Saturday, December14, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Rock Point, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:15AMSunset 4:48PM Saturday December 14, 2019 10:55 AM EST (15:55 UTC) Moonrise 7:21PMMoonset 9:29AM Illumination 91% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ537 Tidal Potomac From Cobb Island To Smith Point- 939 Am Est Sat Dec 14 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through Sunday afternoon...
Rest of today..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Rain likely late this morning, then a slight chance of showers this afternoon.
Tonight..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Sun..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Sun night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of rain.
Mon night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of rain.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming nw. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Showers likely through the day.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 3 ft.
ANZ500 939 Am Est Sat Dec 14 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. Low pressure will move northeast of the region today. High pressure will briefly build overhead for Sunday before low pressure impacts the area Monday. The cold front associated with this low will pass through Tuesday. Small craft advisories may be needed again on Tuesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Rock Point CDP, MD
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location: 38.23, -76.73     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 141140 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 640 AM EST Sat Dec 14 2019

SYNOPSIS. Low pressure tracks northeast along the eastern seaboard through today. High pressure returns Sunday before the next system impacts the region late Monday and Tuesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. As of 345 AM EST Saturday .

Early this morning, a coastal trough/stationary front extends north from FL along the mid-Atlantic coast to Long Island. Surface low pressure continues to move along this boundary across coastal NC. High pressure is located well off the New England coast, but continues to extend SW down the spine of the Appalachians, allowing for a in-situ wedge setup to persist. Light to moderate rain is ongoing across the eastern half of the region, with this round of rain expected to continue to push off to the NE. Outside of the current rainfall fog, some of it locally dense, has formed. Expect a bit of a break in the precip (at least the steadier rainfall) after this current round exits the region. Fog will linger through the morning hours as NW flow has allowed for some mid-level drying above moist lower levels, especially across the Piedmont. Temperatures have held fairly steady and are expected to stay that way through the remainder of the night with readings ranging from the upper 30s/low 40s west to the low/mid 50s at the coast.

An upper level shortwave pivots back into the region later this morning (~12z) bringing another round of rainfall. This additional area of light to moderate rainfall likely continues into the early afternoon hours before coming to an end from SW to NE by 18z. Cannot rule out a passing shower or two after 18z as additional energy from the shortwave trough still has to cross the area, thus maintained slight chance to chance PoPs until 21z. Some partial clearing is expected for this afternoon (especially across the SW) with drying behind the departing area of low pressure. Skies become mostly clear to partly cloudy tonight. SW winds will increase this afternoon with winds gusting to as high as 25 mph at times. High temperatures will range from the lower 50s NW to the lower 60s across the SE. Low temperatures tonight will generally range from the mid to upper 30s with lower 40s at the coast.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. As of 345 AM EST Saturday .

A weak area of high pressure builds across the southeastern United States on Sunday allowing for dry conditions across the region. Sunday will feature mostly sunny skies and high temperatures in the 50s. Surface high pressure traverses the local area Sunday night, then moves well offshore on Monday. Meanwhile, a cold front will approach the region from the west during the day on Monday with chances for rain increasing from the NW during the late afternoon into the overnight hours. Monday will generally feature warmer temperatures, although increasing clouds and the potential for low stratus/fog Monday morning will prohibit max temps from reaching their full potential. Expect highs to range from the upper 40s to low 50s NW to the low to mid 60s across the SE. Low temperatures Monday night will range from the lower 40s N to the low/mid 50s across the SE.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. As of 400 PM EST Friday .

An upper trough will be located over the central US early next week. A sfc low pressure system is expected to develop across the southern Plains. The low will track northeast as the upper trough moves east. Models have come into closer agreement on the track of the center of the low pressure system. It now looks like the sfc low will track northeast west of the Appalachian Mountains, then track towards the coast north of DC. The will put our entire area in warm sector of the low pressure system. Therefore, high temperatures on Tuesday are expected to approach the upper 60s across southeast VA and northeast NC, near 60 across Delmarva, and upper 50s across central VA. A cold front will push through the region as the center of the sfc low crosses northern NJ/southern NY. Models disagree on the timing of the passage of the front across the area. GFS moves the front off shore well ahead of the ECMWF, likely due to the ECMWF having a more amplified upper level trough across the eastern US. The forecast leans towards the ECMWF with a front moving through Tuesday night with rain likely.

Cooler air and drying conditions will filter into the area after the passage of a cold front Tuesday night. Wednesday morning low temperatures will drop to the upper 20s west of I-95 and upper 30s along the coast. An upper level low pressure will track southeast out of Canada and across the Northeast US Wednesday. This will bring a reinforcing shot of colder air into the region. High temperatures Wednesday will range from the upper 30s across central VA and MD Eastern Shore to mid 40s across Hampton Roads and northeast NC. Low temperatures Thursday morning will be in the low 20s (upper 20s at the VA/NC beaches).

A cold high pressure system will settle across the region Thursday with high temperatures ranging from mid 30s to near 40.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. As of 640 AM EST Saturday .

Widespread IFR/LIFR CIGS continue at all terminals through the through at least mid morning, with varying categories for visibility. The next round of steadier rain is arriving quickly from the SW and will translate eastward to the eastern TAF sites through 18z. Degraded flight conditions will continue into the early afternoon before some drier air finally filters in from the west after 18Z. Outside of any the steady rain, fog has developed and will persist through the morning before improving late this morning/early afternoon. N to E winds less than 10 kt will become S or SW and will become gusty at the coastal terminals by late morning. A gradual return to VFR conditions is expected later this afternoon and evening.

OUTLOOK . VFR conditions expected Sunday into early next week. The next chance of rain and degraded flight conditions comes on Tuesday.

MARINE. As of 345 AM EST Saturday .

Broad low pressure is centered in vicinity of the Mid- Atlantic coast early this morning. The wind is NNW 5-10kt on the western side of the low, and S 10-15kt on the eastern side of the low out near 20nm. Seas remain elevated, and are primarily 5-6ft S and 6-7ft N. There is the potential for 4ft waves in the Mouth of the Bay, so the SCA was put into effect as of 1 am. Low pressure intensifies over New England today into tonight, with the trailing cold front sweeping across the coast later today. The wind will become SW 12-20kt later this morning into mid-aftn. Modest pressure rises occur behind the frontal passage late this aftn into this evening and should result in a W wind of 15-25kt, with the wind lingering into Sunday morning with a secondary pressure rise, before diminishing to 10-15kt in the aftn. Seas are expected to range from 5-7ft S to 6-8ft N today, and gradually subside to 4-6ft tonight as the wind becomes offshore, then further subside to 3-4ft by Sunday aftn. SCAs are in effect for the ocean and mouth of the Bay, and will go into effect early aftn for the remainder of the Bay, Sound, and lower James. The other rivers are marginal and will the wind forecast will remain sub-SCA at this time.

Weak high pressure builds over the area Sunday night and then slides offshore Monday into Monday night ahead of a cold front. This cold front is expected to cross the coast Tuesday, with modest CAA occurring by Tuesday night. A secondary front and another round of CAA are possible later Wednesday into Wednesday night. The wind is expected to become SW 15-20kt ahead of the cold front Monday night, and the become NNW 15-25kt by Tuesday night. The next round of SCAs are likely Monday night through early Wednesday.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . None. NC . None. VA . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Sunday for ANZ634. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST Sunday for ANZ630>632. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Sunday for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Sunday for ANZ638. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Sunday for ANZ650-652-654. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for ANZ656-658.

SYNOPSIS . AJB NEAR TERM . AJB SHORT TERM . AJB/JDM LONG TERM . CP AVIATION . AJB MARINE . AJZ


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 12 mi56 min SW 5.1 G 5.1
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 16 mi56 min Calm G 1.9 46°F 46°F995.6 hPa (-3.3)
NCDV2 17 mi62 min SE 1.9 G 1.9 43°F 47°F995.6 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 21 mi62 min SW 2.9 G 2.9 45°F 44°F996.7 hPa
44042 - Potomac, MD 25 mi32 min WSW 3.9 G 9.7 44°F 47°F996.3 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 28 mi38 min SW 3.9 G 3.9 45°F 996.8 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 37 mi62 min SSW 4.1 G 5.1 46°F 45°F996.5 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 38 mi146 min Calm 45°F 997 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 42 mi62 min ESE 2.9 G 2.9 48°F 44°F995.7 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 47 mi56 min W 1.9 G 1.9 43°F 43°F995.8 hPa (-4.0)
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 49 mi56 min E 2.9 G 2.9 46°F 44°F996.3 hPa (-3.0)46°F

Wind History for Piney Point, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St Marys County Airport, MD11 mi81 minN 01.75 miOvercast45°F44°F100%996.9 hPa
St. Inigoes, Webster Field, Naval Electronic Systems Engineering Activity, MD17 mi63 minVar 41.25 miFog/Mist49°F46°F93%996 hPa
Patuxent River, Naval Air Station, MD18 mi2.1 hrsNNW 30.50 miFog47°F46°F100%997 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNUI

Wind History from NUI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW3CalmCalm3NE63N3N5NE7N6NE8NW3W4CalmCalmW3W3NW4W3SW5W4CalmSW34
1 day agoE7E54E6E5E3CalmCalmCalmN3CalmNE3CalmNE4NE4CalmN3CalmCalmN4NE7NE7NW3N3
2 days agoW9
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Tide / Current Tables for Colton's Point, Potomac River, Maryland
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Point Patience, 0.1 mile southwest of, Maryland Current
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Point Patience
Click for MapFlood direction 315 true
Ebb direction 145 true

Sat -- 12:48 AM EST     0.27 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 02:45 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 06:16 AM EST     -0.51 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 07:14 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:27 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 09:38 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 12:25 PM EST     0.68 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 03:21 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 04:46 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 07:19 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:30 PM EST     -1.08 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.10.30.2-0.1-0.3-0.4-0.5-0.5-0.4-0.20.10.40.70.60.50.1-0.3-0.6-0.9-1.1-1.1-0.9-0.7-0.4

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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