 50 degree mark inland, with mid 50s by the coast. Typical cooler spots, such as Louisa and surrounding locations could dip into the upper 40s.

SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
As of 230 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Dry and cooler weather is expected through the first half of the Memorial Day Weekend.

The coastal low will depart its vacation house in Nantucket Friday morning and heads towards coastal Maine as a trough fills in behind it across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. This may allow a shower or two to linger across the coast on Friday, especially on the Maryland Eastern Shore. The rest of the area will remain dry under mostly sunny skies as high pressure nudges in from the west. To the north, expect more partly to mostly cloudy skies. Highs will be in the low to mid 70s for most everyone, with upper 60s for the Eastern Shore.
Skies will be clear overnight, allowing low temperatures to fall into the mid to upper 40s inland, with 50s near the coast.

High pressure will be overhead on Saturday giving way to a pleasant start to the holiday weekend. Mostly clear skies and highs in the mid 70s south/lower 70s north are expected. Overnight lows will once again drop into the upper 40s inland, with 50s closer to the coast.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 230 PM EST Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Becoming unsettled later Sunday into next week as multiple systems approach the region.

Models continue to show another system approaching the region later Sunday that could bring some rainfall to our area. Timing of arrival for the rainfall continues to trend slightly slower and be suppressed further south, which hopefully means we can salvage most of Sunday with dry weather. Though, there will definitely be increasing cloud cover regardless. High temperatures Sunday will range from the low to mid 70s if the timing trends don't bring the rain in any earlier in the day. The Memorial Day holiday on Monday may feature cloudy skies and scattered rain showers/storms, so keep an eye on the forecast updates over the next several days if you have outside plans to see how this system evolves. The weather pattern looks to remain much more unsettled for the rest of the work week as several weather systems pass through the area bringing rain chances. Temperatures will continue to run below average for late May, with highs mainly in the 70s each day (some 80s far SE) and overnight lows in the 50s and 60s.

AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 110 PM EDT Thursday...

The low stratus deck has broken for southern and central areas, leaving scattered cumulus and a batch of high clouds for most terminals. The Eastern Shore, including SBY, continues to be stuck under the low stratus and IFR/low-end MVFR conditions, though CIGs should begin to break and improve in the next few hours. A cold front is approaching the area, which has led to scattered showers and storms developing north of RIC, moving east. SBY has the highest confidence of being impacted with RA/TSRA through ~00z. Can't rule out isolated gusty, erratic winds and even some hail with any stronger cell. VIS reductions may be possible too. Winds are WNW at 10-15kt with gusts up to 20-25kt early this afternoon, but should subside once the cold front passes this evening.

Outlook: Dry and VFR conditions prevail Friday into Saturday.
However, can't rule out a stray shower across the Eastern Shore on Friday. A better chance of showers and degraded flight conditions return later Sunday into Monday.

MARINE
As of 340 PM EDT Thursday...

- Small Craft Advisories are in effect through this evening and early tonight. Elevated seas on the ocean may persist for the next day or two.

- Additional Small Craft Advisories possible Friday afternoon and again Friday night.

- Lighter winds return for the holiday weekend.

Gusty westerly winds have developed this afternoon behind a cold front, especially in the lower Chesapeake Bay, tidal rivers, and nearshore coastal waters. Winds speeds are generally 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt, though a few elevated sites are in the 20-25 kt range with occasional gusts to 30 kt. Much lower wind speeds are present in the upper bay and earlier Small Craft Advisories there were cancelled. Elsewhere, SCAs are in effect for the James and York Rivers through 23z/7 PM, lower bay through 02z/10 PM, and coastal waters until 05z/1 AM Friday (except ANZ656, which ends the evening). The SCAs on the coastal waters are mainly due to elevated seas from the offshore low pressure's swell. Seas range from 3-4 ft S to 4-8 ft N. In fact, buoy 44009 offshore of the MD/DE border has consistently been reporting 8-9 ft seas this afternoon. Based on this, seas may continue to run high through the night and additional extensions to the ocean SCAs may be required. Otherwise, beyond tonight, a persistent period of near SCA criteria winds is expected Friday through Saturday morning with two elevated wind periods of higher confidence: in the lower bay and in the rivers Friday afternoon with gusty westerly flow and for the entire bay and perhaps coastal waters Friday night due to a push of cold advection.
These winds will also increase bay waves to 2-3 ft.

Lower winds and seas are expected Saturday and Sunday with transient high pressure sliding over the area. Unsettled weather and degraded marine conditions potentially return early next week as low pressure tracks near the area.

A HIGH risk of rip currents is forecast this afternoon for northern beaches with MODERATE for southern beaches. A moderate risk of rip currents is forecast at all beaches Friday.



TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
As of 345 PM EDT Thursday...

Tidal anomalies are still running high (between 1-2' above MLLW)
this afternoon, despite the offshore wind direction. Given this, another cycle of nuisance to low-end minor flooding is expected with the high tide cycle this evening/tonight. Coastal Flood Statements have been issued for most locations adjacent to the bay and rivers. Depending on the water level evolutions over the next few hours, a few locations (particularly Lewisetta and Tappahannock) may need to be upgraded to an Coastal Flood Advisory. Anomalies should fall later tonight, but may still remain elevated enough to cause continued nuisance flooding in vulnerable locations.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ632- 634.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ636>638.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Friday for ANZ650-652-654.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ656.