Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Fredericksburg, VA

KEY MESSAGES
- 1) Numerous showers expected through this evening. Turning much cooler Monday and through the rest of the week.

- 2) Cool & wet conditions persist through the end of the week, with drier conditions heading into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Numerous showers expected through this evening. Turning much cooler Monday and through the rest of the week.

Extensive cloudiness has limited instability all day with VIS imagery and NUCAPS data showing only southern MD having received enough sunshine for thunderstorms to potentially develop later this afternoon or evening. Otherwise, a weak area of low pressure will pass through the area early this evening and should bring a round of light showers to most areas through mid evening, except in the south. The front will sink south overnight with showers ending, with clouds lowering.

More showers will arrive in the west toward daybreak as the next shortwave-trough and weak area of low pressure approaches the area. These showers will slowly progress east during the afternoon Monday. The period of heaviest rainfall looks to be Monday night/early Tuesday when onshore flow/moisture advection is strongest combines with a weak low to mid-level low pressure.

High pressure then builds south from the Northeast Tue setting up a strong cold air damming event supporting well below normal temperatures and cloudy conditions.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Cool & wet conditions persist through the end of the week, with drier conditions heading into the weekend.

Intermittent showers remain possible mid-to-late week as a lingering frontal boundary sags to the south. Additionally, a strong coastal low begins to track north close to the Maryland coast Thursday and into Friday, which will bring gusty conditions to the region. This strong onshore flow could bring minor coastal flooding to sites along the Chesapeake Bay. See the coastal flooding section below for more information.

As this coastal low tracks to the north, dry mid-level air from the upper Midwest moves in overhead. This will create somewhat drier conditions heading into the weekend, although there is a bit of model discrepancy on how slow the coastal low will be moving out of the area. Winds could stay elevated until this system is well north of the Mid-Atlantic. Temperatures stay slightly cooler-than-average during this time, although gradually increase near the end of the week as any lingering shortwave disturbances track offshore.



AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

A cold front will drop south this evening supporting numerous showers. Winds shift to the north tonight with IFR conditions developing. IFR cigs persist through mid week.

Intermittent sub-VFR conditions likely continue through Thursday as additional showers move through the Mid-Atlantic, reducing CIGs and VSBYs. Conditions potentially improve somewhat on Friday as a trough moves north out of the region. Gusty winds remain a possibility through the end of the week due to onshore flow, with gusts between 15-25 knots possible. Winds flow north to northeasterly.

MARINE

Winds have relaxed a bit this afternoon, but are expected to strengthen Monday night through early Thursday. Additional SCAs will be needed.

Wind gusts will be strongest on Thursday over the Bay as a coastal storm tracks to the north off the East Coast. Sustained winds between 20-25 knots are possible with as winds flow northeasterly.
Winds stay elevated on Friday, flowing due north. On and off showers are possible over the waters as multiple shortwave disturbances move through.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING

Water levels remain elevated as onshore flow has developed.
Stronger NNE winds Monday afternoon will push the water south into the mouth of Chesapeake Bay. This excess water is expected to slosh back mid week resulting in widespread minor coastal flooding, perhaps moderate at Annapolis.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...None.
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM EDT Monday for MDZ014.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to noon EDT Monday for ANZ531>534-539>541-543.