Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Stanardsville, VA

KEY MESSAGES
- 1) Very cold conditions are expected over the region through Tuesday night.

- 2) Near-record cold this weekend, along with increasing potential for a significant winter storm.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...Very cold conditions are expected over the region through Tuesday night.

Winds could gust 30 to 40 mph at higher elevations above 3500 feet over the next few hours before diminishing even further.
The reinforcing Arctic front will cross the Mid-Atlantic later this evening to allow for temperatures to fall into the teens by Tuesday morning with single digits at higher elevations.

Combined with a blustery northwest wind, it will feel more like the single digits for much of the area, with wind chills of -10 to -20 at higher elevations (as cold as -30 above 3500 feet in the Alleghenies). Cold Weather headlines remain in place for those areas tonight as a result.

Temperatures struggle to escape the 20s for much of the area Tuesday (teens in the mountains) with perhaps only portions of the central VA piedmont to southern MD poking above freezing for a few hours in the afternoon. It will moderate but remain colder than normal Wednesday ahead of another approaching front.
Main thing to really note on both days outside of the cold temperatures is the very dry nature of the air mass. Some guidance is hinting at RH values in the low teens tomorrow afternoon, then in the 20s on Wednesday. With temps so cold, not necessarily anticipating a wildfire threat, so will not do an explicit fire weather discussion for now. However, if this were a warmer day, especially Tuesday, would be a bit concerning.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Potential continues for possibly significant winter storm this weekend, followed by extremely cold conditions next week.

A potent cold front pushes through the region late Thursday into Friday, followed by a reinforcing Arctic front late Friday into Saturday. This will lead to increasingly cold conditions each day from Thursday through the entire weekend. Well below average temperatures are forecast, especially by Sunday. In addition, some upslope snow showers are possible with each front. Extremely cold temperatures are becoming likely Sunday night into next week, with lows in the single digits and wind chills at or below zero. Near- record low temperatures are possible.

The latest 18Z guidance continues to show the possibility of a significant winter storm across our area this weekend. The trend is that the precipitation is a bit later, a little farther to the north, and the heaviest precipitation over the area Saturday night through Sunday afternoon. The NBM had shown the 48-hour probability for at least 6 inches of snow was 40-60pct, and around 20-30pct for 1 foot of snow. There could be a sharp precipitation gradient with this event as mentioned before on the north side of the storm. Lower snow totals would still be along the MD/PA border but the latest 18z guidance could make this gradient a little farther west into perhaps southwest PA and far western MD.

Previous discussion...
The upper-level pattern becomes quite active in both the northern and southern branches of the jet stream. Models seem to be in at least good agreement regarding the development of a low pressure system that tracks across the southern U.S. A broad area of baroclinic/frontogenetic forcing will develop along the interaction of the Arctic high to the north and deepening low.
Ensemble guidance continues to show an amplified southern stream influence - something we have seen very little of so far this winter (typical of La Nina). The surface low may not escape as easily out to sea given the -NAO block. The nearby steady source of very cold air and the amplified southern stream occurring in tandem are what raise some red flags for significant wintry precipitation potential this weekend.

Depending on where the frontal zone is and where the area of low pressure tracks, there could be significant wintry precipitation this weekend over a large part of the South to Mid-Atlantic CONUS.
The potential is still there for that strong Arctic high pressure to suppress the low pressure system to our south. However, the strengthening upstream blocking pattern could essentially put a floor on how far south the low will track.

It is important to monitor this threat closely this week as the different parts of the system become better sampled by surface and upper air obs.

AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Winds become W to NW late this evening with gusts 20-30 knots behind the Arctic front. Winds will diminish a bit tonight, then pick up again at slightly lower speeds Tuesday, closer to 20-25 knots.

Winds will then turn southerly Wednesday ahead of the next front. This front likely won't bring precipitation to the TAF sites as it crosses Thursday, with another (probably dry) front Friday. These fronts will keep winds elevated at times.

MARINE
Waves of gusty winds will affect the tidal waters through midweek. Winds will become W/NW winds gusting 20-30 kts overnight over the open waters. Additional gustiness is anticipated Tuesday, then turning lighter Tuesday night.

Winds turn southerly with 15-20 kt gusts possible Wednesday ahead of the next approaching front. This front should come through dry, with a secondary (dry) front Friday. Each of these fronts likely bring increases in winds across the waters. SCAs may be needed at several different times through the end of the week as a result.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Tuesday for MDZ008.
Cold Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Tuesday for MDZ501-502- 509-510.
VA...Cold Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Tuesday for VAZ504-507- 508.
Extreme Cold Warning until 1 PM EST Tuesday for VAZ503.
WV...Cold Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Tuesday for WVZ050-055- 502>504-506.
Extreme Cold Warning until 1 PM EST Tuesday for WVZ501-505.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ530>534- 537>543.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ535-536.
Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 6 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ535- 536.