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FXUS66 KSTO 042055 AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 155 PM PDT Wed Oct 4 2023

Synopsis
Dry and warming conditions continue this week. Gusty north winds taper off this evening with additional periods of breezy north winds afterwards. The potential for rain and cooler temperatures returns early next week.

Discussion
This morning saw gusty north winds generally 20 to 35 mph across the Northern Sacramento Valley and west of I-5. These winds will be on a downtrend this afternoon, albeit still elevated through the evening hours. The Pacific ridge has become the dominating feature over Northern California, as the high pressure system pushes into the Pacific Northwest. This will be the general pattern over the next several days, with increasing temperatures, dry conditions, and breezy north winds along I-5 through Thursday morning.

Afternoon temperatures today are expected to reach the upper 80s across the Valley and possible exceeding 90 in the Northern Sacramento Valley near Redding. Temperatures will see another 1-3 degree increase across the Valley through Friday before a slow decline in temperatures through the weekend. NBM forecasts highlight this with a 40-90% probability of exceeding 90 degrees on Thursday and increasing to 55-100% on Friday across the Valley. Conditions do remain dry this afternoon and tomorrow resulting in locally elevated fire weather conditions with afternoon humidities in the upper teens and lows 20s across the Northern Sacramento Valley. However, indices are not expected to reach any critical fire weather threshold. Humidities are expected to slowly increase reducing fire weather concerns. //DA

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Sunday THROUGH Wednesday)...

Upper level troughing will begin to move into the coastal regions of California on Sunday into Monday morning. The parent low will stay off shore and to our northwest and subtle shortwave troughing will move across NorCal. Onshore flow and cooler temperatures will accompany the trough, as well as increased chances of precipitation. Currently, the highest chances of seeing measurable precipitation will remain to the northern Sacramento Valley Monday evening and into Tuesday, with the NBM currently showing 40-60% chances of precipitation for the Coastal Range, Red Bluff, and Redding. Areas further south sit in a 20-40% chance of precip for Monday evening and into Tuesday. Totals will be light, as the NBM shows the chance of receiving rain totals greater that 0.25 inches relatively low around 20% mainly for the northern mountains.

Temperatures during the extended period will start to fall as the shortwave trough moves into the area and promotes onshore flow and lowering of heights. Mid 70s and low 80s can be expected in our area, with cooler 60-70s for higher elevations.

AVIATION

VFR conditions expected over interior NorCal next 24 hours. Local N-E surface winds up to 20 kts and gusts up to 30 kts possible near KRDD and KRBL until 01Z. Other locations, variable surface winds generally less than 8 kts expected.



STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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Bishop Cut
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Wed -- 05:05 AM PDT     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:03 AM PDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 11:29 AM PDT     2.94 feet High Tide
Wed -- 01:09 PM PDT     Moonset
Wed -- 04:16 PM PDT     1.26 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:44 PM PDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:54 PM PDT     3.85 feet High Tide
Wed -- 10:16 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Bishop Cut, Disappointment Slough, San Joaquin River, California, Tide feet

Brandt Bridge
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Wed -- 03:33 AM PDT     -1.14 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 07:03 AM PDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:08 AM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 11:07 AM PDT     0.48 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 01:08 PM PDT     Moonset
Wed -- 01:37 PM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 04:23 PM PDT     -0.43 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 06:43 PM PDT     Sunset
Wed -- 07:00 PM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 09:38 PM PDT     0.64 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 10:16 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Brandt Bridge, San Joaquin River, California Current, knots

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