Thursday, January28, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Cobb Island, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:14AMSunset 5:26PM Thursday January 28, 2021 2:20 AM EST (07:20 UTC) Moonrise 5:20PMMoonset 7:25AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ537 Tidal Potomac From Cobb Island To Smith Point- 203 Am Est Thu Jan 28 2021
.small craft advisory in effect until 6 am est early this morning...
.gale warning in effect from 6 am est this morning through late tonight...
.small craft advisory in effect from Friday morning through Friday afternoon...
Overnight..N winds 15 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of rain and snow.
Thu..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Gusts up to 35 kt... Increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon. Waves 4 ft.
Thu night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Waves 4 ft.
Fri..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Waves 3 ft.
Fri night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Sat..NW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sat night..SE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of snow.
Sun..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Snow likely through the day. Rain likely.
Mon..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 ft. Rain likely in the morning, then a chance of rain. A chance of snow through the night.
ANZ500 203 Am Est Thu Jan 28 2021
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. Low pressure will impact the waters today. High pressure will gradually return Friday into Saturday. Another storm system will impact the region late in the weekend into early next week. Small craft advisories may be required Friday night and Saturday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cobb Island, MD
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location: 38.22, -76.75     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 280717 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 217 AM EST Thu Jan 28 2021

SYNOPSIS. Low pressure tracks south of the local area through early this morning then moves away from the coast through the rest of today. High pressure builds across the region tonight into Saturday. Another low pressure system will affect the region Sunday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/. As of 205 AM EST Thursday .

Trends on radar and sfc obs showing fcst generally on target. Upper level trough beginning to enter the region from the W and a cooling atmos is leading to a transition of rain-snow from W-E over srn half of the FA. A few areas of enhanced pcpn now developing INVOF scentral VA/interior NE NC and that is expected to spread E into far SE VA and across the rest of NE NC the next few hrs as column-cooling occurs. One-2 inch accums still on target . poss isolated 3" amts can't be ruled out. Even accums to near the coast are likely (but there will likely be a battle rain vs snow right along the bay/ocean as long as winds remain more NE than N. A buffer area (about 50-75 mi) just N of the heavier pcpn will result in lgt snow/flurries w/ mininal accums. Winter advisory will remain in place as is for now.

Sfc lo pres will continue to develop/strengthen (well) SE of HSE through early-mid this morning before pulling out offshore today NNE winds have become gusty near the coast. and will become NNW today w/ gusts to 35-45 mph at the coast . 25-30 mph farther inland. Lingering pcpn near coastal SE VA-NE NC until after sunset . otw clearing expected today. Highs in the u30s- near 40F w/ winds chills avgg in the 20s.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/. As of 210 AM EST Thursday .

Quieter wx Thu night through Saturday. With shortwave ridging aloft continuing to pivot S into the area, ushering in markedly colder/drier across the region. Look for early morning lows in the upper teens to 20s . with highs only in the u30s-l40s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. As of 355 PM EST Tuesday .

Unsettled weather pattern looks to continue into the medium range with the potential for another storm system to impact the area for the second half of the weekend into early next week. High pressure near the Hudson Bay will ridge southward into the Mid-Atlantic region Saturday night with stacked low pressure over the central CONUS. A CAD wedge looks likely to setup across the region on Sunday as high pressure continues to bring cool/dry air into the region east of the higher Appalachian terrain. The primary low pressure area will weaken and slowly lift into the Ohio Valley Sunday night with new low pressure taking shape across the eastern Carolinas in a typical 'Miller B' cyclone evolution. The coastal low will become the dominant feature by Monday morning. Guidance is in relatively good agreement regarding the overall evolution but significant differences remain with respect to thermal profiles and timing. For now, will show a chance of light snow Sunday morning with a rain/snow mix spreading northward during the day as warmer marine air comes into the area on the NW side of the strengthening coastal low. The low will be slow to move away from the area Monday into the overnight. Colder air will eventually come in as the low pulls away from the coast Monday night/Tuesday morning but depth of available moisture and chance for further frozen precip is uncertain at this time. ECMWF ensembles probs for 3" accumulation have increased to 60- 80% for the climatologically favored Piedmont and northern I-95 corridor.

High pressure builds into the region behind the low Tuesday night into Wednesday with a return to drier weather.

AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. As of 210 AM EST Thursday .

CIGs continuing to lower across srn/SE VA-NE NC as rain becomes mixed w/ or changes to snow through early this morning. Most CIGs expected to be MVFR . though won't rule out IFR CIGs . esp at ECG. VSBYs in snow likely to lower to less than 3 NM. NNE winds increase to 10-15 kt with gusts to 25 kt inland (RIC) and 15-20 kt with gusts 20-25 kt near the coast (ORF/PHF/ECG/SBY). Winds become NNW today with clearing/VFR conditions returning by late morning/early afternoon. Winds remain breezy/windy through the day at 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt inland and 20-25 kt with gusts to 35 kt along the coast and at SBY. VFR conds to prevail Thu night-Sat night. More flight restrictions poss by Sun into Mon as lo pres crosses the region.

MARINE. As of 415 PM EST Wednesday .

Late this aftn, weak high pressure was centered over the area, providing northerly winds 5-15 kt. Seas were 2-3 ft, with waves of 1-2 ft.

Low pressure is still progged to deepen, as it tracks across the Carolinas tonight, before exiting quickly out to sea during the latter part of Thu morning (and through the remainder of the day on Thu). The low will rapidly intensify shortly after it moves off the coast. N winds increase to ~20 kt by around 06z Thu on the bay/ocean. Then, by late Wed night into Thu morning, winds become NNW and will increase to 25-35 kt (highest over the srn coastal waters) in the wake of the storm system. The strongest winds will occur from Thu morning through Thu evening before diminishing slightly late Thu night. Gusts 35-40 kt will be common for the Ches Bay/Currituck Sound/Coastal Waters/Lower James River, and around 30 kt for the upper rivers during this time. So, Gale Warnings are now in effect for the ocean/bay/Lower James/Currituck Sound into/through Thu evening or through late Thu night. A secondary (fairly strong) CAA surge arrives late Thu night/Fri morning with robust (850 mb temps are progged to bottom out between -15 and -17C N of Cape Charles). CAA continues during the day on Fri. This will result in at least the continuation of solid/strong SCA conditions, with a decent chc of gale gusts north of Cape Charles (mainly from 12-21z Fri). Will hold off on extending the warnings, given that it would be more than 48 hours out. Additionally, cannot rule out some light freezing spray over the coastal waters N of Parramore Island late Thu night/Fri morning. NW or N winds will slowly diminish Fri night into Sat morning. Winds should finally fall below SCA thresholds by late Sat morning. Seas are expected to top out between 7-10 ft with waves on the Bay 4-5 ft (perhaps 6 ft at the mouth).

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . Wind Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 6 PM EST this evening for MDZ021>025. NC . Wind Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 6 PM EST this evening for NCZ017-102. Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for NCZ012. Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for NCZ013>017-030>032. VA . Wind Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 6 PM EST this evening for VAZ095-098>100-525. Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for VAZ065- 066-079-087-088-092. Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for VAZ093- 095>098. MARINE . Gale Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ630>632-650- 652-654. Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Friday for ANZ634-656-658. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST Friday for ANZ635>637. Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ633-638.

SYNOPSIS . ALB/MAM NEAR TERM . ALB SHORT TERM . ALB/MAM LONG TERM . RHR AVIATION . RMM MARINE . ERI/TMG


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44042 - Potomac, MD 26 mi27 min NNE 19 G 23 35°F 41°F1017.9 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 29 mi27 min NNE 21 G 23 35°F 40°F998.8 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 39 mi51 min ENE 4.1 34°F 1018 hPa25°F

Wind History for Piney Point, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St Marys County Airport, MD12 mi26 minN 6 G 1710.00 miOvercast32°F23°F69%1017.9 hPa
St. Inigoes, Webster Field, Naval Electronic Systems Engineering Activity, MD18 mi28 minN 10 G 2210.00 miOvercast38°F24°F57%1017.5 hPa
Patuxent River, Naval Air Station, MD19 mi29 minN 19 G 2510.00 miOvercast and Breezy0°F0°F%1017.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for K2W6

Wind History from 2W6 (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW3SW4W3W4W4W3CalmN5NW8NW7
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NW6NW6NW3NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmNE4CalmN6NE4NE4
1 day agoE4NE5CalmCalmCalmE4CalmCalmCalmNE3W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmW3CalmW3W3W5
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE4E5E3NE4E5E4NE3NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmE4--NE5NE3E3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Colton's Point, Maryland
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Colton's Point
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:09 AM EST     1.57 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:14 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:25 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 07:44 AM EST     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:17 PM EST     1.82 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:18 PM EST     Full Moon
Thu -- 05:20 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:25 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 08:34 PM EST     -0.11 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.21.51.61.51.10.60.2-0-0.10.10.40.91.41.71.81.71.410.60.2-0.1-0.10.10.5

Tide / Current Tables for Point Patience, 0.1 mile southwest of, Maryland Current
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Point Patience
Click for MapFlood direction 315 true
Ebb direction 145 true

Thu -- 01:04 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 04:40 AM EST     -0.55 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 07:13 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:24 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 08:06 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 10:50 AM EST     0.68 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 01:44 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 02:18 PM EST     Full Moon
Thu -- 05:18 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:24 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 05:50 PM EST     -1.06 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 10:28 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 11:48 PM EST     0.30 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.20-0.2-0.4-0.5-0.5-0.5-0.3-00.30.60.70.50.3-0.1-0.5-0.8-1-1.1-1-0.8-0.5-0.10.2

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