Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Rock Point, MD

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 230 PM EDT Monday...

Key Message:

- Mainly clear and not quite as cool tonight. Early morning lows mainly in the 40s to lower 50s.

Latest wx analysis reveals high pressure over the local area this afternoon, with an upper low edging east of Atlantic Canada and an amplifying upper level ridge building over the eastern third of the CONUS. Winds have turned around to the E-SE, with temperatures well into the 70s inland and upper 60s to around 70 along the coast as of this writing. Highs in the low to mid 70s still look good by late afternoon.

Cool/dry tonight with light southerly flow persisting. Look for early morning lows to settle into the mid 40s-lower 50s under a mostly clear sky.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
As of 230 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Warming temperatures and continued dry conditions are expected Tuesday.

- Very warm on Wednesday with mid to upper 80s expected.

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected Wednesday afternoon and evening, with the best chances along and south of I-64. Organized severe weather is not expected, but a few stronger storms remain possible with gusty winds as the main threat.

The ridge aloft crests over the east coast Tuesday before sliding offshore through midweek. Meanwhile, the sfc ridge slides into position off the SE coast, allowing low-level flow to veer to the SSW and increase. Frequent gusts to 20-25 mph are likely Tuesday afternoon and evening. Strong WAA allows highs to climb into the lower to mid 80s (upper 70s on the eastern shore) tomorrow. CAMs still show some convection develops west of the mountains Tue aftn/evening, crossing the mountains and likely weakening (and eventually dissipate) as it approaches the area early Wed AM, as instability will be very limited east of the mountains thanks to the lower dewpts. However, any residual boundaries from dissipating tstms may contribute to convective initiation over the local area Wed aftn. While a cold front approaches from the N on Wed, it will slow and ultimately stall Wed aftn before reaching the local area. Even warmer on Wed with continued breezy SW flow. Widespread mid to upper 80s are expected with dewpts rising into the lower 60s by the aftn/evening. The higher Td values allow for moderate surface- based instability (1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE) to develop by the afternoon. This combined with mid/upper height falls due to the ridge becoming suppressed to our SE and any residual boundaries from Tuesday's convection should allow for scattered tstms to develop across the area. While it is hard to pinpoint specifics attm, first look at CAMs for Wednesday continue to highlight the highest tstm chances look to be along and south of I-64, with most likely timing for tstms from 3-10 PM Wed with diurnal weakening expected in the late evening and overnight given relatively weak/unidirectional shear. So while organized severe wx isn't expected owing to the weak shear, a few strong to marginally severe storms are possible, with damaging wind gusts likely being the main threat.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 230 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Highs will be well into the 80s on Thursday and Friday, with continued shower/storm chances.

- Cooler and dry weather returns over the weekend in the wake of a cold front.

Deepening sfc low pressure is progged to track from the Midwest to Quebec from Thursday-Friday night. 12z/28 model trends favor lifting the front back north as a warm front on Thu, keeping the better forcing off to the north, but additional isolated to widely scattered showers and storms will be possible Thu aftn into the evening. PoPs were capped at 30% Thu.

This feature eventually drags a seasonally strong cold front toward the area late Thu into Fri, with that cold front expected to cross the area Friday night/Saturday AM. The associated shortwave trough aloft approaches the local area on Friday, before it crosses the area late Friday into Saturday morning.
We'll maintain above normal temps through Friday, as high pressure remains anchored over the western Atlantic. High temperatures well into the 80s are expected inland on both days. Dewpts will be in the low to locally mid 60s, so it actually feel somewhat humid Thu/Fri. The slow-moving front then looks to bring multiple rounds of showers/tstms Friday evening into Saturday.

LREF/NBM ensembles showing potential for locally strong to severe storms with the frontal passage that will need to be monitored for Friday night. Deep layer shear of 30-35kt (0-6km), and a decent chance (30-50% probability) of MLCAPE of 750-1000 J/Kg also portends at least the potential for some gusty winds with the initial frontal passage Friday evening. Only issue to be ironed out is typical temporal resolution issues, which will be monitored with time.

Latest model trends show the front hanging up along the coast into the day on Saturday, potentially bringing some lingering showers and storms across the SE coast Sat afternoon. Otherwise, drier and cooler weather arrives behind the cold front for the weekend into early next week with highs falling back in the 70s, with lows back into the 40s and 50s.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 1245 PM EDT Monday...

VFR conditions with mainly sunny/clear conditions prevail across area terminals through the 18z/28 TAF period. Light winds shifting to the SE- SSE by mid to late afternoon as high pressure slides offshore. Winds veer to the S-SSW tonight.

Outlook: VFR conditions are expected to prevail through Wednesday morning. Breezy SW winds develop Tuesday, gusting to 20 kt by afternoon. A cold front approaches from the north by later Wednesday into Thursday bringing an increased chance of showers and storms. A stronger front crosses the region late Friday into Saturday, bringing a better chance for widespread showers and storms Friday afternoon into Saturday morning.

MARINE
As of 310 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Generally benign marine conditions continue into early Tuesday.

- Low-end SCAs are possible late Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night as S/SW winds increase.

- A prolonged period of near SCA conditions is possible from Thursday night through the weekend as winds increase ahead of and behind a series of cold fronts.

Early morning surface analysis depicted high pressure across the Ohio Valley and inland portions of the Mid-Atlantic with winds generally N ~10 kt. The high moves over the local waters later today with winds becoming NE 5-10 kt later this morning before becoming SE/E this afternoon. High pressure moves offshore tonight, allowing for winds to become S ~10 kt. S winds increase to 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt by late Tue afternoon into Tue evening, becoming SW Tue night. Wind probs for 18 kt sustained winds remain low (10- 40%) through Tue evening. However, wind probs for 18 kt sustained winds increase to 80%+ across the Ches Bay Tue night with wind probs for 25 kt wind gusts across the N coastal waters increasing to 80%+ as well. As such, marginal SCAs are possible during this timeframe.
However, given that this is largely in the fourth period, will hold off on SCAs for now.

Winds quickly diminish by Wed, remaining light through Thu. An area of low pressure tracks towards the Great Lakes Thu into Fri, with an associated cold front approaching the local waters Fri night. S/SW winds increase to 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt Thu night into early Fri night in the warm sector of the previously referenced low pressure system. The cold front pushes across the local waters Fri night with a lull in the winds Sat before a secondary cold front brings winds back to 15-20 kt Sat night. As such, SCAs are possible both ahead of and behind the first cold front late this week and behind the second cold front this weekend.

Waves and seas remain 1-2 ft and ~2 ft respectively through early Tue. Waves build to 2-3 ft Tue night with seas building to 3-4 ft.
Seas across the N coastal waters may briefly build to 4-5 ft Tue night, however, confidence is low. Another period of elevated seas arrives Fri afternoon into Fri night.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM Tuesday to 7 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ630-631-650-652-654.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM Tuesday to 10 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ632-634.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM Tuesday to 7 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ637-638.