Thursday, August6, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Lavalette, WV

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:35AMSunset 8:35PM Thursday August 6, 2020 8:35 PM EDT (00:35 UTC) Moonrise 9:36PMMoonset 8:20AM Illumination 91% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lavalette, WV
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location: 38.3, -82.39     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston WV
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FXUS61 KRLX 070005 AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 805 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2020

SYNOPSIS. A series of disturbances move up the Appalachians through Friday. High pressure crosses Saturday, setting up a warming trend into early next week, as it moves east.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/. As of 800 PM Thursday .

Elected to increase cloud coverage through the near term period as latest model guidance suggests an uptick in clouds starting late tonight. Also made adjustments to POPs this evening along the mountains as convection wanes with the loss of diurnal heating.

As of 200 PM Thursday .

Showers and storms will continue to develop mainly across the southern and eastern portions of WV and extreme southwest VA through this evening. An upper level shortwave and the afternoon heating acting on PWATs around 1.8 inches are responsible for this activity. Expect most of the convection to wane down by 9 pm this evening. A Marginal risk for excessive rainfall exists across central Appalachians through Friday. Heavy downpours are possible with this activity as well as repetitive showers over the same areas, posing a threat for localized flooding into Friday. Convective activity will diminish considerable tonight, but PoPs still exist across the eastern half of our forecasting area. Patchy dense fog is also expected mainly along the most protected river valleys overnight tonight.

For Friday, a stronger H500 vorticity maxima sweeps across the area to provide better support for showers and storms development mainly during the afternoon and evening hours. WPC has the central Appalachians under a Marginal risk for excessive rainfall as well.

Accepted guidance temperatures with near normal values through the period.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/. As of 220 PM Thursday .

The pesky long wave trough finally exits east Friday evening as a broad ridge over the Southern Plains begins to to slide into the region. This will result in warm-up for the weekend with highs across the Lowlands in the upper 80s to lower 90s along with minimal precipitation chances as a subsidence inversion based near H800 develops.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. As of 220 PM Thursday .

Subsidence begins to fade as ridging deamplifies in advance of the next system transiting the Upper Great Lakes with a diurnal risk of showers and thunderstorms returning Monday. Models have shifted this feature a bit further north over the last couple runs, so think Monday's highs will be pretty similar to Sunday's in the absence of stronger southwesterly flow.

The pattern turns more active for the remainder of the week with copious moisture pooling ahead of a stalling frontal boundary somewhere across the Middle Ohio Valley. Low level moisture coupled with strong surface heating will yield substantial instability, although generally weak winds through the column will limit overall severe potential with the main threats being localized damaging winds with core drops and locally heavy rainfall with slow moving storms.

AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. As of 800 PM Thursday .

Diurnal heating and ripples of disturbances aloft have resulted in scattered showers and thunderstorms, primarily along the spine of the Appalachians. At the time of writing, BKW was receiving a direct hit in flight restrictions due to convection, and can't rule out EKN falling into the same boat. Convection wanes over the next several hours, returning all terminals to VFR for a time.

Confidence severs overnight tonight as river valley fog production contends with increasing cloud coverage aloft. Held onto fog across our most vulnerable sites of CRW, EKN, and CKB, while excluding HTS and PKB with this issuance. Will also have to monitor BKW for fog now that the terminal has observed rain this evening.

A similar forecast is painted for Friday with convection sprouting in the afternoon, potentially in close vicinity to our mountain aerodromes. For now, chose to include VCTS at BKW to account for this. Winds remain light throughout the period.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY . FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and intensity of fog may vary from the forecast overnight.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE FRI 08/07/20 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H L L M M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H L L L L BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M H H M L L L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H L L M M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H L M L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M L L M L L

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY . Overnight river valley fog may lead to IFR conditions this weekend into early next week.

RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WV . None. OH . None. KY . None. VA . None.

SYNOPSIS . ARJ/JP NEAR TERM . ARJ/MEK SHORT TERM . JP LONG TERM . JP AVIATION . MEK


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Huntington, Tri-State Airport, WV10 mi44 minNNE 410.00 miOvercast78°F64°F64%1016.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHTS

Wind History from HTS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN4N4NE5NE4NE4NE4N4N3NE4N4N5NE5NE6NE3N5N6NE85NE7NE5NE7N7N5N4
1 day ago3W3W3NE3N3CalmCalmCalmCalmN3N3N3NE4E543E3Calm3N5NE3NE4N5N5
2 days agoCalmCalmE3N9N4N3CalmS3SW4CalmNW5NW565W5SW5SW7W5W7W9
G15
W8W6W6NW6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Charleston WV (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Charleston, WV
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.