Saturday, January25, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Leonard, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:17AMSunset 5:22PM Saturday January 25, 2020 9:47 AM EST (14:47 UTC) Moonrise 7:59AMMoonset 6:08PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ542 Patuxent River To Broomes Island Md- 938 Am Est Sat Jan 25 2020
Rest of today..S winds 5 kt...becoming W this afternoon. Waves 1 ft. Widespread showers late this morning, then scattered showers this afternoon.
Tonight..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun night..W winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Mon..W winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Mon night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed..N winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
ANZ500 938 Am Est Sat Jan 25 2020
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A low pressure system will move across the waters today. Northwest flow ahead of weak high pressure will build behind this system. Small craft advisories may be required Monday night into Tuesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Leonard, MD
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location: 38.28, -76.63     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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FXUS61 KLWX 250741 AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 241 AM EST Sat Jan 25 2020

SYNOPSIS. Low pressure will pass through the area today, heading northeast toward the Canadian Maritimes by Sunday. High pressure will return for the early and middle portions of next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/. Low pressure over the Great Lakes early this morning, with an occlusion extending southeast from there toward developing low pressure in southwestern Virginia. Plenty of warm moist air being transported north in advance of this system, with precipitable water values in excess of an inch (in January). A solid swath of showers, with some embedded local enhancement, extends from western/central Pennsylvania south across the forecast area to eastern North Carolina.

Upper troughing will take on a negative tilt this morning as the coastal low deepens while tracking up the coast. The strong forcing and moisture transport will permit the band of rain to pivot across the rest of the area. Previous forecast timing seems to be on track . suggesting 3-6am for the I-95 corridor and lingering til around 9am for the Chesapeake Bay region.

Rainfall rates in excess of half an inch per hour are possible, with areal average amounts of 1 to 2 inches expected. Taller, eastern facing slopes along the Blue Ridge will likely eclipse 3 inches. Flash Flood Guidance (FFG) values are lowest across portions of eastern West Virginia between the Allegheny Front and the foothills just west of I-81, and in the DC/Baltimore metros. These are the areas being monitored for isolated/ nuisance flooding issues. Widespread flooding or flash flooding is not currently expected due to the relatively progressive nature of the heaviest rain, lack of deeper convective instability and below normal rainfall over the last few weeks.

Cold advection will eventually kick in during the midday/afternoon hours as the low continues toward NYC and southern New England. Therefore high temperatures will occur during the mid-late morning hours. Forecast on track and made no changes in this regard.

Cold air may be sufficient to support rain showers changing to snow showers across the western slopes of the Appalachians. If this were to occur, thermal profiles would only be marginally supportive of accumulations. Do not have any forecast during the daylight hours at this time.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. Strong west flow and numerous pieces of shortwave energy will be the primary factors tonight through Monday. A couple of more vigorous shortwaves likely to undercut the region. Therefore, precipitation likely to be confined to the western slopes. Trajectory not favorable for significant snow accumulation (too westerly), so have a fairly prolonged period of chance PoPs with only an inch or two of accumulation total through the period. Otherwise, partly to mostly sunny skies will prevail east of the mountains. Temperatures still at or slightly above normal.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. The extended forecast still looking rather quiet as 500 mb flow across the eastern CONUS flattens and shortwave energy carves out a trough in the west. However, there is still discrepancy in the details. For this forecast cycle, the ECMWF once again is attempting to send some shortwave energy from the Great Lakes to the Mid Atlantic. PoPs will be on the low end given lack of guidance consistency. Cold air still lacking, and it will be reflected in forecast temperatures near/above climo.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Flight conditions currently centered on MVFR, with occasional/brief forays into IFR. As an occluded front crosses the terminals believe that there should be brief vsby restrictions, with cigs generally dropping as well. Fropa timing will be 08-11 UTC IAD/DCA/BWI. The best chance of IFR will be behind the occluded front, likely continuing through a good portion of the morning. Thereafter, increased west winds will erode the lower layer of moisture, permitting VFR to return.

The weather pattern should be pretty consistent for the week ahead, with period of clouds (most likely VFR with cigs 3500-4000 ft) and west/northwest winds gusting to 20-25 kt each afternoon.

MARINE. Small Craft Advisories in effect ahead of developing low pressure early this morning. Observations suggest numerous 20-25 kt gusts feeding into an approaching storm system. This system will cross the waters after daybreak.

Northwest flow is not particularly strong behind the system though. Combined with air temperatures several degrees warmer than the water again, mixing seems questionable. Have forecast winds below SCA criteria through Monday. Slightly stronger wind gusts possible Tuesday. Will maintain potential Small Craft Advisories then.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. Tidal departures have increased to near 1 ft as southeast winds continue to draw water into the estuary. An occluded front will cross the waters this morning. Thus, do not believe there will be any morning issues at this time.

The PM cycle (the higher of the two astronomically) continues to be more uncertain. Most guidance maintains a forecast below minor flood. The only two that suggest otherwise are the high biased CBOFS and the fairly solid performing SNAP-ex. Wind flow won't be all that strong in the wake of this morning's storm, and the flow direction not really conducive to water evacuation. Have a forecast that's just shy of minor flood at many locations. Clearly, this cycle deserves additional attention and possible adjustments based on observed trends.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. DC . None. MD . None. VA . None. WV . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ530>534-537>543. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST early this morning for ANZ536.



HTS


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 10 mi47 min NNE 2.9 G 5.1 48°F 42°F1009.8 hPa (+0.0)
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 11 mi47 min S 8 G 8
NCDV2 22 mi53 min N 2.9 G 4.1 49°F 43°F1009.8 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 22 mi53 min S 6 G 6 51°F 40°F1010.8 hPa
44042 - Potomac, MD 23 mi23 min SE 5.8 G 7.8 45°F 1010.5 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 32 mi47 min SSW 4.1 G 5.1 46°F 42°F1010.2 hPa (+0.3)
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 35 mi137 min N 4.1 1010 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 36 mi53 min Calm G 2.9 49°F 40°F1010.2 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 44 mi47 min N 12 G 12 44°F 39°F1010.8 hPa (+0.3)44°F
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 46 mi47 min WNW 2.9 G 4.1 47°F 40°F1011.2 hPa (-0.8)
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 49 mi47 min 45°F 1009.7 hPa (-0.5)

Wind History for Solomons Island, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St Marys County Airport, MD5 mi60 minN 0 mi48°F46°F94%1010.8 hPa
Patuxent River, Naval Air Station, MD12 mi55 minENE 77.00 miLight Rain49°F48°F100%1010.2 hPa
St. Inigoes, Webster Field, Naval Electronic Systems Engineering Activity, MD14 mi54 minESE 39.00 miLight Rain54°F0°F%1009.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for K2W6

Wind History from 2W6 (wind in knots)
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1 day agoN3CalmN3NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3
2 days agoCalmCalmNW3CalmCalmNE3E4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Leonardtown, Breton Bay, Maryland
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Leonardtown
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:31 AM EST     1.53 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:17 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:58 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 08:39 AM EST     -0.13 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:49 PM EST     1.68 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:20 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:09 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 09:20 PM EST     -0.11 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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11.31.51.51.20.80.50.2-0.1-0.10.10.511.41.61.71.51.20.80.50.1-0.1-0.10.2

Tide / Current Tables for Point Patience, 0.1 mile southwest of, Maryland Current
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Point Patience
Click for MapFlood direction 315 true
Ebb direction 145 true

Sat -- 01:43 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 05:17 AM EST     -0.61 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 07:16 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:58 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 08:47 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 11:21 AM EST     0.65 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 02:09 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 05:19 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:08 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 06:14 PM EST     -1.07 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 10:45 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.30.2-0.1-0.3-0.5-0.6-0.6-0.4-0.20.10.40.60.60.40.1-0.3-0.7-1-1.1-1-0.9-0.6-0.30.1

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.