Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Cobb Island, MD

KEY MESSAGES
1) Well above normal temperatures with mostly dry conditions are expected through Friday. Record breaking highs are possible Wednesday.

2) Much cooler temperatures arrive this weekend. Frost is possible across portions of the area.

DISCUSSION
As of 325 AM EDT Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Well above normal temperatures with mostly dry conditions are expected through Friday. Record breaking highs are possible Wednesday.

High pressure is building into the region from the SW early this morning. A surface low and cold front are noted across MI. Mainly clear skies and light winds are allowing for areas of ground fog across the area. A more widespread area of fog may develop across the Piedmont/I-95 corridor prior to sunrise.

Ridging will continue to spread NE from the Gulf Coast today, resulting in mostly clear skies and well above normal temperatures this afternoon. High temps climb into the low and mid 80s inland and upper 70s to low 80s near the coast. Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 60s. Heights build aloft on Wednesday with record breaking high temps looking increasingly likely. Blended guidance shows high temps in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees. However, all the statistical guidance is a degree or two warmer with widespread low 90s for inland locations. Went a bit above the blended guidance but not as high as the MOS would suggest for now. Regardless, this results in highs above the record temps for the day Wednesday. See the climate section below for specific values. Records could be broken by several degrees at the main climate sites. A cold front will approach the region from the N Wednesday night and is forecast to cross most of the local area on Thursday. 00z guidance shows the front making it much through most if not all of the area before stalling. This will allow for a break in the heat for the majority of the CWA on Thursday with highs ranging from near 70 degrees across the northern counties, mid to upper 70s along and south of I- 64, and low to even mid 80s near and south of the VA/NC border.
Clouds will thicken from N to S Thursday as the front drops south.
In addition, some weak isentropic lift north of the front could result in generally light rain across the northern third of the area Thursday. QPF is on the order of a few hundredths of an inch. A deep upper trough is forecast to dig across the Great Lakes Thursday night into Friday with a strengthening surface low over the Ohio Valley. Southerly flow ahead of this feature will allow the front to lift back northward as a warm front Friday morning. High temps rebound into the upper 70s to low 80s N with mid and upper 80s S. It will become breezy out of the SW by Friday afternoon. Some showers and thunder are also possible, primarily across NE portions of the area Friday afternoon.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Much cooler temperatures arrive this weekend. Frost is possible across portions of the area.

Rapidly deepening low pressure will translate NE into New England on Friday with a strong cold front extending back to the southwest.
This front will cross the local area Friday evening into early Saturday with significant cold advection moving into the region.
Some additional precip is possible along and ahead of the frontal passage, mainly over the eastern half of the area before midnight.
QPF does not look nearly as impressive as a front of this strength would suggest. Strong (1035mb+) high pressure builds into the region behind the front with upper troughing remaining over the eastern CONUS, resulting in well below normal temperatures this weekend.
Afternoon highs likely struggle to get out of the 50s across the northern half of the CWA despite mostly sunny skies. Low 60s are forecast for the southern half of the area. It will also be quite breezy on Saturday with gusts 25-30mph, and especially near the coast where winds could gust 30-35mph. Overnight low temps tumble into the mid to upper 30s in the Piedmont with low to mid 40s for the remainder of the area Saturday night. Upper 30s and low 40s are forecast Sunday night into Monday. Some frost is possible in the Piedmont with this airmass.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 115 PM EDT Tuesday...

Prevailing VFR expected through the 18z TAF period with mainly SKC, dry conditions, and 5-10 kt S/SSW winds.

Outlook: Outside of early morning localized patchy fog/stratus, VFR conditions look to prevail through at least Wednesday. A cold front drops south later Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing increased cloud cover and low-end rain chances to portions of the area. A stronger front crosses the area Friday.

MARINE
As of 240 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Benign marine conditions prevail through Thursday night.

- A strong cold front crosses the waters late Friday into this weekend. Strong SCA to Gale conditions are likely Friday night through early Sunday.

Latest analysis reveals W-SW winds ~10 kt across the region this afternoon, as high pressure builds along the southeast coast. Waves 1 ft or less on the rivers, Sound, and Bay. Seas averaged 2-3 ft.

High pressure builds just offshore of the coastal Carolinas through midweek, with mainly pleasant/benign boating conditions expected through Wed night. S-SW winds persist tonight and tomorrow 5-10 kt, turning S-SE nearshore with the afternoon sea breeze. A backdoor front still looks to drop across the waters late tomorrow night into Thursday, with winds veering to the NNE post-frontal. Winds look to remain mainly sub-SCA (~15 kt Rivers/Bay/Sound, ~20 kt over the coastal waters)
through this period. However, internal wind probability guidance continues to key in on a short period of SCA-level winds in the lower Bay Thursday morning. Guidance shows a 50-70% probability of winds ~20 kt in this area between 8 am and around noon on Thursday, before winds diminish and veer to the S-SE Thu afternoon and evening. Wind waves from the onshore flow should also increase seas to 3-4 ft during this period, with waves 2-3 ft, highest at the mouth of the Bay.

A quickly deepening surface low over the eastern Great Lakes Friday and Friday night still looks to push a second, much stronger cold front toward the local waters late Friday into the weekend. The compressing gradient ahead of that front will likely result in increasingly gusty S-SW winds late Friday morning and especially Friday afternoon, and a short period of SCA-level winds are possible. That front crosses the waters Friday night into early Saturday, with strong SCA-level winds forecast for all waters. Local wind probs are also showing that Gale Force gusts are looking increasingly likely, with probabilities trending up to 30-60+% in the bay and 80-90% over the coastal waters, also peaking in the late Friday night to midday Saturday time frame.

Transient high pressure is quick to slide in behind the front Saturday afternoon into Sunday, allowing winds to veer to the NNE and gradually diminish Saturday night into Sunday morning.
Waves/seas peak Saturday into Saturday evening, ranging from 3-6 ft over the Bay and 5-8 ft over the coastal waters.

CLIMATE
Record High Temperatures:

10/13 10/14 RIC 90/1954 87/1975 ORF 89/1954 86/1975 SBY 86/1954 86/1975 ECG 87/1990 86/1975

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.