NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Vertically stacked low pressure is located over the southern Appalachians this morning. Meanwhile, another low is beginning to form east of Hampton Roads and will become the dominant low by tonight. An easterly low level jet and some elevated instability are supporting moderate to briefly heavy showers moving across the area...even a few thunderstorms across central Virginia. The prevailing idea is that showers and isolated thunderstorms will be most widespread through midday. After that, the low level jet weakens and the deeper moisture begins to contract into the developing offshore low. However, models have a wide range of solutions as to how the next 24 hours will play out in terms of rain coverage. Efficient rain rates will have to be monitored (some amounts in excess of an inch since midnight southwest of Charlottesville), and some CAMs do show some localized heavy/multi-inch rain totals. So far, heavier elements have been transient, and combined with recent dry conditions, any flood threat appears to be isolated at most.
Clouds will mute high temperatures today, with most areas rising into the lower to mid 70s.

Tonight should have generally decreasing rain chances as the offshore low results in some modestly drier air moving in from the north. However, with the upper low nearly overhead, some isolated to scattered showers may continue. Fog may develop if breaks can occur in the clouds, which seems most plausible across western parts of the area. Lows will be in the mid 50s to mid 60s.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
The upper level and surface lows are forecast to gradually drift east or northeast Thursday and Friday, but there is still some notable spread amongst guidance in their positioning. While the upper low will still be close by Thursday and a few showers or even a thunderstorm could pop up almost anywhere, the highest chances appear to be closer to the Chesapeake (closer to the surface low) and across the Appalachians (as a disturbance rotates through the west side of the gyre). Some clearing could occur if the low pulls away fast enough. Temperatures will respond into the mid 70s to near 80.

The current forecast consensus has surface high pressure settling over the area Friday and Friday night as the upper trough/closed low moves to the east. This would result in dry conditions and more sunshine, with temperatures rising into the upper 70s to lower 80s. However, there is still some chance (such as in the 00Z NAM) that they low remains closer to the coast, which could result in more clouds and a chance of showers. Have slight chance PoPs and more cloud cover along the immediate Chesapeake for this forecast package.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A backdoor cold front will move through the region Saturday. Cooler and drier air will move in from the northwest and north Saturday and Sunday. High temperatures will be below average both days.

High pressure building southeast behind the backdoor cold front will keep conditions dry for the majority of our western and central zones on Monday as well. There will be a low pressure system off of the eastern seaboard that will have some energy filling around the backside of it on Monday. Therefore, there is a slight chance for showers in our eastern zones and could primarily be over the Maryland eastern shore. High temperatures on Monday will be below average too with highs in the lower to middle 70s. Higher elevations stay cooler.

Later on Monday and into the day on Tuesday, a low pressure system will approach our region from the west. This low could bring rain chances to our western zones Monday evening through Tuesday. Highs Tuesday could be milder with highs in the upper 70s as a return flow develops ahead of the low pressure arriving from the west.

AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
MVFR to IFR ceilings continue to overspread the area this morning. All terminals should see a period of IFR conditions through mid to late morning, with LIFT possible at CHO. Showers, some moderate to briefly heavy, may also reduce visibility at times, but the heaviest elements seem to be transient.

Showers should become more spotty in nature this afternoon as developing off the coast starts to turn winds more northerly and bring in some drying air. This also seems like it will raise ceilings to VFR by late afternoon except at CHO. Those northeast winds may gust close to 20 kt at times today.

MVFR to IFR conditions may redevelop late tonight, although there is some uncertainty in whether this would be in the form of low clouds or fog and the location of the restrictions.

A few showers may continue Thursday but overall there should be a drying trend into Friday. There is some potential of low clouds and/or fog developing both Thursday night and Friday night however.

VFR conditions Saturday through Sunday night. Winds northerly 5 to 10 knots Saturday, becoming predominantly northeast 5 to 10 knots Saturday night through Sunday night.

MARINE
Small Craft Advisory conditions will continue in northeast flow today as low pressure develops offshore. An isolated thunderstorm can't be ruled out amongst showers today. Winds should gradually decrease tonight as the low starts to drift away from the area. Advisory conditions may linger along the bay into Thursday though depending on the position and strength of the low. It does appear winds should be relatively lighter Thursday night into Friday, but may strengthen again Friday night amongst a tightening pressure gradient.

Small craft advisories possible Saturday and again Sunday afternoon and evening as northeasterly winds kick up a little over the open waters of the Tidal Potomac and central and southern Chesapeake Bay.
Winds northeast 10 to 15 knots gusts up to 20 knots both periods.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Anomalies remain highest this morning along the Potomac River.
Several advisories have been issued through this afternoon's high tide cycle. As low pressure turns winds more northerly tonight, there may be a brief decrease in tidal levels. However, as the low strengthens offshore, surge guidance shows increasing water levels by Thursday evening into the weekend. Combined with high astronomical tide levels, additional coastal flooding can be expected. Some guidance suggests Annapolis and DC SW Waterfront could even approach moderate flood levels.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this evening for DCZ001.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for MDZ008.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for MDZ014.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for MDZ016.
VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for VAZ057.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for ANZ530- 538-539-542.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ531>534- 537-540-541-543.
Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT today for ANZ535.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ536.