Tuesday, May26, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Rock Point, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:46AMSunset 8:23PM Tuesday May 26, 2020 4:35 PM EDT (20:35 UTC) Moonrise 7:57AMMoonset 11:09PM Illumination 22% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ537 Tidal Potomac From Cobb Island To Smith Point- 136 Pm Edt Tue May 26 2020
This afternoon..E winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Tonight..E winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 ft. Showers likely. Patchy fog.
Thu..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.
Thu night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Fri..SW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers and tstms likely through the night. A chance of showers after midnight.
Sat..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely with a chance of tstms through the night. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 136 Pm Edt Tue May 26 2020
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure to the northeast will stretch over the waters today before migrating further eastward into the atlantic on Wednesday. Low pressure will move northward from the southeastern us and over the waters late Wednesday through Thursday. A front will cross the waters late Friday through Saturday. Small craft advisories may be needed Thursday and Friday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Rock Point CDP, MD
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location: 38.23, -76.73     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 262006 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 406 PM EDT Tue May 26 2020

SYNOPSIS. Surface low pressure will move north across the area late Wednesday. This will be followed by high pressure remaining offshore resulting in a persistent southerly flow increasing moisture through midweek. Another low pressure system to our west will promote more unsettled weather for the late week period.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/. As of 345 PM EDT Tuesday .

High pressure remains off the coast this afternoon with a weak CAD still holding on supporting the low stratus which has hung on over portions of east and a persistent NW flow. Low pressure located along the FL coast was moving north along the inverted trough along the southeast US. All of this is maintaining a northeasterly flow which will become more easterly and then southeast later on Wednesday. Question will be how quickly precip moves north, but for the most part the overnight remains dry outside of some mist and drizzle in the east. Mostly cloudy with lows in the low 60s.

SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/. As of 345 PM EDT Tuesday .

The surface low off the FL coast lifts north on Wed and the main challenge is how fast precip spreads north ahead of the low. Trended a little faster with chance POPS Wed morning increasing in the afternoon especially across the southwest and south. Models vary quite a bit in timing of precip coming in from the south as well as the east to west gradient in the QPF. Overall expect showers increasing from south to north Wed especially in the afternoon. Some guidance such as the NAM is slower whereas the ECMWF is faster and wetter Wed morning. The HREF also tends to hold off the bulk of the precip until after 18 to 21z. POPs will likely need to be fine tuned as precip timing gets dialed in better.

Showers persist into Wed evening raping off from from west to east Thursday morning. Precip will likely shift to the east through the early morning hours Thursday. Deep southerly flow Thursday will help keep things unsettled and shower chances through the day. Better chances on Thursday may be in the east depending on the model of choice. Increasing instability may also mean a few thunderstorms in the afternoon.

PW values rise to near 2" by Wednesday as a stream of sub- tropical moisture arrives, then linger around 2.0" into Thursday. Due to this pockets of heavy rain are possible given rich moisture and warm rain processes associated with subtropical flow by late Wed into Thursday. However, widespread coverage of heavy rain is not expected. WPC has put our far SW VA counties and interior NE NC counties in a marginal risk of excessive rainfall for Wed, so we'll continue to monitor trends. Given the unsettled conditions through Thursday.

Highs Wed will be in the 70s to near 80 (low 70s MD Beaches). Lows Wed night in the 60s. Highs Thursday in the mid 70s to low 80s. Dew points will be on the increase as well so that by Thursday it may feel quite humid.

Continued unsettled Friday with increasing southerly flow and more instability ahead of an approaching cold front.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/. As of 400 PM EDT Monday .

An unsettled period is expected to continue Friday and Saturday. An upper level cut off low will be sitting over the deep south will become an open trough and lift newd toward the Mid-Atlantic by Saturday. Meanwhile, a lingering trough will be the focal point for showers/tstms Friday aftn. Then a cold front approaches from the NW Saturday and drops through the region Saturday night. This will trigger additional showers/tstms. Current guidance shows decent deep layer shear (850-200mb) Saturday, so some stronger tstms are possible if the timing lines up well (peak heating). High pressure and drier conditions expected for Sunday into early next week.

Warmer Friday and Saturday with highs in the low to mid 80s. More seasonable to slightly below normal temperatures are expected Sunday into early next week with the frontal passage. Low temps Friday and Saturday in the mid to upper 60s, dropping back to the upper 50s to low 60s Sunday morning, then 50s early next week.

AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. As of 145 PM EDT Tuesday .

Onshore flow this afternoon is still supporting IFR stratus at sites across southeast VA and NE NC. Guidance is mixed on how long this will persist and a brief improvement to MVFR is likely at PHF and possible ORF and ECG late afternoon and early evening. Conditions have improved to MVFR at SBY and RIC and these conditions will persist this afternoon and early evening. In fact there could be a brief period of VFR conditions at SBY and RIC late this afternoon.

Anticipating another round of IFR conditions tonight with continued onshore flow and increasing moisture from the south as low pressure moves north. Precip will spread north through the day Wednesday though exact timing varies in the guidance. Generally expect IFR conditions in the morning which may improve to MVFR in the later portions of the TAF period.

OUTLOOK . A stretch of unsettled conditions is expected during the mid to late week period as high pressure anchors itself over the western Atlantic and a low pressure system becomes cut off to our west. Showers will increase in coverage from S to N on Wednesday, then widespread showers and even afternoon thunderstorms will be possible Thursday/Friday and perhaps lingering into Saturday.

MARINE. As of 345 PM EDT Tuesday .

High pressure over the western Atlantic continues to ridge into the local area this afternoon. Winds are out of the NE around 10 knots with gusts to 15 knots. Waves are 1-2 ft in the bay with seas around 3 ft.

Generally quiet marine conditions will continue through at least the first half of tonight before low pressure near the FL east coast moves northward and high pressure moves farther offshore. Winds veer to the southeast on Wednesday and increase to 10-15 knots N and 15- 20 knots S as low pressure moves inland over the Carolinas. Seas build along with the increasing winds through the day tomorrow with 3-5 ft seas across the south by Wednesday evening. 5 ft seas will spread northward across the remainder of the coastal waters Wednesday night into early Thursday. Winds are forecast to strengthen slightly on Thursday with the potential for SCA headlines in the bay where 15-20 knot sustained winds are possible. Offshore winds will be a few knots stronger. Will hold off on SCA headlines with this forecast but sea-driven headlines are likely for the coastal waters for the mid to late week period. Winds turn southerly on Friday, 10-15 knots in the bay and 15-20 knots offshore ahead of a cold front that crosses the region on Saturday. Models have shown some increase in NW winds behind the front for the late weekend period.

Low rip current risk is forecast for the northern beaches tomorrow but a moderate risk will continue into Wednesday for the southern beaches with increasing onshore flow.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . None. NC . None. VA . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . JDM/JAO NEAR TERM . JDM/JAO SHORT TERM . JDM/JAO LONG TERM . AJZ AVIATION . JDM/JAO MARINE . ALB


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 12 mi47 min S 6 G 8
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 16 mi47 min SE 2.9 G 4.1 66°F 66°F1022 hPa
NCDV2 17 mi53 min ESE 6 G 8 70°F 69°F1021.4 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 21 mi47 min ENE 2.9 G 4.1 67°F 68°F1022.3 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 22 mi47 min NNW 4.1 G 5.1 1022.6 hPa
44042 - Potomac, MD 25 mi29 min SSE 3.9 G 7.8 67°F 1022.4 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 28 mi29 min WNW 1.9 G 3.9 68°F 1023.6 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 37 mi47 min W 6 G 7 68°F 71°F1021.8 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 38 mi125 min ESE 4.1 1022 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 42 mi47 min NNE 2.9 G 2.9 72°F 67°F1022.1 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 47 mi47 min S 4.1 G 7 78°F 69°F1021.5 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 49 mi35 min S 6 G 6 67°F 63°F1023.1 hPa (-1.2)64°F

Wind History for Piney Point, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St. Inigoes, Webster Field, Naval Electronic Systems Engineering Activity, MD17 mi42 minVar 410.00 miPartly Cloudy76°F64°F69%1021.8 hPa
Patuxent River, Naval Air Station, MD18 mi1.7 hrsE 510.00 miMostly Cloudy69°F63°F81%1022.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNUI

Wind History from NUI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr6W4W4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmNE5NE4NE6E5NE4E4E5NE44
1 day ago--------------------------------3NE6NE4Calm3NE6NE7Calm
2 days ago------------------------------------------------

Tide / Current Tables for Colton's Point, Potomac River, Maryland
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Point Patience, 0.1 mile southwest of, Maryland Current
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Point Patience
Click for MapFlood direction 315 true
Ebb direction 145 true

Tue -- 02:14 AM EDT     0.61 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 05:12 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:46 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:55 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 09:24 AM EDT     -0.98 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 02:15 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 03:31 PM EDT     0.24 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 05:34 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 08:20 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:57 PM EDT     -0.39 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop



Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.