Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Jesterville, MD

KEY MESSAGES
1) Shower and thunderstorm chances trend higher this afternoon along with more humid conditions. Slight Risk today for NE NC, with a Marginal risk elsewhere.

2) Marginal Risk for Severe storms along and S of I-64 Sunday.
Dry with seasonable temperatures Monday-Tuesday.

3) A significant heat wave leading to Headlines is likely later in the week into the Holiday weekend, especially Thu-Fri.
Shower/thunderstorm chances remain very low through Thursday.

DISCUSSION
As of 155 PM EDT Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Shower and thunderstorm chances trend higher this afternoon along with more humid conditions. Slight Risk today for NE NC, with a Marginal risk elsewhere.

Latest analysis reveals a wavy frontal boundary draped just north of the local area as of this writing, snaking back into the Ohio Valley. Considerable cloud cover, remnant from late night MCS activity late last evening to the west, has largely stabilized the NW half of the area. Some scattered showers have pushed into the RIC metro area early this afternoon, but decent mid-level capping still limiting the severe threat farther north.

Across western Tidewater into Hampton Roads and NE NC, lesser cloud cover and subsequent late-day destabilization ahead of an approaching (stronger) afternoon shortwave. A few storms have already developed just E of I-95 over north central NC into south central VA, with additional showers and storms likely as convection pushes into the region over the next few hours. A very warm to hot and moderately humid airmass will drive DCAPE values to ~1000-1300 J/kg range S of the VA-NC border, making this area a bit more conducive to severe weather. For that reason, a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) remains for NC. Given decent W-WNW flow aloft and 20-30 kt of 0-6km bulk shear, organized clusters or line segments, capable of producing localized damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat. Storm motions should generally be progressive enough (15-20 kt) to limit the widespread flash flood threat, though brief hydro issues cannot be ruled out if convection coalesces over urban areas.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Marginal Risk for Severe storms along and S of I-64 Sunday. Dry with seasonable temperatures Monday-Tuesday.

Convective coverage is expected to be a bit less on Sunday for northern areas as the front slowly drops across the region.
However, still expect high chc to low- end likely PoPs across southern and western portions of the FA as the front sinks south through the area and the low- level flow becomes N-NE across northern portions of the FA. Again, potential for damaging wind gusts persists primarily across Hampton Roads into NE NC, albeit a bit earlier in the day through around sunset. Dry and slightly less humid Monday and Tuesday, with temps in the mid- upper 80s Monday and upper 80s to lower 90s Tuesday as high pressure builds toward the area from the NNE.

KEY MESSAGE 3...A significant heat wave is likely later in the week into the Holiday weekend, especially Thu-Fri, with heat headlines likely to be needed for much if not all of the area.
Shower/thunderstorm chances remain very low through Thursday.

A strong upper ridge slowly drifts east from the OH Valley to the central Appalachians later in the week. There remain some subtle differences in the precise location, but confidence is high that this setup will lead to a significant heat wave for the local area. The MEX numbers look to be too cool with highs peaking only in the mid to upper 90s locally given a strong consensus for H5 heights >595 dm and 850 mb temps of 21-23C.
This is likely being too influenced by climo. With that said, have continued to cut a few degrees off of the NBM temperatures for highs Wednesday- Friday; current forecast is for highs Thursday- Friday ranging from the upper 90s to the low 100s area-wide (with the highest temperatures for the interior MD eastern shore and central and south central VA). The weak sfc pressure gradient will tend to allow some aftn seabreeze development, locally bringing steady or falling late day temperatures. The caveat will be the higher dew pts along the coast so peak heat indices may be similar. Also continued to make some adjustments downward with aftn dew P's from the NBM (especially from the I-95 corridor and P's west). The latest forecast shows heat indices of 105-110 F fairly widespread for Thursday and Friday (with pockets of 110+ possible).

The only real opportunity for showers and storms in this pattern would be with that same seabreeze triggering some isolated convection along the coast, or more broadly in "ring of fire" type convective complexes. However, with the heat ridge trending farther east with time, this does not appear very likely, and thus rain chances remain quite low Wed- Thu, with some slight chc to low chc PoPs by late Friday. This will all be better resolved as we get closer. The bottom line is that preparations should be made now for a period of hot temperatures/heat indices late next week. Heat headlines are likely to be needed for most if not all of our area during this time period.

AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 155 PM EDT Saturday...

Mostly VFR conditions prevail early this afternoon, though localized MVFR has developed in scattered showers and lingering SC from early morning convection. Higher chances for showers and storms at area terminals this aftn into early this evening.
Confidence in timing is still rather low, but have including prevailing SHRA for PHF/ORF/ECG this aftn with TEMPO groups for TSRA as periods of sub- VFR conditions are likely in any showers/tstms. The wind will generally be light out of the S to SW today, and could shift to easterly along the coast later this aftn. Any stronger tstms this aftn into the early evening could produce some locally stronger wind gusts.

Outlook: MVFR/IFR cigs are possible once again late tonight through early Sunday morning. Shower/tstm chances return Sunday aftn (lowest chance for SBY, highest southern VA and NE NC terminals). Prevailing conditions will be VFR outside of convection. VFR conditions are expected to return by the beginning of next week and continue through the middle of next week as high pressure builds S across the area and then settles offshore.

MARINE
As of 320 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Benign marine conditions are expected to prevail through much of the week. Scattered thunderstorm activity is expected for the next two days ahead of a weakening cold front.

Sfc high pressure remains centered near Bermuda this afternoon.
Locally, the synoptic wind field is light and wind wind speeds around 5 kt or so. Expect continued light flow through most of today, though any thunderstorms that develop and move over the marine area this afternoon and evening are likely to produce locally higher winds and waves. A weak cold front is forecast to slowly advance southward Sunday with winds veering to the NE by the later afternoon. Additional showers/storms are also expected Sunday, with SMWs to be issued as needed. NE winds become 10-15 kt Monday as the pressure gradient modestly tightens behind the front and weak low pressure develops well offshore of the OBX. There remains some spread in the model guidance as to the strength of these features and the resultant strength of the winds, with the strongest solutions depicting SCA conditions across the southern two coastal water zones. However, the current forecast and model consensus remains below SCA thresholds. Seas build to 3-4 ft S and 2-3 ft N during the Monday timeframe; otherwise, seas remain in the 2-3 ft range through the period. A typical summertime pattern is expected after Monday with light flow, daily sea breezes, and isolated afternoon/evening convection.

The rip current risk is low today and Sunday. With onshore flow and nearshore waves around 3 ft, a moderate risk is likely for southern beaches and possible for northern beaches Monday.

EQUIPMENT
As of 1000 AM EDT Saturday...

KAKQ radar has returned to service.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.