Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Solomons, MD

KEY MESSAGES
1) Gusty thunderstorms are possible this evening.

2) Above average temperatures expected beginning this weekend along with daily shower and thunderstorm chances.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...Gusty thunderstorms are possible this evening.

As of shortly after 9 PM, a line of thunderstorms stretches southwestward along the I-95 corridor from Baltimore to DC, and then further southwestward from there toward Charlottesville.
These storms are moving into an increasingly stable airmass at low-levels, which should lead to a gradual weakening trend in the activity over the next few hours as they move toward southern and far northeastern Maryland, as well as the Fredericksburg area in Virginia. Most locations are experiencing gusts of 20-30 mph as the line of storms moves through, with some pea sized hail also being observed in stronger cores.
A light trailing stratiform rain is lingering behind the initial line of storms for 60-90 minutes in most locations, along with occasional lightning strikes/rumbles of thunder. Lingering showers should clear the I-95 corridor by around Midnight, but may continue for a few hours longer across southern Maryland.

Eventually the system's surface cold front will move through later tonight, causing background winds to shift to out of the northwest. Some patchy fog can't be ruled out in spots during the few hour long window between when the rain stops and when the cold front moves through. Winds will shift to out of the northwest behind the front. The uptick in wind and dry advection behind the front will bring any threat for fog to an end. A few upslope rain showers may also be possible in the Alleghenies later tonight. Low temperatures are forecast to be in the 40s to the northwest of I-95, and then low to mid 50s further southeast.

An upper low will pivot over the northern Mid-Atlantic on Thursday while surface low pressure redevelops over New England. This will result in gusty northwesterly winds and plentiful stratocumulus. Rain showers appear mostly limited to upslope areas in the Alleghenies, but can't totally rule out an isolated shower or sprinkle elsewhere. Temps will be cooler beneath the trough as well, with most lower elevations in the 60s. There could even be a few wet snowflakes mixed in on the high peaks above 4000 feet Thu morning.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Above average temperatures expected beginning this weekend along with daily shower and thunderstorm chances.

Surface high pressure shifts offshore Saturday through early next week with return flow ushering in warmer temperatures. Aloft, upper level ridging slowly builds over the eastern CONUS through mid week.
On Saturday, high temperatures will be in the low to mid 80s for most with higher elevations staying in the mid 70s. Temperatures gradually warm each day with highs soaring into the mid 90s for most on Tuesday.

In addition to high pressure shifting offshore, a cold front slowly approaches the forecast area from the northwest. This will yield daily shower and thunderstorm chances, primarily in the Alleghenies.

AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 9 PM, storms are currently impacting many of the terminals, but should move off to the east over the next couple hours. A wind shift to northwest late at night should assist in improving conditions.

An upper level low will be nearby Thu before moving east Fri. This will likely result in stratocumulus ceilings, with a worst case being MVFR. NW'ly winds will also gust 20 to 25 kt both days.

SW winds on Saw blow 5 to 10 knots with gusts up to 15 knots expected in the morning. Winds become light overnight before shifting to w'ly Sun morning. Winds remain light on Sun, blowing 5 to 10 knots. Primarily VFR conditions are expected both days as precip chances remain low (30% or less).

MARINE
SMWs are ongoing as of 9 PM for portions of the Upper Tidal Potomac and northern portions of the Bay. These storms are expected to weaken as they track further toward the south and east, with additional SMWs appearing unlikely. These storms should move to the east of the waters later tonight. Winds will be lighter for a time tonight before the cold front brings a shift to the NW early Thu morning. The length of this gap is a bit uncertain, but advisories will definitely be needed after sunrise Thu with gusts to 25 kt. Gusty NW winds and advisories will continue into Fri for some if not all waters. Winds fall below SCA criteria by Fri evening.

Winds around 15 knots out of the southwest on Saturday before becoming light overnight. West winds blow 5 to 10 knots over the waters on Sunday. No hazardous marine conditions are expected either day.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Water levels are gradually increasing in gusty s'ly flow ahead of a low pressure system. For the most part, peaks in action stage are expected, with the highest tide occurring tonight. The Stevens ensemble shows the potential for Minor tidal flooding at Annapolis, but other guidance is just below. Expect anomalies to fall thereafter as winds shift to NW'ly.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Thursday for MDZ008.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ530>534- 537>543.