Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Whitehaven, MD

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 315 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Showers and storms continue into this afternoon, with localized strong to severe storms possible, especially south.

- SPC has placed far southern areas near the Albemarle Sound in a Slight Risk (2 of 5) of severe weather today, with a Marginal Risk (1 of 5) extending just north north of the VA/NC border.

Numerous showers and embedded thunderstorms (south) will continue to spread east into the area this morning, becoming more widespread over the next couple of hours. While a Marginal Risk of severe weather from SPC does clip out far south and southwest this morning, would expect the local threat to remain minimal with the majority of the instability this morning being elevated.

A warm front will linger just southwest of the local area this morning, gradually lifting north into our far southern counties, before eventually hanging up near or just north of the VA/NC border by this afternoon. The moderate to steady rain of this morning will lift off to the northeast, with a lull in the activity later this morning into this afternoon. The end timing of this first round of convection will play a critical part in the development of storms in the afternoon since the atmosphere will need time to recharge itself and some daytime heating will be necessary to help increase instability. The afternoon activity will likely be lesser in coverage, but could be stronger. A majority of the threat is contingent on a few things including the exact track of the low moving across the area, how far north the warm front associated with the low lifts, and how late the morning activity sticks around. If the front does not lift northward much, instability will be very limited. As of now, model guidance is suggesting that the northern extent of the instability could lift to the NC/VA border and even into southern VA. This coupled with the 50 kt bulk shear that will be in place could be a decent set up for isolated strong to severe storms in NE NC and possible into southern VA. The other main inhibitor is despite the warm front lifting into our area, can the atmosphere recharge enough to produce another round of convection if the morning convection does not clear out until late morning.

The best threat for severe storms will be along the Albemarle Sound, where SPC has a Slight Risk (2 of 5) clipping the area. A Marginal Risk of severe weather extends just north of the VA/NC border. The best timing for any severe weather will likely be between ~17 to 20z for our far southern areas. Damaging wind gusts, instances of large hail, and even an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out if all ingredients come together and we are able to develop any stronger thunderstorms. There will also be a sharp gradient in temperatures from north to south of the front today, with highs only in the 60s (potentially struggling to get out the 60s MD Eastern Shore) for our northern areas and upper 70s to lower 80s south. Convection will taper off from west to east Wednesday evening into the overnight hours. Convection will taper off from west to east Wednesday evening into the overnight hours.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
As of 315 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Remaining unsettled into Thursday, especially across northern portions of the area.

- Generally dry and cool weather for Friday.

The low pressure system will start to occlude, and another area of low pressure is forecast to develop and move into the western North Atlantic while the parent low moves towards the eastern Great Lakes.
The low in the Atlantic will deepen during the day on Thursday as it shifts further offshore. Temperatures Thursday will be able to reach the lower to mid 70s NW to upper 70s to lower 80s SE as the warm front lifts through the area ahead of an approaching cold front. The parent low will remain parked over the eastern Great Lakes region, but the attendant surface front will move across our area during the day on Thursday. This will bring one last chance of rain for the week, with the highest PoPS expected in the northern part of the forecast area along with the possibility of a few isolated thunderstorms. High pressure will build back in at the surface after the cold front moves through the area. An upper low will linger near or just off the coast of New England on Friday. Outside of an isolated chance for a rain shower, mainly east and during the first part of the day, expect dry weather with mostly sunny skies on Friday. Temperatures will remain below average, with highs ranging from the upper 60s to lower 70s north to the mid to potentially upper 70s south. With mainly clear skies and relatively light winds Friday night, many locations will drop back into the 40s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 315 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Dry and cool weather through the first of the Memorial Day Weekend.

- Becoming unsettled Sunday and beyond as multiple systems potentially approach the region.

High pressure remains with us for the first half of the holiday weekend, with plentiful sunshine expected. Temperatures on Saturday will be similar to Friday with highs generally in the low to mid 70s (upper 60s MD Eastern Shore). Heading into Sunday, global models continue to show another system approaching the region that could bring some rainfall to our area. Have maintained chance PoPs for the time being, but we will continue to monitor the evolution of this system over the next few days. Monday and Monday night also have the potential to be unsettled as another area of low pressure and a warm front lift north towards the forecast area. Our weather pattern will likely remain unsettled into the middle of next week with continued chances for showers and storms. Temperatures will continue to run below average for late May this weekend into next week.

AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 210 AM EDT Wednesday...

Rain showers (with a few embedded thunderstorms) will continue to overspread the area from the west this morning. CIGs are starting out VFR at all sites, but will also rapidly deteriorate over the next few hours from west to east. Expect the steadier showers to reach RIC by ~08z and the SE TAF sites ~10 to 11z.
The steadier rain likely holds off at SBY until after 12z. CIGs fall to MVFR by 08 to 10z, and IFR by 12 to 14z (lowest confidence in IFR at ECG). CIGs will then remain IFR or MVFR norther of the VA/NC border through much of the remainder of the forecast period, while VFR conditions briefly return to ECG this afternoon. Steadier rain showers linger the longest at SBY, with the activity become isolated to scattered elsewhere this afternoon. A few stronger thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon, mainly in the vicinity of ECG. CIGs deteriorate to IFR or LIFR at all sites early tonight, before a potential improving trend late. An ESE wind will remain 5-10kt early this morning, and then increase to 10-15kt with gusts ~20kt later this morning, before becoming ENE 8-12kt at most sites during the afternoon, and WSW at 8-12kt at ECG.

Outlook: A secondary cold front will bring isolated to scattered showers/tstms Thursday aftn with otherwise mainly VFR conditions. Dry and VFR Friday into Saturday. A chc of showers returns later Sunday.

MARINE
As of 240 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages...

- Small Craft Advisories in effect for all of the local waters beginning this morning.

- Low pressure impacts the region Wednesday into Thursday, with elevated winds and waves/seas.

SE winds are increasing early this morning as a warm front with an area of low pressure forming along it lifts toward local waters. Latest obs reflect winds around 15kt with gusts to 20kt.
Buoy obs indicate seas of 2-4ft with the highest seas S of Cape Charles. SCAs are already in effect for the rivers and lower bay; the remainder of the marine zones go into effect this morning. The pressure gradient will continue to tighten as the front and low pressure move in over the area today. SE winds look to peak around mid-morning at 20-25kt and gusts to 30kt. As the low moves ENE and offshore late this afternoon, the northern coastal waters likely see a secondary peak with easterly winds around 25kt. Seas/waves build to 4-5ft for all coastal waters and the bay this morning. Waves elsewhere will be 2-3ft. Onshore winds will remain stronger for longer N of Cape Charles on Wed, so seas in northern waters will build to 5-7ft by the evening. Showers and thunderstorms associated with this system may also bring locally higher gusts/seas.

E winds diminish to 10-15kt through the evening and overnight as low pressure moves further offshore. Winds become NW then W late tonight into tomorrow morning. Breezy conditions are expected for Thurs ahead of and behind a cold front that will be passing through the region. Winds around 15kt with gusts around 20kt may lead to additional SCAs for the lower bay. Breezy, but sub-SCA, then forecast for Thursday night into Saturday. Seas will fall back to ~4ft Thurs morning. Waves will be 2-3ft. Seas will remain at 3-4ft through Friday.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ630- 631.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ632- 634.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ633.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ635>638.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ650-652-654.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 1 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ656.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ658.