Saturday, November28, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Cobb Island, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:02AMSunset 4:49PM Saturday November 28, 2020 12:17 AM EST (05:17 UTC) Moonrise 4:00PMMoonset 5:13AM Illumination 96% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ537 Tidal Potomac From Cobb Island To Smith Point- 941 Pm Est Fri Nov 27 2020
Rest of tonight..N winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Sat..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sat night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Rain.
Mon..SE winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming S in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 3 ft. Rain.
Mon night..W winds 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tue..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Wed..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
ANZ500 941 Pm Est Fri Nov 27 2020
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A cold front will cross the waters early Saturday. A strong storm system will affect the region early next week with gale force conditions possible.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cobb Island, MD
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location: 38.22, -76.75     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 272327 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 627 PM EST Fri Nov 27 2020

SYNOPSIS. Weak low pressure continues to push away from the coast this evening. High pressure builds in from the west on Saturday and becomes centered over the region Saturday night through early Sunday. A strong storm system is expected to affect the region late Sunday night into Monday. High pressure builds back in from the southwest Tuesday and Wednesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/. As of 615 PM EST Friday .

Only change to the near term forecast is that more patchy fog was added to the grids overnight. New hi-res guidance is hinting at dense fog over SE VA and NE NC overnight. Still believe that there will be some patchy dense fog over the southern VA piedmont as well. For the moment will keep the wording as patchy instead of areas. The rest of the forecast remains on track.

Previous discussion .

Latest analysis shows a weak cold front now sliding off the NC coast with a westerly flow aloft. All shower activity is now off the coast as well, but there is still a stubborn area of low clouds in place over NE NC and far SE VA (southside Hampton Roads). Skies are partly sunny elsewhere across the local area with temperatures in the mid to upper 60s in areas that have seen sun and in the upper 50s to lower-mid 60s where it has been more cloudy.

Satellite trends suggest skies will finally partially clear out over the next few hrs in the SE (and may even avg out mostly clear into the early evening across much of central VA). A shortwave trough is currently located over the midwest and will move ESE overnight, crossing the local area Sat morning. Thus, will tend to see some increase in cloud cover overnight and with some at least limited mixing, fog should be much less widespread compared to last night/early this morning. if there is any fog, it is most likely across south central VA and interior SE VA/interior NE NC. Low temps tonight range from near 40F across the far NW to 45-50F across the SE. The shortwave passes off the coast by late morning, and expect to see skies become mostly sunny from NW to SE as drier air moves in from the NW. Still mild with a NW wind around 10 mph and highs reaching mainly into the low to mid 60s.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. As of 330 PM EST Friday..

High pressure settles over the area Sat night/Sunday. This results in clear skies and light winds Sat night, and cooler lows in the 30s (lower 40s SE coast). Sunny for the first half of Sunday, with increasing aftn clouds (especially across the SW portion of the CWA). High temps on Sunday will mostly be into the lower 60s (mainly upper 50s eastern shore).

Attention then turns to a potent system in the deep south that will interact with a strong upper trough diving S from the upper midwest Sun night. Phasing of the northern and southern stream occurs by Monday morning, with a sfc low rapidly deepening from eastern TN as of 06Z/Mon, and moving NNE along the spine of the Appalachians into Monday morning, and then across western PA or NY Mon aftn. While there are some timing and spatial differences among the models, the overall agreement between the GFS/ECMWF and their ensemble means is good. This leads to a high confidence forecast for a widespread rain event late Sun night through late Mon morning as a warm from lifts N through the CWA. Additional showers/isolated tstms generally shift E of I-95 by late morning through the aftn as a dry slot is progged to move in from the SSW. Total QPF amounts look to avg 1.00 to 2.00" (most of it prior to Mon aftn). Locally higher amounts will be possible given convective elements that become possible during the day Mon. Shear is impressive with models showing a strong LL jet (45-55 kts) moving across the area Monday morning through mid afternoon. As is often the case, instability will be limited, the greatest threat for any strong/severe tstms residing along the coast where somewhat warmer temperatures and better mixing is expected due to slightly more favorable instability parameters. Will carry slight chance tstms at some point Mon for all zones except the far NW of the CWA. In addition to the rain, expect breezy conditions with a few stronger wind gusts in some of the more robust convective cells (again especially along the coast and across the eastern shore). Clearing conditions by Monday aftn along/W of I-95 and a few hrs later near the coast as the cold front pushes further away from the coast. High temps on Monday range from the lower to mid 60s W to the lower 70s SE. Sharply colder Monday night with temperatures falling to the mid 30s W to lower 40s E.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. As of 315 PM EST Friday .

Low pressure at the surface and aloft is progged to track northward and away from the region on Tuesday and Wednesday. Meanwhile, high pressure slowly builds in from the SW before becoming centered over the area Wednesday night/early Thu AM. Am still expecting cool/mainly dry conditions from Tue-Thu (with the exception of perhaps a shower or two across the Ern Shore on Tuesday). Temperatures will be a bit below seasonal averages, with highs on Tue and Wed in the upper 40s-around 50F and overnight lows in the mid 20s-low 30s in most areas. The surface highs slides offshore on Thursday as another upper low dives southward over the central CONUS while a ridge amplifies over the wrn third of the US. Our next chc of pcpn is likely to be very late next week or next weekend. Exact details will depend on the exact evolution of the aforementioned upper low. For now, have slight chc-chc PoPs (for rain) at the tail end of the period.

Slightly warmer temperatures are expected by the end of next week. Forecast highs on Thursday/Friday are mainly in the 50s. Forecast lows Thursday night are mainly in the 30s.

AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. As of 615 PM EST Friday .

Still some IFR/MVFR ceilings over far SE VA and NE NC early this evening, mainly impacting ECG. Otherwise, VFR to start the period at the remaining terminals. Patchy dense fog is expected overnight, but shouldn't be as widespread as last night. Trended lower with ceilings and visibilities at PHF/ORF/ECG, while keeping RIC/SBY at VFR. Improving conditions after sunrise, with VFR expected at all locations from late morning through the rest of the TAF period. Winds light and variable overnight becoming N/NW 5-15 kts during the day Saturday.

OUTLOOK . Mainly VFR conditions prevail over the weekend as high pressure dominates. A potent storm system will impact the region Sun night through Mon with the potential for heavy rain and windy conditions. Flight restrictions are likely Sun night through at least midday Mon. Dry/VFR Mon night through Wed.

MARINE. As of 315 PM EST Friday .

A weak frontal boundary has pushed just to the SE of the local waters this aftn, with N winds averaging 5-10kt. Waves were 1-2ft with seas of 2-3ft. Sub-SCA marine conditions are expected to prevail through the weekend as a surface high currently over the Plains slowly builds eastward. That high is progged to become centered over the waters on Sunday AM before moving offshore by the end of the day. N to NW winds will average ~10kt tonight and 10-15kt on Sat. Winds become more northerly Sat night and briefly increase to ~15kt on the bay during the first part of the night (while remaining around 15kt on the ocean). Winds diminish to ~5kt and turn to the NE by late Sun AM as the high settles over the waters. Winds then become SE at ~10kt by Sun evening as the high moves offshore. Seas remain 2-4ft, with mainly 1-2ft waves on the bay from now-Sun evening.

Attention then turns to a deepening surface low that is progged to be centered over the Deep South Sunday evening. This strong low will quickly track over the Appalachians late Sun night through the day on Monday. The low is expected to be over upstate NY by Monday evening as its associated cold front crosses the waters from WSW to ENE. Pressure falls of 8-10mb/6hr will result in strong SE then S winds (25-35kt with gusts up to 40kt) in advance of the front late Sun night through early Mon aftn. The highest winds are expected over the northern coastal waters. Seas build to 7-12ft on Monday, with 3-6ft waves on the Ches Bay. While it is still 60-72 hours out, Gale Watches will likely be considered for at least the coastal waters in subsequent forecast packages. Winds become SW and briefly diminish to 15-20kt by late Monday evening before increasing to 20- 25kt by Tuesday morning as more robust CAA arrives behind the front. Winds remain W-SW at 15-25kt through Wed morning before slowly diminishing late Wed-Thu AM as high pressure returns. SCAs will likely be needed for a majority of the waters through at least Wed AM.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . None. NC . None. VA . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . CMF/LKB NEAR TERM . CMF/LKB SHORT TERM . CMF/LKB LONG TERM . ERI AVIATION . CMF/LKB MARINE . ERI/TMG


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 13 mi47 min NNW 1 G 1
NCDV2 17 mi47 min Calm G 1 52°F 55°F
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 17 mi47 min Calm G 2.9 54°F 57°F
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 22 mi47 min NNW 4.1 G 5.1 53°F 55°F
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 23 mi137 min N 4.1 G 5.1 55°F 1016.5 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 29 mi29 min W 3.9 G 3.9 54°F 55°F
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 38 mi47 min Calm G 1 53°F 54°F
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 39 mi47 min Calm 1016 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 44 mi47 min ESE 1 G 2.9 52°F 53°F
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 47 mi47 min Calm 52°F 51°F

Wind History for Piney Point, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St Marys County Airport, MD12 mi22 minN 010.00 miOvercast50°F46°F88%1016.6 hPa
St. Inigoes, Webster Field, Naval Electronic Systems Engineering Activity, MD18 mi24 minN 010.00 miA Few Clouds53°F48°F86%1015.7 hPa
Patuxent River, Naval Air Station, MD19 mi85 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy54°F48°F80%1016 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for K2W6

Wind History from 2W6 (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3N3N4NE3CalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoS6S5S5S4S6S6S4S6S4SW6SW7SW9SW9SW5W6W5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3S3S3S6S5S6S6SW10
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SW6SE4S5SE3CalmE4CalmCalm--S5S5

Tide / Current Tables for Colton's Point, Maryland
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Colton's Point
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:06 AM EST     1.66 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:12 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 06:30 AM EST     0.04 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:02 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 01:19 PM EST     1.88 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:59 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:47 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 07:21 PM EST     0.03 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.61.71.51.10.60.30.10.10.30.61.11.51.71.91.81.510.60.30.10.10.30.71.1

Tide / Current Tables for Point Patience, 0.1 mile southwest of, Maryland Current
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Point Patience
Click for MapFlood direction 315 true
Ebb direction 145 true

Sat -- 03:28 AM EST     -0.64 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 05:11 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 07:01 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:06 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 09:42 AM EST     0.65 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 12:37 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 03:58 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:38 PM EST     -0.96 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 04:46 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 09:12 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 10:29 PM EST     0.27 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.1-0.3-0.5-0.6-0.6-0.5-0.3-00.30.60.60.50.2-0.1-0.5-0.8-0.9-1-0.8-0.6-0.4-0.10.20.3

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.