Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lavalette, WV

KEY MESSAGES
1.) Cold conditions will persist today. Wind chills as low as 25 below zero in the mountains and 10 below zero in the lowlands are expected this morning.

2.) A rapid warm-up will occur on Wednesday as winds turn southerly. Gusty winds of 25 to 35 mph are likely during the afternoon.

3.) System Wednesday night may yield some light snow accumulations, mainly in the higher terrain.

4.) A winter storm is possible this weekend, confidence in area impacts is increasing, but confidence in details remains low.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...

An exceptionally dry polar airmass remains anchored over the region this morning. Observed soundings from PIT and ILN at 00Z show an extremely dry column with precipitable water values below 0.10 inches. While modest surface flow of 5 to 10 mph is preventing the atmosphere from radiating out to full saturation, it is contributing to dangerously low wind chill values.
Temperatures this morning will bottom out in the single digits to lower teens in the lowlands, and near or below zero in the Northeast Mountains. Daytime highs today will struggle to crack the mid 20s across the lower elevations and will likely remain in the single digits along the higher ridges. Winds will continue to subside and current headlines should be able to be dropped on time or a little early.

Surface high pressure will begin to drift south of the area tonight. Overnight lows will likely occur fairly early this evening as southwesterly flow begins to kick in toward dawn.
Some of the more typical cold spots could find their way back down toward the lower single digits, while ridgetops may be back into the 20s by daybreak.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Temperatures will moderate quickly on Wednesday as high pressure emerges onto the Atlantic Coastal plain, allowing southwesterly return flow to intensify. Afternoon highs across the lower elevations will get back into the upper 40s, which is several degrees above seasonal normals. A strong pressure gradient will develop ahead of a weak cold front, supporting a low-level jet of 50 to 60 KTs at H850. Given the warm advection regime, mixing will be limited with surface gusts will peak between 30 and 35 mph. A weak, moisture-starved system will cross the area Wednesday night, potentially producing light snow showers in the Northeast Mountains with minimal accumulation. Temperatures will return to near normal values in the 40s for Thursday.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

A weak, moisture-starved system will cross the area Wednesday night, potentially producing light snow showers in the higher terrain with minimal accumulation. Temperatures will return to near normal values in the 40s for Thursday.

KEY MESSAGE 4...

An expansive Arctic high builds east toward the end of the week, with a reinforcing cold front pushing through the region on Friday. This will set the stage for a potentially high-impact winter event this weekend. A moisture-laden southern stream disturbance is forecast to track across the Tennessee Valley and interact with the Arctic boundary. While deterministic model spread remains wide regarding the exact track of the surface low, there is a growing consensus for a solution that places a significant swath of overrunning snow across or perhaps just south of the region. Thermal profiles currently suggest snow will be the dominant precipitation type, as the entire column remains below freezing, but even a small northernly shift in track would take the H850 zero line into our southern counties.

AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours as high pressure maintains clear skies. Surface winds will remain out of the west to northwest at 5 to 10KTs today before backing to the southwest and decreasing to near 5KTs after sunset.

Low-level wind shear may become a concern toward the end of the TAF period, as a powerful southerly low-level jet begins to develop around 2000ft AGL.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE TUE 01/20/26 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR conditions are possible in light snow showers Wednesday night, primarily at the mountain terminals. Widespread IFR or LIFR conditions are possible this weekend in snow.

RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...Cold Weather Advisory until noon EST today for WVZ007>011- 016>020-027>034-039-040-515>521-524-525.
Extreme Cold Warning until 2 PM EST this afternoon for WVZ522- 523-526.
OH...Cold Weather Advisory until noon EST today for OHZ066-067-075- 076-083>087.
KY...Cold Weather Advisory until noon EST today for KYZ101-102.
VA...None.