Dahlgren, VA Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Dahlgren, VA

June 23, 2024 8:23 PM EDT (00:23 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:44 AM   Sunset 8:38 PM
Moonrise 9:36 PM   Moonset 5:57 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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ANZ536 Tidal Potomac From Indian Head To Cobb Island- 734 Pm Edt Sun Jun 23 2024

.small craft advisory in effect until midnight edt tonight - .

.small craft advisory in effect from 6 am edt Monday through Monday afternoon - .

Tonight - SW winds 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. Numerous showers and scattered tstms this evening, then scattered showers with isolated tstms after midnight. Vsby 1 nm or less this evening.

Mon - NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.

Mon night - NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the evening. Waves 1 ft.

Tue - W winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.

Tue night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.

Wed - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.

Wed night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.

Thu - N winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.

Fri - E winds 5 to 10 kt - .becoming se after midnight. Waves 1 ft.
winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.

ANZ500 734 Pm Edt Sun Jun 23 2024

Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay -
a cold front will move in from the northwest tonight, then pass through the area early Monday. High pressure briefly returns to the waters Tuesday before another cold front crosses Wednesday into Thursday. High pressure returns from the north Friday into Saturday. Small craft advisories are likely Monday into Monday night, and may be needed Tuesday night through Wednesday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Dahlgren, VA
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Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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FXUS61 KLWX 231823 AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 223 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

SYNOPSIS
A cold front will approach from the northwest later this evening bringing with it the chance for a few showers and thunderstorms. The front passes east of the area Monday leading to drier weather and lowering humidity. High pressure briefly returns Tuesday before another surge of excessive heat and humidity Wednesday as high pressure pushes offshore. Another cold front will approach the area late Wednesday into Thursday bringing additional chances for showers and thunderstorms.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Starting to see a few showers pupping up across the forecast area, but they are few and far between at this point. Latest mesoanalysis has anywhere from 250 to 500 J/kg of MLCAPE, and looking at ACARS data from around 18z, there appears to be quite the cap still. Dry air mixing down from aloft and the lingering thick upper-level clouds have both really cut down on the instability today, which is why the showers that are popping up are almost immediately raining themselves out before getting too tall. While there is a decent amount of shear out there, especially along the MD/PA border, just not much to initiate with to tap into it.

With the clouds being as thick as they have been today, it has cut down on our max temperatures a bit as well. Dew points are on track with the forecast, generally being in the mid-upper 60s. This is resulting in heat indices in the upper 90s to around 100. We may struggle to reach advisory criteria east of the Blue Ridge, but it is still hot out there today. Be sure to keep hydrated and take plenty of breaks if you are outdoors today, and try to limit outdoor exposure as much as possible.

In the previous forecast, confidence was decreasing in an organized severe weather and/or flooding rainfall threat today, and the thinking on that has only grown stronger with the afternoon update. Given the current instability values out there, and the fact that dew points should drop a few more degrees, just not seeing much to get things going today. We very well could see a few briefly heavy showers with perhaps some gusty winds, but just struggling to see anything that would scream severe weather today. If we are going to see anything, I think it will be ahead of the fropa later this evening, so kept the higher POPs in that timeframe, though admittedly starting to be less confident in that as well.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
By Monday morning, the surface cold front will be nearly through the area, with any lingering showers and storms quickly exiting southern Maryland. While temperatures will still be a little above normal in the mid 80s to near 90, dew points falling into the 50s and a gusty northwest wind will likely feel refreshing compared to the weekend. A few showers may linger through midday along the Allegheny Front as the primary upper trough axis passes. As the wind abates Monday night, lows will range from the mid 50s in the mountains to 60s in most other places.

The surface high will translate through on Tuesday and move to the southeast Tuesday night. Comfortable dew points in the mid to upper 50s remain through the day, although temperatures will rebound a little to the upper 80s and lower 90s. A light southerly flow and potential clouds will result in a slightly warmer night. There is a slight chance weakened convection from the Ohio Valley makes a run at the Appalachians toward Wednesday morning.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Excessive heat and humidity briefly return Wednesday ahead of a cold front that will bring more widespread chances for showers and thunderstorms across the region.

Overall the synoptic pattern becomes a bit more amplified as high pressure shifts offshore and the next piece of upper level shortwave energy moves south from the Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic region. With high pressure pushing offshore south/southwesterly flow will increase which means a return of the excessive heat and humidity. Temperatures will surge back into the mid to upper 90s with heat index values around or over the 100 degree mark east of the Blue Ridge Wednesday afternoon. Some uncertainty remains in regards to the temperatures due to the progression of the next shortwave trough and incumbent cold front from the Ohio River Valley.

12z synoptic/ensemble guidance suggests the development of convection Wednesday afternoon across the western half of the forecast area before advancing east Wednesday evening into Wednesday night as the cold front sweeps in. Added heat and humidity will allow for increased instability across the region lending a limited potential for severe weather. Current CSU learning machine probabilities and the SPC discussion in the Day 4 timeframe also back up this notion although confidence is medium at this time.
Additional shower and thunderstorm chances are possible especially east of the Blue Ridge Thursday as the front and upper level trough slowly push through the remainder of the area. With that said, extra cloud cover and a front overhead will lead to cooler temperatures in the mid to upper 80s.

Broad high high pressure will return from the north Friday delivering mostly dry conditions, seasonable temperatures, lower humidity, and light onshore flow.The high slides off the New England coast late Friday into Saturday allowing south to southwesterly flow to return along with a warm front from the south. Some uncertainty remains in the placement of this boundary in relation to an area of low pressure tracking across the northern Great Lakes region. For now, opted to hold low end precipitation chances Saturday afternoon and evening especially in areas west of the Blue Ridge. Additional showers and thunderstorms are likely Sunday as the next cold front approaches the region.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR conditions will prevail for the remainder of the day for most terminals. All except MRB and CHO stand the chance for some late afternoon/evening thunderstorms, which is reflected in the latest TAFs. This could bring brief VSBY reductions, should they materialize.

The wind shift to the W/NW with the cold front will occur toward sunrise Monday morning. Gusts up to 25 kt will be possible through the day with a developing cu field. High pressure will result in lighter winds Monday night into Tuesday.

Prevailing VFR conditions are expected Wednesday through Friday.
Showers and thunderstorms may lead to brief restrictions on both Wednesday and Thursday afternoons as a cold front slowly moves through the area. The highest coverage of storms looks to be on Wednesday with activity mainly along and east of the corridor Thursday. Winds will be out of the southwest Wednesday with gusts up to 20 knots. West to northwest winds return in the wake of the front THursday into Friday.

MARINE
SCAs remain in effect for all zones this afternoon in a strong SW flow. Could see some thunderstorms over the waters this afternoon/evening, with the most likely being later in the evening. Should these materialize and become organized, could see some gusty winds, which could result in SMWs.

The cold front will pass through Monday morning with a wind shift to the northwest. The wind forecast has trended upward for Monday, with advisories added for all waters. Gusts of 20-25 kt are likely, with a few gusts to 30 kt not out of the question.
Winds gradually subside Monday night, but advisories will likely continue.

High pressure builds across the area Tuesday, with light west winds becoming southerly by Tuesday night. An SCA may be needed for the bay Tuesday night due to southerly channeling.

Some southerly channeling could occur over the middle and lower waters Wednesday ahead of an approaching cold front from the Ohio River Valley. SCA level winds look to return to portions of the waters Wednesday afternoon into early Thursday as a cold front passes through. Winds will diminish throughout the day Thursday in northwest flow as high pressure builds back into the region. Sub SC- level winds are expected with high pressure Friday.

CLIMATE
Very hot temperatures are expected today, and again on Wednesday next week. Several records could be in jeopardy, as seen below. Below is a list of record high temperatures for Jun 23rd, and 26th, the year the record was set, and the current forecast high temperatures for those days. A plus sign after the date signifies the record was set multiple times, with the most recent year indicated below. RERs are only issued for DCA, IAD, BWI, and MRB, but other sites are shown for reference.

Sunday Jun 23nd Climate Site Record High Forecast High Washington-National (DCA) 98F (1988) 98F Washington-Dulles (IAD) 96F (1988) 98F Baltimore (BWI) 97F (2010) 99F Martinsburg (MRB) 100F (1934) 94F Charlottesville (CHO) 100F (1894) 97F Annapolis (NAK) 98F (1988) 96F Hagerstown (HGR) 98F (1988) 94F

Wednesday Jun 26th Climate Site Record High Forecast High Washington-National (DCA) 101F (1952) 98F Washington-Dulles (IAD) 95F (1998) 98F Baltimore (BWI) 99F (1954+) 98F Martinsburg (MRB) 102F (1943) 92F Charlottesville (CHO) 99F (1998) 98F Annapolis (NAK) 98F (1952) 94F Hagerstown (HGR) 98F (1954+) 95F

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for DCZ001.
MD...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for MDZ003>006-008- 011-013-014-016>018-503>508.
VA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for VAZ029>031- 037>040-050-051-053>057-501-502-505-506-526-527.
WV...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for WVZ052-053.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for ANZ530>534- 537>543.
Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ535-536.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM EDT Monday for ANZ535- 536.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind AirWater WavesinHgDewPt
NCDV2 1 mi66 minSSW 7G13 86°F29.68
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 30 mi66 minSW 15G24
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 32 mi66 minSSW 21G26 79°F29.70
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 36 mi66 minS 16G24 29.70
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 38 mi48 minSW 18G23 84°F 79°F1 ft
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 38 mi54 minS 7 90°F 29.6570°F
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 38 mi66 minSSW 17G26 85°F29.73
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 39 mi66 minSSW 9.9G14 85°F29.66
44042 - Potomac, MD 43 mi54 minSSW 16G19 81°F 82°F2 ft


Wind History for Piney Point, MD
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Airport Reports
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Wind History graph: NYG
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Tide / Current for Dahlgren, Upper Machodoc Creek, Virginia
   
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Dahlgren
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Sun -- 04:38 AM EDT     2.23 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:45 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:56 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 11:13 AM EDT     0.25 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:54 PM EDT     1.73 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:35 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:35 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 11:02 PM EDT     0.15 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Dahlgren, Upper Machodoc Creek, Virginia, Tide feet
12
am
0.5
1
am
0.9
2
am
1.5
3
am
1.9
4
am
2.2
5
am
2.2
6
am
2
7
am
1.6
8
am
1.2
9
am
0.7
10
am
0.4
11
am
0.3
12
pm
0.3
1
pm
0.6
2
pm
1
3
pm
1.4
4
pm
1.6
5
pm
1.7
6
pm
1.6
7
pm
1.3
8
pm
0.9
9
pm
0.5
10
pm
0.3
11
pm
0.2


Tide / Current for Mathias Point, Virginia
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Mathias Point
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Sun -- 05:09 AM EDT     1.52 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:45 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:56 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 12:17 PM EDT     0.11 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:53 PM EDT     1.27 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:35 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:36 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Mathias Point, Virginia, Tide feet
12
am
0.2
1
am
0.4
2
am
0.8
3
am
1.2
4
am
1.4
5
am
1.5
6
am
1.5
7
am
1.2
8
am
1
9
am
0.7
10
am
0.4
11
am
0.2
12
pm
0.1
1
pm
0.2
2
pm
0.4
3
pm
0.7
4
pm
1
5
pm
1.2
6
pm
1.3
7
pm
1.2
8
pm
0.9
9
pm
0.7
10
pm
0.4
11
pm
0.3


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Sterling, VA,




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