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ANZ536 Tidal Potomac From Indian Head To Cobb Island- 433 Pm Edt Tue Oct 3 2023
Rest of this afternoon..SE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Tonight..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed..SE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Wed night..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Patchy fog.
Thu night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri..SE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers after midnight.
Sat..NW winds 5 to 10 kt...increasing to 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.

ANZ500 433 Pm Edt Tue Oct 3 2023
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay..
high pressure will remain near the waters through Wednesday before pushing offshore Thursday. A strong cold front will cross the waters Friday into Saturday. High pressure returns Sunday with several weak pieces of energy crossing the waters early next week. Small craft advisories may be needed late Friday, and will likely be needed behind the front on Saturday.

FXUS61 KLWX 031840 AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 240 PM EDT Tue Oct 3 2023

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will continue to bring dry conditions and warm temperatures throughout much of the eastern U.S through Thursday. A strong cold front will cross the region late Friday into Saturday bringing renewed chances for showers and thunderstorms. Crisp and cool temperatures will follow the front with high pressure returning Sunday into early next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Another quiet and warm day ahead with 1022-1024mb high pressure nearby. 12z BUFKIT soundings continue to show the potential for a shallow layer of fair weather cumulus clouds similar to yesterday during the peak heating period this afternoon. This is evident across the metros per latest webcams and TAF observations in the area. No precipitation is expected from these clouds outside of an isolated shower over the western mountains of the Allegheny Front where better lift/forcing can be found. Temperatures remain above normal with highs today getting into the low to mid 80s (70s in the mountains).

Any residual fair weather cumulus will clear later this evening and into the overnight hours. Clear skies and calm winds will set the stage for another round of patchy river/valley fog. Lows tonight will drop into the 50s for most locations with low to mid 60s in the metros and directly along the tidal Potomac/Chesapeake Bay.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
Surface high pressure and upper level ridging aloft will remain overhead through Wednesday before shifting offshore Thursday as the upper level trough over the mid-Mississippi River Valley pushes eastward toward the region. Dry conditions will remain throughout the midweek period although clouds will steadily increase Thursday as moisture builds on south to southeasterly return flow. Warm temperatures will continue as well with the latest NAEFS/EPS output for 850 mb temperatures running between +14 and +18 degrees C Wednesday afternoon. High temperatures in many locations as result will surge into the low to mid 80s with even a few upper 80s possible across the metros/southern portions of the forecast area.
By Thursday, 850 mb temperatures cool ever so slightly toward the +13 to +16 degree C range yielding highs in the mid to upper 70s and low 80s under increased cloud cover.

Outside of an isolated shower or thunderstorm over the western mountains Thursday afternoon and evening, a majority of the midweek period stays precipitation free. It's not until late Thursday night into Friday when shower chances increase from west to east across the area. The bulk of any shower or thunderstorm activity will hold off until Friday as the cold front pushes through.



LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
High pressure will begin to break down late in the week as an upper trough continues to progress further east from the Ohio Valley, particularly Friday into Saturday. By Friday, increasing clouds and some low-level moisture will creep into the Mid-Atlantic. Some showers may be possible, especially later in the day but coverage and intensity should be fairly limited. Highs will top out in the mid to upper 70s for most of the lower elevations, with 60s for the mountains. Overnight lows will dip down into the 40s across the Allegheny Front with a gradual increase the further east you go towards the waters where low 60s will be common.

A cold front likely crosses the region sometime late Friday into early Saturday. Ensemble guidance continues to fluctuate with respect to timing and intensity of the cold front passage across the Mid-Atlantic. Showers will be common through the period with maybe even a few rumbles of thunder possible. Some individual ensemble members suggest SBCAPE values creeping into the 600 to 800 j/kg range and that coupled with nearly 60 knots of bulk shear would be enough to cause some potential hazardous weather with respect to a QLCS setup. Luckily for now, this solution's probabilities appear fairly low at this point but it will be worth monitoring over the next several days.

Behind the front, the main concerns will be the winds and the shift in temperatures. For the winds, gusty northwest winds will build in across the area post-frontally sometime Friday into Saturday. Some medium-range guidance has near Wind Advisory criteria, especially for some of the higher elevations where the gradient may be a bit tighter. These increased winds should begin to dissipate Monday into Tuesday. For temperatures for the weekend, conditions may still be relatively mild for this time of year on Saturday but as the northwesterly flow kicks in there will be many areas that could see some of their coldest temperatures in 6 months. Areas along the Allegheny Front may see temperatures getting closer to freezing. By Sunday morning, if any lingering low-level moisture is coupled with the near freezing temperatures then some rain-snow mix may be possible at the highest elevation but overall accumulation looks to be little to none. Conditions improve into the beginning of next work week as high pressure builds in from the Deep South.

AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Prevailing VFR conditions are expected to continue this afternoon with high pressure nearby. 12z CAM guidance continues to show a shallow layer of VFR fair weather cumulus mainly at 5-9 kft this afternoon scattered about the region. No precipitation is expected from this cloud cover although an outside chance of an isolated shower remains possible across the western mountains where better lift/forcing can be found. Winds will remain light and variable across the region.

VFR conditions continue tonight with areas of MVFR to LIFR fog confined to the river/mountain valleys. Highest confidence for fog will be at KMRB and KCHO with lower confidence for MVFR vsbys at KMTN, KIAD, and KBWI. Despite a good radiational cooling setup, ample dry air in the low and mid levels should keep fog confined to valley locations. VFR conditions look to continue through Wednesday with high pressure nearby. High pressure slides offshore Thursday allowing for south to southeasterly onshore flow to ensue. This will result in increased cloud cover Thursday afternoon into Thursday night as the approaching upper level trough/cold front advance toward the region. Sub-VFR conditions could return with low clouds at terminals east of the Blue Ridge as early as Thursday night.

Sub-VFR conditions are possible on Friday. A cold front likely brings showers Friday night into Saturday. Sub-VFR conditions continue Saturday with maybe a rumble of thunder possible along with gusty winds behind the frontal passage late Saturday and into early Sunday.

MARINE
Sub-SCA level winds will remain over the waters through Thursday. Winds will generally remain light and variable today/Wednesday before switching to the southeast Thursday at less than 10 kts.

Winds will increase Friday ahead of a cold front passage Friday into Saturday. SCA conditions continue throughout the day and into Saturday. There is an outside threat for gale-force winds for the waters, especially further south. No marine headlines are currently in effect but some may be needed towards the end of the week and into next weekend.



TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Anomalies continue to hold steady between 0.75-1.2 feet this afternoon. Caution stages have been observed at vulnerable locations such as DC Waterfront and Annapolis during the recent high tide cycle. Minor flooding remains possible at sensitive locations this evening although confidence remains low to if the threshold will be met. This is largely due in part to light and variable winds over the region with high pressure nearby. The highest confidence for minor flooding appears to be at Straits Point per the latest 12z guidance with slightly lower confidence at both Annapolis and DC Waterfront. For now, have held off of any Coastal Flood Advisories as we await to see how the anomalies bounce back after the concurrent high tide cycle.

Water levels may decline somewhat in the middle of the week as light/variable winds allow some water to flow out of the bay, and astronomical tides decrease. However, increased SE flow late in the week could renew a risk for spotty minor flooding.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

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Fredericksburg
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Tue -- 05:42 AM EDT     0.12 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:07 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:54 AM EDT     3.15 feet High Tide
Tue -- 12:00 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 05:33 PM EDT     0.19 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:49 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:26 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 11:09 PM EDT     3.59 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Fredericksburg, Rappahannock River, Virginia, Tide feet

Massaponax
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Tue -- 05:58 AM EDT     0.10 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:07 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:45 AM EDT     2.75 feet High Tide
Tue -- 11:59 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 05:49 PM EDT     0.17 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:49 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:26 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 11:00 PM EDT     3.14 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Massaponax, Rappahannock River, Virginia, Tide feet

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