Monday, December9, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Lavalette, WV

Version 3.4
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10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
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Sunrise 7:33AMSunset 5:10PM Monday December 9, 2019 10:14 AM EST (15:14 UTC) Moonrise 3:45PMMoonset 4:45AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lavalette, WV
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location: 38.3, -82.39     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston WV
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FXUS61 KRLX 091446 AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 946 AM EST Mon Dec 9 2019

SYNOPSIS. Off and on rain Tuesday ahead of a cold front. Sharply colder air and snow showers for Tuesday night/Wednesday. High pressure but cold into Friday. Unsettled for the weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. As of 945 AM Monday .

Tweaked hourly grids based on latest trends and obs. The steadier rains have moved into northern counties this morning with a more scattered variety elsewhere. I still expect a bit of a lull this afternoon east and especially south of the OH River, though a passing shower can't be ruled out completely.

Rainfall amounts thus far have been less than a third of an inch. Hi res models generally keep light amounts for the remainder of the daylight hours, though up to an addition half an inch is possible across far northern counties.

Inversion off the surface has kept low level jet winds from mixing down this morning. I do expect some gusts to be realized this afternoon as the inversion weakens and we get some drying in the low levels.

As of 625 AM Monday .

Brought down the wind gusts as they looked too high, and increased the POPs over the next few hours based on radar coverage.

As of 245 AM Monday .

500mb flow is now becoming very active, and with the surge of lower level moisture, rain coverage is expected to be on the increase going forward. Meanwhile, cold front will push through the lower Ohio Valley today and into the middle Ohio Valley tonight. The result is persistent off and on rain for the northern and western zones in the short term, and a marginal risk of excessive rain over this area in day 1. Further south, more likely to get a reprieve in the rain with a brief drier push of lower level air until the front begins to work through the CWA. At the break point with the short term, the cold air advection really begins a strong advance into the northwestern zones of southeastern Ohio by 12Z Tuesday.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/. As of 210 AM Monday .

A low to the north will start this period off spreading rain across the area due to its associated frontal boundary. QPFs have come down a lot since previous forecast runs mainly due to the increase in speed of the southern stream frontal boundary that will be draped across the area which will shorten the length of time this feature rides over over us. During the Tuesday evening time frame, the cold front will be moving across to the east transitioning most of the rainfall to snow with very efficient cold air advection and soundings are in agreement with this. Frontal passage is set for early morning on Wednesday where a possibility for a surge of snow showers takes place with robust frontogenesis available and a low level jet of 60KT coupled with a strong jet streak, all which will help enhance some snow development along the band of frontogenetical forcing. Good upslope flow direction right along the backside of the cold front will add to accumulations in the mountains as opposed to the lowlands. However, the moisture does get cut off early morning Wednesday for the lowlands and finally in the mountains near Elkins and Snowshoe shortly afterwards in the late morning with possible lingering flurries into the early afternoon.

Getting a handle on snow accumulations has been really tough considering QPF has been decreasing over time and the frontal movement has increased. However, there will be a nice window of opportunity for preferred ice growth although it will quickly diminish as moisture disappears with colder dryer air getting filtered in. Since the lowlands has less of a window of snow growth, totals are conservative with traces amounts in the Ohio Valley and up to an inch in the lowlands of WV. In contrast, the mountains will have much higher totals from upslope and a lengthier snow growth window for the higher elevations with expected totals anywhere from 1.5 to 4 inches in the highest peaks. These values may vary of course in later shifts due to the complexity of this snow forecast.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. As of 230 AM Monday .

High pressure will dominate until Friday morning when the next system approaches the area from the southwest. It looks like models are diverging even more on the track of the surface low which will make a difference on how much snow or rain occurs. Regardless, it looks like the area will endure a somewhat unsettled weekend and then may have a short break afterwards. Models do hint at another disturbance for the beginning of the new work week. The take away here is that the weekend has even more of a chance at being unsettled than previous model runs and an active pattern starts to arise for the beginning of the weekend.

AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. As of 625 AM Monday .

Cold front approaches from the west this forecast period and will pass after 03Z Tuesday.

Ceilings continue to gradually lower and eventually will have predominant MVFR values for the bulk of the period with off and on rain moving through the region. More frequent rain expected along the river terminals, and the CRW-CKB line and east should get into a break from the rain after 16Z today for a few hours. Regardless, any ceiling improvements to VFR will be temporary. Visibilities are not forecast to reach IFR for very long at any of the terminals, and do not feel that the atmosphere will become soupy in rain due to the strength of the wind. This is also a reason why ceilings should stay MVFR and not dip into IFR values either. Brief IFR in a more moderate shower cannot be ruled out, but the thought is that this would be too short lived for any prevailing or TEMPO group at this time.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY . FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Observations likely to bounce in and out of rain requiring TEMPOs.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 EST 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 CRW CONSISTENCY M H M M H M L L H H M H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H M H H H H M M H BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M M M H M H H H H M L M PKB CONSISTENCY M H M H H H H H H M H H CKB CONSISTENCY M M L H H H H H H H H H

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY . IFR expected at times Tuesday with rain. IFR possible Tuesday night and Wednesday in snow showers, most likely in the mountains.

RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WV . None. OH . None. KY . None. VA . None.

SYNOPSIS . 26/JZ NEAR TERM . 26/30 SHORT TERM . JZ LONG TERM . JZ AVIATION . 26


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Huntington, Tri-State Airport, WV10 mi23 minS 710.00 miLight Rain52°F48°F86%1010.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHTS

Wind History from HTS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS5S5S10
G19
S9S8S4S6SE3SE3S7S5S5S4SE5SE5S5S6S6S8S6S6SE7S5S7
1 day agoNE4NE3NE3NE4NE5NE7E4NE4E4E4E3CalmE4CalmCalmCalmE3CalmE3E3E4CalmCalmCalm
2 days agoSW3SW4S6S4S3S4SW3CalmCalmN5N5N6N6N9NE5NE5N3NE4NE4N3CalmCalmNE5E4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Charleston WV (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Charleston, WV
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